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Acme CEO

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Everything posted by Acme CEO

  1. I haven't seen Sherman mentioned taking sides in this thing. Wonder what side he's on?
  2. Kelce is in a similar situation to Ertz. Fasano and Celek are better blockers and getting the running game is more important to winning than TE receptions. Both McCoy and Charles are having better games with their run blockers playing more. Gronk, Graham, and Thomas are studs because they stay on the field and don't telegraph passing situations.
  3. SNL was consistently funny every week in the early up to Phil Heartman eras. I agree with too much alternate channels for young talent to exploit. The show used to attract the young multi-talented comedians who could write, act, and sing. But guys like Donald Glover got poached when Tina Fey went off to do 30 rock. He would have been perfect for SNL.
  4. That 27 yd burst is just proof the talent is still there and untapped. Indy just needs to figure out how to use TRich correctly, in space, with noone in front of him.
  5. Some of you people haven't been watching the Colts as closely. If you take away Richardson's runs of negative to 2 yards, he'd be averaging, like, 4 ypc.
  6. No. Not that I am aware of but the man definitely had an unusual attraction to children, especially boys. The allegations may not have been enough to prove anything but he did admit to having sleepovers where he slept with the boys that came to visit. Maybe I am being unfair but when a man in his 30s is hosting sleepovers and sleeping with the boys in the same bed I can't help but believe he was up to something. MJ basically didn't have a childhood. Grew up under the crushing pressure of being a mega-star dominated and micro managed by a violent and abusive father. It's no wonder he spend the rest of his adulthood building a wonderland and zoo trying desperately to relive his childhood. Including first love, puberty, sexual curiosity/confusion, etc. I voted for all of the above.
  7. Just saw today a second Chinese builder is nearing default. News like this is scaring domestic Chinese away from the housing market, which already dropped 10% this year. As you said, a lot of builders are sitting on excess inventory in remote locations that they cannot sell. Those builders are facing note payments and are having difficulty moving units despite providing larger and larger discounts. This could be the trigger for a market collapse: builder discounting unsold inventory + fear will cause a larger correction in China's housing market. In a major correction, the market will freeze and builders will race each other to the bottom trying to dump unsold inventory as they struggle to make payment on their notes. Most of them will likely fail, and default. In the early stages of the US housing collapse, we couldn't see the small lenders struggle and fail since debt is re-packaged and sold a dozen times over, and large money institutions were able to hide and manipulate numbers. In China, we actually have more visibility since we can see these small builders fail before the big builders and banks start to falter.
  8. What's your take on China's risk, GM? That's my biggest concern as the trigger for the next major correction. Real estate over there is a huge risk. Property trusts that have been recklessly borrowing & building are starting to default, and large sums are due by 2015. If a few these trusts can't make payment and default, then I can see that as the start of the avalanche.
  9. Not much news, but the entire sector is heavily shorted. DDD has something like 35% of their float shorted. Looks like they're covering. Same with tech/saas. Each day that the market chuggs along and doesn't correct adds more pressure for shorts to capitulate. Anyone know any services that track average duration of open short positions? The angle I want to verify is that the longer the open positions, the more likely shorts will face margin calls and give in.
  10. GoPro about to shoot through 10B market cap already. What am I missing? I don't see a solid moat for their hardware or software. They look ripe for Asian OEMs to copy and undercut in pricing.
  11. Yes, calling the bottom correctly could make us rich.The fact that both FUEL and FEYE were able to more than double after their IPO makes me think they will do it again when public sentiment turns in their favor. However, I am looking at the analyst estimates and they are expected to continue losing money through 2015. Any idea when they expect to turn profitability? And is there any fear that competitors will carve into their market share? From what I have read, I believe they provide security for websites? Thanks for the heads-up on Acme CEO's posts. I will read them later. I have to say, and I hope to not jinx you, that you continue to do very well picking bottoms. You asked about FEYE on 5/9 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FEYE&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p71560063412 And Yandex on 4/26 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YNDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p03283023310 Thanks for noticing. I have been enjoying YNDX but I never bought FEYE. I mentioned EBIX a couple weeks ago and bought at 13.00. It just dipped back to +10%. I think it is going to 17.00 or another +20% in the next 2 months. I am still holding half of my FEYE and FUEL holdings after selling some during the runup. Nowhere near their peaks, but just enough to keep me above water after the recent drop. The short attack is over for FEYE and FUEL and their high short interest will need to be covered. If the market doesn't have a major correction soon, then all those shorts will face margin calls and will be squeezed. I believe both will continue to run up in the next few months while shorts cover. After, I will re balance FEYE to be a larger position while reducing FUEL. There is a lot of competition for AdTech and there are fundamental risks in the industry (eliminating cookies, control of their own ad inventory, etc.) FUEL, along with CRTO may be best in breed, but seem to be more acquisition targets for a company like Yahoo or Google than a long term buy and hold. FEYE is a long term hold for me. Cyber security is every bit a national security issue today as it is a private sector concern. I predict more defense funding will transition towards cyber security from traditional weapons and defenses. Mandiant is already the favorite private sector consultant of several national security agencies and I can see them growing this business into something similar to a private defense contractor. I also like PANW for this reason, but Mandiant gives FEYE more advanced services that PANW cannot. But both are way ahead of and disrupting market share of legacy security sellers like Symantec and McCafee.
