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Ignoratio Elenchi

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Posts posted by Ignoratio Elenchi

  1. 35 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

    Maybe I've missed some posts (or I have the poster hidden) but for my part, I'm trying to understand if there's any difference in folks mind between foreign vs. domestic interference.  Assuming they are essentially the same thing - does the fact that it comes from a foreign entity make it "worse"?

    "Domestic interference" is presumably by American citizens, so one could probably make that case that they're simply exercising their rights to advocate for certain political views/positions.  Whereas foreign entities don't have the same right to a voice in our process.  I haven't followed the conversation but if people are portraying the mere existence of left-leaning US media outlets as "domestic interference" then I'm not sure the comparison is even worth discussing. 

    • Like 2
  2. 3 hours ago, Tiger Fan said:

    Need a little help here constructing the right graph.  I've got a data set of all of my NFL bets and projections placed this year (currently about 330 lines and grows every week).  I'm trying to build a graph so I can see if there is a correlation b/w the difference in what I project vs. the line of the bet and the result of the bet (win or loss).  I'm stuck.....and would really appreciate any help!  here's a link to the set of the 3 key columns (Description Below).

    Position - Position of player I'm betting on

    Abs Value % of projection - Absolute Value of the projection vs. the bet.  (Ex. If the bet is Derrick Henry over 90 yards, and I have him projected at 99 yards, it will show 10%)

    Win/Loss - Actual record of Win or Loss of the bet

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ehpMgoNmFFEyPRYzyonvtsgNNnaoGFHutAW9EyJq6tQ/edit?usp=sharing

     

    thanks!

    It sounds like what you want is a logistic regression.  Maybe too in-depth to explain it here but you can google "logistic regression excel" or something and there are short tutorials (or probably add-ins that can do it).

    As a simpler alternative, you might want to just group all your projections into some sensible buckets (e.g. 0-10%, 11-20%, 21-30%, ... , 91-100%) and then calculate the win rate for each of those buckets.  And then plot the buckets vs. the actual win rates as scatter plot to see the correlation. 

  3. 7 minutes ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

    :lmao: I literally just said the opposite but you're the expert

    Once again, why waste everyone's time being intellectually dishonest?  You, I, they, and everyone else knows you're not voting for Biden.  It would be stupid of them to waste time trying to campaign to you, just like it's dumb to waste everyone's time here pretending you might vote for them. 

    • Like 1
  4. 29 minutes ago, massraider said:

    April 17 Trump tweets "LIBERATE MICHIGAN"

     

    Quote

    The FBI became aware early in 2020, through social media, that a militia group was "discussing the violent overthrow of certain government and law enforcement components," and "agreed to take violent action," according to a sworn affidavit.

    Members of the group talked about "murdering ... tyrants" or "taking" a sitting governor, according to the affidavit. One of the relevant meetings the FBI monitored was held June 20 in Grand Rapids. the affidavit alleges.

    FBI already had an informant wearing a wire at the June 20th meeting.  Not a stretch to imagine they already knew about this terrorist group in April while Trump was egging them on.  Just crazy that this is reality.  

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2
  5. Haven't followed the whole thread, can someone summarize for me the objective reasons this year is expected to be different than 2016?  For reference, at this point relative to election day four years ago, 538 gave Clinton something like an 85% chance of winning, and Trump was campaigning like he was trying to lose.  Fast forward to today, and 538 is giving Biden an 85% chance of winning and Trump once again seems like he doesn't even want to win.  What are the substantive reasons we'd expect this election result to turn out differently?

  6.  

    1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

    Please also provide info on total amount of loans over his career along with what he didn't pay back

    Isn't not paying back loans part of Trump's whole shtick?  "If you owe the bank $1M, you have a problem; if you owe the bank $100M, they have a problem."  He was famous for this like 30 years ago, I think he'd even tell you he hasn't paid them all back as proof of his superior business acumen.

  7. 3 hours ago, Jayrod said:

    Except when that person has somehow worked their way to the highest office in the land...

    Insecure?  For sure.  Intelligent?  Most likely.

    There are a lot of different kinds of intelligence.  As others have noted, he seems to be quite good at promoting his personal brand.  I'm not sure I'd take the over on his performance on an IQ test or something, though.  

  8. 1 minute ago, AAABatteries said:

    I thought it was obvious from my post - I’m asking a simple question here but since it seems like people are going to take issue with my wording let me ask it a different way.

    Yeah, I read it too quickly.  I get that it wasn't the point of your overall post.  Just meant it's pretty relevant to characterizing him as a workhorse, which is what jumped out at me since I've never gotten that impression of him before.  

    • Like 1
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