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Everything posted by lyon812

  1. From Twitter: @gregauman: Bucs' Lovie Smith, asked if Josh McCown is his quarterback: "Yes, he is."
  2. I personally think it's too early to put Allen that high. Look at the names among the top 10 dynasty WRs. I don't see what you would base it on to put him there. It does seem like a race around here though to annoint the next greatest everyone, and people do inflate rookies way too quickly for my tastes. Here's an example I'd be curious to see what people around here think. In one of my leagues, a poll question yesterday simply asked which WR would you rather have going forward in dynasty - Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patterson? Mine is the only vote for Harvin. I mostly agree with you. The surprise, to me, is that people seem to be higher on Patterson, Hopkins, and Floyd than Allen. Allen's fall in the draft seemed primarily injury-related, not talent, and he was recently quoted as saying the Vikings planned to pick him but when Patterson fell they couldn't resist. Thus, while I definitely agree it's too soon to anoint, people seem more down on Allen's prospects of being a long-term stud than some other comparable 1st-2nd year players.
  3. Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now. So, my thought is: What am I missing?
  4. Adam, always love your posts dude. Who are 5 backup QB's you'd target as potential stars within 3 to 4 years from now? Can only think of Osweiller, Cousins, Mallett, Nassib (Maybe, opportunity only), Jones (maybe, don't believe in the talent) unless you're still a fan of Chase Daniels... Tyler Bray is hiding out in KC and has a fair amount of talent that Reid could harness.
  5. A great read on Richardson is here: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/23/analysis-notebook-bonus-edition/. I'm not sold on him, nor do I have him on any teams (despite a couple of offers) but I can't shake the feeling that people are going to get rid of him right before he breaks out, just like Lynch. That being said, it's easier to hold onto him in dynasty leagues than it is to figure out where to take him in a startup. I certainly wouldn't take him ahead of Lacy, who plays all three downs and runs with power, agility, and patience. He's great at play-action and ranks 11th in pass blocking. Only Marshawn Lynch forced more than Lacy’s 24 missed tackles on the ground this month, and Lacy ranks sixth with 2.6 ypc after contact. Downplaying him reminds me a lot of how people said that Morris wasn't that talented last year.
  6. That this is what happens when 1. Austin doesn't drop the ball 2. They stop throwing him poorly-designed screens and start utilizing his speed on deep routes, both fly and slant 3. His large gains are not called back penalty
  7. Why? It's what was said when he joined the league. Just an average talent that's replaceable. 6 years later no one says it. Joseph Addai was another one. Thanks, couldn't have answered it better myself. I was echoing EBF's sentiment that people underrated the talented backs that aren't flashy, or don't have the most amazing numbers in a vacuum. In particular, good vision and good hands can go a long way, especially in an offense that suits them or that doesn't rely on them being the focal point (such as Moreno).
  8. Forte is something of a poster child for people saying "he'll be replaced in a couple of years by a more talented back."
  9. And I think you're off on your post rookie season WPA/SR. Allow me to rephrase, as I realize that I might have worded that confusingly: After McCoy's rookie year, he had a 0.02 WPA and 41.7% success rate. Comparing McCoy's career stats to Martin's rookie season is where I felt the analysis is flawed.
  10. I think McCoy's better than Martin, but if we're going to compare numbers, shouldn't we compare them at relatively equal points in their careers? LeSean McCoy’s first 22 games, minus one "are the Giants even trying" 66-yard TD in garbage time in week 8 of his rookie year: 4.12 YPC and 9 career TDs. After McCoy’s rookie year: 0.02 WPA, 41.7% success rate--lower than the career 0.79/46% rate you mention for him. It's hard to know how to weight things like "success rate", which are too easily isolated. Adrian Peterson was 40th last year at 40.1; Jamaal Charles 41st at 40% (tied with James Starks), Ray Rice was 49th at 38.7%. Looking at it from that perspective, Martin being 46th at 39% doesn't seem too terrible considering the company he keeps. Martin's WPA is definitely low, but the website itself states that "WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing." McCoy has obviously gone on to be great. Will Martin? We'll see. But if you're a believer, this is the time to try and buy low.
  11. I can't see anyone parting with Hopkins for Blackmon, particularly since Hopkins has already impressed and has zero off-field problems. Honestly, if anyone's trying to move Blackmon, they need to be targeting WRs that owners might have soured on or are afraid will bust. Tavon Austin comes to mind, though even that's probably shooting high.
