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strong

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Posts posted by strong

  1. On 1/2/2021 at 11:37 AM, rockaction said:

    You know who the guy that leads the league in Yards Per Target with over fifty targets is? Or if you select 50% of team snaps on PFF, who that is?

    Oh man, this is sort of funny.

    Corey Davis. By a decent amount.

    The top ten in descending order are: Davis, Fuller V, Jefferson, DK Metcalf, Nelson Agholor, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Valdes-Scantling, Travis Kelce, and A.J. Brown if you screen for those two categories. Sounds about right for this year. All worthy fantasy contributors. 

     

    one of the reasons i was a bit higher on corey coming into this year than ECR (mid 60s?) was that his ypt had gone up each year, he was just stuck on a team that threw like 12 times a game... seemed to me if he could find 90-100 targets, he'd be a pretty nice fantasy WR. obviously 11.7 ypt is probably unsustainable for him but he's kind of the anti tyler boyd: a guy who has outproduced his volume, not been propped up by it.

    if he goes to an offense where his volume could actually finally creep into WR1 territory, he could really be something.

  2. 2 hours ago, rockaction said:

    Ruggs's volume, always a concern going into drafting him (would he only be used for a decoy and field stretcher?), isn't there at all. We'll see what an off-season and a camp do for him. They wanted him to improve his route running, so we don't know if his routes don't demand volume or whether volume just isn't coming his way because of game plan and quarterback play. Hopefully he's not somebody that washes by the wayside of potential. But in response to upthread, Agholor isn't even signed next season. We'll see what the Raiders do with Agholor and what kind of market he commands. If they sign him to a big deal, then I'd worry for Ruggs's sake.

    If I may ask, what are the numbers in the parenthesis, strong? Yards per target?

     

    yeah. sorry if that wasn't clear. it's my favorite rookie WR stat and it's been pretty predictive the last 20 years.

    • Like 2
  3. i'd buy the efficient WRs and fade the inefficient ones that had higher volume.

    a lot of superstar WRs pop in yards per target right out of the gate and a lot of fool's gold was propped by volume. (think kelvin benjamin (6.9 yards per target) and justin blackmon (6.6))

    higgins (8.6), lamb (8.7) & jefferson (11.2) really don't need to be mentioned. they're studs and it shows up in their elite efficiency.

    but pittman (8.2) & mims (8.0) are really nice buys as they're generally valued below several of the following players.

    claypool's efficiency (7.9) is way out in front of his teammates, so he seems like an awesome buy to me.

    jeudy (6.8) and reagor (7.2) worry me. i know their QB situations have been crap but so have a lot of the rookies in this class. and both trail several teammates, including their tight ends, which is a red flag to me.

    mooney (6.3) & hamler (6.8) are sells for anything.

    aiyuk (7.8) has been pretty efficient, but like jeudy & reagor, he's trailing his teammates and tight end. he seems like a great sell high since a lot of people are enamored with his volume.

    shenault's (7.6) is in the grey area but like claypool and unlike jeudy, reagor & aiyuk, he's well in front of most of his teammates. he seems like a great candidate to really benefit with a better qb next year, especially since a lot of the dynasty focus seems to be on chark.

    ruggs (10.4) is weird. his efficiency has been awesome but his lack of volume is concerning... i'd probably hold and hope for the best.

    • Like 2
  4. On 12/12/2020 at 8:16 AM, osubuckeyeman said:

    Why replace Robinson? a 3-down back that is effective in the pass game. Let's replace him?? If anything you add a pass catching specialist with speed or a Chase Edmunds type.  Jags have a lot of picks and cash. I assume there are a ton of other needs to address. 

     

    i see this conversation a lot and it's always in extremes. i doubt the jags replace him or spend high draft capital on a RB. i also really doubt the jags completely ignore the position altogether.

    seems 100% reasonable for them to bring in some competent help by way of a 4th through 6th round pick or a free agent. giving a RB 98% of the carries isn't something many coaches or GMs set out to do.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  5. 5 minutes ago, Gally said:

    That is a hefty milestone to shoot for.   There are only a few RB's that get into that range every year.  For this year there are only 2 guys currently at 300+ touches (Henry & Cook) and only three more (Zeke, Robinson,  Jacobs) that even have a shot.  They would need to average about 10-18 touches a game over the last three games to get there so barring injury they should do it but there won't be any others (Kamara is the next closest and he needs 70 more touches).

     

    no doubt it is high. only 9 guys got there last year and that's probably about normal. it does take a combination of workload + health. but i was speaking more from a per game perspective, really.

  6. 3 hours ago, Boone22 said:

    I believe McVay just doesn’t trust Henderson as a lead back for some reason.  No idea why but it certainly looks that way.  The Rams made a point after the draft about Akers being a guy “who can do everything and grow into an every down back”.  I think that is what they envisioned for him when they drafted him and now he’s finally healthy and they finally trust him in pass pro and other aspects to let him take the lead. 

     

    it definitely does look that way. henderson's highest snaps share is 56%. 

    as to why that is, i would look back at henderson's prospect profile. he profiled as a change of pace back. he is also a bit light at 208 pounds and, i know it might not be objective, but for my money, he doesn't create nearly as well as akers. he hits the hole hard, no doubt, but i haven't see many instances of him setting things up on the next level or breaking tackles.

    correct me if i'm wrong, but akers already has the 3 longest runs of the rams season with a much lighter workload, right? considering henderson's speed, that is probably telling.

    henderson has had some nice games but i think it's pretty rational for mcvay to limit his touches and prefer akers when it comes to a heavy load.

