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Everything posted by ZWK

  1. Chase DJ Moore M Thomas Waddle Cooper Devonta Miles Sanders Evans Sutton
  2. Seems like this is mainly a matter of figuring out your player rankings for the top 19. With my draft board, I have a clear top 10 so I'd take the last 2 of them at 9 & 10 (sounds like it'll be 2 of Pitts, Etienne, Javonte). Then I have Waddle & Devonta next, so pick your favorite at 11. If you're confident about predicting what #12 will do then you could try to play games to get one of those 5 to fall to 13, but seems pretty risky. #13 could be a good trade-down spot if those 12 are gone. Or try to get a future 1st. I have Bateman & Elijah Moore as best available there a
  3. Top 3 WR & TE on same team (since 1988) 2020 KC WR2 Tyreek Hill + TE1 Travis Kelce 2018 KC WR3 Tyreek Hill + TE1 Travis Kelce 2013 CLE WR1 Josh Gordon + TE3 Jordan Cameron 2013 DEN WR3 Demaryius Thomas + TE2 Julius Thomas 2011 NE WR2 Wes Welker + TE1 Rob Gronkowski + TE3 Aaron Hernandez 2007 DAL WR2 Terrell Owens + TE1 Jason Witten 2001 IND WR1 Marvin Harrison + TE2 Marcus Pollard 1994 SF WR1 Jerry Rice + TE3 Brent Jones 1990 SF WR1 Jerry Rice + TE2 Brent Jones
  4. So your baseline is TE14 or the #86 RB/WR/TE (whichever is lower)? If so, that would reduce the gap a bit (compared to using TE12 or flex84), because moving the baseline from TE12->TE14 is a larger drop than flex84->flex86. Doesn't seem like it would be a big enough effect to account for the gap in the multipliers that we're finding.
  5. No, I'm mainly talking about leagues with 1 flex spot. (There was 1 paragraph in my first comment about how the app seems correct for TE premium leagues with no flex, and the issue is just about leagues that do have a flex spot.)
  6. Let me see if I'm following your two methods. Your first method, for each week you looked at the actual points scored by TEs, WRs, and RBs. You defined the baseline as whichever was lower, the points scored that week by TE12 or the points scored by RB/WR/TE #84 (with normal PPR this is usually TE12, with 2 PPR for TE it's usually the 84th RB/WR/TE). Then each player got credited with his points that week minus the baseline points for that week. Add up the total points by TEs (for a single week, or summed over all 68 weeks), and you found that this number was about 1.5x bigger with 2 PPR f
  7. I get a 1.75x multiplier using the 2021 FBG projections. 1 PPR: 1 starting TE per team per week, with a total 662 VBD 2 PPR for TE: 1.5 starting TE per team per week, with a total of 1161 VBD Spreadsheet
  8. The 2.2x is based on end-of-year stats, VBD with a last starter baseline using ppg. Sort guys by ppg, set the baseline as "last starter" (with no flex you need to include enough starters to have 17 x 12 games played by TEs, with a flex you need (2+3+1+1) x 17 x 12 games played by RB/WR/TE). Then each player's value is his [(ppg) - (baseline ppg)] x (games played). Calculation is in the spreadsheet I linked - last year TEs had 563 VBD in 1 PPR vs. 1260 VBD in 2 PPR TEP, which is 2.2x.
  9. It looks like this isn't boosting TEs enough in TE premium, and it's boosting them too uniformly. Switching to 2 PPR for TEs (with 1 flex spot) appears to give every TE about a 1.5x boost (or slightly less) compared to 1 PPR. It should generally be more than that - last year the total TE value with 2 PPR (and 1 flex spot) was about 2.2x as much as with 1 PPR. The highest scoring TEs get the smallest boost (as a ratio) - 1.5x basically matches Kelce's boost from last year, while Hockenson was worth more like 2.6x as much with 2 PPR vs 1 PPR. But the trade value calculator is just giving th
  10. Dan Hindery has a trade value chart on FBG which is generally pretty good, though at first glance it seems like it might be undervaluing Mahomes in superflex. So you should at least try to come out ahead according to that chart. One strategy that I've seen go well is to try to make a bunch of trade-downs and acquire a bunch of next year's rookie 1sts, still have plenty of picks in the first 7ish rounds, and draft a really young team. So you punt on year 1 & try to dominate year 3.
