Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by benson_will_lead_the_way

  1. Serious question: how many of these guys, with the full benefit of hindsight, would be worth 2nd round dynasty rookie picks? If you had a 2nd round pick and your choice right now was between one of these guys (assuming that their career was going to turn out exactly like it did, and you knew in advance just how that would be), or "door #2" (say, Justin Hunter, Aaron Dobson, Travis Kelce, or Zach Ertz, to name four guys with a mid-2nd ADP this year)... how many of those guys would you take over one of the Hunter/Dobson/Kelce/Ertz quartet? I'm also going to add the rule that you have to hold the player in question for his entire career, to rule out someone saying "I'd draft Matt Flynn and then trade him after his 6-TD game", for example. We want a comparison of which of these guys were actually worth 2nd round picks, not which of these guys were actually busts, but you could have conned one of your leaguemates into overpaying for them. With those rules, I would take the following players over Hunter/Dobson/Kelce/Ertz: Peyton Hillis Tim Hightower (PPR only) Pierre Garcon Stevie Johnson Antonio Brown I would also briefly consider, but likely reject, the following: Brandon Myers (PPR only) Johnnie Knox (non-PPR only) So that's 5 players out of 130, or less than 4%. In non-PPR, it's 4 out of 130, or less than 3%. To this point in their careers, those five players have accounted for about 261 points of VBD combined (obviously several of them will continue to add to that total in coming years), so the EV of a 5th round pick or later over the three years in question is just 2 VBD. Most importantly... yes, a system based on draft position would have dismissed those five players as unworthy of being drafted. The important question, though, is what system wouldn't have dismissed those five players as unworthy of being drafted? If you aren't going to anchor on draft position because it'll cause you to miss out on Antonio Brown, what is this better system you're going to use that will identify Antonio Brown as someone worth drafting? What system is going to lead to you spending a rookie pick on the 3rd string RB from Arkansas who got drafted in the 7th round to play fullback for a franchise that already has 4 RBs under contract? What system would have led you to take Pierre Garcon, the unknown from tiny Mount Union, over Jaymar Jackson, the unknown from tiny Jackson State who was drafted right before him in the 6th, to say nothing of taking Garcon over all of the other guys going ahead of him? My system never would have recognized Antonio Brown, but you know who else would have failed to recognize Antonio Brown? EVERYONE ELSE; Antonio Brown was drafted, on average, as the 67th rookie off the board in 2010. He was a 6th round pick in dynasty drafts. Hell, by the time I get into the 6th round, I'm grabbing guys who were going in the 5th round or later of the NFL draft, too! So yes, sometimes late players become stars, and my system will not recognize those guys ahead of time. Again, the question stands: what system will? When you see for yourself just how ridiculously small the chances really are, and when you see that the guys who broke out were never the guys anybody expected, how can you defend speculating on 5th+ round NFL draft picks in the 2nd round of dynasty rookie drafts? Even in the 3rd round they're usually a stretch- I'd prefer Marquise Goodwin, Knile Davis, and Jordan Reed to the overwhelming majority of those known scrubs, too. This seems to contradict our DHB vs Chaz Schilens debate from a few years ago. Unless that's classified under the "cut bait" area
  2. Eric Winston being released by the Chiefs is very newsworthy
  3. He could be better than Lynch. That's right, you heard me.My goodness, seriously..."won't miss a beat" "better than Lynch" Robert Turbin wasn't even the best RB at Utah State.
