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Everything posted by Arodin

  1. This is the entirety of your post. The bolded is made without qualification, and the second paragraph is an assessment of the specific trade you were replying to. The third paragraph is sound strategy, but not relevant to the first paragraph. (It even undermines it to an extent, by suggesting that 1.12, which is almost a 2nd round pick, is worth less than a 1st next year. Not that next year’s pick would be worth less for being a year out.) Accordingly, it’s rather rude and insulting to double down with an accusation that people aren’t reading what you wrote, and implying we are all i
  2. The thing is, picks and players are fungible. If you say trading a player for a 2022 1st is the same as trading him for a 2021 2nd, I disagree. I would happily trade my 2021 2nd for a player I could flip into a 2022 1st and achieve the result I described (assuming most owners subscribe to the “one round per year” fallacy to facilitate the trades). Put differently, if I have two offers on the table for the same player - a 2021 2nd or a 2022 1st - I take the first every time.
  3. Not directed at you so much as a critique of this “rule of thumb.” In my opinion, the value of “random 1st” is usually so far ahead of the value of “random 2nd” that I would happily trade every 2nd round pick I ever own for 1sts the next year. After just a year of doing this, I start having two 1sts in perpetuity, which is strong trade value even if I don’t use them myself. I think the rule holds more reliably for mid-round picks, where the difference between “random 3rd” and “random 4th” is much lower. I love seeing this rule propogated though...the more people in my leagues who b
  4. Only three of these that strike me as better than Trubisky. A youngster would be better, imo.
  5. Maybe more people will adopt 2-week Super Bowls. Love that as a way of reducing variance and letting the best team (that gets there) have an advantage.
  6. In my assessment, Godwin and Adams are both potential top-10 WRs for a LONG time. Lockett and Dede conceivably could be viewed similarly by some owner somewhere, but their consensus value is a tier or two lower. Let’s call Wentz and Jones a wash. Both are servicable starters, either could be great, both could flop. Tate has been around long enough to be basically a solid bye week filler/bench depth, but doesn’t swing the needle much. Do two 2nds make up the difference between two top-tier players and two lesser ones? Not in my book. I’d say you got fleeced and badly. Rul
  7. I think the most valuable piece in this trade was your trade partner’s freed-up roster spot. Think I’d have tried to trade for just a pick (and a roster spot) instead. No way to get a 3rd? Even 2021?
  8. In Zealots’ format, Ryan probably is “worth a 1st.” The very deep rosters create positional scarcity, which is the primary driver of positional value. When owners are able to horde QBs without paying a crippling penalty to their bench depth, it makes “replacement value” extremely low, and thus rostered QBs are worth more than in other leagues. Similar to the inflated values of the elite TEs. Not enough to go around means paying a premium to get someone else to part with one.
  9. If you drop them this late in the bye week season, you'll never get them back. Ride them, unless you're at a win-or-go-home stage of the season.
  10. As a Julio owner with a contending team, if all I could get for him now was a late 1st I’d let him retire on my roster. If I am a rebuilder, then I might settle for the first, but would aggressively try for more.
  11. You are likely runnng afoul not only of the “magical age of 30,” but the dreamy magic of the 2020 class, which is being talked up like the second coming of the Kelly-Marino year. 1sts have been much harder to acquire than usual this season.
  12. I just hope “growth” doesn’t mean “Snyder told me Haskins’ role had better grow fast if I want my bank account to keep growing.” But I have my suspicions.
  13. One of these things is not like the others... I would be holding tight to Adams, Juju and Hopkins in dynasty but would LOVE to flip Green for either of those younger WRs.
  14. A little light...you should have gotten him to throw in TO or Ochocinco too.
  15. It’s also been asserted that having Bryant as your FG kicker costs two roster spots because his kickoff skills aren’t up to par. So unless the team’s punter excels at kickoffs you’re looking at a kickoff specialist. I haven’t checked the numbers to verify that (I’m at work), but if true it could explain his surprisingly long unemployment.
  16. Yep, this is a classic example of a deal where my preference depends on team makeup. If I am a contender, I happily move that package for Hill as a piece that could combine with a strong roster to push me over the top. If I’m rebuilding, Hill is likely my most valuable asset and I get to turn him into 3-4 strong pieces for a future lineup.
  17. Watson > Rodgers, and what a gigantic salary dump. The $57 cap savings is a major piece of this deal. Juju >~ Diggs. I would want something added to Diggs for Juju, but could see others feeling differently. Still, let’s say this difference offstets the salary dump. In short, I’m calling Rodgers/Juju for Watson/Diggs close enough to not get worked up about. That leaves Allen, Watkins, Henry, a late 1st and a late 2nd vs. Kamara. If I’m the weaker team getting all those pieces I’d prefer better prospects than Henry and Watkins, but maybe you take what you can get? If this i
  18. Doesn’t seem way off base, since 2020 1st valuations are through the roof right now. Could just be the other guy doesn’t like Washington. You might come back with 1st for Ridley if you really want him.
  19.  I assume he will be in competition with Brandon Powell. I wouldn't be surprised if they sign someone to try out as well.  If he’s only competing with himself, sounds like he has this all locked up!
  20. If I owned Shepard I’d snap-accept an offer of next year’s 14th pick. Even if only for the perceived trade capital that pick would carry through the season. If you would pay more, that’s a situation where you should be actively targetting Shep, not waiting for someone to shop him.
  21. Possibly a consequence of your trading them all away? A shrewd trade partner is going to see that as a desperate position and charge you a premium. (Where possible trade picks for depth first, then deal away the guys you didn’t want.)
  22. If you’ve already drafted, then give every owner a pile of extra FA bucks and have an open auction. Actually even if you haven’t drafted that’s a better plan than using the draft. Having the 1.1 go from Josh Jacobs to DeAndre Hopkins isn’t really fair to owners who traded picks with certain expectations. Some will say give the weaker teams more bucks in the auction but I would disagree. This is too big a boost for the weaker teams. (As to where to post it, probably deserved its own thread.)
  23. From the article: This should fill Redskins fans and Haskins owners alike with overwhelming confidence... Seriously, how many of the NFL’s franchises would have owners involved in choosing a starting QB? More than two?
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