Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

ZWK

Members
  • Posts

    3,668
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by ZWK

  1. Officials threw a flag on the play, and for some insane reason the defense declined the penalty. The penalty for Brady's double pass was 5 yards from the previous spot, replay the down. The result of the play was an 8 yard gain on 3rd & 10. So LAR had a choice of giving TB 3rd & 15 or 4th & 2. They chose 4th & 2, which was the right choice given that TB then punted.
  2. And I'm out. 215 week 1, 141 week 2. If any of Alvin Kamara, Deebo Samuel, Corey Davis, Antonio Brown, Nelson Agholor, or Darren Waller had swapped their wk1 game with their wk2 game then I would've survived. I'm going to pin it on Kamara, though.
  3. In my (pre-wk1) opinion, these are some of the best options at QB/RB/TE/WR that are on less than 5% of rosters: 3.5% QB D Prescott DAL $22 1.6% QB J Goff DET $8 4.7% QB T Taylor HOU $4 2.0% RB S Barkley NYG $28 5.0% RB C Hyde JAX $4 3.9% TE H Henry NE $9 4.7% TE D Parham LAC $3 1.9% WR A Cooper DAL $22 3.3% WR D Samuel SF $13 3.8% WR M Thomas NO $13 3.4% WR M Williams LAC $12 2.3% WR C Beasley BUF $10 0.7% WR R Bateman BAL $8 5.0% WR E Sanders BUF $7 4.4% WR N Agholor NE $6 4.0% WR S Watkins BAL $5 4.7% WR A St. Brown DET $5 1.1% WR Q Cephus DET $4 2.8% WR N Collins HOU $4 3.7% WR K Hamler DEN $4 3.8% WR J Crowder NYJ $4 1.4% WR D Eskridge SEA $3 2.0% WR K Toney NYG $3 2.2% WR D Robinson KC $3 4.8% WR D Jackson LAR $3 I've bolded the ones on my roster.
  4. Based on these numbers from @Ignoratio Elenchi, the average teams has QB: 2.9 for $35 RB: 5.2 for $84 WR: 6.4 for $82 TE: 2.5 for $32 PK: 2.2 for $8 DEF: 2.3 for $9 tot: 21.4 for $250 and the average player on their team is on 15.3% of rosters. In the past few years, these numbers were QB 2020: 2.8 for $34, 2019: 2.6 for $34, 2018: 2.9 for $31 RB 2020: 5.2 for $88, 2019: 5.3 for $83, 2018: 5.4 for $86 WR 2020: 6.0 for $82, 2019: 5.7 for $82, 2018: 6.4 for $83 TE 2020: 2.5 for $28, 2019: 2.3 for $30, 2018: 2.5 for $30 PK 2020: 2.2 for $8, 2019: 2.2 for $10, 2018: 2.3 for $8 Def 2020: 2.3 for $9, 2019: 2.2 for $12, 2018: 2.3 for $11 tot 2020: 21.1 for $250, 2019: 20.3 for $250, 2018: 21.8 for $250 roster% 2020: 11.7%, 2019: 15.4%, 2018: 13.1%.
  5. I set up a free MFL league to track my team's scoring. Unfortunately, it looks like you need to get a pay league in order to turn on the option to allow a player to appear on multiple rosters, or else I would offer to add more people's rosters to this bootleg calcomatic.
  6. Since we don't have the contest querier yet, I searched this thread to see the number of hits for the names of some of the more commonly owned players: 40 "gus edwards" 39 "james robinson" 39 "marquez callaway" 33 "sony michel" 33 "rhamondre stevenson" 30 "bryan edwards" 28 "antonio brown" 22 "jakobi meyers" 22 "corey davis" 21 "evan mcpherson" 19 "michael pittman" 16 "marquez valdes" 16 "trey lance" 14 "ben roethlisberger" 13 "tom brady" 13 "justin fields" 12 "travis kelce" 12 "gerald everett" 9 "darren waller" Probably a pretty good indicator which players are more common players in the contest.
