Recent content by travdogg

Seattle is technically 5th in run defense, but 25th in tackling %. To me that means the 5th in run defense, is more about who they faced than them doing a great job. They are 10th in pass rush win rate, and 4th in coverage rate, that all leads me to thinking the run D is the place to attack.

In what world was Rivers pretty bad last time he played? Rivers was in the top-10 in passing yards, completion %, YPA, and top-5 in sack percentage. He was still an above average starter in 2020. I'm not arguing he's still that guy, but calling that "pretty bad" basically means there are like 8...

That I think they'll wear them down a bit, and while he won't be consistently gaining yards, he could break a couple big ones, just off volume.

Nice shutout win for the Vikings last week, though it was the injured Commanders (I still didn't see it coming) and most Vikings fans I know, were mostly upset about losing draft position. McCarthy has been bad this season (no doubt there) but you can still see the tools every week, and last...

This is a bit of a trap game to me. In the CMC thread, I saw a couple "they can beat the Titans without him, let him rest" and I'm not sure I agree with that. I think CMC is needed in this one, especially as the Titans are really bad against RBs out of the backfield. Fannin's big week last week...

They are tied for 1st in NY/A against the pass, I would rather attack the Broncos D on the ground if I were Matt LaFleur, was my point.

Super bold call here...Philip Rivers greatly exceeds expectations and actually is about as good Jones was. Indy has maybe the NFL's best OL, great run game, and a multitude of weapons. Its probably a better supporting cast than Rivers had at any point in the 2010s. I think Alec Pierce can get...

How about those 1st place Carolina Panthers? I expect that to still be the case after Sunday. I think Carolina plays it close to the vest in a game they should lead throughout. I think Rico Dowdle has a nice game (Hubbard will be heavily involved too) and Young avoids turnovers. For the Saints...

This is likely the game that decides a lot of round 1 fantasy playoff matchups. I think this is another statement game for the NFL's best team. I think they make Goff uncomfortable and get to him several times (o/u 4 sacks?) and I think they make they shut down the run for the most part, though...

A battle of 2 teams in the mix for the #1 seed, but both strike me as not as good as their records. I feel more strongly about Denver in that regard. I think the Packers D makes life tough for the Broncos offense and expect this to be a strong Micah Parsons game. I've liked how often the Packers...

This screams Eagles bounce back to me. Raiders are falling apart, and while I actually think it might benefit them for Pickett to be starting (Geno is trying to do too much, and getting himself killed) I don't expect success against this defense. I wouldn't even be all that excited about...

Who wants it less? Battle of 2 teams likely picking in the top-5. I think Washington is able to take advantage of the Giants awful secondary, and Mariota/McLaurin hook up for some big plays. Giants have a bad run D, but Washington has a bad run O. Probably middling production. For the Giants...

I'll admit up front, Buffalo is always the hardest team for me to predict, because so much of their team sucks, but Josh Allen can make magic happen. No player is more valuable to his team. I truly believe if he had gone down for the year in week 1, the Bills would be the Jets. That said, I...

I tend to look at matchups first and foremost, but narratives exist too, and its as simple as this, the Chiefs season is over if they lose, and the Chargers are extremely banged up on offense, and riding high after beating the Eagles. I feel like Vegas feels the same based on the spread. I...

Jet Jaguar is one of my favorite MST3Ks, I always think about that whenever these teams play. 14 feels like a high spread for this Jags team, but the Jets are that bad. Starting Brady Cook, I think the Jets are no lock to top 100 passing yards. Maybe Breece Hall breaks a screen or something...