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plastik

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Everything posted by plastik

  1. I'm pretty sure you can be put on the COVID list for simply reporting that you've been in close contact with someone who tested positive. I think that was the case for many of the players placed on the COVID list so far, as the NFL reported only 10 positive cases among all players and personnel between Aug 21-29, but many more than that were on the list.
  2. If outcomes were random, I suppose you'd win 8.3% of the time, so after Yeldon the rest were all losing propositions. The top four of those RBs would have all gone very late. If there is any lesson here I guess it would be to try to nab one high upside RB in the late rounds who's 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart.
  3. Big time. Thanks, Broadway! One thing concerning the rookies... Rookie running backs were probably pretty helpful at times, I think. Especially at their predraft value. There were some real landmines in Rookie WRs, though... White, Agholor, Perriman, and all of them were going in the first 8 rounds for significant spans if I remember correctly. If it's easy to run the breakdown of rookie RBs vs. WRs, it would be interesting to see. For me, diversity was key, as I made sure to expose myself to almost everyone, but tried to avoid overexposure. As I was drafting I was keeping track of exposure with this google document. I was highlighting players to target with green, made them yellow as I felt I was becomming too exposed, and red if I didn't really want to touch them or felt really over exposed to them. I put players I felt were being over drafted in purple and would only take them at extreme ADP value. I made this list of players with early season ADP. I'm not very savvy with spreadsheets and data, though, and I wished I could have re-sorted players according to ADP as it changed, but I just made due and paired this sheet with current ADP from MFL. In the end, all of my winning teams had either Freeman (3) or Martin (2) at RB, one had both. With all the discussion about early RB being important, it turned out just the opposite this year, with mid-round RBs doing very well. I feel like there will never be a consistent strategy (e.g. take a WR in the 1st and 2nd, or 3 RBs in the top 5, etc.) that can be taken as a rule, because success will always be about picking the players that blow up and avoiding those that get injured or bust. So to me it seems like diversity of approach is key, and to mine value at ADP at all times. If you can do that I suppose you can probably outperform the average. Next year, like this year, I'll probably try every different strategy in at least a few leagues... Early QB with Cam, TE with Gronk, RB early, load up on pass catching RBs late, and so on. Early in the year I'll also be looking to draft players coming off injury like Benjamin or Jordy, as I imagine they'll start with later ADP and creep up as the season approaches. Anyway, my two cents for now...
  4. Yup... and that one change kept me in 1st by .3 points which kept me profitable on the year. I was really unhappy with what I thought was a very narrow loss in that league, a loss that would have put me in the red on the year. In the end I paid for 38 leagues ($380). I won 4 ($400) and came in second in another 4 ($40 credit). That puts me at about 16% return. I feel good about that and will likely roll my whole bankroll into 2016.
  5. Cool and thanks. I did use a similar name ('e'), but I'll wait to ask you for this favor until mid season. I've been manually tracking my 39 leagues. Currently my average place is around 4.6. Hoping to climb a bit as Lamar Miller seems to be rebounding and I am heavily exposed to him (26%).
  6. I've got Freeman in 21% of my leagues, so that's good. I have Miller in more, and that hasn't been so good. I'm doing alright. My best team is at 964, a Gronk team with Freeman and Dalton. I actually have Dalton in 18%, which has also been nice. How do you compile and monitor your stats, Broadway?
  7. the problem IMO is the philosophy and the # of touches. 14, 15 and 10 from your lead back and then you have Jonas Gray come in from nowhere and get 9 carries for 49 yards to Millers' 7 carries for 38 yards. That's not a trend that I'd like to see as a Miller owner. The big appeal in Miller was the "high powered offense" and the fact that he was the only real option in the backfield. Fast forward to week 3 and the Fins offense has been terrible and all the sudden last week he's on the short end of an RBBC with cast away Jonas Gray. I was thinking of buying Miller but I think I'm going to do the cheaper thing and try and add Gray at the end of my bench and see what happens there. Box score scouting. Six of Grays carries For 45 yards came on Miami's final drive when they were basically running out the clock in a blowout. Miller was questionable in this game with an ankle injury, he had no reason to be in on that drive. I agree with the 'buy low.'
