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IvanKaramazov

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IvanKaramazov last won the day on October 19

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  1. We've spent the better part of the past two years criticizing China for stonewalling investigations into the origins of the pandemic, but at this point can anybody really say with a straight face that our NIH and MSM have been demonstrably better?
  2. I strongly disagree with this one. Setting aside the consideration of the Fed being independent of the administration (which I know folks will dispute), it's not in Biden's interest to have inflation running rampant in 2024. It's not like we're talking about 1983-level interest rates or anything like that. More like 1990s-level.
  3. I wonder if Apoorva Mandavilli (NYT's lead covid-19 reporter) still thinks that a lab leak is just a racist conspiracy theory. And I wonder if there will be any consequences for spreading misinformation and prioritizing ideology over getting the facts right. (Just kidding on that second sentence. Of course there won't be consequences.)
  4. Yeah, he was out of it. And had to be helped off the field -- he couldn't stand up on his own power at first.
  5. That's 100% a concussion. No way does Mahomes come back into this game. (Arguably he shouldn't have been on the field at that point in the first place).
  6. I don't get it either. Their defense sucks and it's not surprising to see Tennessee truck them up and down the field, but TEN's defense is nothing scary either and how the hell have the Chiefs not put up points?
  7. Yes, but our elected leaders understand that and I'm sure they'll exercise more fiscal discipline since that's the responsible thing to do.
  8. There's also this: https://www.npr.org/2021/07/11/1014967344/latino-voters-are-leaving-the-democratic-party It's one election cycle so let's take this with a grain of salt, but the Democratic party has become something that isn't particularly appealing to Latino voters. In principle, Republicans could do really well with this bloc if they can just stop being jerks on racial issues (unlikely) or if Latinos get re-coded as "white" the same way that the Irish and Italians did (pretty likely to happen in my lifetime IMO).
  9. I remember when he first lied about this back in May or something, and I was kind of amazed that it got buried. I know that it was Rand Paul and so that kind of gave certain people an excuse to look the other way, but the guy in charge of our pandemic response nakedly and obviously lied to Congress about the US government's role in facilitating GOF research at WIV. That's a really big deal. It's the kind of thing that in a different, more serious era would have set off massive alarm bells for people in the press to dig a little deeper. Instead it just got memory-holed. This latest development will also go down the memory hole because too many people in the legacy media are too invested in a particular narrative to deviate now. For the record, if you had told me in 2018 that US scientists were collaborating with their Chinese counterparts to study SARS-adjacent viruses, and that that some of their projects included gain-of-function research, I wouldn't have batted an eye at that. I'm not interested in MMQBing decisions made by Fauci and the NIH that were well-intentioned but probably turned out very badly for humanity. But it would be nice to live in a world where people don't just set their credibility on fire and continue to be lionized by the folks who are supposed to be watchdogs. I mean, what the actual hell?
  10. I actually thought that having a kind-of-normal president would have given the media an opportunity to walk back the overt partisanship that broke out in 2016, but nope. They just doubled down. You and I don't agree on Trump, but the state of the media and other formerly-elite institutions is embarrassing and unbefitting a country that still considers itself a world power.
  11. I have no idea who you are, but [icon] is a solid poster. Take this sort of thing elsewhere.
  12. Well, I said above that I think Trump is something like 60-65% likely to win against Biden in a rematch, so you and I are not that far off. It would be ludicrous to say that Trump is definitely going to win. My point is that @timschochet is being kind of ludicrous in saying that he'll definitely lose. Trump has already shown once that's he's perfectly capable of beating a weak opponent. If the election were held next week, Biden would definitely qualify as a "weak opponent." Putting a cognitively feeble, ineffective Biden up against Trump and just assuming that everybody will get on board because Trump is so obviously bad is pretty much the same "lesser of two evils" strategy the Democrats followed in 2016. It seems like if folks were genuinely worried about what a second Trump term might look like -- I certainly am -- we might take the 2024 election a little more seriously this time.
  13. 2016: "Trump can't win." Result: Trump wins. 2020: "Trump can't win." Result: Trump loses, but comes disturbingly close to winning. 2024: "Trump can't win." It's like some of you people are allergic to seeing the world as it actually is.
  14. This is kind of what I thought in 2020. I was wrong and updated my priors.
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