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Posts posted by moleculo

  1. Just now, culdeus said:

    It's going to vary wildly by industry whether it's a raw material, or labor shortage, driving it.  

    It makes sense to me that a labor shortage could be related to inflation.  I know we are seeing that too.  I don't think that's at fault WRT the various commodities listed, except maybe truckers and lumber.

  2. 1 minute ago, JAA said:

    but inflation!!

    I don't know that this is really an inflation thing.  It's not a matter of things being more expensive, it's that we physically can't get them.  Obviously, that drives up prices but this doesn't feel like it's just a devaluation of currency thing.

    I think it's more about the disruption to supply chains brought on by COVID finally working it's way thru the system.  Demand increased much faster and ahead of supply after both being suppressed for most of last year.

    I'd love to hear more from actual economists about the causes and effects of these shortages.

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  3. 41 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

    Tin - This is a big one too.......


    A tin squeeze is developing on metal markets which has the potential to make the recent fun in GameStop seem like a minor skirmish because tin is a critical element in modern electronics and governments are starting to take notice.

    The most obvious sign that tin is being squeezed between excess demand and a supply shortage is the cash price for immediate delivery, up 80% since this time last year from $14,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to $25,290/t.

    well, the good news is if you can't get microchips, you don't need tin solder to attach them.

  4. 8 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

    Winter Wheat

    Frozen Orange Juice

    Pork Bellies...which are used to make to bacon.  Which you would find on a bacon and lettuce and tomato sandwich.

    Okay, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody is waiting for it to hit rock bottom, so they can buy low. Which means that the people who own the pork belly contracts are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f... my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it.

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  5. My kids (12 & 14) have had phones for years.  We use screentime to limit their usage and what apps they are allowed to use.  We also use bark to monitor content (but rarely check it) and life360 for location tracking.

    No Facebook, no Snapchat, no Instagram, no Twitter.  They use their phones to communicate with friends, play games, listen to music, and other misc things.  

    They have a lot of freedom but are locked down pretty well at the same time.

  6. This season obviously comes down to Lock.

    On paper, Broncos have one of, if not the best defenses in the league - pro-bowl safeties in KJax & Simmons, former all-pro in Fuller @ CB plus Darby, Callahan & Surtain II.  Von and Chubb on the edge, and an above average IDL.  Only weak spot is mlb but Alexander Johnson has been more than adequate.

    It's a young and loaded offense at the skill positions, a pro-bowl LT, good guards.  Cushenberry struggled last year, if he doesn't improve, Meinerz will be the guy.

    The only thing holding this team back from a deep playoff run is QB play and I suppose depth.

    Everything is set up for Lock to be the guy.  If he struggles like he did last year, Teddy comes in and Broncos go 8-9 or something like that.

    Rodgers, of course, makes the Broncos an instant contender but I think that's a distraction at this point.


    4 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

    26000 is what % of 200000000 = 0.013%



    People are being killed twice as much with drug overdoses as they are of covid19 under 50 years old

    Startling isn't it ? Such pressure and reactions to a virus that kills 1/2 what drugs do. Its amazing to me every day how people can be so misled in what they believe in.



    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/overdoses-are-leading-cause-of-death-americans-under-50/#:~:text=CLEVELAND%2C Ohio -- Overdoses are,more than the year before.

    CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Overdoses are now the leading cause of death of Americans under the age of 50.

    According to preliminary data compiled by The New York Times, deaths last year likely topped 59,000 -- 19 percent more than the year before.


    Your question was - "my trivia question for today is .... what are the chances a healthy person under the age of 50 gets covid and dies ? give me a percentage."

    however, the 200M is not all healthy people under 50, that number is all people under 50.

    I think I read that  around 2/3 of Americans have at least one comorbidity - high blood pressure, asthma, cancer, over weight, smoker, etc.  We aren't a healthy people.  

    17 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

    Is this one of those SAT questions where we are supposed to choose "D - not enough information to determine the answer"?

    @Alex P Keatonwas correct - we don't know the number of healthy people under the age of 50, nor do we know the number of people under 50 who died of COVID who were healthy.

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  8. Has anyone drawn a parallel to cutler's tantrum in 2008?  New management comes in and immediately talks about bringing in Matt Cassel.  cutler pouted his way out of town.  New management was forever hated and was fired 2 years later (although he did go 6-0 with Kyle Orton before the wheels fell off).

    cutler and Rodgers are no where near the same level of ability or pedigree.  cutler was entering his 4th year and had never won more than 8 games in a season.

    I definitely sided with management in that fiasco but with full benefit of hindsight, I came to REALLY dislike mcdaniels too.  Sometimes both sides are at fault.

  9. 41 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

    I think it's as simple as they looked back and thought "hey this worked before when we got Rodgers, let's try it again!"

    But it was completely different with Rodgers.  Rodgers was a top 3 overall prospect that year than had a 50/50 shot of going #1 overall.  When he fell and they had a chance to draft that kind of prospect to a roster with a current 37 year old QB they had to take it.  There was no such scenario with Love, who was no better than fair market value at that point and one could argue they even reached on a little.

    Also fwiw, 37 for a QB was different then than it is now when guys are playing at a high level for longer.  We kind of saw this as Favre pretty quickly fell off a cliff and GB was 4-12 during Rodgers' rookie year.

    to be fair, Favre didn't fall off a cliff in 2005.  Yes, the Pack had a bad year that year.  they went 8-8 in 2006, 13-3 in 2007, Favre returning to the pro-bowl.  He went to the Jets and then Vikings where he went 12-4 and was a, OT game away from the Superbowl.  He didn't fall off the cliff until 2010.

