Lehigh98

I wouldn't double up. A bunch of us got knocked out last year with Rams -17 vs Jets so you never know. Plus you'll have an entry with ARI still left to use when most other entries won't.

Congrats to everyone for moving on. A bunch of good options this week so time to curse myself by looking ahead to see what teams I should hold for tougher weeks. Of course injuries will happen and things will change (look at Russ Wilson) so nothing set in stone... (Already used: TB, CLE, DEN, BUF, NE, DEN) Week 7: ARI -17 v HOU Week 8: KC -13.5 v NYG Week 9: MIA -9 v HOU (not looking as good after this week, next best option NO -7.5 v ATL) Week 10: PIT -9 v DET Week 11: TEN -11 v HOU Week 12: DAL -6.5 v LV (Tougher week, other option TB -6.5 @ IND already used, -3.5 games after that) Week 13: LAR -15 v JAX Week 14: GB -9.5 v CHI Week 15: SF -7 v ATL (BUF, ARI, TB better options but used already) Week 16: LAC -11 @ HOU Week 17: SEA (w/ Russ back) -10.5 v DET Week 18: BAL -6.5 v PIT

Like an @offdee scale 5 or a regular 5?

"Trust the Process"

Rams Pros: Long week off with 10 days rest, Giants injuries (Barkley, Jones?) Rams Cons: Away game on east coast, better future value Colts Pros: Home, less future value than Rams Colts Cons: Short week off with 6 days rest, QB performance uncertainty (Wentz & Davis) Had to get the pick in by noon and went Colts but already second-guessing. I'm picking against the Texans for the 4th time in 6 weeks (CLE, BUF, NE, IND) and may be going to the well once too often.

Best Bets per Survivor Grid: TB @ PHI - EV 1.08 - WP 70.9% - PP 3.1% - FBGGP +7 - Trap Alert below BUF @ TEN - EV 1.06 - WP 68.6% - PP 1.1% - FBGGP +5 - Trap Alert below KC @ WAS - EV 1.02 - WP 72.1% - PP 13.2% - FBGGP +4 - Away and could be closer than expected. IND vs HOU - EV 1.01 - WP 79.1% - PP 32.7% - FBGGP +9.5 - Picking against HOU seems smart but has made me sweat a couple so far. PIT vs SEA - EV 1.01 - WP 67.4% - PP 3.8% - FBGGP +5 - Trap Alert below LAR @ NYG - EV 0.99 - WP 78.8% - PP 35.3% - FBGGP +9.5 - Trap Alert below, getting knocked out with them vs tanking for Trevor Jets last year still has me gun-shy. GB @ CHI - EV 0.98 - WP 64.7% - PP 3.2% - FBGGP +5 - Trap Alert below I think I'm between IND and LAR here. Lots more future value with LAR so I think I'm going with IND. ETA: Just realized IND coming off a short week while LAR coming off a long week, may change my mind...

When staying that long you have to head downtown for a while. I make sure to get down there for a while every trip if just for some cheap gambling (Downtown Grand is a good stop for that, and Pizza Rock is nearby) and to see what Derek Stevens is up to nowadays (you have to check out Circa). The Griffin and the DCR are great. There's a secret door at DCR (or at least there was) so don't get discouraged if it looks closed. (Evel Pie is down that way and worth a stop if you didn't already hit Pizza Rock)

The Bouchon french toast was probably my favorite meal in the world but they stopped making it years ago. Even worse, they now do not serve breakfast every day. They only serve "brunch" Friday - Sunday: 8am-2pm so don't bother showing up for breakfast on a weekday.

Anyone else play a tournament over Columbus Day weekend? We were at the Explorer Cup in SE PA. Two x four team brackets, standard you play everyone in your bracket and top team from each advances. First game on Saturday we played a team in our league that we had lost to 6-4 a few weeks ago. Our GK had a horrific day and that game was well out of the usual 2-1 scores we've been a part of in the league so far. Both teams had a couple good chances but the game ended in a surprising 0-0 draw. Second game on Saturday we played a team that had won their first game 5-3. Ended up winning that one 3-1 and we were tied at the top of the group with the team we tied who also won but we held the tiebreaker (H2H, then goals allowed). We would automatically advance with a 3-0 win (max out with 6 pts for win, 3 pts for goals, 1 pt for SO) and we're playing a team that lost both of their games so of course we give up the first goal. We score next 2 and are up 2-1. The other teams are playing one field over and I lost track and they're either at 2-1 or tied at 2-2 so we're good if we win. So of course, we overcommit on a free kick with <5 mins left (not sure why we weren't parking the bus or at least had more than 2 defenders back) and give up a late goal to finish with a 2-2 draw so we think we're out. Fortunately, the other game ended 2-2 so we back into the final. The other team in the final went 3-0-0 in their bracket. We score first 2 but then the tides turn and they start outplaying us. They score just before half to make it 2-1. Then the score just after half to tie it up. Back and forth with them still outplaying us a bit but then we get a sweet goal on a hard cross and one-timer into the back of the net. Winners at 3-2. Backed into a nice finish and our biggest GotSoccer point score (+2738) of the year. We got a couple of our injured defenders back so my son started at mid for all the games. Ended up staying on and getting shifted back to defense a couple times when subs were made and left on for most of the final. He doesn't stand out but he's been pretty solid making good, quick decisions and it seems like the coach prefers to have him / keep him out there when it matters which is good.

