Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Ack88

Members
  • Posts

    1,585
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Ack88

  1. I have him as a $1 dart throw from my last auction. I think the Jets will be better than most expect, so the potential to evolve into a usable option exists if he can separate from Coleman.
  2. Updated post Julio trade: 2021 Rankings- Phase XIII (June 7th) 1. McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per game scoring numbers remain a cut above all other RBs. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format. 2. Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload on a team that prefers defaults towards a run first philosophy. 3. Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Likely, based on historical norms, primed for one or two more big years before steep drop. Adding Julio should reduce the frequency of 8 man fronts. 4. Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Dak returns and the line is likely to be both bolstered in terms of draft capital and more healthy. 5. D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats. Unlikely to surpass last year’s astounding numbers but the clear WR1. So long as Rodgers remains in GB, an elite option. If Rodgers leaves, drops at least into the deep teens, perhaps further. Keeping him here until something formally changes. 6. A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Optimally efficient. Now that his long-term place in GB is secure, no reason why he’s not an easy first round pick. May see more passing game volume with Williams’ move to the Motor City. Drops if Rodgers leaves, but making no adjustment until this issue resolves. 7. J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring. The Rivers to Wentz transition does not change my valuation. Mack & Hines may siphon enough touches to prevent an ascendance to the top 3. 8. T. Kelce- Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings. 9. T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB. 10. Kamara- While still a stud, has to be moved back from original rankings. Brees is gone and neither Winston, and especially Hill, give me enough pause to slide to the back of round #1. 11. N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense. 12. Mixon- Burrow returns & line upgraded. Surrounding cast strong. Will return to RB1 status. Bernard’s departure only helps. Adding Chase is a net positive. 13. DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success. The texture of the Seahawks offensive to close last season puts a slight bend in the arc of Metcalf’s ceiling. 14. D. Hopkins- Crushed it year one in Arizona. Year two looks equally promising. 15. A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension. Will, and should be higher in ppr formats. 16. Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued season. The latest reports anticipate a full week #1 return, but at a reduced volume. 17. C. Ridley- The clear #1 option on what should be a pass heavy team. 18. S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory. The entire Bills starting offense returns, as does Brian Daboll. 19. J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard. I think he’s really, really good but has been just a tad overrated thus far. 20. AJ Brown- Adding Julio doesn’t significantly impact Brown’s role. There will be plenty of big games from both this year. 21. C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be. Stafford’s addition helps. The small sample and RB volatility give me pause but Akers was dynamic to close the season. 22. Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. The VBD value over multiple seasons makes for a worthy second round choice. 23. Najee Harris- Primed for a huge workload. The Steelers do not want to be pass heavy. Harris is the back they have been looking for and will excel right out of the gate. The early indication is that Harris will do everything right away. 24. Thomas- Going from Brees to Hill/Winston is a clear downgrade. Still a back end WR1. 25. K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert. 26. M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Workload a bit muddled given all the changes in Philadelphia. A full year of Hurts and the Smith add bolster the group as a whole. 27. Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. The QB situation must be monitored. Even with Aiyuk and Deebo, still the likely #1 target in the Niner’s passing attack. If Lance gets starts early, perhaps Kittle’s numbers drop a bit. 28. A. Gibson- Feel like I’ve been too low on Gibson. He has a 3 down skill set and the surrounding competition doesn’t create any trepidation on my part. 29. A. Cooper- Dak is back and the offense looks well positioned for a top 3 finish. I’d be elated to have him as my round 3 choice. 30. Julio Jones- Tannehill is better than Ryan at this point. Volume will likely recede but efficiency should rise with Brown on the other side and Henry in the backfield. 31. J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high. 32. D. Swift- Three down talent but questions about the poor surrounding cast and workload. Most certainly a better dynasty than redraft option. Williams will eat into passing game role and poach more than an insignificant number of carries. 33. A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats. 34. McLaurin- Fitz coming to the WFT is a bump. Won’t be the gunslinger he was in Tampa, taking fewer chances due to a potentially elite defense. Still, McLaurin is a riser. 35. C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays. Physical, contact seeking running style is a total throwback. 36. Dobbins- Still will be very productive despite likely lead role in a committee. Edwards will return and play an important role, but Dobbins is still likely to lead this tandem. Upside capped, in part, by Jackson’s rushing and goal line prowess. Ultimately feel he will be drafted at his ceiling, so I’m unlikely to have many shares this season. 37. D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle/end of round 3 feels right to me. Cohen returns to passing game role. D. Williams will also vulture touches, too. 38. T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive. The philosophical shift away from heavy pass volume back to a more run based approach is cause for concern as Metcalf is the alpha. 