Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited


0 Neutral

Profile Information

  • Gender

Recent Profile Visitors

7,906 profile views
  1. Serious question: how many of these guys, with the full benefit of hindsight, would be worth 2nd round dynasty rookie picks? If you had a 2nd round pick and your choice right now was between one of these guys (assuming that their career was going to turn out exactly like it did, and you knew in advance just how that would be), or "door #2" (say, Justin Hunter, Aaron Dobson, Travis Kelce, or Zach Ertz, to name four guys with a mid-2nd ADP this year)... how many of those guys would you take over one of the Hunter/Dobson/Kelce/Ertz quartet? I'm also going to add the rule that you have to hold the player in question for his entire career, to rule out someone saying "I'd draft Matt Flynn and then trade him after his 6-TD game", for example. We want a comparison of which of these guys were actually worth 2nd round picks, not which of these guys were actually busts, but you could have conned one of your leaguemates into overpaying for them. With those rules, I would take the following players over Hunter/Dobson/Kelce/Ertz: Peyton Hillis Tim Hightower (PPR only) Pierre Garcon Stevie Johnson Antonio Brown I would also briefly consider, but likely reject, the following: Brandon Myers (PPR only) Johnnie Knox (non-PPR only) So that's 5 players out of 130, or less than 4%. In non-PPR, it's 4 out of 130, or less than 3%. To this point in their careers, those five players have accounted for about 261 points of VBD combined (obviously several of them will continue to add to that total in coming years), so the EV of a 5th round pick or later over the three years in question is just 2 VBD. Most importantly... yes, a system based on draft position would have dismissed those five players as unworthy of being drafted. The important question, though, is what system wouldn't have dismissed those five players as unworthy of being drafted? If you aren't going to anchor on draft position because it'll cause you to miss out on Antonio Brown, what is this better system you're going to use that will identify Antonio Brown as someone worth drafting? What system is going to lead to you spending a rookie pick on the 3rd string RB from Arkansas who got drafted in the 7th round to play fullback for a franchise that already has 4 RBs under contract? What system would have led you to take Pierre Garcon, the unknown from tiny Mount Union, over Jaymar Jackson, the unknown from tiny Jackson State who was drafted right before him in the 6th, to say nothing of taking Garcon over all of the other guys going ahead of him? My system never would have recognized Antonio Brown, but you know who else would have failed to recognize Antonio Brown? EVERYONE ELSE; Antonio Brown was drafted, on average, as the 67th rookie off the board in 2010. He was a 6th round pick in dynasty drafts. Hell, by the time I get into the 6th round, I'm grabbing guys who were going in the 5th round or later of the NFL draft, too! So yes, sometimes late players become stars, and my system will not recognize those guys ahead of time. Again, the question stands: what system will? When you see for yourself just how ridiculously small the chances really are, and when you see that the guys who broke out were never the guys anybody expected, how can you defend speculating on 5th+ round NFL draft picks in the 2nd round of dynasty rookie drafts? Even in the 3rd round they're usually a stretch- I'd prefer Marquise Goodwin, Knile Davis, and Jordan Reed to the overwhelming majority of those known scrubs, too. This seems to contradict our DHB vs Chaz Schilens debate from a few years ago. Unless that's classified under the "cut bait" area
  2. Eric Winston being released by the Chiefs is very newsworthy
  3. He could be better than Lynch. That's right, you heard me.My goodness, seriously..."won't miss a beat" "better than Lynch" Robert Turbin wasn't even the best RB at Utah State.
  4. You honestly haven't seen Russell Wilson play much, he's a very good passer.
  5. Caught the only pass thrown his way...20 yard skinny post down to the 1 yardline.Looks good I checked out the first game, grabbed 4 of 5 targets for 35 yards. I'm afraid of him being on a limited snap count for the bad wr's the bears have not gotten over. Logic would say start Marshall/Jeffry with Sanzenbacher in the slot, that would have been nice to see along with Olsen at TE.Sanzenbacher may not make the team. Marshall, Jeffrey, Bennett, Hester, Weems, and then it's probably Sanzenbacher or Davis or a flyer.A secondary key to the season will be getting Jeffrey out there instead of Hester. Jeffrey is a stud, has hands for days, is strong in the air, and uses his body well to ensure he has a chance to receive the ball. Hester has no idea what to do unless he is wide open with no one around him. It's like he never played the position before he got to the bears. A strong wind displaces him in the air.Sanzenbacher is a better slot than Bennett. The're paying Bennett so he's going to play.I disagree 100%, Bennett is head shoulders knees and toes, knees and toes above Sanz
  6. Jeffery just boxed out Denard Jackson, drew a Pass Interference call with him drapped on his back, and caught the ball. Next play Jeffery caught a pass between 3 defenders, runs around them for a 34 yard gain.
  7. Caught the only pass thrown his way...20 yard skinny post down to the 1 yardline.Looks good
  8. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=650642That's not discussion based? I'm throwing him under the bus? I'm taking a jab?
  9. EBF, you're very high on Jon Baldwin being a #1 NFL WR. Isn't Alshon Jeffery the same player? Baldwin might be a little more athletic, but they are pretty close IMO.
  10. hope he didn't tear anything during the deliveryWhy don't you go away already?
  11. Not cool, guy.http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NYJjoT-A8C0/UAP7JsS9DVI/AAAAAAAAB6g/S_VVq2I21BU/s1600/jeremy-piven-gtfo.gifIt's an opinion, and I agree. Another over hyped guy on these boards.This isn't the place for realists or negativity.This is getting rediculous
  • Create New...