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CalBear

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Everything posted by CalBear

  1. Hey, maybe it is my year after all. DET and HOU TMQBs are both going to over-perform (#6 and #11 in week 1). Three TEs and Tyreek Hill and hope the rest can contribute occasionally.
  2. Goff with a bad defense could be a real fantasy performer. That was his life at Cal. He can sling it.
  3. 'I'm focused on myself': Lions quarterback Jared Goff charting his own path in Detroit
  4. Check out the helmet. At Cal he had 80 carries as the #2 RB his freshman year.
  5. I think generally the thing to do would be to come up with some sort of measure of "future expected value over baseline per dollar" with a decaying function over time (because years further out are less certain). Your optimal player is one who currently provides a lot of value over baseline per dollar, whose future production is likely to be as good or better. One thing with auctions is that the baseline you choose is much more important than it is for drafts, because there is a direct effect on VBD points available based on which baseline you choose, and you're calculating value using VBD points available. So you have to tweak those values until they seem reasonable for your league and your personal style. I use explicit point production numbers instead of "baseline = RB24" style, because I want to be explicit about how many points I think a baseline player provides, not rely on whatever the projections are for RB24. Then, you also need to consider that expected point calculations understate the value of top players. Because you have a fixed number of starters, you'd rather have one player getting 100 VBD points than two players getting 50 VBD points each, so the 100 VBD player should cost more than the two 50 VBD players combined. This year I looked at doing a sigmoid function but I ran out of time to get it working in Google Sheets so I did a hacky approximation: VBDA = VBD + ( arbitrary multiplier * ( VBD - ( arbitrary crossover ) ) ) After playing around with it I used arbitrary multiplier = 2.0, and arbitrary crossover = MAX(VBD)/2. So, it's basically "expected value = VBD * (modifier that moves VBD points from crappy players to top players)". Then, Cost = ( Total bid $ available / SUM(VBDA) ) * VBDA [ Cost = this player's proportion of the total VBDA points available ] Note that Total bid $ available should take into consideration your roster requirements; we have 18-player rosters, so everyone is required to spend at least $18, which means bid $ available starts at $984 rather than $1200. So, in my league, McCaffrey had the highest VBD number (153), and the arbitrary crossover was set to MAX(VBD)/2, so 153/2 (76.5). $984 available, total of 9367 VBDA points available (calculated from VBD projections), so McCaffrey had: VBDA = 153 + ( 2.0 * ( 153 - 76.5)) = 306, and Cost = ( $984 / 9384 ) * 306 = $32.09. Because the first calculation is measuring how far you are from the arbitrary crossover, it adds points for players who are well above the crossover and subtracts points for players who are well below. For player who's projected at 76 VBD points, like David Montgomery, VBDA = VBD, while for McCaffrey VBDA= VBD + 153, and for, say, Kareem Hunt, VBDA = VBD - 30. Hunt's 30 points, and others who are below the crossover, are reallocated to players above the crossover. So, all that being said, you can feed in a different number for VBD based on expected future production. Maybe have an annual discount for each player, so a solid young player's expected future value is reduced by 20% per year, while an old guy is reduced by 50%. You may want it to be different for different positions, too, as a valuable QB, for example, probably gets less of a discount than a valuable RB. Let's say you're going to discount QBs by 15% per year, WRs by 20% and RBs by 25%, with accelerators for players over age 28 or something. So, McCaffrey = 307 + 230 + 153 + 76 = 766 [expected VBDA points over 4 years] D.Adams = 276 + 221 + 166 + 111 = 774 Mahomes = 276 + 235 + 194 + 153 = 858 [You could do this calculation with raw VBD if you don't want to go through the weighting calculation for VBDA] So with these assumptions, McCaffrey is clearly the best 2-year contract and Mahomes is clearly the best 4-year contract. At least, that's kind of how I would think about approaching it if I wanted to be quantitative.
  6. It might not be your year when you have two guys who'll miss the start of the season with core muscle injuries. What the hell is that? And one of them's a kicker?