  7. Max size roster, paid up for a few high-end players, got a lot of cheap guys, bought in to most of the obvious deals. I wanted to go even bigger (maybe split Deebo up into 4 more cheap options) but had to limit myself to 30. QB: 3 for $19 26.7% - Justin Fields - CHI/10 - $7 17.2% - Trey Lance - SF/6 - $7 9.3% - Teddy Bridgewater - DEN/11 - $5 Got a great combo of cheap & late-season upside, but am really rolling the dice with 0 of the 3 having a safe hold on the starting job & only Bridgewater as a week 1 starter. I knew I'd get at least 1 of Fields+Lance as soon as I looked at the pricing; we'll see how it works building my QB unit around the both of them. Could sink me, could come through big while letting me spend $ elsewhere. Could've paid a few bucks more to upgrade to someone safer than Bridgewater (but unclear if they'd be an upgrade in weekly production), could've gone for one of the $17ish guys instead of Teddy (I like them but that's a big boost in salary - might've just gone with 2 in that case, e.g. Brady + Fields), could've added Tyrod for additional insurance (but that uses another roster spot, and paying for insurance is generally not the way to win a huge contest). RB: 5 for $70 5.5% - Alvin Kamara - NO/6 - $35 44.8% - James Robinson - JAX/7 - $16 64.9% - Gus Edwards - BAL/8 - $11 35.0% - Sony Michel - LAR/11 - $5 26.3% - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/14 - $3 RB is the priciest position, so I wanted to aim to flex elsewhere while having just enough firepower here. Got 4 obvious guys, and paid up for Kamara. Picking a top RB this year was tricky because they basically all have a tough wk15-17 schedule - could've gone with Barkley ($7 cheaper with similar upside) or Najee (one of the best backs with a soft playoff schedule). Strongly considered Ingram for $3, and would've taken Hyde for $4 if I didn't have another Jacksonville RB. WR: 12 for $81 3.8% - Michael Thomas - NO/6 - $13 3.3% - Deebo Samuel - SF/6 - $13 17.7% - Corey Davis - NYJ/6 - $10 27.5% - Antonio Brown - TB/9 - $10 4.4% - Nelson Agholor - NE/14 - $6 23.2% - Jakobi Meyers - NE/14 - $6 47.5% - Marquez Callaway - NO/6 - $5 2.8% - Nico Collins - HOU/10 - $4 24.6% - Bryan Edwards - LV/8 - $4 3.8% - Jamison Crowder - NYJ/6 - $4 2.0% - Kadarius Toney - NYG/10 - $3 24.4% - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/13 - $3 A whole bunch of good values at WR this year, and I wanted to collect as many as I could fit. There were others who I couldn't quite find room for, like Demarcus Robinson ($3) & Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5). Overpaid a bit for Deebo (relative to, say, Michael Pittman) since he gives me a stack and I expect him to be on fewer rosters. Should get plenty of flexable weeks from this oversized WR room, and despite the lack of high-priced WRs I think this group has the potential to put up some big games and not just provide a high floor (fingers crossed on the return of Michael Thomas). TE: 3 for $64 18.3% - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $30 9.9% - Darren Waller - LV/8 - $27 18.8% - Gerald Everett - SEA/9 - $7 Kelce has the highest FBG projection among all non-QBs but the 9th highest price. Waller is not far behind. So this is where I paid up for players who can score lots of points. Almost took Kmet ($7), but I sacrificed him to get Deebo (and couldn't quite bring myself to part with Everett instead). TE was thin on cheap options - I considered Arnold ($4) & Parham ($3) but didn't like them quite as much as the WRs. PK: 3 for $8 13.1% PK - Daniel Carlson - LV/8 - $3 5.3% PK - Tristan Vizcaino - LAC/7 - $3 11.0% PK - Evan McPherson - CIN/10 - $2 Would've liked to get 4, but with rooster space at a premium and a lack of $2 kickers I settled for 3. TD: 4 for $8 9.2% TD - Philadelphia Eagles - PHI/14 - $2 2.1% TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2 7.0% TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/7 - $2 7.2% TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/13 - $2 I love collecting $2 players, especially when their weekly ceiling is about as high as anyone else at their position, but restrained myself to only using 4 roster slots here. Liked these 4 mainly because of the QBs they face wk15-17: HOU, NYJ, NYG (2x), MIA, WAS (3x), SF, PIT, NE, ARI. I love these big barbell-shaped rosters. Straightforward path to being solid, and can hit big if a couple high-end guys come through. My rosters usually have roughly this shape. This is the most WRs I've ever taken & the fewest PKs; also the most I've spent on TE & the least I've spent on QB. The 30 player constraint chafed more than it usually does. The two items at the top of my wishlist this season are a big year from Kamara, and for things to work out for this QB group. I'm light on stacks this year, with just Lance+Deebo. I think stacks aren't quite as important when your QB runs the ball. Maybe should've gone with Kmet over Everett. Week 6 is my toughest bye, with 7 players for $87 out including Kamara. Though that includes Trey Lance & Michael Thomas, who I wasn't counting on for that week anyways. Only $5 on bye week 13 and $17 week 14.
