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heropretend

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About heropretend

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  1. Pretty sound advice again, but I feel some of your posts seem like you are suggesting that everyone needs to go ALL IN on energy stocks. Sure you can average down and look good in 10 years, but you're managing millions. Individual investors can't afford to average down stocks until they're long term investments without going significantly overweight. If the energy market goes lower or just stays low for longer than anyone anticipates than the guy with 10k in a rothira buys XOM and is just a few bad months before they sell XOM at a 30% haircut to buy up some USO cause they didn't like that th
  2. You must be hanging around some serious fans. I only have a handful of friends with the watch and they love Apple. Most people that buy iPhones do so because they are a good, easy-to-use product that they are familiar with, not because they are running a status ladder against other Apple users. If the watch does well it's going to be for the same reasons.Watches can already be luxury status symbols. If that's important to you, you aren't buying an Apple Watch. iPhones are priced around $650 and a great upper end budget Moto G 3rd gen is $220. I don't want to talk contracts or anything and upgr
  3. You must be hanging around some serious fans. I only have a handful of friends with the watch and they love Apple. Most people that buy iPhones do so because they are a good, easy-to-use product that they are familiar with, not because they are running a status ladder against other Apple users. If the watch does well it's going to be for the same reasons.Watches can already be luxury status symbols. If that's important to you, you aren't buying an Apple Watch. iPhones are priced around $650 and a great upper end budget Moto G 3rd gen is $220. I don't want to talk contracts or anything and upgr
  4. There are tons of reasons oil can stay low for longer and break Todem. Fracking can stop and start production on a dime. There doesn't seem to be any worry of supply not meeting demand. Fusion and alternative technology is advancing. Hydrogen, fuel cell, nuclear, solar, wind etc. Global environment concerns. Look at some coal charts, coal divesting, etc. The oil industry might be the next target of big government. Oil reliant countries are generally unstable and don't work well together. What country cuts first? Self driving cars, different modes of transportation, etc will use less non-rene
  5. I'm starting to see the Apple Watch as a means of iPhone users signaling their status over other iPhone users. Wherever we go with wearables or VR or cars, with Apple's perception as a luxury brand and best in class design, Apple is going to dominate the market. If everyone owns an iPhone then its no longer an iPhone cycle, but an Apple Watch or Apple glasses or Apple Car cycle that then upgrades into perpetuity. If everything is an extension of the iPhone then Apple's long term potential market to takeover is every luxury/status symbol.
  6. High gas prices, blame Obama Low gas prices, blame Obama
  7. used to buy FAZ and SKF back in the day. Lost more than my current net worth. Hope everyone watching this thread sees how destructive leveraged etfs are.
  8. Gold miners are all sick and indebted. Same condition as oil. Gold itself, I feel pretty strongly that public speculation in gold etfs and not economic/currency fear drove the price of gold up. When Argentinans are fearful of inflation they horde USD, when Asians are cautious they buy direct flight from Asia to US real estate, etc. GLD and GDX 2012 levels probably won't be reached unless every incoming producing asset and currency alternative plus paypal plus bitcoin and bitcoin alternatives plus inflation and capital protecting assets all go #### up.
  9. http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/01/15/how-bad-is-the-commodity-related-debt-crisis/ "The amount of commodity related debt whose share prices are trading under $5 is now an astounding $526 billion." With these guys indebted, will the safer names cut production or wait for a flush out? Do you guys see oil and commodities rebounding before the supply and debt issues are resolved?
  10. Agree with the sentiment. I'm adding aggressively to VGT over the next few months and will pick up some GOOG, MSFT, FB, AMZN since I prefer those names to AAPL and would like to be equally invested (VGT doesn't hold AMZN and its biggest holding is AAPL).
  11. I wouldn't go all in, but a piece of a Roth makes sense to me. Historically its been up to 100x that price. Hitting that return tax-free would be really sweet. Of course the Middle East is so stable, there no way we could likely have any future oil supply disruptions to drive the price back up./sarcasm So, this was a joke too? This thread is full of oil trades. Until you start seeing numerous defaults and bankruptcies AND supply come down, it's a gamble with huge potential losses. What do you think any of us know about Middle East stability AND how it will impact oil supply?
  12. UCO could lose money due to fees and decay right even if oil prices were flat. Imagine oil price $1. If oil gains 25% day 1 and loses 20% day 2 then the price of oil is: day 1: $1.25 day 2: $1 In the 2x ultra oil fund if the price starts at $1. If oil gains 25% day 1 and loses 20% day 2 then the price of the leveraged 2x fund is: day 1: $1.50 day 2: 0.90 Holding ultras on the short or long side is capital destroying. Even if price direction is fairly steady up or down, eventually the bottom falls out and the fund reverse splits 1:5. Based on this it sounds like shorting it long term would b
  13. Got it. I have no idea how things will turn out, and I apologize for not reading carefully. But, the opportunity cost of say 6% indexed needs to be factored in if most of your money is on the sideline.
  14. UCO could lose money due to fees and decay right even if oil prices were flat. Imagine oil price $1. If oil gains 25% day 1 and loses 20% day 2 then the price of oil is: day 1: $1.25 day 2: $1 In the 2x ultra oil fund if the price starts at $1. If oil gains 25% day 1 and loses 20% day 2 then the price of the leveraged 2x fund is: day 1: $1.50 day 2: 0.90 Holding ultras on the short or long side is capital destroying. Even if price direction is fairly steady up or down, eventually the bottom falls out and the fund reverse splits 1:5.
  15. I pulled my wife's 401K to the sidelines in Sept. I was hard leaving it there through the subsequent run up, but I'm glad I did, at this point. May put it in Treasuries or something until I feel the craziness is over. In my portfolio (investment account outside retirement) I now have: ETF shorts or ultrashorts on NASDAQ (SQQQ), S&P (SPXU), Financials (FAZ), Consumer Goods (SZK), China (ASIA), and Russia (YANG) VIX and TVIX UCO - don't have a whole lot, but everytime it hits a new low, I pick up a few hundred shares. I did a similar strategy in Sept. and by Oct. I was up 25%. I held too lo
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