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Ignoratio Elenchi

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Posts posted by Ignoratio Elenchi

  1. 3 minutes ago, Good Posting Judge said:

    $50? Not exactly :mansion: levels.


    On 9/8/2020 at 6:36 PM, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

    A new user in NJ right now could make something like $5k+ cash, completely risk-free, in no more than a week or so if they max out every sportsbook's welcome offer (there are something like 18 books now). . 

    Free money just getting thrown at people right now in a battle for market share. 

    • Love 1
  2. 7 minutes ago, Mr.Pack said:

    Which books do you find the best lines and most betting options at?

    If you mean of the legal US sportsbooks I can only speak to NJ but I think the most betting options tend to be FanDuel, bet365, DraftKings (roughly in that order, depending on sport).  And I guess PointsBet if you count all their weird markets.  Best lines will vary all over, that's why you have to shop.  Offshore you'll find better prices.  


    • Thanks 1
  3. 34 minutes ago, Caesar said:

    I'd be interested in your reasoning.  I think that is a low probability play.  I am not sure they could print an O/U where I would take the under on this game. 

    ...that's partly why I like it.  

    Edit: that wasn't a dig at you, by the way.  Realizing now it might read that way.  To elaborate on my comment:

    1) Betting markets have varying levels of efficiency, but a big 3 NFL market a few hours before kickoff is likely among the most efficient markets you'll ever find.  There's no way the under on an NFL game is ever a "low probability play," it's basically always by definition close to a 50/50 shot.  

    2) If you have a game where the general public sentiment is along the lines of "I am not sure they could print an O/U where I would take the under," then I would basically blind bet the under without even trying to handicap the game.  I don't think "fade the public" is a viable betting strategy in general but in this case it would be an indication that there's value in the under.  

    All that said, I'm not actually betting the total tonight.  Just saying if I had to place a bet on a widely available market, that's probably what I'd take.  Just throwing it out there for discussion.   

    • Thanks 1
  4. 10 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

    Any thoughts on how I can connect into this circle?   The sports betting message boards out there are garbage.

    Real answer is to get to know actual pros. Easiest way to do that is to offer to provide them with outs. People who do this for a living eventually get accounts limited to death and need fresh accounts to move money through. You can provide those accounts and then begin to learn the trade. 

    • Like 1
  5. I've entered this contest every year since the mid-aughts.  This is by far the least amount of time I've ever spent on an entry.  :shrug: 

    QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/5 - $14
    QB - Jared Goff - LAR/9 - $12
    QB - Drew Lock - DEN/8 - $8
    RB - Derrick Henry - TEN/7 - $30
    RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26
    RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/11 - $18
    RB - A.J. Dillon - GB/5 - $9
    RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9
    WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/10 - $12
    WR - Jerry Jeudy - DEN/8 - $12
    WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/11 - $11
    WR - Emmanuel Sanders - NO/6 - $11
    WR - Mecole Hardman - KC/10 - $10
    WR - Parris Campbell - IND/7 - $7
    WR - Allen Lazard - GB/5 - $7
    WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/9 - $3
    TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $17
    TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $11
    TE - Noah Fant - DEN/8 - $10
    PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
    PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2
    PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
    TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $2
    TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2
    TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/6 - $2

    • Like 3
  6. 1 hour ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

     3.) At the end of the semester, 20 students fill out a class evaluation for a professor. They can rank him on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is terrible and 5 is excellent. How many different ratings combinations are possible?

    Don't have a simple explanation this one but I figure it's just sampling 5 objects with replacement 20 times, and an online calculator tells me there are 10,626 possible combinations for that.  :shrug:  

    • Thanks 1
  7. 16 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

    There is likely a stipulation you have to play through your bonus winnings MULTIPLE times before you can withdraw anything.

    For the most part there isn't.  I've done it at just about every online book in NJ, typically you either get a 1x playthrough requirement, or the risk-free bet is refunded as a "free bet" that doesn't return the stake, only the winnings.  In any case, it's all still free money if you do it right.  Can easily clear $5k as a new user with little effort and literally no risk. 

  8. 13 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

    Show your work if possible. TIA

    1.) A state lottery consists of selecting balls from four containers, each consisting of balls numbered 0-9. Suppose you win if any permutation of your chosen four numbers win. Find the probability of winning if the four digits you chose were:                                            
    (a) 2, 3, 4, 5.                                                                    
    (b) 2, 3, 4, 4.                                                                    
    (c) 2, 2, 4, 4.     