  8. Rolling with 30, big roster as usual. Would go bigger if I could. I came up with a 40-player roster that would be tempting if it was street legal. Still paying up for a few high-end players - 3 on my current roster, 2 on my 40-player monstrosity.
  9. This is my first time in ABLC after a bunch of years of regular Anarchy leagues, and it looks like a tough contest to win. 32 teams so only 1/32 win. Only 10 rounds, which is not that many chances to separate yourself. A long time between picks, which means you don't have a shot to draft a lot of players that you like or who fall farther than they should. QB 8.22 QB Patriots NE (QB30) I think there aren't any terrible options this year, so I was pretty content to get whoever at the end of the draft (especially considering some of the guys going in rd10 at other positions). I strongly considered Mahomes at 1.11 because of his playoff value, but once I passed on him QBs kept getting drafted before they even made it onto my radar as options. Until round 8, when QB Patriots was surprisingly still available as QB30, and I decided to snatch them up. The Patriots went well before this in the regular Anarchy leagues, and there's a lot to like here: Cam will scores points with his legs as long as he's playing, Mac Jones will hopefully only play if he looks good, their receiving corps has gotten major upgrades since last year, they got pretty good production out of Garoppolo & Cassel in past years, and they have some playoff potential. The downside of this pick is that it knocks both my kicker and defense down a tier, and the Tyrod Taylor Texans have some advantages too (like game scripts & QB rushing). Other than Mahomes, the QB picks that seemed like the most solid values were Bucs (1.31), Ravens (2.04), Cardinals (2.12), Saints (3.27), and Texans (10.21). RB 1.11 Saquon Barkley NYG (RB7) 6.22 JD McKissic WAS (RB52) Barkley has a shot to be the top scoring non-QB - I think a better shot than any of the other guys who were available at 1.11. Obviously tons of injury risk, but you need some things to break your way to finish 1st out of 32 so I'm taking a shot at this one. McKissic is on the opposite end of the spectrum, going for OBP rather than SLG - in the back half of the draft, I'm mainly just trying to not have any holes in my lineup and his receiving value should contribute. I guess he has some upside too, given what he did last year. I like these two a lot more with PPR than in the regular Anarchy leagues. I would've loved to get Najee Harris in rd2 or Travis Etienne in rd3, but they didn't quite make it to me (they went 2.16 & 3.10). Other good RB values include Joe Mixon (2.08), Antonio Gibson (2.09), D'Andre Swift (2.14), Chase Edmonds (3.22), Ronald Jones (4.27), Kenyan Drake (5.12), AJ Dillon (5.21), Nyheim Hines (5.30), and Darrynton Evans (10.08). WR+flex 2.22 Cooper Kupp LAR (WR20) 3.11 Courtland Sutton DEN (WR28) 4.22 Curtis Samuel WAS (WR45) 5.11 Michael Pittman IND (WR54) We go significantly deeper at WR in this league than in the regular Anarchy leagues, so I wanted to be pretty aggressive about getting WRs before we get too deep. Taking 4 in the first 5 rounds was more aggressive than I needed to be - there were reasonable options available into rd8 - but I'm pretty happy with the ones I got. And I was mainly considering these guys vs other WRs (like Julio & Lockett in rd2, Golladay & Anderson in rd3, Fuller in rd4, Marquise Brown in rd5). Kupp has a QB upgrade & potential playoff value, Sutton could be a star, Samuel has gotten a lot of love in some quarters (including Reception Perception), Pittman could have a year 2 breakout & should at least have a pretty big role. Downsides include injury issues for Sutton & Samuel. I was crossing my fingers that Tyreek Hill would fall to me at 1.11, but