Congrats! You are also now #1 on the "Top Scores This Season" by 48 points! I was barely holding onto 1st in my satellite league and just got bumped to #2 this week.

Jealous about Circa, it was sold out when I was there so I couldn't stay but I did visit on Sunday of week 1 @ 1:00 for football and it was crazy. I wanted to check out Stadium Swim but they were charging a cover of $100 for non-guests. You'll have to let me know what you think. Stayed at the Hilton at Resorts World 9/12-9/15. If you want an in depth review, Five Hundy by Midnight podcast stayed there and only there for a weekend and tried to hit all the bars and restaurants and did a full review podcast, was actually broken up into two pods: Part I, Part II. Cliff notes version: I heard people comment that it reminded them more of a mall than a casino and I guess that's true, but as a child of the 80's I like malls. I was surprised they were charging premium Vegas prices for everything when they are a little off the beaten path and I would have thought they would be a little lower trying to lure people north. With the high prices, the quality was just ok so some stuff didn't seem worth it. I was there for a trade show at the convention center so that's why I stayed at that location. I was there solo so didn't hit any of the clubs or nicer restaurants. I really liked "Suns Out, Buns Out" and hit that for a breakfast sandwich and donut each of the mornings on the way to the show. I actually just ate tacos across the street or at other places (Yardbird, Secret Pizza, Crack Shack) while I was out and about. The one thing that pissed me off is they have a sportsbook / sports bar there that always seemed to have a minimum spend to sit at a table. No problem for a group but sucks when you're solo. They wouldn't make an exception for me as a hotel guest when there were a bunch of empty tables. My only option was to sit at the bar and balance my food on the video poker machine which I declined to do. I didn't really gamble there except for checking out the poker room on the last night but it was pretty dead with only a few table running, they said it gets busier on weekends but that was a Tuesday. They did have some issues with check in through the Hilton app and then room cards working. I had to get a new card or help almost every day. Also, I came back from the Raiders-Ravens game to find a stream of water running down the main light fixture and people mopping up and trying to stay ahead of the water by the Hilton elevators and they were shut down for the next couple days at least (still off when I left). We had to go over to the Conrad elevators, go up to our floor, and then walk back over to the Hilton section. I think they said it was a leak in the fire extinguisher system.

Best Bets per Survivor Grid: TB vs MIA - EV 1.06 - WP 79.6% - PP 20.5% - FBGGP +11 - I already used in W1 MIN vs DET - EV 1.03 - WP 77.4% - PP 18.0% - FBGGP +10 - Trap alert? (see below) NE @ HOU - EV 1.02 - WP 77.2% - PP 20.8% - FBGGP +7 - Away but I like the Belichick vs young (& not great) QB aspect, worried about covid cases on the line though. BAL vs IND - EV 1.01 - WP 72.6% - PP 7.7% - FBGGP +4.5 - Monday Night Football. Phantom future value for BAL? But is IND righting the ship? Trap alert (see below) ARI vs SF - EV 0.98 - WP 68.3% - PP 0.9% - FBGGP +6 - Better places to use ARI than against SF LV vs CHI - EV 0.96 - WP 68.0% - PP 3.5% - FBGGP +7.5 - Not much future value, LV slow starts and higher unpredictability factor with Fields make me nervous, trap alert (see below) DAL vs NYG - EV 0.96 - WP 73.5% - PP 19.3% - FBGGP +11 - NFC East matchup, trap alert (see below) Dallas can be unpredictable and Saquon rounding back into form? Would like to get more news on the Patriots before picking but my pick is due at noon today so going with them.

For a pop-y love song, I've always appreciated the ominous turn halfway through the first line of the song... She says her love for me could never die... but that'd change if she ever found out about you and I.

Got the 5 TD's, but this wasn't as fun as I was hoping. Maybe it was being pissed from all the penalties.

Was at the game and my kids ~10 game win streak finally came to an end, this was the first Eagles loss they've been to. It was fun while it lasted. I have never been more frustrated by penalties in a game. It felt like every time we were goal to go, we're getting flagged and moving back. We'd finally have KC in a 3rd and 6 instead of a 3rd and 1, neutral zone infraction... 3rd and 1. THREE TD's called back. I don't know if I'd say this was winnable w/o the penalties but we'd at least have been in the game at the end. I'm still really not sure what this team is and what they can do at this point but disciplined they are not.