  4. You honestly haven't seen Russell Wilson play much, he's a very good passer.
  5. Caught the only pass thrown his way...20 yard skinny post down to the 1 yardline.Looks good I checked out the first game, grabbed 4 of 5 targets for 35 yards. I'm afraid of him being on a limited snap count for the bad wr's the bears have not gotten over. Logic would say start Marshall/Jeffry with Sanzenbacher in the slot, that would have been nice to see along with Olsen at TE.Sanzenbacher may not make the team. Marshall, Jeffrey, Bennett, Hester, Weems, and then it's probably Sanzenbacher or Davis or a flyer.A secondary key to the season will be getting Jeffrey out there instead of Hester. Jeffrey is a stud, has hands for days, is strong in the air, and uses his body well to ensure he has a chance to receive the ball. Hester has no idea what to do unless he is wide open with no one around him. It's like he never played the position before he got to the bears. A strong wind displaces him in the air.Sanzenbacher is a better slot than Bennett. The're paying Bennett so he's going to play.I disagree 100%, Bennett is head shoulders knees and toes, knees and toes above Sanz
  6. Jeffery just boxed out Denard Jackson, drew a Pass Interference call with him drapped on his back, and caught the ball. Next play Jeffery caught a pass between 3 defenders, runs around them for a 34 yard gain.
  7. Caught the only pass thrown his way...20 yard skinny post down to the 1 yardline.Looks good
  8. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=650642That's not discussion based? I'm throwing him under the bus? I'm taking a jab?
  9. EBF, you're very high on Jon Baldwin being a #1 NFL WR. Isn't Alshon Jeffery the same player? Baldwin might be a little more athletic, but they are pretty close IMO.
  10. hope he didn't tear anything during the deliveryWhy don't you go away already?
  11. Not cool, guy.http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NYJjoT-A8C0/UAP7JsS9DVI/AAAAAAAAB6g/S_VVq2I21BU/s1600/jeremy-piven-gtfo.gifIt's an opinion, and I agree. Another over hyped guy on these boards.This isn't the place for realists or negativity.This is getting rediculous
  12. Measureables are tools for scouts. They gather accurate raw numbers and plug them into a metric and only a few guys come out the other side labeled as having 'rare' physical skills. Basic stats, mean is average. One standard deviation away from the mean is a significant statistical measurement, two standard deviations stumbles into 'rare' teritory, three standard deviations is the outliner and goes into uncharted areas. When one scout or a coach or a reporter says something it doesn't automatically ping on my radar. Schefter is one of the guys I have learned to listen to whenever he reports on something. He's very careful and doesn't make these sorts of reports without fact checking. Schefter wasn't the first or only one coming up with NFL scouting sources saying Gordon has 'rare' physical skills. You are 100% correct, Gordon was practicing with a team for an entire year and even if he made the decision to declare for the supplemental draft on June 29 he wasn't sitting around eating Cheeteos and Ding Dongs watching Oprah. You zero in on things connected to core strength. Core strength is another term that the scouting crowd uses to describe a mass of muscle/strength connected to strength which helps all of the things you point out as weakness' with Gordon, verticle, broad, bench, etc. All of those measurables are connected to what is simply called 'core' strength or just 'core'. WRs who have great 'core' strength in addition to having size and speed etc obviously have an edge but the only real advantage for a WR in connection to 'core' strength is verticle rise. Vert is based off of explosion and is essential for NBA guys and helps quite a bit for WRs going up for balls. OK, NOW this is where Gordon's exceptional span and arm length come into play. The best way to explain this is with an anology but to really 'get it' I'll have to greatly exaggerate so stay with me. Consider if you stand on your tip-toes to reach up on a high ktichen shelf for a glass but its just out of reach. Now consider if your feet grew by one foot in length and NOW you stand up on your tip-toes to reach for that glass, what is the outcome? Ahhhhhh, yes. That is the COMBINED advantage of, hieght, span, AND arm length. It more than cancels out vert because when a WR goes up to battle a DB for a jump ball they BOTH have to set their feet and gain position even before anything happens. With longer arms than average and a much longer span than average and already being over 6'3 with under estimated speed he has 'rare' physical gifts and the tape shows he naturally knows how to use his gifts. You are right once again, ALL of those guys went into the draft process but none of them were considered to have 'rare' physical skills. They possess some things better/worse than Gordon but the key is they went thru the draft process.Its not a mistake that those guys did not go higher in the draft. Gordon only had one team