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Ignoratio Elenchi

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Posts posted by Ignoratio Elenchi

  1. 2 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

    He said she didn’t. I’m taking his word for it. 

    Right, a lot of this hinges on the accuracy of the information.  If, as the post says, she didn't have COVID at the time of the meeting then there's no issue answering "no."  Just seems weird to say that she had COVID last week, but also didn't have COVID on Friday.  I didn't think someone could know that with any kind of certainty in such a short timeframe.  

  2. 29 minutes ago, AcerFC said:

    She...no longer has covid. 

    ...

    Has this person had close contact within 6 feet of an infected person

    Also, assuming all info in the post is accurate, if she "no longer has covid" then she's not an infected person.  Not a doctor or a lawyer though so take it with a grain of salt.

    Personally, I don't know how the timelines work but I don't see how your niece "had COVID last week" but by Friday no longer had COVID.  Is that how it works?  In the interests of public safety I'd probably indicate yes on the questionnaire, but if you're looking for an out I think a literal reading of the question means you could reasonably answer no.

     

  3. On 9/17/2020 at 9:55 AM, brianj74 said:

    YTD 2-1

    Week 2

    Buffalo -5.5. Either Miami wins this outright or Buffalo will win and cover. Not quite sure how Miami wins this outright.

    SF -7. San Fran coming off a loss and playing the Jets this week, anything less than a double digit spread and the Niners is the pick. Granted the Niners are travelling cross country for this game but they are not travelling to Mars. 

    Sea -4. Still not sold on New England despite their week 1 win. Cam can't score every New England touchdown and Seattle looks like the offense is finally being opened up this year.

    NYG +6. Figure the Bears are getting too much credit for their week 1 win here as not much separates these two teams.

    GB -6. Packers looked awfully good last week against Minnesota and the Lions are no better.

    :goodposting: 

  4. 14 hours ago, Brony said:

    Thanks.  Everytime I go to the screenshots, examples for these types of solutions, I never encounter anything that resembles what I'm looking for.  Is the learning curve high to create something like I want? 

    I've used the two he mentioned and also Asana, and in my (very limited) experience, while Jira is popular with the devs and IT folks, etc. the non-technical teams preferred Asana.  Practically no learning curve, easy to create a list of projects and anyone can add comments.  Can also create sub-tasks, assign projects to people, and lots of other useful functionality but if you literally just want a list of projects that people can add comments to, any of these solutions will work but Asana might be easiest to pick up.  Trello also quite simple IIRC but no one seemed to like that one as much. 

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  5. Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

    What model is that? Curious as that looks like an easy win to this Jets' fan. I know when things look "easy" they generally are not though.

    Funny story, it's actually a pretty simple model I built years ago and had mostly forgotten about. Last year I had some entries in various handicapping pools that popped up in legal sportsbooks, and dusted off the model to make the picks for one of them so I wasn't just making the same picks everywhere. I had (and still have) no illusions that this is a profitable model or anything, but I just picked whatever it spit out and ended up winning the whole contest for a nice payday. 

    This early in the season it's still largely weighting data from last year and I haven't done any work to adjust for all the offseason moves so I have even less confidence in it now than I normally would. I manually fudged the numbers a bit to account for major personnel changes but otherwise just ran it as normal with week 1 and prior years data as the inputs. I'm not really an NFL capper and don't typically bet sides but I enjoy participating in the discussion.  

    In general I'm of the opinion that if you think a non-opening NFL spread is off by 3+ points, you're most likely wrong and the market is right.  Yeah the 49ers were just in the Super Bowl and the Jets are the Jets but the market thinks it's about a TD - if you gave me NYJ +10 or whatever I'd blindly bet that every single time.  

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  6. 4 hours ago, brianj74 said:

    YTD 2-1

    Week 2

    Buffalo -5.5. Either Miami wins this outright or Buffalo will win and cover. Not quite sure how Miami wins this outright.