  7. 1.05 Tyreek Hill (WR KC) Drafting from the 5 spot I expected to get a gift from at least one person ahead of me, and there turned out to be two. In Anarchy format RBs just aren't that valuable, and a pair of them went in the first four picks. Dalvin Cook is great but Tyreek Hill outscored him by 100 points last year. Hill has two seasons better than even McCaffrey's ridiculous 2019. And with Sam Darnold at QB in Carolina? Forget about it. 2.10 TJ Hockenson (TE DET) Hard to go wrong taking a TE in Anarchy; 3-TE strategy won it for me last year. Hockenson is clearly in the second tier, but the second tier is still pretty good. His 2020 had him as TE6, within 15 points of Tonyan+Andrews. Plus I get a sideways Cal connection with Goff throwing to him. Would have been Keenan Allen but he went three picks earlier. My other options here were all WRs, but I think I should be able to get something solid at my next pick. There are three good WRBC options (J.Jefferson, Thielen, and Godwin, probably in that order), and another TE is always a possibility. 3.05 Robert Tonyan (TE GB) Another sideways Cal connection, assuming Rodgers plays. He finished as TE4 last year and here he's the 8th TE off the board. A steal; even if his TD production drops, his receptions should rise. 4.10 Noah Fant (TE DEN) I had been thinking about grabbing a WR down here, but there was a huge run on them in round 4 and still some nice options at TE. I debated between Fant and Hunter Henry, and Gesicki (who I had last year) was also in the mix. I think Fant has the biggest upside. He finished as TE11 last year despite scoring just 3 TDs; here he's TE10 off the board. So, TE is done. Gotta start picking up some WRs and RBs. RB is pretty picked over at this point and there are still good WR options, so I'm guessing I'll wind up with a WR at 5.05. 5.05 Kareem Hunt (RB CLE) I'd been hoping to grab one of the PIT WRs but Juju went two picks earlier. I maybe still should have looked at someone like Golladay but the WR pool feels like it's getting down to a bunch of JAGs. That's kind of true of the RB pool, too, but I need to get some RBs at some point. And Hunt actually isn't JAG. His production is limited by the RBBC situation, but if Chubb were to go down, Hunt could put up top-5 RB numbers. So, guaranteed mediocre production, but with some big upside. 6.10 Tyler Boyd (WR CIN) Third-tier WR, he finished as WR33 last year and here he's going as...WR33. Most places are projecting him a little better than that, at the bottom of the WR2 range. I'm hoping for decent production. He was tops on my list after Miles Gaskin who went at 6.02. We're hitting the bottom of the barrel at RB; I'd like to take a shot at Gordon or Ronald Jones as the only real starters left. After that it's all RBBC and I can probably pick up some of that later, so WR otherwise. 7.05 Ronald Jones (RB TB) In Anarchy, Jones isn't going to put up much in the way of numbers. But they say we have to have four RBs. Now that I have two I probably won't take another one for a long time. My homer hope is that Marvin Jones is still around at 8.10. 8.10 Javonte Williams (RB DEN) Jones went just a few picks after 7.05. Williams was #2 on my pre-draft list. Admittedly, this is a little bit of an Otis-style pick, betting on the physical nature of a player rather than really assessing their possibilities. He's definitely starting the season as an actual backup to Gordon, and he's not really a change of pace back. But he could be pretty big if he starts to split the carries with Gordon, or if Melvin goes down. Now with three RBs on board it's very likely I'm drafting WRs for a while. 9.05 Corey Davis (WR NYJ) I'd been interested in Jaylen Waddle but he went right after my last pick. Davis was my second choice. Not a huge upside but he did have almost 1000 yards last year with Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball. He's sitting this low because the Jets are where WRs go to die. With TE+flex full, 3RB and 3WR on board, and the PK run probably starting soon, I may even take a kicker next time. 10.12 Rashod Bateman (WR BAL) A popular sleeper. Maybe he'll be good. Doesn't need to be awesome to make a contribution from the double-digit rounds. The kicker run didn't start yet so I might as well grab some value while I can. 11.05 Nelson Agholor (WR PHI) Only one PK went, so I should have time to pick them up next couple of rounds. I think Agholor is pretty good; only questions are around health and workload. Not bad as my fifth WR, some pretty substantial upside. Next two picks are almost certainly kickers. 