    Quick takes on the first two questions...

    a) 0.0024

    b) 0.0012

    c) 0.0006

    Repeating digits gives you fewer permutations to win with. 

    13 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

    2. )Two friends choose to have a best of nine video game battle with the winner being the first player to win five times. A possible outcome would be BBABAABB where player A wins the3rd, 5th and 6th games while player B wins games 1,2,4,7, and 8. There is no 9th game because player B has already won 5 times. How many different orders are possible if the battle goes    
     (a) 6 games?                                                                 
     (b) 9 games?                                                                 

    a) 10.  If they play 6 games and one player wins 5 of them, the other player loses just 1.  There are five possible choices for the 1 he loses (he can't have lost the sixth game, because it would have already ended).  Either player could be the one to lose, so we double it to get 10. 

    b) 140. There are (8 choose 4) = 70 different ways for the first 8 games to be split 4-4.  For each of those, there are two possible outcomes in the 9th game, so 70 x 2 = 140.


    Will take a stab at #3 in a bit.  

  9. Most people aren't handicapping NFL games, and most people who claim to be handicapping NFL games are terrible at it.  In particular, anyone who's waiting for legal sportsbooks to show up in their state would be wasting their time trying to win money on NFL - if they were good enough to make money betting NFL they'd already be doing it offshore.  

    Content that would be useful to most of this community is more along the lines of this: 

    On 9/7/2020 at 5:29 PM, Buckna said:

    Would be curious to talk some arbitrage bets with bonuses. Draft Kings and a few others are advertising like crazy in my state with stuff like $500 free matched bets, etc.

    A new user in NJ right now could make something like $5k+ cash, completely risk-free, in no more than a week or so if they max out every sportsbook's welcome offer (there are something like 18 books now).  I imagine it is, or will be, the same in every other state where sports betting is legalized and all these same books enter eventually.  Take the free money first.  Then if you want to burn some betting NFL sides, go for it.  But don't waste the opportunity to take the free money when the books are giving it out. 

    • Like 4
  10. On 8/17/2020 at 5:15 PM, mr. furley said:

    i'm at the stage where i want to look clean and sharp and am losing interest in shorts & tees all the time, but it's hard to find that next level of simple and comfortable because it doesn't seem to exist for summer clothes.

    there has to be a space between shorts or jeans & tees without going all the way to suits.


    i'm not a deck shoes and long sleeve button down with khakis guy. not going to be wearing linen slacks and button downs. not moneyed enough to experiment too much as i can't just try things out and discard them if they don't work, etc.


    There are tons of options here.  You can wear tees and look nice, just get well-fitting solid colors or something.  In between tees and button-downs you can go with polo shirts.  Button downs always work, so I wouldn't dismiss them entirely - you can do long sleeve (with sleeves rolled up) or short sleeve.  Make sure they're cut shorter to be worn untucked, don't wear your business casual Van Heusens hanging down past your ###.  Any of those shirt options worn with a nice pair of shorts (again, well-fitting, flat front, not too long, no cargo pockets, etc.) and you'll look better than 95% of the other dads out there.  Can still rock sneakers if you're not into boat shoes or bucks or whatever, there are plenty of options that are reasonably priced and don't look like you buy clothes at the same place you buy your bulk toilet paper.  With any of those styles just get some no-show socks and you're good.  It's honestly pretty simple to look non-schlubby without being too try-hard, just keep it simple.  

    • Like 2
  11. 2 hours ago, DocHolliday said:

    How in the hell can it be safe for 75 kids kids play football but kids can’t sit in classrooms.   

    Not an expert so I’m not saying it is safer, but kids playing football outdoors for a few hours seems a lot different than kids sitting inside a classroom all day. As a parent I’d be more comfortable with the former, given what I know about the disease so far. :shrug:  

  12. 1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

    I suppose if you knew upfront that a store included tax, that novelty would get some traction. 

    It would be just that, a novelty. You’d need it to be mandatory before any other businesses adopted the practice. Especially given the varying tax rates across different jurisdictions it seems like it would be a big headache for business with no tangible benefits. 

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