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Ignoratio Elenchi

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Everything posted by Ignoratio Elenchi

  1. "Domestic interference" is presumably by American citizens, so one could probably make that case that they're simply exercising their rights to advocate for certain political views/positions. Whereas foreign entities don't have the same right to a voice in our process. I haven't followed the conversation but if people are portraying the mere existence of left-leaning US media outlets as "domestic interference" then I'm not sure the comparison is even worth discussing.
  2. I don't think you're missing anything, they're just grasping at anything at this point. The moderator sent a tweet with the word Trump in it, therefore there must be a new moderator. That's it.
  3. It sounds like what you want is a logistic regression. Maybe too in-depth to explain it here but you can google "logistic regression excel" or something and there are short tutorials (or probably add-ins that can do it). As a simpler alternative, you might want to just group all your projections into some sensible buckets (e.g. 0-10%, 11-20%, 21-30%, ... , 91-100%) and then calculate the win rate for each of those buckets. And then plot the buckets vs. the actual win rates as scatter plot to see the correlation.
  4. Once again, why waste everyone's time being intellectually dishonest? You, I, they, and everyone else knows you're not voting for Biden. It would be stupid of them to waste time trying to campaign to you, just like it's dumb to waste everyone's time here pretending you might vote for them.
  5. Obviously they want every vote they can get, but they know they're not getting your vote no matter what they say. So they don't go out of their way to say things that would please you.
  6. FBI already had an informant wearing a wire at the June 20th meeting. Not a stretch to imagine they already knew about this terrorist group in April while Trump was egging them on. Just crazy that this is reality.
  7. Haven't followed the whole thread, can someone summarize for me the objective reasons this year is expected to be different than 2016? For reference, at this point relative to election day four years ago, 538 gave Clinton something like an 85% chance of winning, and Trump was campaigning like he was trying to lose. Fast forward to today, and 538 is giving Biden an 85% chance of winning and Trump once again seems like he doesn't even want to win. What are the substantive reasons we'd expect this election result to turn out differently?
  8. I'd be interested to know what he thinks debating is all about. (Kidding, of course, I don't actually care what he thinks.)
  9. Isn't not paying back loans part of Trump's whole shtick? "If you owe the bank $1M, you have a problem; if you owe the bank $100M, they have a problem." He was famous for this like 30 years ago, I think he'd even tell you he hasn't paid them all back as proof of his superior business acumen.
  10. There are a lot of different kinds of intelligence. As others have noted, he seems to be quite good at promoting his personal brand. I'm not sure I'd take the over on his performance on an IQ test or something, though.
  11. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejuex6IXcAYtgIB?format=jpg&name=large
  12. I'm starting to think that in a lot of cases, they're right.
  13. Awesome news. It seems very unlikely at the point, but what’s the plan if Trump somehow doesn’t win the election in a few weeks?
  14. Yeah, I read it too quickly. I get that it wasn't the point of your overall post. Just meant it's pretty relevant to characterizing him as a workhorse, which is what jumped out at me since I've never gotten that impression of him before.
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