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Ignoratio Elenchi

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Posts posted by Ignoratio Elenchi

  1. 20 minutes ago, trader jake said:

    To be fair, the types of distractions may be different, but if you had been a fly on the wall in your kid's classroom pre-Covid19, don't you think the number of distractions would be in the same ballpark?  Kids being kids and all that.

    From everything I'm hearing, no, this is worse.  Teachers are well-trained on classroom management, they have years of experience managing the types of distractions that happen in a classroom.  They seem to have little control over the kinds of things that go wrong in a virtual environment.  

  2. 5 minutes ago, Nigel said:

    I've got 11.5 years and $180K left on a 15 yr at 3.65, very good credit and ~80% equity. I'd love to refi and knock a year (or more?) off. My nephew is new to the mortgage business so trying to throw him a bone and go through him. He says there is no difference in the rate for 10 yrs vs 15, so the play might be to refi at 15 and continue to make same payments we make on current loan, paying off early and being done sooner than if we stick with current loan. Does this make sense? Still not clear to me how yet much time we'd save. Current payment is around $1600 P&I, $2,700 total. I've messed around with calculators but not sure how to figure out how soon we'll be done if we refi $180K at say 2.65% for 15 yrs, but continue paying $2,700/mo. Can anyone easily calculate that for me? TIA

    You'd shave off about 8 months of payments. 

    • Like 1
  3. Just now, Terminalxylem said:

    Hmmm. We got married on a beach in HI, but we live here. It was at a resort though, so does it qualify as a destination wedding?

    No, if I had friends in Hawaii I'd expect to have to go to Hawaii for their wedding (the specific choice of venue doesn't really matter). If my Chicago friends decided they wanted to get married on a beach in Hawaii, they'd get a card in the mail.  :) 

    • Like 1
  4. 38 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

    Unless you only attend ceremonies within driving distance, isn’t every wedding effectively a destination?

    I guess most people don’t move/live far from the bulk of their friends/family, but for those of us who do, I hope invitees don’t find the concept obnoxious. Then again, less guests is always better anyway.

    I think of "destination wedding" as one which is a destination for the bride and groom.  I live in NJ and have friends in Chicago.  If they get married in Chicago, I'd fly out for their wedding.  That's not a "destination wedding" to me.  If they decide they want to get married on a beach in Hawaii, that's a destination wedding. 

    • Like 2
  5. 12 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

    I’m not going to sit here and wish poor health on anybody.  

    I'm not either, just being realistic.  Trump's in several high-risk cohorts (elderly, obese, low-income, non-white) so there's a decent chance he gets a bad case of this.  I'm just envisioning a scenario where he ends up asymptomatic and it just further fuels the part of his base that thinks the whole thing is a hoax, etc. which is the last thing we need right now.  

    • Like 1
    • Laughing 2
  6. 14 hours ago, NutterButter said:

    the people throwing the wedding or the people attending?   is it significantly more than a normal wedding?   we're talking just the wedding itself and the reception.   everything else would be paid for by the guests like room, food and drinks outside of reception hours and flight.   

    I've never gone to a destination wedding, they seem obnoxious.  I'd just send a card (and a gift, depending on the relationship).  Otherwise if you expect me to incur all those costs to attend your wedding, my presence is your gift.  

    • Like 1
  7. 25 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

    I hope they both recover quickly and have no side effects.

    I also hope this news makes many take more precautions and to take the virus more seriously.  

    If the first sentence happens, the second won't.  I imagine for a variety of reasons, a quick asymptomatic recovery by the Trumps is one of the worst things that could happen to the country at this point. 

    • Like 2
    • Sad 2
  8. 13 minutes ago, CR69 said:

    That's tough for her and the kids. Damn. Is it four hours straight of zoom videos or are there built in activities, breaks and snacks?

    There's one scheduled 15 minute snack break in the middle, and usually a couple of impromptu 5 minute stretch breaks.  

    As I'm typing this, the fire alarm just went off in the school.  The teacher just picked up her laptop and is carrying it outside.  She told the kids to go take their snack break. :lmao: 

    • Laughing 1
  9. 11 hours ago, CR69 said:

    My wife is the one dealing with most of this and she said this hasn’t been the case for our daughter at all. She’s in a mixed K-2 class and she said it’s extremely rare for the teacher to have to remind the students of any of that stuff. Wonder what they difference is. Maybe it’s just the age but I’d think it would be tougher with younger kids?