    SF -7. San Fran coming off a loss and playing the Jets this week, anything less than a double digit spread and the Niners is the pick. Granted the Niners are travelling cross country for this game but they are not travelling to Mars. 

    Sea -4. Still not sold on New England despite their week 1 win. Cam can't score every New England touchdown and Seattle looks like the offense is finally being opened up this year.

    NYG +6. Figure the Bears are getting too much credit for their week 1 win here as not much separates these two teams.

    GB -6. Packers looked awfully good last week against Minnesota and the Lions are no better.

    My model actually likes the Jets +7 this week against SF, and would love it if it somehow got to double digits (without major injury news or something).  Also leans towards NE +4 being the pick.  No strong opinion on the other three you listed here. 

  7. Should clarify that while I never intentionally carry cash on me, I often have some anyway because other people still use it. This past weekend my buddy gave me $20 for some supplies and I’ve just been carrying it around until I find some occasion to use it. Fast forward to this morning and I’m taking the puppy for a walk. I run into my neighbor and his kid going around putting fundraising flyers in mailboxes. Chat for a few minutes and of course I take a flyer. Let the kid give his little sales pitch, and tell him I'm happy to support the cause and would like to buy some popcorn. I reach in my pocket, pull out my phone and scan the QR code on the flyer to place the order and pay. Go on my way and about ten minutes later the dog ####s on the side of the road. Realize I didn’t bring any poop bags and frantically check my pockets for something to pick up the poop with. Pull out the $20 bill and clean up the mess. Good thing I had that cash! 

  8. 14 minutes ago, Steve Tasker said:

    I would be very curious to see detailed stats on FF / DFS / "regular gambling" participation among football viewers, broken down by age, demographics, gender, and so on.  People playing for money, not playing for money, do people who consume more NFL content play more of these games, etc.  Though I'm not sure that data exists.

    The data exists but as Grove pointed out no one's going to just give it away.  Eilers & Krejcik will probably sell it to you for a few grand.  On the other hand, how specific  do you want to get?  Because the rough answers to most of your questions are pretty obvious/accessible.  ~50 million people play fantasy football.  ~10 million have ever played DFS, and a fraction of that are still currently active.  (Legal) sports betting is smaller still but that's because it's only in a few states.  It will quickly overtake DFS as it spreads nationwide.  It's largely a white male hobby, DFS skews younger, etc.  People who play for money consume a lot more content, and more inclined to pay for RedZone, etc. 

  9. DFS is alive and well.  It’s not having exponential growth the way it was in 2015 when the big sites were spending nine figures on advertising but that’s to be expected.  It’s matured but it’s not going away.  For whatever reason this place was never really a go-to for DFS discussion, there are other places on the internet where the community is still going strong.  

    And yeah, as sports betting rolls out nationwide it will become more and more of the focus.  And then as people discover in-play betting that will be even more.  It’s just the way things are going.  Why play season long when you can play DFS -> why play DFS when you can bet on games -> why bet on games when you can bet on the outcome of the next play…

  10. On 9/13/2020 at 9:18 PM, Stray Doug said:

    https://www.mysportsfeeds.com/data-feeds/

    https://profootballapi.com/

    If either of those can provide a usable feed (both have free trials) perhaps we could take up a collection to cover the cost, or petition FBG to help us out?

    Late to the party but I suspect these guys were just scraping NFL.com and reselling the data so they probably don't work anymore if NFL changed the way their site works.  

  11. 4 hours ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

    Broncos O 7 1/2 +125

    Giants 0 6.5 +135

     

    34 minutes ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

    Denver can be had at 7.5 no problem, but the under has been hit hard obviously and I'm not laying -145.  

    Giants are 6.5 -155 for the Under.  Again, not laying that kind of juice. 

    Mildly pedantic but it kinda irks me when people talk about a lot of juice on favorites.  +125/-145 or +135/-155 on those futures isn't a lot of juice, that's actually a pretty good spread on markets like those.  There's less vig there than you'd find on a typical -110 NFL spread.  It's just a reflection of what the market makes those probabilities out to be; whether or not it's a good price depends on what you think the probabilities are.  