  11. Seems like a good late-round target - high ceiling, and we could learn a lot about him this offseason (which would make him either clearly worth rostering or droppable). Depends some on league format. According to MFL, Sammis Reyes is being drafted in only 9% of leagues and 10 rookie TEs are being drafted more often. In Zealots leagues, he's being drafted in 18% of leagues and 6 rookie TEs are being drafted more often. So it looks like he's usually going undrafted (though those numbers might be screwy with him signing before the NFL draft, or with rookie drafts still in progress).
  12. I would list 1.03 in my trade bait and maybe post something to league chat about being open to trading down. I'd plan on waiting to pull the trigger on the trade when I'm OTC at pick 3, although I'd be willing to make a move sooner if I got a great offer. Then I'd be looking to get at least a 2021 or 2022 2nd back if I'm staying in the top 5, though this depends on how tightly packed you see the 3 players. Maybe I'd be willing to take a little less if I thought the guy I'd get at 1.05 is basically as good as the guy I'd take at 1.03, e.g. give 1.03 & a 3rd for 1.05 & a 2nd.
  13. I'm surprised that Clayton Gray has UDFA Quinn Nordin favored to win the NE kicking job when they gave Nick Folk $1.2M guaranteed this offseason. Maurile Tremblay has Folk as the only Patriots kicker in his projections.
  14. Interesting that Waller > Kittle with such a large gap, and (I think) unanimously among all the projectors. I agree with that ranking, but most places I've seen have Kittle ahead of Waller.
  15. I'm seeing Carter ranked around RB39 in redraft. So if you're drafting him based on his opportunity for immediate production, that's the level of immediate production that people who are doing drafts/rankings/projections for this year are expecting.
  16. I got them from Arif Hasan's consensus big board (paywall). Other sources like NFL Mock Draft Database mostly had pretty similar projected picks.
  17. OK, I see how that phrasing is confusing (the last sentence which says "The biggest fallers are Josh Palmer..."). I was trying to say "The guys who lose the most value by doing reach-adjusted generic rookie rankings rather than ordinary generic rookie rankings are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu,the guys who have less value according to this method than they do with my usual generic rookie rankings method are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu, etc." I'll go back and edit that.
  18. If I put in the work to get 3 years of data, then I'll take the 3-year total for each player. That helps distinguish "the good players at this position are really valuable" from "every once in a while a random player at this position has a big year". You can also discover things like "hey, the bit of value that Justin Tucker provides each year actually adds up to something not-so-tiny."
  19. I usually start by looking at last year's scoring, sorting players by VBD (last starter method, based on ppg) for the scoring rules of the league I'm joining. I did that here for 2020 RB/WR/TE for ppr, TE prem with 1.5 ppr, and TE prem with 2.0 ppr, assuming a 12-team league where you start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 flex. I'll often also look at the year before that, and projections for the upcoming year.
  20. Yes, it's often called victory points (VP). You get 1 VP if you win your head-to-head matchup and 1 VP if you finish in the top half of teams in scoring that week. (There are also other variations, like giving 2 VP for being in the top third of teams in scoring and 1 VP for finishing in the middle third.) MFL definitely has this option. Probably some other sites do too but I don't know.
  21. Based on random variation in the strength of different draft classes, you'd expect there to be 4+ "two per year" caliber QBs in the same draft class once every 7 years. The breakdown is
  22. Reaches rate better after the draft than they did before the draft, but they rate lower after the draft than drafted-as-expected guys who were drafted at the same spot in the draft. Steals rate worse after the draft than they did before the draft, and (according to the PFF analysis) they rate the same as the drafted-as-expected guys who were drafted at the same spot in the draft.
  23. The first / most important thing I look for in a WR prospect is: did he ever have a good season? I think there's a pretty strong case for Toney that the answer is yes, or at least borderline. In 11 games this year he had 70/984/10 receiving, plus another 19/161/1 rushing, for 1145 YFS & 11 TD. So we're looking at 1 touchdown and over 100 yards per game, which is pretty good. Other ways of looking at it: in the 11 games he played in, it was 2.31 recyd per team attempt, 23% MS of recyd, 22% MS of rectd, 1.58 scrimmage yards per team play, 20% MS of offensive yards, 20% MS of offens
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