    There are a couple of "problem" students in this class so I'm sure that contributes to it (the teacher doesn't typically call out individual students by name, more just makes general "please keep your cameras on, please don't use chat" reminders, etc. so I don't know who she's referring to specifically, but I assume it's the same kids most of the time).  

    This teacher was also hired like August 30 to backfill one of the positions vacated by teachers who opted not to return to deal with this crap, so she's new to the school.  She's close to retirement age, and she's clearly not 100% across the technology aspects of virtual instruction.  By all accounts she's a great teacher in ordinary circumstances but there have been a variety of frustrating issues with her getting acclimated to the tech.  

    It's mostly just a lot of little things but taken all together, the experience of live streaming teaching for 4+ hours at a time just isn't working for us.  


  10. 7 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

    Wow, at one point in my life I was going to 3 weddings a year, if not more.

    :goodposting: The period from age 25-30 or so I went to 5+ a year.  Back then I loved them (the reception, not the ceremony, obv).  Nowadays if I was invited to one I'd be looking for an excuse not to attend. 

    • Like 1
  11. 1 hour ago, acarey50 said:

    For #2, how would you handle this if the disruptive behavior was happening in a classroom setting? Removal from class, parent-teacher conference, suspension? Clear consequences for disruptive behavior need to be established and enforced.

    This was one of the questions I had for my wife before this school year started, I don't think she still has clear guidance.  If a kid is being disruptive in the classroom, they get sent to the principal's office.  What's the virtual equivalent?  You can't kick them out of the zoom, then the parents will lose their #### that you're not supervising their kid.  The teachers got training in the summer on mundane technical stuff like how to share your screen, etc. but little to no training (that I'm aware of) on how to actually manage a virtual classroom.  It's been very disappointing. 

    Aside from disruptive behavior, just the act of trying to teach young kids on a video stream for hours at a time is so ineffective.  I've moved my workstation closer to where my kids are so I can hear what's going on with their classes during the day and the amount of time that's wasted on "please turn your camera back on," "please mute your microphone when it's not your turn to speak," "the chat bar is only for asking the teacher questions, not for messaging each other," etc. is mind-boggling.  Plus every time a student is called on, there's a small delay while they remind themselves how to unmute so they can respond - individually negligible but when it happens all day it adds up and makes an already boring experience even worse.  And the constant stream of technical questions like "I don't see the assignment in my classroom," "where's the link for the video," etc.  I listened to my 4th grader's class most of the morning today and they got almost nothing done.  I'm just venting at this point, it's just so frustrating that this was the solution we ended up with. 

    • Like 1
  12. 3 hours ago, CR69 said:

    That's WAY too long to be on zoom. Brutal. Our 7 year old (big age difference of course) only spends three hours a day on zoom but that also includes 30 minutes of breaks and snacks. With the various subjects, activities and the breaks it seems to work great. 

    My 6- and 9-year olds are on zoom for 5 hours a day. It's a trainwreck. I've been saying it forever but the district unfortunately wasted the entire summer figuring out how to get kids back in the building instead of figuring out how to provide the best possible remote learning experience, and so now when they switched at the last moment to all-remote (like I predicted they would all along), we got this ####ty outcome. Crazy to think that for a long time the plan was to have teachers do this while simultaneously teaching almost half the class in-person. It would be even worse. I'm getting pretty close to just pulling the kids out until this is all over, I don't have any experience with formal homeschooling but I'm certain I can do better for them than what they're getting right now. 

    • Like 1
  13. 2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

    How is everyone holding up?

    Our district is 100% remote.  In the spring, that meant the teachers created lessons and assignments that the kids would complete on their own schedule.  There was a 30-minute zoom every day for the kids to see each other and talk to the teacher, ask questions, do some kind of group lesson/activity, etc.  Outside of that the teachers were available for 1-on-1 or small group zooms as needed. I know opinions/experiences varied wildly but it worked pretty well for our family. 

    In the fall we have now moved to a model where the teachers are live teaching via zoom the whole time.  The kids are on the computer from 8:40 - 12:50 every day (with a 15 minute snack break in there somewhere), then 1 hour for lunch, and then back on from 2-3 in the afternoon.  Personally I think we're doing this because (a) parents didn't think teachers were working hard enough in the spring and/or (b) parents need someone to effectively virtually babysit their kid most of the day.  From my perspective it's so much worse than the spring.  It's been a couple weeks and I've already contemplated just pulling them out and homeschooling them until things are back to normal, which is not something I'd ever given a minute of thought to before.  

