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Everything posted by Brisco54

  1. I just watched every Dez drop from 2017 in the montage. I also watched another video of every other incompletion. Originally I was meh about Dez' chances in New Orleans. After watching those videos and then comparing them to the Dez catches from earlier, the biggest difference I saw was that the ball placement and speed were very inconsistent under Dak. Dez looked pretty consistent. Yes, his physicality after the catch was lower... and his YAC plummeted, but that was more because he was constantly adjusting to the ball placement. On almost every single one of his catches and misses, the ball was behind him or he had to slow down for it. Now part of this was inconsistent route running, but apparently Dez finally worked on that this offseason. On him being unemployed for the first 9 weeks, that does not carry as much weight for me.... there are now multiple tweets about him getting other offers. I think he decided up front that he would only play for a legitimate SB Contender... he kicked the tires on teams with new rookie QBs and decided they were not right for him. The teams he wanted to join (probably Pats, Rams, Steelers, Pack, Philly and Saints) were not interested in him. Plus it appears he went through some major depression last month probably the result of the Pats passing on him... combine those two and you can see the genesis of the Comment "We aren't sure if Dez wants to play football." One thing about Payton... he knows exactly what he is looking for, and doesn't let other factors distract him.. (e.g. When he met with Kamara, all they had him do was run routes as a receiver.) If he decided to sign Dez at this point, it means the guy who showed up for the tryout said and did all the things that Payton wants him to do and say. Bottom Line - is Dez the same WR he was in 2014?... of course not. He has lost some speed, physicality and hand strength. However, in my opinion, he has not lost as much as most think. Dez has been humbled by the process, but may come out better as a result thanks to the stewardship of Brees and Payton. Not sure what to think about his value this year (so I wont try to predict it), but I think that he could return to being a consistent fantasy performer next year... just not elite any more. Ceiling = WR12-16, floor = valueless, probably return = WR22-26 overall next two years. Just my two cents.
  2. Things look bleak for me. I am slightly (0.35) below the cut line and have only George Kittle (-2.6) going tonight. If he does not play (Questionable) or comes up small, I am toast.
  3. The Saints timeshare is a unique one. Kamara makes Ingram better. Week 1-4 last year Ingram averaged 10.6 PPR points a week... after Kamara became a fixture in the backfield (weeks 6-16 (I never consider week 17 stats)), he averaged 21.1 PPR PPG. So Happy to have him back!
  4. I have used 24 of 30 and $209 of $250 so surprisingly close to you. Here's hoping a lot of Saints based teams get knocked out this week. Otherwise, they are looking very hard to beat.
  5. I wish the Bengals could trade for a right tackle.... or a right guard for that matter (since they wont play Westerman). I agree with Max Power that an Abdullah trade to the niners would be nice.... or maybe a CJ Anderson trade to the niners. I also wish the Jags would trade Keelan Cole to the Cowboys or Colts.
  6. Take a look at the other end of the list. I find it very interesting that of the bottom ten scores ever, 6 are currently in the NFL.
  7. Well gee... you didn't post the answer, but you did make sure that no one is going to guess some privileged kid from a top school.
  8. How about another "Who am I?" within a "Who am I?" Besides Ryan Fitzpatrick, name the current NFL player, position, & school that is tied for the #3 all time score on the wonderlic (of the scores released by the company that runs the test)? Here are the top 2 and the others tied at #3: 1. Pat McInally 50 Punter, Harvard 2. Mike Mamula 49 Linebacker - Boston College 3. (Tie) Ryan Fitzpatrick 48 Quarterback - Harvard 3. (Tie) Greg McElroy 48 QB - Alabama 3. (Tie) Kevin Curtis 48 WR - Utah 3. (Tie) ???????? 48 ??????? NO CHEATING. If you know, AND DIDNT CHEAT, then just pick a given stat from a given year to show you knew the answer... such as, "He had 75 tackles in 2012." (note that is only an example and not a stat for the actual correct answer).
  9. The fact that these guesses were all legitimate combined with the OP that folks like Brady, Wilson, & Rodgers have been underwhelming supports the idea that this was the right year to wait on drafting a QB. I just went back and looked at this sites preseason draft kit rankings and only 5 their top 12 (QB1) ranked QBs are currently in the top 12, and none of their preseason top 12 are currently in the top 5 QBs right now.
  10. While the specific assertion that athletes have different admissions standards is correct, the implication that the standard is only that they "can't be total academic basket cases" is very misleading. Check out this article: http://www.tier1athletics.org/2013/03/22/harvard-academic-standards-for-athletes/ It identifies the "typical" Harvard athlete as having a 210 Academic index score which would involve a 30 ACT/2040 SAT, and states that a rise in general admission policies forces a rise in athlete admission policies as well. A conflation of the stats and examples they provide is that to get into Harvard as an athlete, you still need to be in the top 15-20% of all college applicants.in terms of your academic file.
