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Everything posted by Mene

  1. Oh, I get it... but one of those plays was within the teams control, the other wasn't. They never take care of what they can control.
  2. I don't think the league, nor the officials, have it out for the Lions. I do think they seem to always find themselves on the wrong side of these kind of calls, however. I have always just attributed it to the bias that occurs in sports officiating. Calls seemingly tend to go for the teams and players considered the best, and against those considered the worst. I am sure that is some subconscious bias in officials. They already know it's a bad team, mistake prone, and I would bet that skews perception. A make your own luck situation, if you will. I hate doing this, because this is where it always go when such an egregious bad call takes place... but... if you don't allow a 36 yard pass on 4th and 18, you aren't in position for the officials to burn you like this. I mean... how the hell was Watkins that open?
  3. I was offered Gronk for him. I already have Waller, and a much bigger need at RB, so I'll hold and hope the role remains the same.
  4. George Kittle. He's never scored TD's at a high rate, it's been volume and RAC that made him elite. It's just two games, but 9 targets with the prospect of Lance looming really makes me wish I would have stuck with my gut and bumped him down to TE5 or TE6.
  5. If this continues, Williams could end the season with 1k rushing yds, 10+ TD's, and 30ish receptions. That would end up being an absolute larceny considering what he cost to acquire. I admittedly benched him in the 2 leagues I have him in this week, just wanting to see how this played out. I'm now a lot more comfortable counting on him as a RB3/Flex type going forward.
  6. This guy is such an enigma to me, yet I invested in him in about half my leagues. Whenever I watch him, I come away thinking he's just not that good, makes too many mistakes, and seems to be in pain after half of his catches. Yet... Ben just peppers him with targets, and he seems to make one jaw dropping play per week. Glad the injury wasn't "serious", will be watching practice reports this week for sure.
  7. I guess I don't understand this take. Statistically, PFF grades, and most analysts I've read would disagree with this. Both have been pretty poor the last 2 years, but Freeman has been worse, statistically. We are debating a couple guys who very likely will not matter much if at all, but if I'm betting on one of those two, I'm going to break towards Bell just based on the above listed criteria.
  8. As I said upthread, that may be, but his PFF grades have been much better than Freeman's over the last couple years. Additionally, Waldman, along with a few other analysts, have said Bell wasn't as bad last year as the narrative seems to be. I'm deferring to them, I didn't watch Bell at all last year.
  9. That's fair. I'm talking just about fantasy relevance. The 1A role has typically been a RB2 for fantasy, the 1B more in the RB3/Flex mold, and the 1C not useful outside of potentially a handcuff type hold. Whoever carves out those 1A/1B roles will likely be worth rostering. I suspect and hope the way you've placed them is how it ends up, except I really think Bell passes Freeman. Freeman grades out terribly over the last few years, and when I have watched him, he looks bad.
  10. I promise, I'm not stumping for Bell. This Freeman news could just be that he was in a camp this year, so he was closer to game shape than Bell. Of the 3 vets they brought in, Freeman seems to me to be the one who most obviously has nothing left. If this is truly a matter of Freeman outperforming Bell in practice, then I will feel a whole lot better about this just coming down to Williams vs Murray.
  11. This was my take initially, but when I dug in.. his PFF grades weren't awful last year, and Waldman insists he played better than people realize. I won't pretend to have watched Bell much last year, and am humble enough to defer to analysts when it comes to truly trying to determine what he has left. I certainly am not banking on, or investing heavily, in the success of Bell. However, with this seemingly wide open, I hesitate to rule him out. Full disclosure, Ty'Son is the only one I own currently on any of my teams, and he's certainly the one I'm hoping emerges. I just know that the mistakes on fundamentals can derail an exciting runner damn fast, especially if those mistakes hinder the QB from being successful. Pass pro and struggles with exchanges on RPO's feel like exactly the kind of mistakes that could result in a far less exciting, but more reliable option emerging here.
