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Everything posted by strong

  1. Harris doesn't watch much college film. He says this a lot and brings on guests to discuss rookies. So if he had trey #1, he was probably deferring to Waldman more than offering his own opinion on trey.
  2. he played in 43 out of 43 games at georgia. you might want to pump the brakes on that "injury prone" label.
  3. one of the reasons i was a bit higher on corey coming into this year than ECR (mid 60s?) was that his ypt had gone up each year, he was just stuck on a team that threw like 12 times a game... seemed to me if he could find 90-100 targets, he'd be a pretty nice fantasy WR. obviously 11.7 ypt is probably unsustainable for him but he's kind of the anti tyler boyd: a guy who has outproduced his volume, not been propped up by it. if he goes to an offense where his volume could actually finally creep into WR1 territory, he could really be something.
  4. yeah. sorry if that wasn't clear. it's my favorite rookie WR stat and it's been pretty predictive the last 20 years.
  5. i'd buy the efficient WRs and fade the inefficient ones that had higher volume. a lot of superstar WRs pop in yards per target right out of the gate and a lot of fool's gold was propped by volume. (think kelvin benjamin (6.9 yards per target) and justin blackmon (6.6)) higgins (8.6), lamb (8.7) & jefferson (11.2) really don't need to be mentioned. they're studs and it shows up in their elite efficiency. but pittman (8.2) & mims (8.0) are really nice buys as they're generally valued below several of the following players. claypool's efficiency (7.9) is way out in front of his teammates, so he seems like an awesome buy to me. jeudy (6.8) and reagor (7.2) worry me. i know their QB situations have been crap but so have a lot of the rookies in this class. and both trail several teammates, including their tight ends, which is a red flag to me. mooney (6.3) & hamler (6.8) are sells for anything. aiyuk (7.8) has been pretty efficient, but like jeudy & reagor, he's trailing his teammates and tight end. he seems like a great sell high since a lot of people are enamored with his volume. shenault's (7.6) is in the grey area but like claypool and unlike jeudy, reagor & aiyuk, he's well in front of most of his teammates. he seems like a great candidate to really benefit with a better qb next year, especially since a lot of the dynasty focus seems to be on chark. ruggs (10.4) is weird. his efficiency has been awesome but his lack of volume is concerning... i'd probably hold and hope for the best.
  6. i see this conversation a lot and it's always in extremes. i doubt the jags replace him or spend high draft capital on a RB. i also really doubt the jags completely ignore the position altogether. seems 100% reasonable for them to bring in some competent help by way of a 4th through 6th round pick or a free agent. giving a RB 98% of the carries isn't something many coaches or GMs set out to do.
  7. no doubt it is high. only 9 guys got there last year and that's probably about normal. it does take a combination of workload + health. but i was speaking more from a per game perspective, really.
  8. the problem for me is, this will still look very much like a 3 way RBBC... love dobbins' talent a ton but his path to 20+ touches in a game (and 300+ touches in 2021) is narrow.
  9. it definitely does look that way. henderson's highest snaps share is 56%. as to why that is, i would look back at henderson's prospect profile. he profiled as a change of pace back. he is also a bit light at 208 pounds and, i know it might not be objective, but for my money, he doesn't create nearly as well as akers. he hits the hole hard, no doubt, but i haven't see many instances of him setting things up on the next level or breaking tackles. correct me if i'm wrong, but akers already has the 3 longest runs of the rams season with a much lighter workload, right? considering henderson's speed, that is probably telling. henderson has had some nice games but i think it's pretty rational for mcvay to limit his touches and prefer akers when it comes to a heavy load.
  10. one possible (probable?) explanation is mcvay didn't change (he has always been a bellcow back) but he never envisioned that role for henderson and without preseason action, it was risky to throw akers into that role too quickly (if goff gets murdered, their season is done). and it wasn't overnight. akers saw 70% of the snaps and nearly all the touches for 6 straight quarters before thursday. writing was on the wall and i even posted about the bellcow signal we were getting last week.