39. CEH- Underwhelming as a rookie. Looks to be in some form of timeshare for the foreseeable future. 40. Jacobs- The Drake signing moves him down from #17 to #40. No longer a backend RB1, more like a backend RB2. Oakland’s approach to personnel remains questionable to me. 41. L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act. 42. A. Robinson- Deserves the chance to play with elite level QB. Perhaps Fields can be that guy. Still solid, even if Dalton opens the year under center. 43. Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double-digit TDs. Hard to argue against. Will likely never ascend to the career arc we all hoped for, but nonetheless as solid as they come as a WR2. 44. D. Waller- Target hog and elite athlete with great connection to Carr. Will be bumped up in ppr leagues. This ranking is based on standard scoring. 45. D. Johnson- Huge target volume. With Roethlisberger back for one more year, short term bump. His game fits hand in glove with Ben’s diminished arm strength and declining mobility. 46. T. Etienne- Reunited with Lawrence. Likely starts in a timeshare with Robinson but will have value. Lacks the workload of Harris but clearly a top 25 RB. 47. R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside. Stafford will elevate his value. 48. Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options. 49. Godwin- I think the slightly down 2020 season sets up a nice value- based buy low, perhaps 85 cents or so on the dollar. Brady will be back and finger fully healed. 50. K. Golladay- Signing with the NYG is a net neutral from re-upping with the Lions. We know Golladay can produce, the better question is: Can Jones grow into a legitimate fantasy QB or is he waiver wire fodder? 51. DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. Darnold should help a little. 52. K. Pitts- Simply too much talent and too ideal a landing spot to keep out of the top, even if historical rookie TE production is lagging. 53. CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cowboys flush with high end options. 54. Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce. Hunt has both stand alone value and upside should Chubb miss time. 55. R. Wilson- Second half was pedestrian. Will Seattle return to ground and pound? Coaching hires and departures suggest yes. Nonetheless, hard to see Russ dropping out of the top 7 QBs. 56. J. Chase- Elite talent finds ideal landing spot 57. K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer. 58. W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test. 59. C. Edmonds- With Drake’s departure and RB thirst, Edmonds becomes tantalizing option. Connor will take touches. 60. D. Prescott- On a scintillating pace before devastating injury. 61. D. Harris- Played well and put up good numbers in starts last year. Looks to hold the primary, early down role on a likely run heavy team, but Michel and Stevenson lurk. 62. T. Sermon- Right fit for SF. Backfield is jammed but pathway to starting job is not too challenging. Upper end of outcomes could have Sermon as top 15 back. 63. J. Williams- Will be the lead back in Denver next year- at the latest. 64. M. Gaskin- Has little competition for carries after Fins bypassed drafting RBs. 65. T. Higgins- The Bengals will surprise people this year. Higgins, even with the addition of Chase, should grow into a bigger role. 66. C. Cupp- Should be a central cog in Rams refurbished offense. 67. R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid. No passing game role. Fournette & Bernard form a nice real backfield, but a problematic on in fantasy football 68. OBJ- May present sneaky value here. Mayfield has improved. 69. M. Gordon- Williams looks to grow into the lead role, but that won’t likely be until 2022. Gordon still viable as a back end RB2. 70. Chark- The likely WR1 on a Trevor Lawrence led passing attack. 71. J. Jeudy- A devastating route runner who cannot throw himself the ball. 72. Cooks- Should be in mostly pass heavy scripts all year long. 73. M. Andrews- Will not return to 2019 efficiency, but 2021 portends better than 2020. 74. Hockenson- The best pass catcher on an otherwise underwhelming offense. 75. JuJu- Took less to return to Pittsburgh. Likely a pass volume reduction. 76. Hurts- Rushing upside hides marginal passing chops. One-year tryout. 77. B. Aiyuk- Regardless of QB, 9ers poised to grow offensively, w/ Aiyuk taking another step forward. 78. J. Robinson- Still will have some sort of role and can play. 79. D. Smith- The Heisman winner is worth a dart throw as he is easily the best WR in Philly. 80. L. Fournette- He may move up, and RoJo down, when all is said and done. Useage unclear. 81. G. Edwards- Role known and established. Has the 40% share of committee role. 82. M. Davis- The presumptive starter for now. Wore down last year. 83. C. Sutton- Rodgers to the Mile High City would be a boon. 84. J. Herbert- Should be even better year #2. 85. Z. Moss- Has the talent and build to be the early down banger on an excellent team. 86. AJ Dillon- Should see increased workload. Impressed in single spot start. 87. M. Carter- Has as good a chance as anyone to lead NYJ backfield in touches, especially as a pass catcher. 88. K. Drake- Will have a role in LV, but not sure where and how he fits there. 89. D. Samuel- Versatile playmaker will need maximum efficiency. 90. T. Brady- The GOAT in real football is a back end QB1 in fake football. 91. D. Goeddert- Worth a speculation play at this point in a draft. 92. M. Stafford- Perhaps we will see how talented Stafford is now. 93. C. Samuel- A swiss army knife that will be fun to watch. 94. D. Johnson- Volume dependent starter on bad team. 95. J. Connor- Will he get a 40% touch share in AZ backfield? 96. J. Burrow- The line still scares me, but playmakers abound. 97. C. Davis- Steps into the WR1 role with rookie QB. 98. D. Parker- Reasonably safe floor, could remain the WR 1 in Miami. 99. T. Higbee- Flashed 2 years ago, has big opportunity with Everett’s departure and upgraded QB play. 100. N. Fant- QB play will tell the story. Has a top 5 skill set.