  8. Wow, that is some terrible writing. And I mean that completely independent of its content.
  9. I'm curious why you think they'd do better with taylor than someone like Cassell. Yeah, but also some other things too. Taylor looked really accurate in the preseason and both Harvin and Clay are great after the catch, and better yet, they've gone very late in drafts. Harvin is on WWs in one of my short bench redrafts. I could see a situation where BUF is very run heavy so Ds load the box and there's a lot of opportunities in the short to intermediate passing game, where either Harvin or Clay could pick up some nice chunk yardage and post lines like 3/75 with an occasional TD. Nice value for guys as cheap as them, with plenty of upside for more.
  10. Can't wait to see ownership stats. Who will be more highly-owned, Adams or Royal? Probably Adams. Use the querier. Adams (7740). Royal (4970). Adams by a landslide.
  11. Is it just me or does Tyrod starting make guys like Harvin and Clay, almost undraftable in most leagues, now sneaky upside plays? They seem like great end of the bench guys who migh hit early, and if not they're easy to send back to the player pool...
  12. Minor point, but I believe Joique Bell was a UDFA for BUF, then had stints in PHI, IND, and NOS.
  13. Adams way more valuable than Floyd now, wouldn't even think of doing that. Me neither. This guy habitually makes lowball offers, tagging them with: 'it's fair by FF industry standards.' Lol. What a jagoff. I'm in that league with you and I know EXACTLY who you're talking about without even looking to check his roster. Same guy offered me Antonio Gates and a late 3rd for my 1.10 during the rookie draft.
  14. I have Jordy in about 15% of my leagues... Oh well...
  15. We had discussed 'Gronk Teams' a while back, and I recently finished one that I think worked out pretty well. Of course, it all depends on how you feel about certain players, but for me this is one of my best (of six teams where I took Gronk in the 1st): Manning, Eli NYG QB 10.07 Smith, Alex KCC QB 16.07 Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB ® 17.06 Ellington, Andre ARI RB 4.07 Forsett, Justin BAL RB 2.07 Miller, Lamar MIA RB 3.06 Polk, Chris HOU RB 15.06 Ridley, Stevan NYJ RB (O). 19.06 Robinson, Khiry NOS RB 20.0 Agholor, Nelson PHI WR ® 7.06 Decker, Eric NYJ WR 8.07 Johnson, Andre IND WR. 5.06 Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR 6.07 Randle, Rueben NYG WR 11.06 Smith, Torrey SFO WR 9.06 Green, Virgil DEN TE 18.07 Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE. 1.06 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 12.07 Bills, Buffalo BUF Def 13.06 Texans, Houston HOU Def 14.07 One thing I wish I had done differently would have been to take a WR flyer rather than Virgil Green. I also waited really long on rB4 and went a bit overboard when I probably should added a WR in one of those spots too, maybe a 3rd D. It's certainly far from perfect but I'm generally happy with this roster.
  16. It doesn't really bother your daily life. You can pre-draft whenever you want and you have an 8 hour timer once you're OTC. Plus, if you import a pre-draft list it's that much easier. Yeah, I tend to just check in in the morning, after lunch, and right before bed. I predraft if I have anything coming up within 8-10 picks. One thing that definitely suffered for me with playing volume is that I have been a bit less attentive to the composition of other teams, so I'm not as aware, for example, of who might go at the turn between my picks if I have something like 1.03 or 1.08. It takes more work to do that sort of thing, and when I have 4-5 drafts going at a time I tend to make predrafting decisions a bit more quickly.
  17. Same here. I've been lucky with injuries so far... 3% Foster and 0% McCoy.
  18. Yeah, I feel it too, Borden. Though over the last two days things seem to be loosening up. It looks like a lot more random people are entering these, maybe picking up general volume since the preseason started? Seeing things like Manning in the 4th and Tate in the 3rd. Might be some good going for the next week or two.