  11. i was being facetious, yes, because no, henderson never had a game like this. he had a nice game, no doubt, with 120 yards on 21 touches on 49% of the snaps. but let's be honest: that's a far cry from 194 on 31 touches and 79% of the snaps. one is a break out game. the other is a big boy bellcow game. and re the bolded part: i have no idea what you think you know about mcvay but the two things i know about mcvay are that a) his lead back averaged 21 touches per game the last three years and b) up until this year, mcvay gave his lead back 18+ looks in 40 of 48 games and never rotated backs. smart money has always been on mcvay picking one RB to get the bulk of the opportunities. the long bet has always been that perhaps mcvay will change his ways and go full shanahan. (after picking a bellcow RB in the 2nd...) maybe this will go back to a 3 headed committee. but it certainly looks like akers has seized the bellcow role and you have to squint real hard to believe otherwise.
  12. have to think there's something going on here. he still gets targeted a lot when he's on the field but this looks like it will be the second straight game with a sub 50% snap share. he only got consistent burn when diontae was benched for a bit for dropsies. pure speculation, but it feels like he's in the doghouse, perhaps from some mental errors that have been tough for us to pick up on, or he's not 100% and they're trying to preserve him for the playoffs...
  13. i think i missed that game. when was it?
  14. it totally sucks but this injury isn't always multiple weeks. turf toe, like any sprain, has varying degrees. it can heal up fine within a week and it can linger for months. we don't know what grade gibson's is...
  15. i came in here to pat myself on the back for being the only manager alive in my 12 team league since week 10 and to see what people were saying about the stretch run. and... i guess this is just an easy year and i'm not suddenly smart!
  16. i see a 2nd round rookie with 65% of the snaps and 72% of the looks in the last 6 quarters while neither of the other two RBs are on the injury report or missing practices. he's also getting a huge majority of the red zone work. you really don't get more of a "bellcow's a comin" signal than that...
  17. they're keeping ill players home / out more this year as a covid precaution. show up with the sniffles and they send ya home.
  18. had this guy pegged as my 2nd round RB darling... but each week that's looking more and more like a pipe dream. with hubbard's flaws and gainwell's size, he really is making a case for RB3 in this class.
  19. wait until carr figures out that you can throw that back shoulder curl to him...
  20. 23 snaps for 38%. looks to be back in patricia's okay graces after last week's benching. he's up to 124 yards on 16 targets... that's pretty sexy. i can't wait for them to turn this guy loose.
  21. on the one hand, yes. on the other hand, his FFpts per route are friggin bonkers. and the offensive coordinator is now on record saying he wants alie-cox move involved. he's 4th in yards for tight ends. and he's played about 1/3 of the snaps as everyone else. i say buy buy buy.
  22. i was bummed when they pulled out the W. the sooner they're out of the playoffs, the sooner patricia gets the axe. but... seeing him make a play like that makes me wonder if he's legit missing some assignments in practice, too.
  23. woof! 5 snaps. looks like he got benched... got the first snap to start the 2nd half and... didn't realize he was the blitz safety valve and the ball hit him in the back between the numbers. hate to see those sorts of mental errors from a talented back.
  24. over the years, missing blind bids happen from time to time but only through a mobile app. we've never had someone complain of a disappearing bid that they placed through the website. probably best to double check your bids at the website. the apps are all third party and can be a bit finicky.
  25. no real upside to selling right now. best you'll get is what, WR40 price or so? doesn't seem worth it yet. i'm gonna hold and see if the turf toe was really holding him back last year and/or hope he keeps capitalizing as teams gameplan for AJ brown. if he's sitting around 60-80 ypg by week 3 or 4, then maybe i'll move him for a bit more than i'd get now. for my eyeballs, though, he looked a lot more athletic last night and had much more separation than anything i saw last year. color me hopeful...
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