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About CalBear

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  1. Sure, but overperformance is what wins in fantasy of any kind. And with no pickups in Anarchy, avoiding major injuries is a huge thing as well (bigger than normal leagues). So there's a bunch of luck, too. And frankly there's not a lot of overperformance in that lineup, given that we're talking about a 16-team league. Basically one TE, two QBs, two WRs and a PK. And the QB overperformance, I would argue, is a strategic win; it has always been my belief that TMQB increases the value of late QBs relative to others, because it removes the downside risk.
  2. Final winning tally: QB11 QB14 RB26 RB33 RB58 RB73 WR10 WR15 WR24 WR71 WR154 TE2 TE5 TE9 PK4 PK18 DEF29 DEF32 In case you were wondering how important TEs are in Anarchy.
  3. Golladay and Jones are at least on a par with Kupp and Woods. And Megatron+warm body is better than most receiving corps, and certainly better than what the Rams have right now. Stafford had more years with Megatron (7) than Goff has in the league to date. In 2012 he had Megatron and threw an NFL-record 727 passes and only managed 20 TDs (with 17 INTs).
  4. Stafford has had 13 years to reach the next level. We know what his level is. As for "the team around him," Stafford had the best receiver in the league for most of his career, and some other solid pieces on offense as well.
  5. I'd certainly rather have Goff and a bunch of draft picks. Straight-up, it's a harder call, but Goff has some upside that Stafford doesn't. He's not better than Stafford as of today.
  6. And, of the QBs whose career ANY/A numbers are below Stafford's level, Stafford is almost the only one guaranteed a starting job in 2021. (The only other is Baker Mayfield, who's at 6.30 to Stafford's 6.32 ANY/A).
  7. The argument about Stafford never being selected to a Pro Bowl is about where he ranks relative to other QBs. If you want to use ANY/A as your metric, Stafford has finished in the top 5 in that stat only once in his career (and it was #5, in 2019), and he currently ranks 15th among active QBs. Three spots below Jared Goff, actually.
  8. Uh, Brady was selected to the Pro Bowl 14 times. The only time Stafford appeared was one of the times when Brady, and three other QBs, were selected and declined to play.
  9. We're talking about a QB who hasn't managed to be a first-team Pro Bowl selection even once in his career. To give you a sense of how pathetic that is, here's a sample of some of the other QBs who've made the Pro Bowl more recently than Stafford: Kirk Cousins Ryan Tannehill Mitch Trubisky Carson Wentz Alex Smith Derek Carr Andy Dalton Cam Newton Carson Palmer Teddy Bridgewater Tyrod Taylor Jameis Winston Oh, and Jared Goff.
  10. Wow, that's a bold take on a guy who's made one Pro Bowl in 12 seasons (as the fourth alternate), despite playing more than half of his career with the best receiver in the league.
  11. Top 3 arm? Be serious. He's finished in the top 5 in yards/attempt exactly twice. Here are the stats Stafford has led the league in: Pass attempts (twice) Pass completions (once) Pick-sixes (three times including 2020) Fumbles (once) He's an OK starter. A poor man's Drew Bledsoe. if he were special he would have shown it sometime in the past 12 years.
  12. Hey, Keenan Allen was pretty big. Looking through the recap, it's funny how there aren't a lot of big standout homeruns. Basically, Waller, Jefferson and Anderson, and none of those guys were head and shoulders above the pack, just great values for where I got them. Had good strategy, avoided major injuries and got a little lucky.
  13. Yeah, obviously it's about the contract, but I like the trade from Detroit's perspective more than the Rams. Goff's contract only really guarantees him one year with the Lions; he has a $15M roster bonus due in 2022 and Detroit won't take a big hit if they cut him after the season. So they swap out a decent but not awesome QB for another potentially decent but maybe not awesome QB, get some extra draft picks, and go a different way if 2021 doesn't work out.
  14. This seems like a pretty strong trade for Detroit, actually. Stafford isn't a substantially better player than Goff; Stafford has thrown double-digit INTs almost every year, and hasn't thrown for 30 TDs since 2015. To get two first-round picks for swapping out a QB who wasn't doing much for you anyway is a pretty good deal. Goff takes a downgrade in the receiving corps but not a huge one. He takes a huge downgrade on defense (from maybe #1 to maybe #32) but from a fantasy perspective that's probably a positive for him. The top two receivers in LA had 90+ receptions the past two years
  15. Yes, it's possible that even if he doesn't pull the jersey that Godwin can't get to the pass. Like I said, it's unanswerable. A completion is a Tampa Bay win; an incompletion gives Green Bay a very good shot at winning.
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