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Lomez

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Everything posted by Lomez

  1. Yes, just waiting for the flood and another me to keep the species alive, but Joe keeps banning him.
  2. Got my basis + a little profit out of TDOC today. Going to let the other 100 freeroll and see what they can do with the merged entity.
  3. You don't think they'd look for a different supplier, potentially, to have a chance to differentiate themselves? Does IMMR have serious competitors?
  4. I always love CAT, but CAT in the $190s is a whole new world to me. I remember watching them for years range-bound in the $80s. They seem like the type of mature company in the type of industry where PE could actually still matter. So I tried to track their PE over time here, but that dip in EPS in 2017 makes the chart impossible to read. So I ran '06-'16, in which their low looks to be sub-5 during '09 (of course), while their high is 29.42 coming out of the financial crisis. They spend most of their time in the teens. Then I ran mid-'18 to current. Mid-'18 as their earnings recovered, it came down from 24.57 June 30 to sub-teens until March '20. It has been straight up since. Currently 32.16. So they're historically expensive. But if you believe Biden will be the President who says infrastructure and then actually does it, they've gotta be a part of that. EPS is nowhere near historic highs, so the denominator certainly has room to bring that PE down.
  5. Deere buy in there is Def a play on Biden infrastructure plan.
  6. I have no idea how it will play out. That's just how I'm analyzing the situation based on two completely separate sets of information. There might be something out there by a reputable source telling you why I'm wrong and a moron. I haven't looked, and I'm not sure I'm selling. But my cost basis is quite low, so I have some cushion to wait and see how things develop.
  7. My understanding of IIPR's business is that some (many?) of the properties they're buying are because a number of these weed companies can't use traditional financing due to the illegality of marijuana at the federal level. If banks can't/won't do business with you, how do you get the financing you need to grow your grow? Many of them own properties they're choosing to sell to IIPR to get the cash up front in order to finance operations or grow their business, and in the process they're signing long-term lease agreements with IIPR to continue using those properties. Because those lease agreements are long-term, it's not like IIPR is going away any time soon. I'm not remotely concerned about that. But growth is a component of their run up to where they are. If the US government makes it easier to pursue traditional financing for companies residing in states where legalization has already occurred, does IIPR lose the source of that growth? Again, it's not like they're folding. And I'm sure they'll still find willing participants. But if they come fewer and further between or that puts pressure on their pricing model, then it's possible we've reached a top.
  8. Jut an FYI for those in MGNI. One of the reasons for the recent fall. Spruce Point Capital Management Releases Report and Strong Sell Research Opinion on Magnite, Inc BY PR Newswire — 10:30 AM ET 01/07/2021 NEW YORK, Jan. 7, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC ("Spruce Point" or "we" or "us"), a New York-based investment management firm that focuses on forensic research and short-selling, today issued a detailed and expansive report entitled "A Repellent Investment" that outlines why shares of Magnite, Inc. ( MGNI ) face up to 50% downside risk to under $14 per share. The full report can be downloaded and viewed at www.sprucepointcap.com. Follow us on Twitter @sprucepointcap for additional information and exclusive updates. Magnite ( MGNI ) was formed in early 2020 following the merger of two advertising technology companies: Telaria Inc. ("Telaria", formerly Tremor Video) and The Rubicon Project, Inc. ("Rubicon"). The merger was predicated upon cost savings – instead of revenue synergies – and to the anticipated scaling of a Connected TV ("CTV") product, which Rubicon could not build alone. CTV advertising has become increasingly popular with the rise of streaming and web-based content distributors such as Hulu, Disney ( DIS ) , Netflix ( NFLX ) and Roku ( ROKU ). However, our research indicates that Magnite ( MGNI ) currently lacks the depth of quality CTV inventory to adequately scale. Spruce Point believes Magnite's ( MGNI ) ~400% share price appreciation since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic is completely unjustified. It appears that the market has largely overlooked the Company's clear growth headwinds and highly-questionable management team, which we believe has been masking business challenges with inaccurate