12.12 Daniel Carlson (PK LVR) Whatever. He's a kicker. Probably will keep his job all year. 13.05 Will Lutz An unfortunate pre-draft given he'll be missing at least some of the season. But other than that, whatever. He's a kicker. Waiting on an RB, two QBs and two Ds. 14.12 Detroit TMQB Yay, I get one actual Bear. Goff has been inconsistent but when he's on he can do magic. He's at least as good as Stafford. Detroit TMQB finished #21 last year and this is TMQB #26. If he can reproduce Stafford's numbers (4084/26) I'll be happy. And I think there's upside from there. 15.05 Houston TMQB The situation is kind of a mess, but with TMQB you don't have to figure out the situation. Tyrod Taylor during his good Buffalo days wound up in the top half of the league in fantasy scoring; if this ends up as QB16 it'd be a steal. 16.12 Philadelphia DEF I really haven't scouted defenses, especially this low. So I really know nothing about the Eagles. But this fits with my general theory of defenses in Anarchy, which is that you can get them super-cheap and they almost always outperform their draft position if you wait until the end. 17.05 Atlanta DEF See 16.12. 18.12 Patrick Laird (RB MIA) Down here there's only crapshoots left, so I might as well go full-on homer. I like Laird, he reminds me a bit of Justin Forsett, not a flashy guy, but a little bit elusive, a little bit hard to tackle, gets the yards that are there. He may not even make the roster and he needs an injury ahead of him to put up any real points. But he caught Tua's first NFL completion so that's something.
  8. Thanks all, it's good. Tibial nail inserted, overnight stay, but back home now and things feel pretty good, considering.
  9. I'm gonna be incommunicado today (broken leg, surgery). Tried to pre-draft the next two rounds but if it sticks that's why.
  10. Yeah, except for the academic fraud and defending rapists and stuff.
  11. One way you can deal with that is to put the players you actually want to draft on your pre-draft list.
  12. Can someone verify that Anarchy99 set the league scoring correctly?
  13. I like #5. Close enough to the top that I'll get to cash in on inefficiency ahead of me, close enough to the turn that mid-round choices are still tactical. Onwards to being Anarchy 2's first repeat champion.
  14. The defending champ for the best league (Anarchy 2) is in.
  15. Sure, but overperformance is what wins in fantasy of any kind. And with no pickups in Anarchy, avoiding major injuries is a huge thing as well (bigger than normal leagues). So there's a bunch of luck, too. And frankly there's not a lot of overperformance in that lineup, given that we're talking about a 16-team league. Basically one TE, two QBs, two WRs and a PK. And the QB overperformance, I would argue, is a strategic win; it has always been my belief that TMQB increases the value of late QBs relative to others, because it removes the downside risk.
  16. Final winning tally: QB11 QB14 RB26 RB33 RB58 RB73 WR10 WR15 WR24 WR71 WR154 TE2 TE5 TE9 PK4 PK18 DEF29 DEF32 In case you were wondering how important TEs are in Anarchy.
  17. Golladay and Jones are at least on a par with Kupp and Woods. And Megatron+warm body is better than most receiving corps, and certainly better than what the Rams have right now. Stafford had more years with Megatron (7) than Goff has in the league to date. In 2012 he had Megatron and threw an NFL-record 727 passes and only managed 20 TDs (with 17 INTs).
  18. Stafford has had 13 years to reach the next level. We know what his level is. As for "the team around him," Stafford had the best receiver in the league for most of his career, and some other solid pieces on offense as well.
  19. I'd certainly rather have Goff and a bunch of draft picks. Straight-up, it's a harder call, but Goff has some upside that Stafford doesn't. He's not better than Stafford as of today.
  20. And, of the QBs whose career ANY/A numbers are below Stafford's level, Stafford is almost the only one guaranteed a starting job in 2021. (The only other is Baker Mayfield, who's at 6.30 to Stafford's 6.32 ANY/A).
  21. The argument about Stafford never being selected to a Pro Bowl is about where he ranks relative to other QBs. If you want to use ANY/A as your metric, Stafford has finished in the top 5 in that stat only once in his career (and it was #5, in 2019), and he currently ranks 15th among active QBs. Three spots below Jared Goff, actually.
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