  12. He was a top 10 caliber WR in 2011. That is 1.5 seasons ago. He finished just outside the top 10 in the regular season but had 28/444/4 receiving in 4 postseason games. And that postseason run is why a team will give him a big contract to be their WR1. If we're going to nitpick, years: >1; 1.5 >1; 1.5 = years. I don't see a team giving him a big contract. At least as far as guaranteed money goes. But that is just my guess, and likely not worth much. What about a team gambling that he returns to full health and produces like he did in the past? If only takes one team to think he'll return to former glory. Look at the contract Sidney Rice signed.
  13. He had a great 50-yard catch/run/dive TD in the 3Q that was called back. This kid's a playmaker. Even if Cinci spreads the ball around, hard to imagine them not utilizing him and getting him more snaps.
  14. Not to pick on your post, but there are likely many players in the NFL with "possible depression issues" that are performing well. Just because only a few talk about it doesn't mean that it isn't a regular occurrence. Not everyone loves what they do 100% of the time, for myriad reasons. Anyway, for more insight on Lacy's history, I recommend this article: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-rookie-running-back-lacy-has-burden-to-carry-b9951355z1-215404221.html Excerpt: "In 2005, Katrina displaced more than a million people. The Lacys were among them. Before fleeing Gretna, the Lacys propped many items high on shelves. The plan was to return after the storm with a U-Haul and salvage what they could. But even those items — even Lacy's 3-foot high piggybank filled with coins — were stolen by looters. Lacy, his sister and their parents lived house to house, slept on floor to floor, survived meal to meal. First, they evacuated to Texas. They stayed with Lacy's aunt for a while near Baton Rouge, jammed into a three-bedroom home with five other families. Through the "Share Your Home" program, they later found a couple to live with from September to Thanksgiving. Then, finally, they settled into a shoebox of a trailer in Geismar, La."
  15. I don't think anyone is arguing that Michael doesn't have potential/promise. I think that's pretty universally agreed upon. People are arguing about his dynasty ranking. He has a lot of promise, but will he deliver on it? I don't think it's the mortal lock that some think it is. Even if he delivers on his promise, it likely won't be until 2015 at the earliest. Spending RB12-18 prices on him and then waiting that long is a tough pill to swallow. I like Michael, and would welcome him on any of my dynasty teams, but I don't think he's worth a top 40-50 startup pick. Perhaps I'm missing the point, but dynasty ranking isn't limited to where he'd be picked in 2014. It also involves his value as an existing asset on your team. This invariably factors in what was paid for him by 2013 drafters. Michael was typically drafted in early Round 2; as the preseason went on, he started going in late Rd 1. So, he was competing against these players: Zac Stacy Keenan Allen Marcus Lattimore Justin Hunter Robert Woods EJ Manuel Geno Smith Markus Wheaton Aaron Dobson Joseph Randle Zach Ertz Travis Kelce Terrance Williams Stedman Bailey Aside from Stacy and Allen, I don't think there's anyone in that group that holds Michael's potential for upper-tier production. Even if you don't think he'll be top-10, the other players drafted aren't exactly screaming out that they have superior upside. Thus, considering the intersection of price + situation + upside, I'm not surprised that owners are valuing him highly.
  16. I never got to the bottom of this, but the doctor that performed the procedure essentially said: "If Eddie Lacy had what some NFL teams are suggesting, he couldn't physically have played in 2012". Some feared that his toe was fused together, and the Lacy camp disputed that claim. Anyone hear anything definitive? JSonline states "Unlike the typical toe fusion surgery - which hardens the big toe completely, thus limiting mobility - only the bone on the tip of Lacy's big toe was fused. He never needed the full, rocking-chair-like fusion doctors often use. "The joint underneath the toenail was fused to allow the ligament to work better basically," Cain said. "It's something you do to give you a better push-off. His big toe moves just like a normal big toe in terms of motion. . . . If you fused it completely, it'd give you a stiff big toe and you can't push off and that's a big problem. In Eddie's case, he does not have that. His fusion does not affect his big-toe motion." I figure Green Bay's home paper would have done their research.