  7. one possible (probable?) explanation is mcvay didn't change (he has always been a bellcow back) but he never envisioned that role for henderson and without preseason action, it was risky to throw akers into that role too quickly (if goff gets murdered, their season is done).

     

    and it wasn't overnight. akers saw 70% of the snaps and nearly all the touches for 6 straight quarters before thursday. writing was on the wall and i even posted about the bellcow signal we were getting last week.

    • Like 2
  8. 5 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

    Week 3 when he ran for over 100 yards and even scored, finished only 2 fantasy points behind Akers great game.

    So, I think you saw it but you just are on you giddy high cuz Akers finally showed something in week 14. 

    Thats all this is, Akers had a great game and per usual everyone is out acting like he does it every week when he hasnt done it until Week 13 and 14. Now he is a stud? OK, go take him in the first next year, thats how this thread is hyping him. Akers looks good, but he is a Rams RB, this is still going to be a mess, with him looking to get the edge. 

    What shocks me is with all we know about McVay and Rams RBs, you guys are this excited about one. Not that Akers isnt good, its everyones over reaction to his one game and some saying they rather have him over Zeke. Come on.

     

     

    i was being facetious, yes, because no, henderson never had a game like this. he had a nice game, no doubt, with 120 yards on 21 touches on 49% of the snaps. but let's be honest: that's a far cry from 194 on 31 touches and 79% of the snaps. one is a break out game. the other is a big boy bellcow game.

    and re the bolded part: i have no idea what you think you know about mcvay but the two things i know about mcvay are that a) his lead back averaged 21 touches per game the last three years and b) up until this year, mcvay gave his lead back 18+ looks in 40 of 48 games and never rotated backs.

    smart money has always been on mcvay picking one RB to get the bulk of the opportunities. the long bet has always been that perhaps mcvay will change his ways and go full shanahan. (after picking a bellcow RB in the 2nd...)

    maybe this will go back to a 3 headed committee. but it certainly looks like akers has seized the bellcow role and you have to squint real hard to believe otherwise.

    • Like 4
  9. have to think there's something going on here.

     

    he still gets targeted a lot when he's on the field but this looks like it will be the second straight game with a sub 50% snap share. he only got consistent burn when diontae was benched for a bit for dropsies.

     

    pure speculation, but it feels like he's in the doghouse, perhaps from some mental errors that have been tough for us to pick up on, or he's not 100% and they're trying to preserve him for the playoffs...

  10. 59 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

    Turf toe is typically a multi-week issue and has ended seasons in the past but WFT is tied at 5-7 with the G-Men for first place in the NFCE so I think they will keep listing him doubtful and deactivate him on game days till they are out of it or he shows any signs that he can play.

    Awful FF situation for us owners but that is 'likely' how it will play out.  

     

    it totally sucks but this injury isn't always multiple weeks.

     

    turf toe, like any sprain, has varying degrees. it can heal up fine within a week and it can linger for months. we don't know what grade gibson's is...

  11. 16 hours ago, Wingnut said:

    We have 7 players left, and I think we could see a 5 or 6 way tie at the end. Lame.

     

    i came in here to pat myself on the back for being the only manager alive in my 12 team league since week 10 and to see what people were saying about the stretch run.

     

    and... i guess this is just an easy year and i'm not suddenly smart!

  12. On 12/7/2020 at 11:05 AM, Razors Edge said:

    Its clear, eh?

    Akers 22 touches 94 yards and a score

    Henderson 5 touches 74 yards and a score.

    One guy is more explosive and has shown it. To be a fantasy footballer and watch how the Rams use RBs and say its clear after mocking someone for saying "clearly" is kinda ironic is all.

    I mean, the stats show it.

     

    i see a 2nd round rookie with 65% of the snaps and 72% of the looks in the last 6 quarters while neither of the other two RBs are on the injury report or missing practices. he's also getting a huge majority of the red zone work.

     

    you really don't get more of a "bellcow's a comin" signal than that... 

    • Like 1
  13. 11 hours ago, travdogg said:

    I think as he puts together more practice with Carr that the targets will go up. Keeping it simple for now.

    Ruggs makes such a big difference in that offense. 3-0 in games with Ruggs, 0-2 without him. The threat of him deep, opens up everything else so much.

     

    wait until carr figures out that you can throw that back shoulder curl to him... 

  14. 2 hours ago, creepythinman said:

    As much as he is popping, hard to trust a guy that only ran 8 pass routes (I think?) this past game.

     

    on the one hand, yes. on the other hand, his FFpts per route are friggin bonkers. and the offensive coordinator is now on record saying he wants alie-cox move involved. 

    he's 4th in yards for tight ends. and he's played about 1/3 of the snaps as everyone else. i say buy buy buy. 

  15. 1 hour ago, Kiddnets said:

    its not looking good for this year....hopefully new coaching staff will realize his potential and give him some run....

     

    i was bummed when they pulled out the W. the sooner they're out of the playoffs, the sooner patricia gets the axe.

    but... seeing him make a play like that makes me wonder if he's legit missing some assignments in practice, too.

  16. no real upside to selling right now. best you'll get is what, WR40 price or so? doesn't seem worth it yet.

    i'm gonna hold and see if the turf toe was really holding him back last year and/or hope he keeps capitalizing as teams gameplan for AJ brown. if he's sitting around 60-80 ypg by week 3 or 4, then maybe i'll move him for a bit more than i'd get now.

    for my eyeballs, though, he looked a lot more athletic last night and had much more separation than anything i saw last year. color me hopeful...

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