put a second round bid on him, Cleveland. The scouting community did weigh in and they said he has 'rare' physical skills. You mentioned Gordon played his hand close to his vest and declared late in the game so people wouldn't poke around too much on his background, possibly but consider this. Cleveland used its first round pick in 2011 on DT Phil Taylor. Cleveland was seriously looking into taking Baylor QB RG III and was willing to pay three first round draft picks and its high second round draft pick this year but missed out. We know from reports that the Browns were set to take Baylor WR Kendall Wright with its 22nd pick in the first round but missed out. Now the Browns have taken former Baylor WR Josh Gordon and made the only second round bid on him. What does this say about Cleveland's scouting department inside Baylor? It says they have a trusted source inside Baylor and they've invested high picks and would have invested other high picks on players from Baylor indicating they would have bet all of thier highest picks on word from that source. So they may have paid a higher price than other teams would have but they did not make a blind bet, they bet on a trusted source that Gordon has overcome his 'issue' with pot and the scouting community has said he has 'rare' physical skills so I see him as a guy with 'rare' physical skills going into a very advantageous situation to produce earlier rather than later and the path is paved for him to turn into a legit #1 WR long term. The gamble is whether or not he'll do the work to turn into a #1 WR but consider how hard he worked to overcome his 'issue' AND that he worked and practiced with a team for an entire year knowing he'd never play a down. That shows commitment so I think the Browns made a good gamble and I'm willing to make the same gamble if he falls in my rookie draft. Three points:1) Schefter reports what others say. His reliability goes no further than that we can believe that someone said what he said they said. In other words, Shefter saying that someone said Gordon has rare skills doesn't mean Gordon has rare skills, it just means someone said he has rare skills. And given the colossal mess that some front offices seem to build year after year, which person said he has rare talents makes a pretty big difference. So anonymous quotes still don't tell us much in the realm of scouting. Who is saying it does makes a difference. Adam Schefter is well respected because he doesn't put out puff pieces. If he says something, it's because he is quoting/responding to someone he respects. Schefter has become one of the best in the business by that reputation, not by throwing out false reports. 2) I'm not a noob. I understand how wingspan and hand size, etc. all add up. What I have shown though is that his height isn't that rare. His arm length isn't that rare. His hand size isn't that rare. His jump numbers aren't that rare. In every way measured, there are comparable WR's and I don't remember hearing the "rare" label attached to them. Now, I'm not saying he isn't rare. He may be. But when I hear that and then look at the numbers, I'm not seeing rare measureables. Sanu, for instance, is 1" shorter. But in terms of how high their finger tips can get, Sanu might not be giving anything up to Gordon just because of body architecture. Sanu's vertical, arm length and hand size were essentially identical. His broad was better. His bench reps were better. Gordon running a bit faster (and not "rare" faster either) and being 1" taller (again, not "rare" taller) doesn't separate "rare" from "pedestrian". With little training I think it's impressive and on the field he looks really solid. 3) The scouting community has spoken. And it sounds like you are cherry picking your sources. The consensus opinion was not that Gordon has "rare" skills. There were some saying he shouldn't be more than a 5th rounder. So let's not act like 100% of the opinion on this guy is that he's "rare". Cleveland wanted him worse than anyone else. We know that. But that necessarily means that no one else wanted him that bad. So follow me here. If NFL teams across the board or the scouting community in general thought Gordon is so rare, why were there so few teams seriously interested in this guy? San Fran thought a certain WR was rare this spring that not too many others did. Couldn't it be nothing more than that all over again? Prior to the supplemental draft, people were predicting that a couple of teams might give a 3rd rounder for him. A couple of teams. So then, what club in the NFL wouldn't kick the tires on a young Randy Moss if the general consensus on this kid is that he is "rare"? That tells me that a couple of teams believe, but that not too many others do. So then, you could get anonymous sources from Cleveland and Washington and, voila', you have anonymous sources from both the NFC and the AFC saying this kid has "rare" skills. 21 teams were at his workout, does that tell you teams weren't seriously interested? Once a team puts in a bid in a higher round, the rest of the teams don't submit bids.
