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Ignoratio Elenchi

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Everything posted by Ignoratio Elenchi

  1. From everything I'm hearing, no, this is worse. Teachers are well-trained on classroom management, they have years of experience managing the types of distractions that happen in a classroom. They seem to have little control over the kinds of things that go wrong in a virtual environment.
  2. You'd shave off about 8 months of payments.
  3. No, if I had friends in Hawaii I'd expect to have to go to Hawaii for their wedding (the specific choice of venue doesn't really matter). If my Chicago friends decided they wanted to get married on a beach in Hawaii, they'd get a card in the mail.
  4. I think of "destination wedding" as one which is a destination for the bride and groom. I live in NJ and have friends in Chicago. If they get married in Chicago, I'd fly out for their wedding. That's not a "destination wedding" to me. If they decide they want to get married on a beach in Hawaii, that's a destination wedding.
  5. I'm not either, just being realistic. Trump's in several high-risk cohorts (elderly, obese, low-income, non-white) so there's a decent chance he gets a bad case of this. I'm just envisioning a scenario where he ends up asymptomatic and it just further fuels the part of his base that thinks the whole thing is a hoax, etc. which is the last thing we need right now.
  6. I've never gone to a destination wedding, they seem obnoxious. I'd just send a card (and a gift, depending on the relationship). Otherwise if you expect me to incur all those costs to attend your wedding, my presence is your gift.
  7. If the first sentence happens, the second won't. I imagine for a variety of reasons, a quick asymptomatic recovery by the Trumps is one of the worst things that could happen to the country at this point.
  8. No opinion on the spread but yeah I like the under there. I have it at about 38, best NFL capper I know personally makes it 39, and books are gonna shade it a bit higher because most of the money will be on the over regardless.
  9. There's one scheduled 15 minute snack break in the middle, and usually a couple of impromptu 5 minute stretch breaks. As I'm typing this, the fire alarm just went off in the school. The teacher just picked up her laptop and is carrying it outside. She told the kids to go take their snack break.
  10. There are a couple of "problem" students in this class so I'm sure that contributes to it (the teacher doesn't typically call out individual students by name, more just makes general "please keep your cameras on, please don't use chat" reminders, etc. so I don't know who she's referring to specifically, but I assume it's the same kids most of the time). This teacher was also hired like August 30 to backfill one of the positions vacated by teachers who opted not to return to deal with this crap, so she's new to the school. She's close to retirement age, and she's clearly not 100% across
  11. The period from age 25-30 or so I went to 5+ a year. Back then I loved them (the reception, not the ceremony, obv). Nowadays if I was invited to one I'd be looking for an excuse not to attend.
  12. This was one of the questions I had for my wife before this school year started, I don't think she still has clear guidance. If a kid is being disruptive in the classroom, they get sent to the principal's office. What's the virtual equivalent? You can't kick them out of the zoom, then the parents will lose their #### that you're not supervising their kid. The teachers got training in the summer on mundane technical stuff like how to share your screen, etc. but little to no training (that I'm aware of) on how to actually manage a virtual classroom. It's been very disappointing. Aside
  13. Sunday's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans has been postponed to either Monday or Tuesday.
  14. My 6- and 9-year olds are on zoom for 5 hours a day. It's a trainwreck. I've been saying it forever but the district unfortunately wasted the entire summer figuring out how to get kids back in the building instead of figuring out how to provide the best possible remote learning experience, and so now when they switched at the last moment to all-remote (like I predicted they would all along), we got this ####ty outcome. Crazy to think that for a long time the plan was to have teachers do this while simultaneously teaching almost half the class in-person. It would be even worse. I'm getting pret
  15. 1 - Four Seam Fastball (30 mph) 2 - Curveball 3 - Slider 4 - Knuckleball 5 - Sinker 6 - Changeup 7 - Two Seam Fastball 8 - Screwball 9 - Splitter 10 - Four Seam Fastball (70 mph)
  16. Our district is 100% remote. In the spring, that meant the teachers created lessons and assignments that the kids would complete on their own schedule. There was a 30-minute zoom every day for the kids to see each other and talk to the teacher, ask questions, do some kind of group lesson/activity, etc. Outside of that the teachers were available for 1-on-1 or small group zooms as needed. I know opinions/experiences varied wildly but it worked pretty well for our family. In the fall we have now moved to a model where the teachers are live teaching via zoom the whole time. The kids are
  17. I only do car camping so this doesn’t apply if carrying weight is an issue, but after a couple rough nights on a lightweight inflatable sleeping pad I got one of these. I sleep like a baby every time now. One of the best purchases I’ve ever made.
  18. But the door hasn't been installed yet. He can just paint it first.
  19. Atlanta lost by 13 in week 1, not 3. But yeah, this is one where the raw numbers might be a little wonky because the Falcons have faced two good offenses and the Bears have benefitted from playing two bad ones. If I had to pick I'd take ATL -3.
  20. He just doesn't want to do it so he quoted a price he knows you'll turn down (or you'll pay him too much for his time). You'll be fine.
  21. Family yes (only three close relatives who live nearby), friends no but we have been getting together regularly outdoors.
  22. I like all of these. One thing I'm really interested in this year is the value of home field advantage. I don't have a great idea yet how much limited/no fans in attendance makes a difference on what the lines should be (I suspect not much, but I don't really have a solid basis for that).
  23. f(0) = 0.5. f(1) + f(2) = 0.25. So f(3+) = 0.25, and the conditional probability is 0.5. P(X=20) = 0.96^19 * 0.04 ~= 0.0184. P(X<20) = sum(0.96^(i-1) * 0.04) for i = 1..19. ~= 0.5396. P(X>20) = 1 - the above two results ~= 0.442. Assuming the students are just guessing randomly... f(x) = 0.8^(x-1) * 0.2 I forget how to do E(X) where there's a finite number of questions (so it's possible the student gets none of them correct). Low-confidence guess is the answer is (1-0.8^8)/0.2 ~= 4.16.
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