he went 1 pick earlier. Some other WR picks I liked, besides the guys I've mentioned: DeAndre Hopkins (1.24), Antonio Brown (4.10), Will Fuller (5.05), Jakobi Meyers (7.04), Rondale Moore (7.12), Sterling Shepard (7.15), Terrace Marshall (7.24). TE 7.11 OJ Howard TB (TE30) Without premium scoring, TE wasn't a priority for me. Kelce is a great option in early round 1, but other than that TEs went off the board rather early for my taste (and the few exceptions didn't align with my picks). I grabbed Howard in round 7 because he was the last one left who offered both an adequate most-likely scenario and some upside. Though he also has that injury risk, and he may need some help to reach his upside (in the form of missed games or decline from at least 1 of Gronk, Antonio Brown, Godwin, and Evans). Besides Kelce at 1.07, I also liked the picks: Hunter Henry (6.06), Gerald Everett (6.16), and CJ Uzomah (8.28). PK 9.11 Graham Gano NYG (PK21) I would've loved to get Butker in rd6 but just missed on him. After that, I mainly just wanted to get a clear starting kicker. Strongly considered Crosby in rd7 and McManus in rd8 before ending up with Gano in rd9, doubling up on Giants (along with Football Teamers). In addition to the guys I've mentioned, Justin Tucker (6.15), Jason Meyers (8.04), and Josh Lambo (9.22) were also all good values. DEF 10.22 Cincinnati Bengals CIN (DEF30) I know that defense isn't irrelevant in this format - I can see that scores last year ranged from over 200 down to negative numbers - but there's enough uncertainty about which ones will be good so that I was willing to roll the dice on one of the last defenses. I would've rather gotten a rd9 defense - that was the sweet spot in this draft IMO - but QB Patriots swayed me from that plan so I ended QB Patriots - PK Gano - DEF Bengals instead of PK McManus - DEF Giants - QB Texans. We'll see which trio does better. All of ATL (9.19), NYJ (9.28), and NYG (9.29) seem like good values. So that's my draft. RB-WR-WR-WR-WR-RB-TE-QB-PK-DEF.
  10. TMQB: Cardinals (2.12), Saints (6.12) RB: Antonio Gibson (3.05), D'Andre Swift (4.12), Damien Harris (7.05), Zack Moss (9.05) WR: Brandon Aiyuk (5.05), Jaylen Waddle (8.12) TE: Darren Waller (1.05) I usually go much more WR & TE heavy early, but this year I liked the values at QB & RB. We'll see how that looks over the rest of the draft. I easily could've been more WR/TE heavy, if AJ Brown (pick 2.11) or TJ Hockenson (pick 3.04) had fallen 1 more pick. But they didn't, so I went QB-RB there instead of WR-TE. Also narrowly missed out on Mixon (3.03), Fant (5.04), Fuller (8.10), and Butker (9.03). The top TEs are ridiculously valuable with 2 PPR. This year might be the biggest advantage that 1.01 has ever had in this format, with Kelce. (I see that a couple leagues let him fall to 1.02, which is a big gift/mistake IMO). Waller was the 2nd player on my draft board. Gotta love those QBs who run the ball. I got two of them in Murray & Hill. Hill should get his share of rushing+receiving yards even if he isn't the starter. Toughest within-position choices were Damien Harris vs. Etienne at 7.05 (which I'm now wishing I went the other way on) and Waddle vs. some other receivers at 8.12. That 8th rounder was the hardest pick for me - there were literally 10 guys there who I was strongly considering.
  11. ZWK

    Filled

    Welcome aboard. Still 1 spot left. Dispersal draft is waiting on that.
  12. So 40 RBs, 40 WRs, and 20 TEs are going to be rostered? That reduces the value of WRs in the draft, since WR40 is a pretty good player (that's someone like Shenault, AB, or Landry). So even if you wait until the end of the draft, you're still getting guys like that or better. This format also does increase the value of TE since it'll be harder to find one on the waiver wire.