  12. 54 minutes ago, Wingnut said:

    :lmao:

    Betting is fun. I dont get all serious about it, and thats what makes it fun. If it was like a job and I had to put work into it, that would be the opposite of fun.

    ...that's what I said.  Some people just want to put $20 on something crazy and don't really care if they end up profitable.  That's not their goal.  Then there are other people who might find it fun to make some money - the rest of my post was directed at those folks. :shrug: 

  13. so some people are already accustomed to betting, using offshore books, etc.  on the other end of the spectrum you have people who just want to throw $20 away on big parlays, etc. and don't care if they're net losers.  i suspect that in between there are a ton of regular guys who haven’t really been betting but would love to make some money betting with legal US sportsbooks as they roll out across the country.  if you’re in this group here are some basic tips.  each of these would really require their own post to explain fully so maybe we’ll do that later, but in the interests of starting some discussion:

    1. take all the free money.  you can build up a sizable bankroll with no risk by taking advantage of all the welcome offers and other promos going on right now.  it is not an exaggeration to say the sportsbooks will collectively just give you thousands of dollars right now.  these promos are all easily convertible into withdrawable cash (for slightly less than their nominal value).  do this first - if a site offers a $1,000 risk-free first bet, don’t place your first bet for $10, you’ve just thrown away all that value. 
    2. stop betting parlays.  they’re sucker bets.  before someone tries to get pedantic, there are unusual circumstances where they are actually useful - trust me when i say if you are reading this post for advice, those circumstances absolutely do not apply to you.  repeat: if you’re trying to make money, stop betting parlays. 
    3. shop around.  if you did step 1, you already have accounts with every online sportsbook in your state.  you will have noticed that some of them are basically clones of each other, built on the same exact software and offering the same exact lines and prices.  so in NJ, for example, there are something like 18 sportsbooks but like 6 of them are just the same kambi-powered book with a different color scheme or whatever.  so of 18 sportsbook brands there are really like 9 places to shop around or whatever.  when you’re ready to place a bet, check all of them for the best price.  reliably making money isn’t about winning a big jackpot off a small wager (see step 2).  actual pros tend to operate at small margins on large volume.  you’re trying to exploit small edges over and over - shopping for the best price is critical to that end.  
    4. keep taking the free money.  after you get all the signup bonuses, books continue to offer free bets, redeposit bonuses, etc.  typically less lucrative than the initial signup bonuses but free money nevertheless.  e.g. fanduel’s rams promo last night where they gave everyone $45.  not life-changing money but if you were walking down the street and saw $45 laying there, you’d pick it up right?  
    5. stay in your lane.  very broadly speaking there are two ways to make money betting (not including abusing all the promos).  you’re either a skilled handicapper who can beat the market as a whole, or you’re an arber who exploits holes in the market.  again, if you’re reading this for advice, you’re almost certainly not the former or you would have already been doing this.  (that said, it’s certainly possible you have some specific domain expertise on some niche sports or derivative markets, so it’s worth exploring.  if you’re a big fan of ukranian table tennis, for example, you might actually be able to beat the books straight up.  maybe your brother in law is a trainer for a soccer club and you have it (IT = INFO) that would give you a legitimate edge. use it.)  more likely, however, you don’t have any way to reliably beat the entire market, especially on NFL, but you can still play the books against each other.  look for arbitrage opportunities.  e.g. on thursday night one NJ book had kelce over 5.5 receptions at +110, and another book had kelce under 5.5 receptions at +125.  a talented handicapper might know which of those is the wrong price and bet it.  someone who knows absolutely nothing about football can just bet both sides and pick up the free money that the sportsbooks left lying on the ground there.  

    you could literally do step 1 and stop there if betting really isn’t your thing.  that’s what all my elderly relatives are doing.  :coffee:

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