  14. 4 hours ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

    -Maybe a few of those thin inflatable mattresses.

    I only do car camping so this doesn’t apply if carrying weight is an issue, but after a couple rough nights on a lightweight inflatable sleeping pad I got one of these. I sleep like a baby every time now. One of the best purchases I’ve ever made. 

    • Like 1
  15. 2 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

    He said something about the old lock system being complex and archaic.  Just assuming that if he’s getting a new door that it’s most likely going to have a different and more updated locking system which will likely result in doing some mods to the door jams and hinges. Besides that, while I know some people will paint doors while they are hung, in my experience in every renovation that I’ve done in my house and rental properties- the best results for painting a door have been when it has been removed and prepped and painted on stands/sawhorses. 

    But the door hasn't been installed yet.  He can just paint it first. 

  16. 4 hours ago, Harris said:

    How do you guys feel about Atlanta (-3) at home vs. Chicago. I can't think that these teams are as bad and good as their records indicate. Atlanta has a 3-point loss and a 1-point loss and is a must-win game at home for them. Should be quite motivated. Am I missing something from the Bears side here? Are they actually decent? Or is Atlanta's defense really that bad?

    Atlanta lost by 13 in week 1, not 3.  But yeah, this is one where the raw numbers might be a little wonky because the Falcons have faced two good offenses and the Bears have benefitted from playing two bad ones.  If I had to pick I'd take ATL -3.

  17. 24 minutes ago, brianj74 said:

    YTD: 6-2

    Week 3

    Rams +2.5. Consecutive road games is tough for the Rams but the Bills have not played a legit offense yet (Jets and Dolphins).  Should be a close game but will take the dog here.

    NE -6. Tough road game here for the Raiders (short week, flying cross country and playing a NE team coming off a loss). 

    Pittsburgh -4. Houston opens the season versus KC, Baltimore and now Pittsburgh. Steelers did not look great versus the Broncos last week but they right the ship this week.

    TB-6. Tampa looked much better in week 2 than in week 1 and will look even better in week 3 with a win over Denver.

    Dal +5. Not much separates these two teams (Dallas and Seattle).  Will take the dog in a shootout.

    GB+3. Saints have not looked right all year. Michael Thomas is missing and Drew Brees seemingly cannot throw a pass downfield anymore. 

    I like all of these. :thumbup:

    One thing I'm really interested in this year is the value of home field advantage.  I don't have a great idea yet how much limited/no fans in attendance makes a difference on what the lines should be (I suspect not much, but I don't really have a solid basis for that). 

  18. 46 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

    1. Let X be the number of auto accidents in a neighborhood each month. Let the pmf of X be given by f(x) =1/(x+1)(x+2). Find the conditional probability that X≥3 given that X≥1.         

    f(0) = 0.5.  f(1) + f(2) = 0.25.  So f(3+) = 0.25, and the conditional probability is 0.5. 

    46 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

     2. A machine fills bags of potatoes to ten pounds. The probability that any given bag of potatoes is less than ten pounds is 0.04. We’ll check each bag to see if it is ten pounds. Let X be the number of bags checked until the first bag under ten pounds is found.                       
     (a) Find P(X = 20)                                                          
     (b) Find P(X > 20)                                                          
     (c) Find P(X < 20)    

    P(X=20) = 0.96^19 * 0.04 ~= 0.0184.

    P(X<20) = sum(0.96^(i-1) * 0.04) for i = 1..19.  ~= 0.5396.

    P(X>20) = 1 - the above two results ~= 0.442.

    46 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

    3. A students take a quiz with eight multiple choice questions, each with five possible answers, only one of which is correct. Let X be the random variable corresponding to the first question correctly answered.

    (a) Find the pmf f(x).                                                      
    (b) Find E(X).

    Assuming the students are just guessing randomly...

    f(x) = 0.8^(x-1) * 0.2

    I forget how to do E(X) where there's a finite number of questions (so it's possible the student gets none of them correct).  Low-confidence guess is the answer is (1-0.8^8)/0.2 ~= 4.16. 

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