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ebzded

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  1. As always, I found using the free tools I made as a side project: Target Sorter and Target Analyzer. Greg Olsen's target share fell from 30.4% last week to a dismal 12.5% this week - did the Texans decide to take away Allen's favorite target, or was this simply because I started Olsen at the flex this week? Alshon Jeffery only had 3 catches on 9 targets, but... 5 of those targets were INaccurately thrown balls. Do we have a Jeffery problem or a Wentz problem? Of players with at least 10 total targets on the season... Darren Waller is tied with Keenan Allen for 2nd place in ACCURATE targets per game, at 8.3 Michael Thomas leads the league in Acc Tgts per game, at 8.5 Cooper Kupp is 4th with 8.0 Acc Tgts per game. Austin Hooper is a well-utilized weapon. Not only is he 5th in Acc Tgt per gm at 7.0, but... This week he had as many accurate targets (9) as short-catch-specialists Christian McCaffery and David Johnson But the median depth of Hooper's targets was a WR-like 9.0, as compared to -1.5 and 0.0 for CMac and DJ. If we relax that 10 target minimum to 9... DeSean Jackson leads the league with 9 accurate targets per game. (Point for Wentz). When does DJax come back again? Leaders in INACCURATE targets per game? (Min 10 targets) Mike Evans (4.0) Golladay (3.8) Devante Parker and Julio Jones (3.5) McLaurin, C. Samuel, G. Olsen, K. Allen (3.3) Leaders in accurate targets of 21+ air yards - five players tied for the lead with 5 each Davante Adams Demarcus Robinson Larry Fitzgerald (!) Mike Evans Tyler Lockett Marquise Brown is tied with Mike Evans for TOTAL targets of 21+ air yards (11), but sadly, only 3 of Brown's deep targets have been accurate throws. Leaders in accurate targets per game of 11+ air yards... The aforementioned D-Jax (4.0) Cooks (3.8) Keenan Allen (3.3) Hunter Henry, John Brown, Michael Gallup, Mike Evans, Preston Williams all tied at 3.0 Miles Sanders is the only RB with min 10 targets who has more air yards (56) than YAC (28). Unsurprisingly, he leads RB's in Median Target Depth at 5.5 - which is higher than Cooper Kupp's median target depth of 5.0 I could probably post 5x as much as the above, but again... the day job calls.
  2. OK @davearm it's not on the Target pages yet, but here it is (the toggle) on the Sortable QB Stats page: https://nocheckdowns.com/app/sortable-stats/ The two little gold chart icons. Kick the tires and tell me what you think? I'll likely be adding this same sort of thing to the other pages tomorrow while watching games.
  3. Field Graphic of Wentz Passes Field Graphic of Rodgers Passes Interactive Version (Select Rodgers or Wentz, then toggle to week 4) Similar accuracy numbers (when accounting for depth anyway), but Rodgers threw 2x as many passes and for > 2x yards. Hard to imagine losing such a game right? Also - Rodgers sure leaned heavily to his right didn't he?
  4. @davearm aww yes we think alike. We tell our biz clients, for instance, that if you're not using "per day" or "per workday" metrics, you may THINK you're steering, but really you're just drifting. But oh boy, there's a lot of work ahead of me
  5. hey folks, we had a glitch in the data for two games in week 3 and that impact target share percentages for folks on 4 teams. see the edit to original post.
  6. Let me check on the site... ok, four for Big Ben alone. Rudolph has four players tied with 1 drop each, I'm sure one of those is also Moncrief.
  7. In the early season I'm trying to give y'all 1-2 new tools per week to complement the excellent stats tools at FBG. So far it looks like Target Sorter and Target Analyzer are the faves, followed by QB Sortable Stats and Passing Dashboard. Today's new tool is Impact of Drops. I suspect it won't be quite as fantasy relevant but maybe I'm wrong about that? I've been wrong before. Some observations and trivia from said tool: Pre-injury, Big Ben was suffering from the highest drop rate in the league. Of currently active QB's, Josh Rosen is now the "leader" in this category. Prescott is 2nd, and therefore has suffered about as bad or worse than Wentz (3rd place), a fact which is driving a lot of saltiness on twitter between Cowboys/Eagles fans. On the flip side, Wentz leads the league in absolute number of receiver errors (11), minimum yards lost on drops (179), and drops on deep throws (21+ air yards) with 4. Both of these NFC east rivals have had 7 (!) receiver errors occur where the ball was thrown beyond the line to gain. 7 of Wentz's 11 drops (and 135 of his 179 lost yds) happened in the 4th qtr of LAST WEEK, perhaps explaining the salience of the narrative. So far this year, no one in the NFL has dropped a pass in OT. Of all people, Derrick Henry leads the Titans in drops. Must be all those deep routes he runs? Pittsburgh pass catchers don't play favorites, as Mason Rudolph is next up after Wentz, placing TWO Steelers QB's in the top 5 of drop/error rate. Before going to the bench, Cam had the lowest drop rate in the NFL - probably in part due to the fact that he was throwing so many inaccurate passes? Of high-volume passing attacks, the Falcons and Chiefs have the lowest drop rates. Anyway, if there's a fantasy angle here, it's probably separating trend from noise: ex: will Pitt's pass catchers continue to suck all year, or will they experience positive regression? Also, given that Wentz lost his two best wideouts for week 3, we can probably expect PHI to regress positively. Buy low on Philly offense? As always, plz feel free to ask questions, make suggestions, etc. AND PLZ SHARE anything you find that's interesting! MODS: as I said in other threads, this is a side project/hobby, and I never intend to charge for it. It's (hopefully) good advertising for my company's business data consulting services, but there's no intention to make money off the football crowd. I'm a longtime subscriber (rcollie, look me up) and in all seriousness owe my career in data to Joe Bryant's VBD article many years ago. Much love.
  8. @Biabreakable that was great. Like I said, I should leave the commentary to folks other than myself. I'm a numbers guy but for some reason when we talk football, I get a bit sidetracked from the discipline. Back to building the tools
  9. Yeah I think so, but only if something forces the Vikings to start throwing more. Injuries, increased strength of schedule (either strong rush d's or strong opposing offenses), or perhaps teams just start stacking the box and daring them to throw.
  10. Yeah it's terrible on mobile. I'm sorry about that, not much i can do on this budget. Microsoft's platform makes desktop easy and low cost but then I have to spend big bucks to get the mobile stuff working. (Maybe in a few weeks if this starts driving any biz to our data consulting company, then I could justify it).
  11. Yeah Dak is KILLING it. By any metric. Check out the depth of target and % attempts beyond sticks metrics for Winston and his receivers. They are throwing deeper than others. But still. Winston isn't winning any accuracy awards. And thanks for the kind words. My pleasure to finally put this out there.
  12. Since you were reviewing Kupp I thought you'd like to know that in follow-on film review today, we subtracted a Kupp week 3 drop and put it on Goff as inaccurate: https://twitter.com/NoCheckdowns/status/1176933701541924871
  13. Absolutely. I want requests like this actually. Keep 'em coming. That's what I'm talking about. Analysis like this. Love it. Keep THAT coming too!
  14. Ya it's not super obvious. When you open the dropdown, if you click NEXT to the search icon and start typing, you should be in business. Let me know if that doesn't work. There's just too many receivers to do the "click on head shot" filter.
  15. Good catch, thank you! I see the problem. Working on it now. EDIT: fixed, but it will take as long as an hour for the fix to ripple thru to the live site. In the meantime, u can see him as "D.J Moore" in week 3 (I believe). After the fix, it will always be DJ no periods.
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