  12. Nokia already has the tech to transmit broadband speeds over mobile towers. But then we'd just have ATT/mobile providers trying the same thing as Comcast. Maybe Facebook & Google's ventures into hot air balloons and low orbit satellites can chip away at the provider monopoly, but that's years and billions of $ away. Wont work out that way ACME. Right now its a matter of who has access to the physical lines in the ground. The govt only allows 1. Without lines and with towers then all the different competitors can get into the competition at any time. But it's pretty clear that Google is trying to become a provider and bypass the monopoly. Google, esp Youtube, sees this as a major threat to their future profits. Google Fiber is already up and running in KC. So if Google can deploy balloons as their radio infrastructure across the entire US and offer broadband, then I don't see how the government can regulate that. Isn't that how the Dish network gets around the regulations and is in every major market?
  13. Nokia already has the tech to transmit broadband speeds over mobile towers. But then we'd just have ATT/mobile providers trying the same thing as Comcast. Maybe Facebook & Google's ventures into hot air balloons and low orbit satellites can chip away at the provider monopoly, but that's years and billions of $ away.
  14. Well, now we know it wasn't Muslims. The Hans have been trying to wipe out the Uighurs for centuries and are actively carrying out eugenics programs including forced/tricked sterilization in Uighur population centers today. Recent SUV event and mass train station stabbings in Beijing all point to escalation.
  15. We met with a financial advisor on Thursday before the market opened. It has tanked since. We have a nice chunk of cash we're looking to put in and the timing is looking good for an entry point in the near future. Won't do anything though until this settles. Talking to my broker and reading the articles that are out, this seems to be the "joe investor" mindset right now. There is a ton of cash pulled out of bonds that are still sitting on the sidelines. This 'scared money' pulled from Bonds haven't yet been fully allocated into equities. All that money that needs to be put somewhere... definitely not back into treasuries. Gold is a possibility, but there is alot of public fear there too since it has been performing very poorly for a few years. IMO a minor correction in the market (creating illusion of value) followed by a quick recovery (real or fake) is the best fishing lure for Joe Public's dollars back into equities. I'm tentatively picking positions to add on this dip.
  16. Netflix is one of the few companies that blew out earnings. So far this season, the early tech reports are showing weak earnings, and reducing their guidance. The run up since the recession has been supported low rates & by earnings, giving it validity. Without earnings, it would be very difficult to justify the valuations of many stocks right now.
  17. So hot back in the day. I hope she gets into porn. Anything is possible but DDD makes money while Tesla does not. The fact that I bought back in already should probably be a huge red flag. Keep in mind that DDD is being supported by the rumour of an IBM buyout at $90. You're not going to get a tesla like correction until the deal rumor is completely killed.
  18. Siff - nice work as usual. I always slow down and poke around steelhedge when I see you post. From your recent article, you're looking for a top very soon... when you get near these critical times of potential trend reversals, do you update your models more frequently? Obviously, we're looking for what you believe is a confirmation of the reversal. Alot of us are sitting on some very lucrative gains from this run and would appreciate the foresight to jump out before we get corrected back to reality.
  19. This is anectodal, but a lot of IPOs have pretty bad 1st earnings calls because expectations are still being set and management is not used to handling the analysts. But isn't that one of the main driving points of PBPB? That management is very experienced in a publicly traded restaurant with high growth expectations? i.e. Yum in China?
  20. Any news for the PBPB drop? Looking for a long entry point around $25. Looking at NDLS' IPO as an example, we should expect PBPB to bounce around on news of the day for a few months, until earnings or expansion.
  21. How do you compare potbelly to other 'semi premium' sandwich chains like Togos, Quiznos, etc? I'd consider those two a tier better than subway and direct competitors to PBPB.
  22. Haters gonna hate. The cream always rises.These 2 guys patting each other on the back... Get over yourself. Where did he even pat me on the back? I have not made any predictions nor have I ever interacted with the OP in any way. Nor do I think he has even been involved in any discussion that I have been in. In what possible context could he be patting me on the back? Isn't it rather obvious he is referring to himself as the cream rising to the top and in a general sense that those who are the best rise to the top? Pretty lame and sophomoric attempt to appear funny or clever. It absolutely boggles my mind the lengths at which grown men at FBG will go to try to be funny/clever/witty. If you really want to I suggest you go back and read all the smartasses and their cocksure insults/ridicule/mockery and see how they fared. You're not getting it. 'Eminence', on 29 Jan 2013 - 7:53 PM, said: 'Eminence', on 09 Feb 2013 - 12:46 PM, said: OP nailed it, and fortunately shared the secret to his success - look for stocks that used to be $40 and aren't $40 anymore, they will go back to $40.
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