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Ignoratio Elenchi

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Everything posted by Ignoratio Elenchi

  1. I haven't used MFL in about a decade but I seem to remember the live scores only updated every 5 mins or so. Way too slow for your typical fantasy football league but good enough for something like this contest, I'd imagine.
  2. Right, a lot of this hinges on the accuracy of the information. If, as the post says, she didn't have COVID at the time of the meeting then there's no issue answering "no." Just seems weird to say that she had COVID last week, but also didn't have COVID on Friday. I didn't think someone could know that with any kind of certainty in such a short timeframe.
  3. Also, assuming all info in the post is accurate, if she "no longer has covid" then she's not an infected person. Not a doctor or a lawyer though so take it with a grain of salt. Personally, I don't know how the timelines work but I don't see how your niece "had COVID last week" but by Friday no longer had COVID. Is that how it works? In the interests of public safety I'd probably indicate yes on the questionnaire, but if you're looking for an out I think a literal reading of the question means you could reasonably answer no.
  4. Assuming "not longer than" means "less than", then a literal reading of the question means the answer is no.
  5. I've used the two he mentioned and also Asana, and in my (very limited) experience, while Jira is popular with the devs and IT folks, etc. the non-technical teams preferred Asana. Practically no learning curve, easy to create a list of projects and anyone can add comments. Can also create sub-tasks, assign projects to people, and lots of other useful functionality but if you literally just want a list of projects that people can add comments to, any of these solutions will work but Asana might be easiest to pick up. Trello also quite simple IIRC but no one seemed to like that one as much.
  6. Funny story, it's actually a pretty simple model I built years ago and had mostly forgotten about. Last year I had some entries in various handicapping pools that popped up in legal sportsbooks, and dusted off the model to make the picks for one of them so I wasn't just making the same picks everywhere. I had (and still have) no illusions that this is a profitable model or anything, but I just picked whatever it spit out and ended up winning the whole contest for a nice payday. This early in the season it's still largely weighting data from last year and I haven't done any work to adjust
  7. My model actually likes the Jets +7 this week against SF, and would love it if it somehow got to double digits (without major injury news or something). Also leans towards NE +4 being the pick. No strong opinion on the other three you listed here.
  8. Should clarify that while I never intentionally carry cash on me, I often have some anyway because other people still use it. This past weekend my buddy gave me $20 for some supplies and I’ve just been carrying it around until I find some occasion to use it. Fast forward to this morning and I’m taking the puppy for a walk. I run into my neighbor and his kid going around putting fundraising flyers in mailboxes. Chat for a few minutes and of course I take a flyer. Let the kid give his little sales pitch, and tell him I'm happy to support the cause and would like to buy some popcorn. I reach in m
  9. The data exists but as Grove pointed out no one's going to just give it away. Eilers & Krejcik will probably sell it to you for a few grand. On the other hand, how specific do you want to get? Because the rough answers to most of your questions are pretty obvious/accessible. ~50 million people play fantasy football. ~10 million have ever played DFS, and a fraction of that are still currently active. (Legal) sports betting is smaller still but that's because it's only in a few states. It will quickly overtake DFS as it spreads nationwide. It's largely a white male hobby, DFS skews
  10. There only would've been a cutoff if there were ~3300 more entries, so no.
  11. DFS is alive and well. It’s not having exponential growth the way it was in 2015 when the big sites were spending nine figures on advertising but that’s to be expected. It’s matured but it’s not going away. For whatever reason this place was never really a go-to for DFS discussion, there are other places on the internet where the community is still going strong. And yeah, as sports betting rolls out nationwide it will become more and more of the focus. And then as people discover in-play betting that will be even more. It’s just the way things are going. Why play season long when
  12. Late to the party but I suspect these guys were just scraping NFL.com and reselling the data so they probably don't work anymore if NFL changed the way their site works.
  13. Mildly pedantic but it kinda irks me when people talk about a lot of juice on favorites. +125/-145 or +135/-155 on those futures isn't a lot of juice, that's actually a pretty good spread on markets like those. There's less vig there than you'd find on a typical -110 NFL spread. It's just a reflection of what the market makes those probabilities out to be; whether or not it's a good price depends on what you think the probabilities are.
  14. I've been stuck at home with my family for six months. Where do I sign up for this empty room?
  15. ...that's what I said. Some people just want to put $20 on something crazy and don't really care if they end up profitable. That's not their goal. Then there are other people who might find it fun to make some money - the rest of my post was directed at those folks.
  16. so some people are already accustomed to betting, using offshore books, etc. on the other end of the spectrum you have people who just want to throw $20 away on big parlays, etc. and don't care if they're net losers. i suspect that in between there are a ton of regular guys who haven’t really been betting but would love to make some money betting with legal US sportsbooks as they roll out across the country. if you’re in this group here are some basic tips. each of these would really require their own post to explain fully so maybe we’ll do that later, but in the interests of starting some
  17. I mean, that's fine, like I said to each his own. If giving sportsbooks money is your idea of fun I can't argue. But objectively it's a pretty bad bet.
  18. ...with basic math? What do you think the probability is of that 5-team parlay winning?
  19. If you’re doing big parlays for fun why not try to win more money? The one you posted, you’re paying like 15-20% vig, on a bet that probably won’t win, for a small potential payout. That doesn’t seem fun to me, but to each his own.
  20. why edit: there are a handful of specific scenarios where it makes sense to bet a 5 team parlay. this is not one of them.
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