  11. Sorry, as noted, I did not look at the first week of highlights, just the last three.
  12. First, how he compares to the rest of the NFL is not relevant. It only matters how he compares to the guy that replaces him. Allen has a 3.0 YPC despite facing nickel and dime defenses for most of his carries. Collins has 3.8 YPC despite facing 7 and 8 in the box on most of his runs. These are not small sample size anomalies. Collins has consistently been over a half yard better per carry than Allen on the Ravens. I just went back and watched the highlights on nfl.com of the last three games. I only saw one play that went more than 12 yards with Allen on the field. All the rest of the long plays came with Collins opening up the field by causing the safeties to cheat up. This despite the fact that I think Aleen has out touched Collins on the year. You don't think Collins has talent. You might be right. But the film shows that the defenses respect him a lot more than Allen, and that opens up the passing game. So the choice is: 1. An offense that cant run at all and cant pass more than 12 yards, but protects the ball. 2. An offense that can both run and effectively throw deep, but coughs up the ball once every third game. Second, Fitz being replaced by Winston is not a good example at all because he was the established back up only getting the start at the beginning of the season because of the suspension. Collins is the established starter getting benched twice for single mistake in games for a player the management thought was less talented. If you want a fair comp, you have to ask why Fitz was not benched for whoever the 3rd string QB was after his second pick vs Pitt.
  13. It seems like facing weaker defenses really hurts Cole. Every D has one good cover guy, right? Bortles is not addicted to him like some QBs are to their WR1s, so when the one good cover guy is on Cole, Bortles looks elsewhere rather than give Cole a chance to make a play. Against stronger defenses, which have multiple good cover guys, Bortles is more likely to look Cole's way I think. Just a theory.
  14. Yesterday was an up and down tragedy for Collins owners. First you see him get the call on a short yardage TD pass and then he actually gets a goal line carry. Saints be praised! Harbaugh is going to start using him as a bell cow back!... but before you can even celebrate this news, Collins fumbles at the goal line. He probably needs to go a full 6 games without even the shadow of a fumble before he gets another goal line carry. I will never understand that, BTW. If Favre had been benched after every stupid INT you would have converted a HoF QB to a journeyman at best.
  15. I did clarify on that didn't I? I said "I am not saying Collins is as good as Green... not even close.." Not sure I get how this can be called "hype." My comment was more about the weakness of Allen than the strength of Collins.
  16. Great work! Ok, I used a very vague term How about I somewhat arbitrarily pick 10 PPR points a week? I do not know about you, but I would never give up something of value to add a WR in redraft that was going to average less than 10 PPG in PPR. Just eyeballing your list, it looks like four WR (Chambers (11.45/11.6), Chandler (13.9), Branch (13.5) & Lloyd (13.5) out of the 26 listed reached the 10 PPR PPG level. That's a 15% hit rate. (BTW, Harvin just missed the 10 PPG average as well). As a Dez owner this makes me very fearful. If I was a Gordon owner, I think I would move him the second he catches 3 or more balls from Brady.
  17. Williams isn't alone. Randy Moss only caught 13 passes after being traded to Minn mid-season. He was cut for criticizing the management, but 13 catches in two months shows how hard it is to adjust to a new system and QB at the same time. Even hall of famer Cris Carter did not perform his first year when he was added by the Vikings after the preseason. Most recently, Corey Coleman sure bottomed out quickly in Buff. Percy Harvin is a noted exception... thanks for that Spodog. A good case study might be Keenan McCardell. After an 84-1174-8 performance in 2003 three he was traded midseason and in the 7 games afterwards, he went 31-393-1. That's ok stats I guess, but then realize that his yards per game dropped by 20 yards, his TDs per game dropped from 1 per 2 to 1 per 7, and most importantly, he had the worst catch percentage of his career not counting his rookie year, dropping 7 percentage points from the year before.
  18. I asked this question in the Dez Bryant thread, but have not gotten an answer yet, so I thought I would put it out in its own thread since it also affects Gordon. Can anyone think of a WR that was added to an NFL organization after week one of the NFL season that had a fantasy significant season afterwards? The player might have been acquired by trade or FA signing (as long as that signing was not off of that team's practice squad). My hypothesis is that WR is the worst position for plug and play, that the learning curve of a new offense as well as no prior experience with a given QB's timing makes it very difficult for a WR to contribute to his new team mid season, and so far I cannot find anything to refute that. If you can think of anything, please help.
