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Ernol

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About Ernol

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  1. The draft is all about projection.As for Perriman, you feel free to bet on a guy with shaky hands to improve them in the NFL. I'll bet that a guy coming from JUCO can refine his routes so that his athleticism shines through before AND after the catch. And if you don't think your last point is an important factor in any prospect's success, you're crazy. That's part of the reason, besides talent level, that players drafted higher generally have higher success rates. They get the opportunities, and that's important. Because guys with bad hands get benched! The guy Perriman is replacing has horrib
  2. You make good points. Players are not like stocks (in the context you describe) and values differ from league to league, owner to owner. If I truly believed that Gurley were a generational talent, I would trade practically any player for him TODAY in a start 2+ RB league. Going back to 2007 when Adrian Peterson came into the league, I would have traded any RB for him including a 23/24-year old Steven Jackson, even after a 400 point 2006 season! It wouldn’t have mattered if in every other league, Steven Jackson would be valued higher. Every league is different. At a generational level o
  3. The fact that the NFL (at least St. Louis and probably others) thought enough of Gurley to have him picked 10th overall (despite the ACL and the recent trend of no RBs in the first round) means more to me than where he landed. In any case, St. Louis is a fine landing spot imo.
  4. ...Or Eli having an "Eli" year where one years he's awesome in fantasy, the next he looks like he would struggle to place both thumbs up his butt. ...Or the Giants decide its not in their best interest to continue to try to make one player the sole point of their team (is it possible that, with an offseason, other NFL teams might take notice of the opponent who was on track for 200+ targets and adjust?) ...OR the Giants running game improves ...or the Giants o-line improves ...or, in general, as we see time and time and time in the NFL, that teams are very good at adjusting to what other teams
  5. It would be hard to come up with an overpay for OBJ in my estimation. In most of my leagues, it would take a Dez Bryant or Julio Jones plus some for even a glimmer of hope to get him.
  6. behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV such as? Dez, Julio, AJ, Antonio, Odell. only one of those listed is even comparable in age. of course, Im not saying the other guys are old, as they're just hitting their prime years... But Evans is 22. And put up a better Rookie Year than any of those toehr listed WRs (bar beckham), and was just as touted out of college, and drafted higher (not that being drafted earlier means he's better, but just that he was that highly rated out of college, and proved it year 1 in the NFL) Who cares. Nobody's looking out 10 years in a dynasty. 9/10 leagues would
  7. behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV such as? Dez, Julio, AJ, Antonio, Odell. only one of those listed is even comparable in age. of course, Im not saying the other guys are old, as they're just hitting their prime years... But Evans is 22. And put up a better Rookie Year than any of those toehr listed WRs (bar beckham), and was just as touted out of college, and drafted higher (not that being drafted earlier means he's better, but just that he was that highly rated out of college, and proved it year 1 in the NFL) Who cares. Nobody's looking out 10 years in a dynasty. 9/10 leagues would
  8. Considering that the exception was against the #2 rushing defense in the league (twice, where he averaged 4.9 and 5.4), this doesn't seem to say a whole lot imo. Its a bit of a stretch to try to knock down a 4.6 YPC for the season.
  9. I stopped listening after OBJ because I know neither guy had him 1 last year and it showed early bias towards the known results of NFL and not sticking to the grades as prospects.I love most everything DJ puts out but this was crap IMO. What was the context, maybe it was for their careers going forward knowing what we know now? They did still have Watkins ahead of Evans so it wasn't a complete over-reaction from last season. They say it's knowing what they know now but I fail to see how that really helps us grade them as prospects.It helps in relation to the 2105 class. I don't see how it does
  10. Can't say I agree. Went to the SB last year and have a great chance of beating any team other than Seattle who was just a horrible matchup nightmare for them. Well, Peyton has won TWO playoff games since 2009. One of those was against a .500 Charger team that was only in the playoffs because KC chose to sit the entire varsity squad in SD for the last game of the season. I dare anyone to watch the playoffs last season and even make an argument that den was any better than the fourth best team in the league. Saints lose by 8 IN Seattle. SF loses by 6 IN Seattle. Then the broncos lose by 35 to S
  11. I think you're exaggerating the amount of "unknown" with Patterson here. Sure he is not a known commodity at this point but to say Watkins is more known just doesn't make sense to me, at all. Watkins hasn't touched a NFL field yet. He hasn't had to deal with NFL CBs and defenses. He, like any rookie, is a complete unknown like Patterson was last year. The fact that Watkins had a ton of footage to go on in college while Patterson had little impacted their draft position. It doesn't mean much of anything about how their careers will transpire. If there are specific aspects of his game that you f
  12. I agree with most of what you posted. Regarding the bolded, I think Patterson has reached that level (well, almost). While a WR11-12 to a WR1 may seem like a lot of room for upside as compared to RB3 to RB1, because there are more WRs taken in the first few rounds than RBs, the upside remaining is closer to RB3 to RB1 than it is to RB12 to RB1 imo. In the DFWC (6 PPR startups just recently finished), Patterson went as the WR11 (on average) at 2.08, 2.06, 2.06, 2.04, 2.10, 2.09. Gio went 1.11, 2.01, 1.10, 2.01, 2.01, 2.04. There is less upside left for Gio (from 2.01 to 1.01), but not a w
  13. One more way to look at it. Lets say my team has Jimmy Graham (300 points) and a TE that scores 150 points (i.e., the replacement or baseline TE). My WR4 is the baseline/replacement WR at 150 points (in a league that permits 4 WR to start due to flex for example). My team scores a total of 2000 points over the year. Now, let me replace Jimmy Graham's 300 points with Dez Bryant's 300 points. I now have to start a 150 point TE. I lose my weekly "advantage" over all TEs. Dez Bryant provides no advantage at WR1. And yet, my total score at year's end is still 2000 points. All that mattere
  14. Mind going a bit deeper on this one? If Gronk is TE1 and Dez is WR7, yet the VBD is close--I don't think that's accurate. Assuming Dez is in the WR1 spot--only one of the two provided an advantage over the league. It's semantic because points aren't segregated out like that. You don't get "WR1 points" and "WR2 points" and "WR3 points". If Dez Bryant is the 7th best WR, you could say he's your #1 receiver and gives you no advantage, or he's your #3 receiver and he gives you a massive advantage, but you're operating at a bigger disadvantage at WR1 as a result. Neither is accurate, because your
  15. If that's how you measure it. Any baseline below QB3 and TE3 is slanted in Rodgers' favor; it doesn't account for the added advantage Graham gives you over each and every other team in the league, save the Gronk owner. In Rodgers' biggest year, he was 49 points higher than QB3. Graham was 100 higher than TE3 in 2011. Gronk was 140 over TE3. Umm, actually, it does account for exactly that. Here's the math from 2011: ((Rodgers - QB2) + (Rodgers - QB3) + (Rodgers - QB4) + (Rodgers - QB5) + (Rodgers - QB6) + (Rodgers - QB7) + (Rodgers - QB8) + (Rodgers - QB9) + (Rodgers - QB10) + (Rodgers - QB
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