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Recent content by Hoss Bog

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    Win Probability shifts throughout the Colts-Patriots game

    Check out this game breakdown with how much the Colts' win probability changed throughout the game. No. 1: 4th quarter, 2:08, Peyton Manning completes a 32-yard pass to Bryan Fletcher Colts' Win Probability before play: 17% Colts' Win Probability after play: 58% Impact: 41% Commentary: With...
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    Mathmatical evidence that Schottenheimer hurts the Chargers

    Good point. I know from talking to the author that the model does not have the ability to account for in game success as a win probability factor. That being said, it does take into account over 500,000 NFL plays, including every play from the last six years when a team is punting the ball...
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    Mathmatical evidence that Schottenheimer hurts the Chargers

    Not every play... just 4th downs late in the 4th quarter when a trip to the conference championship may be on the line. What else does he do, other than call useless timeouts, on the sidelines? He doesn't call the plays, so he may as well coach. My guess is that saying something didn't even...
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    Mathmatical evidence that Schottenheimer hurts the Chargers

    Fair enough, I can't sit here and argue that on that particular play, Marty was at fault for not informing the defense because for all I know, he did say something and McCree ignored it. The drops (or even the actual fumble) I don't take issue with because they are physical mistakes, not...
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    Mathmatical evidence that Schottenheimer hurts the Chargers

    The Patriots D, coached by the smartest coach in the game, just allowed a quarterback (playing in the first playoff game of his career) to go 40 yards with no time outs in about 50 seconds to put the Chargers within field goal range. Don't act like it was out of the question.
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    Mathmatical evidence that Schottenheimer hurts the Chargers

    I'm not sure if you looked at the article, but he talks about that as well...4th quarter, 0:08, Schottenheimer decides to kick the field goal with 8 seconds left Commentary: San Diego could have run another offensive play before attempting a game-tying 54 yard field goal. The downside, of...
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    Mathmatical evidence that Schottenheimer hurts the Chargers

    I agree with you that every DB should know that, but my point is more that Marty should have been yelling at the defense of the situation. McCree said after the game that he will try to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, no matter what. To me, that shows Marty hasn't drilled...
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    Mathmatical evidence that Schottenheimer hurts the Chargers

    This article on Protrade.com does an excellent job of breaking down some the big plays from each of the Divisonal Round games in terms of their impact on each team's probability of winning. Reading the article, one thing is clear to me: Marty Schottenheimer does not help his team win big games...
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    So, should have Dallas gone for the 4th and foot?

    The answers to all your "should Dallas have..." questions is in this Protrade.com article. If Dallas gets the first down there, their win probability goes from 85% to 92%. If they make the field goal, win probability goes from 85% to 86%. By failing to do either, the win probability drop to...
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    Week 15 QB math

    Magnus... the projections like Kitna over Favre this weekend, but it is pretty close. If that other link wasn't working, you can go HERE.
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    RIP Lamar Hunt

    RIP... thanks for everything.
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    Week 15 QB math

    So I've run the projection algorithm for quarterbacks in Week 15, and so far nothing sticks out like last week with the Ciatrick Fason over Larry Johnson pick (yeah... I don't really want to talk about it). I'm not trying to blow smoke up anyone backside, these are just one math model's...
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    Ciatrick Fason will outscore Larry Johnson in Week 14

    I was surprised in reading through the board today that more people weren't compelled to rip me for a prediction that may have cost some people a playoff win, but I guess each individual pulls the trigger on their own. As a few people have brought up, projecting big breakout performances takes...
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    Ciatrick Fason will outscore Larry Johnson in Week 14

    Pinner hasn't seen a carry since Week 9 and Fason gets all the looks last week when filling in for the injured Chester Taylor. All reports out of Minnesota were that Fason would get the carries should Taylor not be able to play. And now Pinner is getting all the looks. I will likely lose one...
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    Ciatrick Fason will outscore Larry Johnson in Week 14

    It looks like Childress is going to let Chester decide for himself right before gametime. Dang. If anyone in the Minnesota area has any more info, please let it be known!
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