Recent content by Perfect Tommy

The problem with figuring out just what tiebreaker is fairest is that the season has already played out. It amounts to selecting the playoff teams from the tied teams. It seems clear that the rules are ambiguous. Sure, the rules should not have been ambiguous but they are. At the point only...

How is that not fair to team 3? He expected to play one opponent and he does. Team 3 and team 4 have to play teams with slightly better records than expected but that is trivial.

There is a fair fix. Have teams 5-8 in a four way battle with one team advancing. Have team 3 play team 4. Leave the bye week for teams one and two. Next week team 1 plays the winner of the 5-8 battle and team 2 plays the winner between team 3 and team 4. It is total BS to just take away...

Starting him over Matt Ryan

The Browns can forget about Bridgewater. Jaguars will sign Tebow. Check and mate.

Its not the angle that makes him look fat. Its the fat that makes him look fat.

One big piece of the puzzle still hasn't been mentioned. Is a defense giving up 18-34 points scoring one point plausible? If a team giving up 17 points scores 1 point, then it is not plausible. If one point falls in the gap of what a team giving up 17 points and a team giving up 35 points...

Belichick blew it. He needs to go the for quick TD from the 23 yard line. When they get the TD, go for the 2-pt conversion so they will not have to face overtime and know whether they win with a FG or need another TD. The biggest factor is that if they fail to score the TD on their first few...

Some people are taking the retroactive change of a playoff result far too lightly. If I were the team getting knocked out of the playoffs after the hypothetical seeding change, I would quit the league. It is that severe. No way could you justify giving team #3 two cracks at the win even if it...

You are correct, we cannot know the mean. It is the theoretical expectation of what a player is going to do. It is the challenge of fantasy football to try to estimate what player's means are. It is, however, mathematically significant. That is what "regression to the mean" is, and it is a...

Calbear, I have seen you make many excellent posts in mathematical threads. With all due respect, I have to take issue with this one. It is true that players decline over the aggregate from year to year, but that is not a function of regression to the mean. It is because they actually get...

If people use the reasoning that somebody will do worse for no reason other than a misunderstanding of the concept of "regression to the mean" then you are correct. I am suggesting that when people use that argument, it is shorthand for saying that the player exceeded his expectation based on...

Why would you assume that Chase believes these players "must regress to the mean" as you put it? Is it because you still don't know what "regression to the mean" means? Every year is a new year and different situations arise. If Chase believes that these players exceeded last year's...

If you want to pony up for Foster, I don't like the idea of putting up Tate first. It is better to put Foster up first and see what it takes to get him. If you don't get him you don't have to overpay for Tate. If you do get him, then you know you do want to overpay for Tate if necessary. By...

As some have commented, regression to the mean is a mathematical concept and so is not debatable. The question is what do people mean by "regression to the mean"? I don't think this has been adequately answered yet. Every player has some level of quality to their play. But football is made...