  10. 44 minutes ago, Courtjester said:

    Bronco fan here--I really like the draft.

    I saw the needs at the start as RB/OL/LB/CB/EDGE and Denver really checked those boxes. I wish they would have picked up an additional OL prospect, but maybe they will address that from the undrafted pool of players. 

    It is hard to be patient, but with Paton in charge, this is going to be a process. Denver was already one of the youngest squads last year and I bet we are close to that this year. I am so happy we didn't go after Fields. I may eat my words, but I am just not seeing him as the answer for Denver.. As someone mentioned above, Denver needed all the healthy CBs and defensive players they can get to slow down these AFC West offenses and they got that. The way I see it (if there isn't a surprise in June), Drew and Teddy get their shot this year. If it doesn't pan out, fine. Another losing season--high draft pick. but then Denver goes all in on a veteran QB or sees what is available in the draft. Meanwhile all these young guys we have now are getting experience and will be better positioned when this team is ready

    my concern is that by the time we find the next great QB, the youngsters will have "graduated".  unrestricted FA's after this season: Von, Bridgewater, Fuller, Gordon, Callahan, Kareem Jackson, Patrick, Alexander Johnson, Sutton.  That's a lot of pending FA's, and probably what this draft was about addressing - Surtain, Williams, and the safeties for sure.  I think most of these guys will walk - they will want to get paid or play for a contender.  If we don't get improved QB play, it will be impossible to convince these guys we are a contender and they should stick around.

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  11. 3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

    I initially thought the same, but friend of mine in Colorado had this to say about that: “they have Teddy B - if he isn’t the answer, they take a QB of the future next year. They weren’t sold on either jones or   Fields as a fit for their scheme & they think Bridgewater might be.”

    I’m not a Denver fan, but in that light it does make sense. It’s risky for 2021, but I guess if it doesn’t work out, the upside is that they pick early again & the team gets that much better for 2022. 


    If they were the case, the shark move is to trade back from 9.  Allegedly bears offered a 2022 #1, which would probably be high if Fields busts.  That plus Broncos own #1 would give the ammo to trade into the top 2 or 3, putting them in a GREAT position to reboot if Teddy/Lock can't get it done.

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  12. Broncos fan - 

    I don't follow college football or a lot of pre-draft scouting beyond the first 10-15 players so I have to rely on "expert" opinion of players and I guess Broncos did well.  But here's the thing: I don't think anyone they picked up is a 2021 starter. 

    Broncos did not draft for need, at least need for this year.  A lot of guys that can compete to start, and are likely to start next year, and a lot of depth, which is great I guess, but this team was 5-11 last year and I'm not sure the starting 22 got better.

    Our starting needs were QB (but I'm ok with not addressing that), right tackle, center, and middle LB.  I guess Meinerz can play C and Browning can play MLB so both question marks at addressing any team needs.

    Surtain may end up being a HoF CB but I wanted a T or MLB in day 1 or 2.

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  13. 7 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

    It's a good comparison, yours is longer. 

    Miami went from Griese to Marino(Almost 30 years) but did have a David Woodley bridge of 1-2 seasons and your point is 100% accurate. The staple of most dynasty or I'll expand it to teams that win a lot of games over a long period of time, a decade or more, usually there is a very good QB in the middle of all those wins. 

    That's a pretty good comp too.

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  14. 7 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

    Give him a break. If you are a donkey fan you have to cling to the idea QB's working out are just luck. It was bad luck that den passed on Josh Allen. This year it may one day turn out to be bad luck that they passed on Fields falling into their lap. Terrible luck that team.

    I have not forgotten what the Bolts were like between Fouts and Brees. 

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  15. 7 hours ago, Leroy's Aces said:

    Ahh yes, Ron Wolf "lucked" into trading for Favre, and Ted Thompson "lucked" into making the ballsy pick of Rodgers when Favre was still a top QB. What a ridiculous thing to say. Those were both fantastic decisions by bold, smart GMs that turned out unbelievably well for the organization.

    They lucked into two guys who were healthy enough to have long careers.  No Bridgewater/Alex Smith/Tom Brady knee injuries, no Peyton Manning neck problems, no Drew Brees busted ribs, no eroding skills 5 or 6 years down the road like most QB's, no loss of desire like Andrew Luck.

    Seriously, if the Pack knew what kind of player Rodgers was going to be, they wouldn't have let 23 teams have a chance to draft him before their pick.  

    The pack made a couple good moves that turned out extraordinarily well.  15 year, MVP, Superbowl winning QB's are really, really rare, and having 2 back-to-back is even more rare.  Closest comp I can think of is 49ers with Montana/Young but neither of those guys had anywhere near the longevity of Favre/Rodgers.  In the 55 gear history of Modern-era NFL, these two are unique.  

  16. As a bronco fan, I don't there is a price that is too high.  Rodgers would instantly make this team a contender.  I mentioned the skill position offensive players above, but then remember Munchak with a non-COVID season to work with the OL and a top 5 defense (on paper, anyway) and Broncos are legit SB contenders with a top QB.

    Three #1s is well worth a few years of SB runs.  I'd trade Sutton, Chubb, Jeudy, etc.  My only limit is no more than 1 guy from any position group.

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