  12. No clue how this will shake out, but the "four backs in the mix" and will "play all those guys" comments just reek of coach speak. I really have a hard time believing all four will play meaningful snaps. This will settle in to a 1A/1B situation I would think, but who will fill those roles is still an unknown. I have this sneaking suspicion that Le'Veon Bell is going to wind up rising to the top of this, especially if Williams can't make some progress on what were viewed as his weaknesses in week 1. I really can't see Freeman factoring in, he's looked done for a while. I know the myth is that Bell is done, but he really didn't grade out that terribly last year, despite being passed by Williams down the stretch.
  13. Went for 100% and 49% in my two leagues. My bids were 63% and 30% respectively. In the end, I think I'm glad I didn't get him, as I just don't think he remains their lead back the rest of the way. In fact, I have little confidence that he is the lead back this weekend. You always want the Shanahan lead back, but it's impossible to predict who that will be much beyond the current week, and even that is questionable in this situation.
  14. This is one that is giving me pause. I guess my concern here is that we know Gordon is there, is listed as the starter, and seems likely to keep Javonte from getting a majority of the work. With Ty'Son, this feels like at a minimum the one week where a high workload is all but guaranteed. The 3 vets were all signed within the last 5 days, and I think it's highly unlikely any of them are ready to take on a significant number of touches. I could be wrong here, but I suspect Ty'Son is bound to see 15+ touches. I'm banking on the volume against a bad defense.
  15. Team A - Jav. Williams, Jam.Williams, A.J.Dillon Team B - N.Hines, A.J.Dillon, T.Jones Jr Man, punting RB's in these leagues might have been a mistake....😢
  16. This team has little to no depth, massive weakness in the middle of the back 7 (8 I guess, depending on how you look at it in a 3-4), and as of yet unproven CB play. I think this will be a rough season. I love the new coaching staff, I love the attitude around the team, I like the direction they seem to be heading. This isn't the year to look for W/L results, in my opinion. The thing I will be looking for is are they fighting until the end, which I hope to see, and progression from some of the key young players. 3 -14 1. 49ers LOSS 2. @ Packers (MNF) LOSS 3. Ravens LOSS 4. @ Bears LOSS 5. @ Vikings LOSS 6. Bengals WIN 7. @ Rams LOSS 8. Eagles LOSS 9. BYE 10. @ Steelers LOSS 11. @ Browns LOSS 12. Bears (Thanksgiving) WIN 13. Vikings LOSS 14. @ Broncos LOSS 15. Cardinals LOSS 16. @ Falcons LOSS 17. @ Seahawks LOSS 18. Packers WIN (Packers have division and #2 seed locked up, rest starters after 1st quarter, Lions win late)
  17. In the end, that was what cost him his roster spot, but there was a lot of chatter about him being surpassed by Jones during camp and preseason, as far as performance. Was he cut because they wanted a salary reduction, or did they want a salary reduction because he was no longer the clear #2 option?
  18. I could see it with Murray, he still grades out well as a rusher, but everything I've read and seen from Freeman indicates he's pretty well toast. That said, at 31 and 3 years removed from 200+ carries in a season, do we really think Murray can hold up to that? This will be a committee, but someone is likely to "lead" and receive 200+ carries, assuming healthy. If I'm going to bet on any of these 4, it's Williams, just because of the age and the unknown. We know the other 3, and all have indicators that being an effective 200+ carry RB seems unlikely.