  17. You make a valid point. I suppose this is a difference in valuation. I anticipate Hopkins and Allen being top-15 weekly WR plays consistently; I'm not saying they are currently (especially with Andre still in the mix). I don't trust Williams to do the same. He's definitely going to produce, but there will probably be more week-to-week inconsistency. This creates an interesting discussion regarding Williams and Patterson: What's more valuable at this point? "Guaranteed" high-WR2 production from Williams, or potential game-breaking upside? By "all potential", I don't mean to dismiss his talent. He's been occasionally jaw-dropping when he's been on the field and as I said, he was my #2 receiver coming into the draft. However, he's had only limited snaps as a receiver, which means the jury is still out on his development (or whether he will.) That's what I mean by all potential--his open-field moves make one salivate, but we haven't yet seen it translate to the WR position. Definitely some of that is QB incompetence, but..see my above "Williams vs. Patterson" question. When comparing people in the same rookie class, lists are necessarily dynamic. It's hard, however, no matter how much you like Patterson, to turn down players that are already doing what you hope that he will eventually be doing.
  18. Top 10 lists are hard, because it depends on what you’re valuing. For example, Allen vs Patterson. One’s proven he can do it now, over a multi-week period, and looked good doing it. The other is still all potential. I tend to view potential turned into success as superior to potential that remains potential, as long as that success looks to be a product of the individual’s talent rather than a lucky situation (i.e. volume carries, garbage yardage, soft defenses, etc). Likewise, the value of viable starting RBs in most leagues raises their value. If I could trade Allen, Reed, Hopkins, or Bell for Eddie Lacy right now, I would. Lacy - For real. Watching him is pretty impressive. He breaks tackles, runs hard, sees holes, can catch the ball...best situation + talent combination. Bernard – Great in passing game, but not sure he’ll hold up as featured back. Upside higher than Stacy, but right now he isn’t running as well. Stacy – He's running with toughness, vision, and decisiveness as a downhill, one-cut-and-go runner. He’s even getting some looks in the passing game. Not sold that his physical upside is the same as Lacy or Bernard, but it's hard to watch him and not be impressed. Allen – Early in 2012, people were calling him the #1 receiver off the board. Then everyone soured on him. Now, he’s looking like that early call was correct. Michael – Based on pre-draft ranking, situation, plus looks in preseason and garbage time in regular season. Looks like the real deal, but a 2-year wait is hard for some. Reed – While TE quality is increasing, he may turn the Big 3 at TE into a Big 4. He might have already done it. Hopkins – Thought he was the best receiver in the draft. Glue hands, great routes, wins one-on-one battles, red zone targets, plays like a four-year veteran. Bell – 3-down back with great agility scores, but not traditionally explosive. Hard to get a read on him with limited looks, and wasn't high on him pre-draft. Bad situation, but Pitt seems committed. Eifert – Looks for real, but they have a lot of mouths to feed in Cinci (Green, Bernard, Eifert, Jones, Gresham) and I’m not confident Dalton is the one to make Eifert a star. Patterson - All potential and upside, but remains to be seen if he makes the leap. Had him ranked behind Hopkins and ahead of Austin, Allen before the draft, so this isn’t really a reflection on him as it is players like Reed and Allen showing that they already CAN do it. Williams – Much better than expected, but his output will likely be steady rather than game-winning. Austin – Had a number of plays called back due to penalty, or his numbers would be more impressive. Drops and poor playcalling hold him back, but Bradford was spreading the ball around and diminishing the perceived PPR value Austin had. Edit to add: Rams homer.