  13. I love+hate the way @Crippler has started this draft from the 10 slot with the Tyreek & Etienne picks. - the guy in the 11 slot
  14. ZWK

    Filled

    EDIT: FILLED, and links removed Previous Title: 2-Team Dispersal in 10 team .5 PPR $47 Dynasty League Looking for two managers for a dispersal draft in a 10-team dynasty league. The basics: 11th year of the league. 0.5 PPR. Two flex spots. Start QRRWWWTFFDK. 24 man rosters plus 3 IR and 3 taxi squad. Playoffs weeks 16 & 17. $47 dues using leaguesafe. The details. We'll have a dispersal draft once both new managers are on board. Available players include Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Michael Thomas. Also 4 first round rookie picks and 4 second round picks (2 extra of each) for our league's rookie draft at the end of August. The dispersal draft is a 33-round snake draft, where one of you gets picks 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, etc. and the other gets 2, 3, 6, 7, etc. All the players from the two open teams will be available, plus all the non-rookie FAs, along with the twelve 2021 rookie draft picks that the two open teams had. I'll flip a coin (or equivalent), and the coin flip winner gets to pick whether they get pick 1 or 2. Message me if you're interested, ideally including a link to a team of yours in another dynasty league.
  15. You could allow conditional lineup requests, like a lot of leagues did last year. Or you could pick a canonical source of projections and use the player's projection for his score. Or you could do nothing and make managers figure it out.
  16. Matt Ryan is being drafted between rookie 30 & rookie 31 in non-IDP startups, which puts his consensus value at pick 3.07 rather than 2.07. IDP would bump him down farther. In redraft he's going as QB15, a few slots behind Stafford, which doesn't have a ton of value in 12-team 1 QB leagues. And he's not the kind of guy who's worth more in dynasty.
  17. If you're going to start 4 WRs then it's fine to draft a bunch. Probably at least 6, maybe more depending on roster size. There are bye weeks and injuries, and it's not likely that every single pick of yours will hit. At TE, you could try thinking about things in the opposite direction. If you wait until the last round to draft a TE, what guys might be there? It depends on how many teams draft more than one TE, but I'd be surprised if Trautman, Everett, and Firkser were all gone. If you're comfortable waiting, then it's easier to let the draft come to you and take players who are reasonable values rather than forcing a TE pick.
  18. Drafted QB: Donovan McNabb RB: Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs WR: Donald Driver, Laveranues Coles, Santonio Holmes TE: Antonio Gates PK: Stephen Gostkowski and some other guys who I didn't play like Mark Clayton & Ladell Betts. Ended the season with Anquan Boldin (traded for Jacobs), Anthony Gonzalez, Fred Taylor, and Aaron Stecker in my lineup. Also got starts from David Garrard, Selvin Young, Chester Taylor, Adrian Peterson CHI, Jesse Chatman, Jerious Norwood, Brian Leonard, Dennis Northcutt, Chris Henry WR, Kevin Walter, and Eric Johnson. (I went and looked this up. There was one name in this post that I didn't recognize.)
  19. That's weird. FBG projections have McCaffrey & Cook outscoring those WRs by a healthy margin. I don't get why draft dominator would favor the WRs. I would definitely go RB there.
  20. this ? Probably not any time soon. I've been more focused on other fantasy stuff lately (mostly best ball) rather than dynasty rankings. Might work on getting them updated before the season starts; we'll see. Dan Hindery's monthly trade value charts are pretty good if you want another place to get your fix. If you're looking for discussion you could even start a thread about them.
  21. Funk was one of my sleepers pre-draft. He showed really good athleticism at his pro day, and had great rushing efficiency. Downsides: * rarely saw the field in his first 2 years * tore his left ACL twice, cutting short each of his next 2 years * most of his production came this year, as a 5th year senior, when he just played in 4 games Could easily wind up doing nothing (especially given that he fell to the 7th round), but seems like a good stash.
  22. Does it line up better if you look at ppg? This season has an extra game which would inflate all the numbers, and also projections often underestimate the number of missed games (which matters most as RB since RBs miss the most games).
  23. It sounds like you're using the average of all starting RBs as the baseline (the average of RB1-RB70). I usually use the last starter as the baseline (the projection for RB70), and FBG is probably doing that. So just look at CMC minus the projection of RB70. Probably that would get you closer to RB30. (Rather than "last starter", they might be looking at something like "best available in round 12 of the draft" or "the level of production you can expect to get off the waiver wire".)
×
  • Create New...