  19. Of the 3 vets they've signed, only Murray has any recent success, as moderate as that was. Freeman hasn't been fantasy relevant since 2017. Bell was admittedly stuck with Gase in 19, but he did wind up falling out of the rotation in KC last year, against a solid but underwhelming Darrell Williams. His numbers haven't been fantasy relevant since 2017. Murray at least put up solid numbers last year, but he is 31 and hasn't actually been a lead back since 2017 himself. So, the theme here seems to be that none of these 3 have produced fantasy relevant numbers in a high volume role since 2017. It seems really unlikely that any of them are going to have a late career resurgence now, considering how rare that is for a RB. If I had to guess, Williams gets his shot to run with the lead job this week, and assuming he doesn't fall on his face, has the best path to holding it. He's not a rookie, he was on the practice squad last year, so he's had time to get familiar with the system. I drafted him in my 2 home leagues, both of which I have thin backfields, and one of them where Edwards was my RB2. Right now, I am leaning towards starting him over Jav.Williams, Jam.Williams, and A.J.Dillon in one league, and over N.Hines and A.J.Dillon in the other. None of the options I'm considering him over are world beaters, obviously. I suspect the volume will be there this week, the matchup is nice, and the system certainly favors RB production.
  20. He's a popular breakout target, so the boldness can be debated, but I'm going with Jerry Jeudy finishes a WR1 (top 12) in ppr. 105/1375/9 for 17.4 ppg.
  21. I just don't see how Edwards can get the volume to get near what Waldman predicted in his Gut Check article. Since Gruden came to the Raiders, they have had 238, 211, & 268 WR targets total. The most any WR has had in those 3 years is 88, by Jordy Nelson in 2018. To get to the 1100/8 to 1330/12 that Waldman says is possible, either the Raiders offense is going to have to undergo a significant change, Edwards is going to have to have an unbelievably efficient season, or Waller is going to have to disappear. I certainly like what I've read about Edwards, but recent history would seem to point to 90 targets, 60/900/7 being the reasonable upside projection.
  22. Lighten up, bub, and take you own advice about the small stuff...It was a light hearted jab. That's quite a response though, for something so trivial. Well done sir!
  23. Any predictions on what team John (Smokey) Brown will be doing this for? I'm sure they would love to know.
  24. It'll be interested to see I guess. I dug a little deeper, Greg Roman's history of targets for RB's while OC 2020 Bal - 51 2019 Bal - 52 2016 Buf - 90 2015 Buf - 84 2014 SF - 64 2013 SF - 72 2012 SF - 53 2011 SF - 58 Granted, he's typically had running QB's, which do not provide you the additional dump off's... but I'm still not seeing an offense that makes an effort to target RB's. Again, not trying to say Dobbins is a bad pick, especially where he is going right now. However, due to the fact that he's not likely to see a Derrick Henry style workload, you will need a pretty dramatic shift in either Roman's play calling, or Jackson's willingness to dump off, for Dobbins to see enough catches to break into that top end RB1 range. I love the player, but I fear his ceiling is capped by what looks to be limited opportunity for receptions. Using FBG's consensus rankings, he's around Swift, Harris, CEH, Carson, Monty, & Jacobs. I would bet on every one of those players having more catches than Dobbins, and maybe Swift being the only one with less volume. If I'm swinging for a homerun in my RB2, looking for a guy who if all goes perfect, I have a RB1, I think I take all 6 of those guys above Dobbins. If I'm looking for safe and predictable, Dobbins has a better argument. It's going to be fun to watch. I've had this debate with a couple guys in my home league, so if I'm wrong, crow will be on the menu for a while.
  25. The bolded is what makes me nervous about Dobbins in PPR. The Ravens RB targets with Jackson starting at QB 2018 - 25 (7gms) [ T.Montgomery 17 ] 2019 - 49 (15gms) [ Ingram 30 ] 2020 - 49 (15gms) [ Dobbins 22 ] It's pretty undeniable that Jackson does not utilize the RB's in the passing game. I haven't read anything about this becoming a focus in the offense, so based on the expected split, I have a hard time seeing more than 20... maybe 25 receptions tops for Dobbins? That lack of catches, plus the risk of TD vultures from Jackson and Edwards, just makes me really hesitant to buy in on Dobbins where he is going. Very talented, fun to watch, but the situation makes insane efficiency almost a requirement for him to really break out.
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