  19. MFL ADP since Aug 1st has him at 63 overall, an early 6th. Your mocks seem way off relative to that.
  20. He's just a guy. A guy with a job we'd all like to have of course, but my guess is we all know just as much as him. This isn't exactly a science (although in these formats, there's a little more 'science' to it I guess). Yeah, I was just looking over some of his rosters and it struck be how he seems very overexposed to some players. I wonder how diversified he is across all his teams. For example he takes Perriman in the 7th almost every time. Lots of Stevie Johnson between the 12-14th. Eifert often.If someone with access to the developers data is able to I would LOVE to see some statistics on how some of the guys like Silva do this year....pros like: Evan S @lateroundQB Smbloom Thefakefootball.com @ffrittle Last year: Evan S - 0 for 6 (0%) @lateroundQB - 5 for 34 (15%) Bloom - 3 for 11 (27%) ThefakeFootball.com - 4 for 23 (17%) @ffrittle - 10 for 67 (14.9%) Added %. Wow. Really nice for Bloom, and Decent for everyone but Silva, actually. Thanks for this!
  21. He's just a guy. A guy with a job we'd all like to have of course, but my guess is we all know just as much as him. This isn't exactly a science (although in these formats, there's a little more 'science' to it I guess). Yeah, I was just looking over some of his rosters and it struck be how he seems very overexposed to some players. I wonder how diversified he is across all his teams. For example he takes Perriman in the 7th almost every time. Lots of Stevie Johnson between the 12-14th. Eifert often. If someone with access to the developers data is able to I would LOVE to see some statistics on how some of the guys like Silva do this year....pros like: Evan S @lateroundQB Smbloom Thefakefootball.com @ffrittle
  22. Not sure how you obtained your data or how you did your analysis. If teams that selected a RB in the first round won 9.8% of the time, then teams that selected a QB-WR-TE-K-D won 90.2% of the time. Goofy math happening here. You're confused. If YOU selected a RB in the first you had a 9.8% chance of winning that league. As it is a 12 person league, someone else could have won it also drafting a RB in the first. In fact, there would have probably been 6-7 owners that also did so. If everything is equal, each team should have An 8.3% chance of winning (100%/12). So, last year drafting a RB in the first gave you a 1.5% edge. Of course that won't necessarily be the case this year, as the sample size of one year (2014) is awfully small and so much is contingent on the specific players drafted in the 1st last year. Now if this continues to recur over the next 3-4 years, I'd be much more convinced. I find the arguments for team construction much more convincing, because it is less based on where you took players.
  23. I've got a Gronk draft from the 1.06 spot that I like so far. In the 5th: Ellington, Andre ARI RB (P) 177.5 9 4.07 Forsett, Justin BAL RB 231.3 9 2.07 Miller, Lamar MIA RB 199.6 5 3.06 Johnson, Andre IND WR 161.2 10 5.06 Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 266.4 4 1.06
  24. His value is already gone. It was a while ago. He's being drafted as WR24. Ahead of guys like DJax, Andre, Maclin & Floyd.I hadn't looked in awhile. Well, I'll pass then.I should note that is PPR ADP. The standard is a good bit lower. Still, I'll pass at that price, too.He's not going before Andre Johnson is drafts I've seen. Here is the current MFL 10 ADP, after July 15th: 19. Keenan Allen (pick 49.05) 20. Andre Johnson (49.77) 21. Amari Cooper (51.7) 22. Golden Tate (53.13) 23. Sammy Watkins (55.27) 24. Martavis Bryant (55.69) 25. Allen Robinson (59.69) 26. Brandon Marshall (59.8) 27. Jarvis Landry (61.9) 28. DeSean Jackson (62.82) 29. Jeremy Maclin (63.08) I think he's still decent value at that spot.
  25. I didn't think you could make any adjustments to your team once the season starts. You can't. It's a running joke made every year, kind of like hazing the 'rookies.'
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