  19. Some of that's on the OL. From PFF re: yesterday's game: "Le'Veon Bell only notched 23 yards on 13 carries, but he gained 27 after contact, meaning the O-line generated him -3!" https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/28/refo-steelers-raiders-week-8/
  20. I think the issue with Patterson is that a lot of the people who bought him won't sell for anything less than a king's ransom. Most of the guys who have him in my leagues are the youth-crazy perennial rebuilder types who had top 3-4 rookie picks and will never sell a promising young player for anything less than 95% of his best-case-scenario upside. So unless you want to play the razor thin margin game and move someone like Blackmon or Gordon for Patterson + minor pick, you're probably going to have a tough time getting a deal done. In leagues where I'm falling out the playoff race, I would think about offering Fitz for him or maybe even Marshall, but my hunch is that his owners won't play ball. I might actually send some offers right now to test that hypothesis. I bought him so i was just curious. He was a top 3 pick in most leagues but he hasn't had that breakout yet so i could see some getting a bit uneasy. Last time i saw that kind of open field ability in a guy that size was Dez Bryant. I do like how the Vikings are using him though. For a guy with limited experience, i think kickoffs and 3 Wr sets is perfect for this stage of his development. He's just one of those guys who even in limited time stands out on the field. The deep ball last night against Tramon Williams was a good example. He had 3 steps on him and Tramon had nothing he could do but sweep his legs. I think he's an interesting prospect. I don't like him enough to pay what it would take to pry him away from one of his fanboys, but in a startup draft he could be a nice value. I just had my first offer of Fitz for Patterson straight up rejected. I sent the exact same offer in a different league and I'd bet 95% that it will be rejected. This is a great example to illustrate the difference between dynasty value in theory and dynasty value in practice. Every community dynasty ranking you'll see will put Fitzgerald ahead of Patterson. In reality, the prospect will hold more value to a lot of owners. They would rather have a 22 year old first round pick with 13 career catches than a 30 year old on a HoF career pace. Stuff like this is a big part of the reason why I preach the youth-crazy age-paranoia approach. It is based on practical experience trying to maneuver with these players. In the league where my Fitz offer was already rejected I've offered him straight up for Blackmon, Dez (to two different owners), and Patterson all before those guys had really broken out in the NFL and been rejected without so much as a counter or a "gee let me think about this" in every case. And I'd guess that in every case he was ranked well ahead of those guys in generic dynasty rankings at the time of the offer. I was very surprised to receive an offer of Kaepernick for Fitzgerald, which I accepted. It was very much an outlier in the terms of offers I'm used to receiving.
  21. I've made a few offers on him and owners aren't selling. He is nothing but upside with more PT, and there are few things dynasty owners love more.
  22. meh. after his 93 yard run on the 1st play of the game, he had about 17 ff points. with basically the rest of the game to go, he scored 4 more points. that's fugly. take out that amazing play, and he sucked. LOL Ok, I'll rephrase it if it makes you guys feel better. He sucked for 58+ minutes. I'm not hating on him, but better than Kaep? come on. I actually played him today w/ rivers on a bye, and was shocked at how bad he performed after that run on the 1st drive. 10 / 18 for 88 yards (yes less than his great run for the entire game passing), oh and don't forget the 2 picks. I didn't see the game, so i don't know if the picks were his fault or tips, etc. how is anyone defending that? PIT does have a good pass D, but 88 yards passing for the entire game is very tebow'esque. Kaepernick, Week 5: 6-15, 113 yards, 14 rush yards. You point to how Pryor's owners are "praying for 200 passing yards a game". Kaepernick: 6 games of 199 yards passing or less. Pryor: 2 games with fewer than 216 yards On the season, Pryor's stats are virtually identical to Kaepernick. Personally, I think Kaepernick is more advanced. But acting like someone is being ludicrous for suggesting that Pryor is better is pretty short-sighted.
  23. meh. after his 93 yard run on the 1st play of the game, he had about 17 ff points. with basically the rest of the game to go, he scored 4 more points. that's fugly. take out that amazing play, and he sucked. Not going to argue who's better, but let's not pretend that Kaepernick hasn't had some clunkers. Weeks 2 and 3 come to mind. At this point in fantasy they're pretty similar.
  24. He inexplicably fell in the draft and was touted by Bloom and Waldman. Many thought he would overtake Sanu last year easily, but when he finally got on the field he fought knee and shoulder injuries. Today's performance was a fluke in terms of TDs, but he's clearly become a favorite target of Dalton--just as he was starting to at the end of last year--and in the last three weeks has gone 3-71, 4-57, and 8-122 with 6 touchdowns on 5, 6, and 8 targets. He's made many extremely acrobatic catches, gets red zone looks (obviously) and isn't simply catching garbage yards. Seems like a great person to plug into your WR3 spot.
  25. His percentage of snaps increases only minimally. They ran less plays against Houston He played 38% vs Houston, and 43% against Carolina. Good catch,and true. I suppose the 10 extra snaps and 4 extra targets just gave the impression of him playing more snaps; regardless, he was more involved. That being said, his snap percentage has been creeping up. It had peaked in game 2, then went down again, but has steadily climbed again the last four weeks: 28%,43%,30%,28%,33%,38%,43%
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