  13. I think you have a valid point, but I don't see the or Streeter comparison at all.Tommy Streeter in his one year wonder - 46 receptions 811 yards 8 TD while he was 22/23 years old(birthday in october)Josh Gordon in his one year wonder - 42 receptions 714 yards 7 TD while he was 19 years old
  14. He is young, raw, but he's got rare physical skills and a history of smoking pot.The Browns feel he checks out characer-wise but from all acconts he is at least a year away from making an impact. He's behind after missing mini camps and OTAs. He's going to get his first NFL playbook after not having one at Baylor and he's got tons of work to do in getting reps and getting any sort of chemistry goiong with Weeden. Don't expect much this year from him but I do think he'll take Mo-Massaquoi's job by the end of this season. If you check out other rookie WRs and look at the production they have their rookie year and compare it to the second/third seasons you see the 'general trend' is they don't do much, if anything, the first part of their rookie year but get a shot and start to produce at the end of that year and carry it forward. So if he struggles or doesn't break into the starting line-up he could probably come cheaper at some point this year. Right now the hype is probably driving his price up but uncertainty about his skills could pop-up if he doesn't get a shot or if he struggles. That would be the time to get him at a cheaper price but I wouldn't expect a return on investment until next year. I get the pick and I also get that his best shot to make an impact is next year. But does he really have rare physical skills? Seriously. People act like 6'3" is rare. It isn't anymore. Over 6' WR's are the norm now. Look at the combine numbers and see how many guys come into the league at this height, weight, speed. Look at the vertical and long jump numbers.I can't speak to game film, but in every measurable EXCEPT his hand measurements (didn't see a wingspan measurement), he's actually not that rare. Nor is the combination that rare. Yet the name Randy Moss gets thrown out there? Go back and look at the scouting reports on M.Sanu and tell me where Gordon comes in as rare. Are there anonymous NFC and AFC front office people comparing Sanu to Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall? Are people missing that he's no bigger or faster (albeit in timed 40) than Greg Little and Little had a better vertical and long jump? Does Little qualify as "rare"? It sounds as if I am arguing him down. I don't mean to. But there seems to be some hyperbole involved here and I start to get a bit suspicious when the sources are still anonymous after the guy gets drafted. He's already been drafted so why comment anonymously? I think you have a valid concern. I believe what most are going off of is his potential. He had a good freshman season and then...nothing.Sanu/Jeffery/Randle/Hill/Floyd/etc...they all had months of training at state of the art facilities to bring out the maximum in their athletic abilities for those tests. How long did Gordon have to prepare? He pulled a quad and still put up comparable numbers...that's the impressive part, at least for me. It's like a guy coming out of the stands, not stretching or warming up, and smoking everybody in a sport.
  15. Signed a 4 year deal, good sign ETA: Browns agreed to terms with second-round supplemental pick WR Josh Gordon on a four-year, $5.3 million contract. Analysis: Although the team's brass expects Gordon to contribute as a rookie, the challenge will be picking up Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense after playing in Baylor's spread formation, then spending last year as a redshirt practice-only player at Utah. Expected to battle Greg Little for No. 1 receiver duties down the line, Gordon falls in the 20-25 range in Dynasty rookie drafts next month.
  16. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/12/browns-expect-josh-gordon-to-play-right-away/
  17. Julio is the best player in that deal, by far. Quality always trumps quantity.In FF, not in the NFL. Give me 3 quality starters vs 1 pro bowler any day.
  18. I'm with Icon on being careful. I had a great girl for a year, but her mother was bigger than I would like at that age and it was a factor in ending it. My current girl, literally has a 6 pack and her mom is fit/skinny.
  • Create New...