  19. Oddly, after this week, the week I am most likely to bench Collins is on the road at Cleveland, the matchup you list has as the most favorable. That said, I think this is a big week for Collins and his future. I am still a believer in his talent, but if he gets fewer than 15 touches this week, then he is probably not a startable asset until he puts a couple of big weeks up in a row. I agree with the others that he is a victim of misuse by Morningweg/Harbaugh. As a Bengals fan, I watched every second of the last game, and I sure felt relief whenever I saw Buck Allen in the backfield. Collins was the Ravens' Mixon... when he was not in the game the whole offense slowed down. Allen had a 1.3 YPC and even counting his receiving, he had less than 5 yards per touch. Meanwhile, facing the same DEF, Collins had almost 4 YPC and 7.5 yards per touch. I get that he has a fumbling issue, but to me, I would rather have an RB that gets 4 YPC and puts the ball on the ground every other game than one that gets 2.5 YPC and never fumbles. Just like I would rather have a Favre, that throws for 350 a game with a pick or two each game, then say, a Dilfer, who throws for 180 a game and zero picks. Benching him for fumbling and playing Allen would be like the Bengals benching AJ Green because of his fumbles (twice in week one) and starting Boyd. I am not saying Collins is as good as Green... not even close... but the talent difference from Collins to Allen is at least as big as the talent delta from Green to Boyd.
  20. For those of you, like me, that still have Dez filling a dynasty bench roster slot, how much longer will you wait before swapping him out for some prospect? I think the emergence of Landry as a team leader has made the Browns rethink adding Bryant. They do not want to change that locker room dynamic. It seems to me that history says Bryant's whole plan of a prove it season is now doomed to failure. Even if a key WR gets injured and he is signed, its very hard for a QB and WR to get timing right in the middle of the season. WR may be the position that is least able to plug and play new guys from outside the organization. Personally, I can not think of a single wide receiver that was added to an organization after week one that went on to be a significant contributor that season. (Maybe Josh Gordon will prove to be an exception.) Not even Cris Carter did much his first season with the Vikings and he was added prior to week one. Honest question... can anyone else think of one?... a WR that was added to a team after week one by trade or FA signing that went on to be a significant contributor that season? I am thinking that if he does not sign in the next week, the only option left for him will be a return to the Cowboys, and we all know the chance of that happening.
  21. Maybe. Maybe not. The Bengals focused on four things this offseason: 1. Get pressure on the QB 2. Stop the run 3. Protect Dalton 4. Win the turnover battle by creating big plays on defense. With the exception of winning the turnover battle in the Colts game (it was a tie), the Bengals have accomplished all four goals both games... and the other opponents for the Colts and ravens accomplished none of the four goals, except the Skins won the turnover battle versus the Colts. Ravens versus Bills -117 yards rushing (3.4 avg), got 6 sacks, gave up 2 sacks; got 2 turnovers, gave 1 Ravens vs Bengals - 66 yards rushing (3.0 avg), got 0 sacks, gave up 4 sacks, got 0 turnovers, gave up 3 Colts versus Skins - 104 yards rushing (3.7 avg), got 3 sacks, gave up 1, got 1 TO gave up 2 Colts versus Bengals -- 75 yards rushing (3.4 avg), 2 sacks each way, 2 tos each way So after 2 games Bengals opponents are rushing for 64% of the yards, getting 22% as many sacks (2 vs 9), giving up 100% more sacks (3 vs 6), and did worse in the TO battle (3 each way vs got 2 gave up 5). Maybe smoke and mirrors, but quite a coincidence that this mirage marries up with their offseason priorities. I have no idea how deep the Steelers struggles actually are. As folks have pointed out, they have pulled away from the brink of collapse many times in the past... and year in and year out it is a very safe prediction to say that the Bengals will fold, but maybe, just maybe, this year you might be wrong. Full disclosure - lifelong Bengals fan who keeps going back for more KoolAid. Final side note - the Bengals are half way through the four games they must play without their best linebacker and 2d best defender due to suspension.
  22. This approach falls apart if you don't even look downfield first and throw it there once in a while. When you don't do that, the safeties and eventually even the CBs starting cheating up... and that is what led to both the dump offs losing their effectiveness and the final Pick.
  23. Exactly this! I watched carr's helmet each play of the second half and it was snapping right to the dump off guy as soon as he looked up. He did not want to even look to see if a downfield option was open. As a Cooper owner, I am hoping that this is the product of fear of the Rams pass rush... BUT, I suspect that it is because Crabtree is gone, and Carr does not have trust in any of his WR, but especially not Cooper. Of Cooper's 4 targets (counting the penalty target) I think only one was with Cooper more than 8 yards downfield, and only one was with a defender within 3 yards of Cooper at the time of release. If Gruden does not change this quickly, I fear Amari may drop to the status of barely rosterable.
  24. I think "Diaz" was an autocorrect of "DJax"
  25. Huh... I read his post (I now see incorrectly) as predicting that NO was calling to ask for an RB. Unless the preseason was a mirage (and it might be), Jeremy Hill, an LSU alum, might be a nice add by the Saints for an RB4.
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