financial reporting. We believe our research shows that management is running two separate businesses, but structuring Magnite's ( MGNI ) financial reporting as if the Company has a lone operating segment. We believe that this dubious reporting style may be allowing Magnite ( MGNI ) to conceal challenges that have seen Magnite ( MGNI ) suffer pro forma revenue decline by 1% year-to-date, while public industry peers The Trade Desk ( TTD ) and PubMatic grow 16%. A high-level overview of some of the detailed findings in Spruce Point's downloadable report includes: Prior to the merger, publicly-available material indicates that both Telaria and Rubicon were hampered with business and accounting struggles. Telaria issued warnings about potential material weaknesses, including in its last 10-K filing, and its reported capital expenditures were negative prior to the merger. Most concerning, however, is our discovery that Telaria made nearly $10 million of assets and liabilities inexplicably disappear from its preliminary closing valuation. Evidence also shows that Rubicon was under severe pressure pre-merger, failing to deliver on expectations with its apparently exaggerated growth opportunities. We believe this explains why Rubicon sought to merge with Telaria, which had at least one revenue driver (CTV). Rubicon stopped regular reporting of key metrics such as Ad Spend and Take Rate and changed its Free Cash Flow to a non-standard calculation in our view. Spruce Point always warns investors to be cautious when key disclosures disappear or when key metrics change. Post-merger, evidence suggests Magnite ( MGNI ) is struggling and running two separate businesses while only reporting one operating segment. We question what management is hiding with two separate businesses and only one set of financials, especially given that at the very onset of the merger, management made clear that both businesses were "quite different" and would function as two separate business units on two separate platforms. Instead, Magnite's ( MGNI ) website provides unique login portals for Telaria and Rubicon, respectively. We also discovered that Telaria still has its own employees – including in financial and accounting roles no less – demonstrating that Magnite ( MGNI ) appears to be misrepresenting and misreporting its business by running two separate businesses behind the scenes. We also find that pro forma revenue results do not add up when combining Telaria and Rubicon reported revenue. As another sign that something is dramatically wrong, Magnite's ( MGNI) pro forma organic sales are down 1% year-to-date 2020 with peers up 16%. We estimate Magnite's ( MGNI ) pro forma operating cash flow is down 143% year-to-date 2020. Evidence suggests Magnite ( MGNI) likely faces significant business headwinds, which are not properly reflected in its currently inflated share price. Despite management's historical and future growth story claims, we believe that the 2020 election cycle had an outsized impact on recent Q3 2020 results, adding an estimated $5 million revenue benefit to its highly promoted CTV business. Absent this one-off contribution, we estimate CTV revenue would have declined 16% on a year-over-year basis. We believe Magnite ( MGNI ) faces business headwinds due to increased customer concentration with XUMO, Pluto and Hulu all coming under control recently by larger corporations. In our experience, rarely is it good news for small vendors when large corporate behemoths acquire smaller, more entrepreneurial companies. Finally, creditors changed Magnite's ( MGNI ) financial covenant from "Adjusted EBITDA" to "Maximum Cash Burn" suggesting that further pressures could lie ahead. We believe Magnite ( MGNI ) is led by a highly-questionable, unimpressive leadership team.An Ineffective CEO: Before joining Rubicon as its Chief Executive Officer, we believe Michael Barrett destroyed value and failed to promptly disclose a Securities Exchange Commission ("SEC") inquiry regarding goodwill impairment accounting in his prior role as Chief Executive Officer at Millennial Media . This discovery – paired with Rubicon management's exaggerated growth opportunities pre-merger – leads us to believe that Mr. Barrett is unfit to serve as Magnite's ( MGNI ) leader. A CFO with a Questionable Past: Magnite's Chief Financial Officer, David Day, has an unimpressive and suspect track record. While holding the Chief Financial Officer role of Spot Runner, the advertising and tech company faced a lawsuit from WPP plc ( WPP ) , which alleged Spot Runner of orchestrating a "pump and dump" scheme. An Inexperienced and Ill-Suited Chief Accounting Officer: With Magnite having recently attained a multi-billion dollar market capitalization, we find it alarming that recently appointed Chief Accounting Officer Shawna Hughes has not held an accounting role since 2013. Shockingly, she recently held human resources leadership roles. We believe analysts have wildly marked up Magnite's ( MGNI ) sales expectations largely on the back of a single quarter and promotion from an analyst with a checkered past. Magnite's shares are heavily promoted by Needham & Company ("Needham"), which blessed the merger with a fairness opinion. We believe that Needham analyst Laura Martin incorrectly models revenue growth as increasing 36% on a year-over-year basis due to an understated pro forma revenue base, when our calculations estimate that Magnite's ( MGNI ) true 2020 expected organic growth is a meager 1.7%. In addition, we believe Ms. Martin incorrectly compares Magnite ( MGNI) to an early The Trade Desk ( TTD ) in terms of market share and growth. Our research suggests this is a long shot. Investors should be aware that legal documents show that Ms. Martin played a role in promoting the 2000 AOL/Time Warner merger, which later settled SEC accounting fraud charges. Legal documents alleged that Ms. Martin was willing to write glowing commentary on AOL so as not to offend management though she was aware AOL was engaging in accounting gimmickry. We believe investors should be incredibly wary of Needham's steep price targets on Magnite ( MGNI ) and conduct their own independent due diligence. It is also notable that insiders have also been sellers of Magnite ( MGNI ) shares, which should give investors serious pause. If these insiders were so bullish on the Telaria-Rubicon merger, we believe they would have been buying stock cheap ahead of the recent price increase, not selling. Please note that the items summarized in this press release are expanded upon and supported with data, public filings and records, and images in Spruce Point's full report. As a reminder, our full report, along with its investment disclaimers, can be downloaded and viewed at www.sprucepointcap.com. Spruce Point has a short position in Magnite, Inc. ( MGNI ) and owns derivative securities that stand to benefit if its share price falls. Spruce Point also has long positions in PubMatic , The Trade Desk ( TTD ) and Roku ( ROKU ) which stand to benefit if their share prices increase.
  9. This seems counter-intuitive, but if we get Federal legalization, does IIPR get hammered?
  10. Unemployment is a joke. $240/wk max. Before they take out taxes. Yes, unemployment is taxed.
  11. What the hell, man? How do you think I got here in the first second place?
  12. Just follow the rules. It's not that hard. Not sure what's wrong with these people.
  13. At the Fry's out here, they set up a table manned by a couple of people handing out raffle tickets. You had to fill out name, number, and address and return that half of the ticket to them. You kept the other half for proof it was yours. They were open from 8-11am handing out tickets. After that closed, they drew winners. I was not present, so I can't speak to that process. No idea how many people showed up either, but I know there was a lengthy line when my wife was there at 8am, and there was not one at all when I got there around 9:45. You didn't have to be present to win, but you had to pick up your bottle by 3pm the next day. I'm told they also had bottles of Blanton's for sale that the early folks cleaned out. And "some other stuff". I have no idea what that entails. A buddy of mine is industry and knows someone involved in this process at the location this evening. Supposedly they're going to have Blanton's and Weller for sale at that location, but that's all second-hand and no idea quantities, prices, etc even if true. I would assume they go on sale at the 4pm time they launch the raffle, but it could have all been there first thing this morning and be gone already. No clue whatsoever.
  14. @kutta Fry's on Jefferson in Phoenix from 4-7pm tomorrow and one in Chandler on Friday if either is near you. I won the one in the west valley.
  15. Won the lottery for a bottle of the 13 yr Pappy Rye today.
  16. We were supposed to have 3 couples over tonight, but my buddy woke up with a sore throat this morning. Apparently we're no longer allowed to ignore that and drink ourselves to the brink of death in order to kill it off. So I guess I have to drink his share, too, out of respect. (From everything I'm reading solo sore throat is pretty far down the list of likely covid indications, so I'm comfortable still making jokes for now) No edibles, though.
  17. I believe history would dictate you'll be locked into the final price of the ticker when it converts, rather than continuing to get the benefit of appreciation after the ticker changes over. Just FYI. Kind of limiting for you. And a prompt for correction if I'm wrong about that.
  18. Apparently the proper response to, "I'm not trying to be a pain in the ###, but..." is NOT, "After all these years, you think I don't know it comes effortlessly?"
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