  3. More notes, players 51-100: Picks 51-70: This is a range where I start to diverge from my traditionally conservative start. I like to establish a core of between 4 and 5 players that have a higher floor but lower ceiling then those drafted in the same range. Starting about here, I’ll take players with a wider range of potential outcomes and greater bust potential. Chase Edmonds fits this list. He’ll likely have first crack at the lead RB gig on a team that looks to be a top quarter team in terms of yards and scores. I also have Trey Sermon here. Remember, my rankings are keeper based, so overdrafting a rookie for potential later benefit, does play a role in my calculus. Simply put, the 9ers have an elite running game, traded up to get Sermon, and the competition is average. Mostert and Wilson are decent players, but Sermon is an easy cut above in my book. As he presents an enormous ceiling, I’ll reach. Damien Harris is another interesting speculation play here. He was legitimately good and received solid volume last year. Michel’s option wasn’t picked up and Stevenson has middling draft capital, so he’s not ensured to play a major role. The Patriots will likely have a heavy run/pass ratio and seem to be constructed to play lots of 12 personnel sets. Couple this with a defense that will keep games low scoring, and I think Harris could sneakily slip into the top 15 RB. I want to reiterate that these players could easily bust, but at some point in a draft, you have to take calculated risks, plant your flag and move on players you feel strongly enough about. Edmonds and Sermon could easily bust, but if they hit, and the range of outcomes says they could, from a cost/risk analysis, drafting either (or both) put you in a great position to win. The Gordon/Williams timeshare is giving me a struggle right now. There is no question that Williams is the guy next year, but this year the roles are uncertain. Admittedly, this situation is fluid and likely to change, but Gordon has been good enough to merit top 60 consideration. Picks 71-80: Hockenson feels like a layup to outproduce his draft position- the best pass catcher with little competition for targets as the Williams, Perriman, Ceephus triumvirate doesn’t inspire fear in anyone. Sprinkle in a game manager at QB in Goff who doesn’t like to buy time with his legs and would prefer to get the ball out quickly, and Hockenson feels primed for a big year. Hurts is a complete boom/bust type- could be top 12, could also be a backup by 2022, as the new regime did not draft him but the owner appears to want to provide him with a crack at sealing the long term role. JuJu feels like he’s been in the league forever but he’s only 26 (if not younger) and this may be his last go-round in Pittsburgh. The Steelers feel like a team that could blow it up if Ben struggles, as he’s at the end of the line. Still, JuJu will get his. Picks 81-90: Dillon and Drake are both high end handcuffs with some standalone value. As I’ve said earlier, I’m still puzzled as to why the Raiders spent so much, relatively speaking, to obtain Drake with Jacobs already there and productive. Still, Drake will play a fair amount and seemingly have purposeful touches built into the offense. Similarly, Dillon will get some iteration of the old Jamaal Williams touch share- likely having a few more carries, but fewer receptions. Intellectually, you would also think Dillon would get a nice share of the goal line carries, but that isn’t set. Michael Carter could easily lead the NYJ backfield in touches. He’s a good prospect with underwhelming competition for touches. That alone gets him on this list. Brady and Stafford remain starter worthy but have little to offer on the ground. Both should toss around 35-40 TD passes and be back end QB1. Wilson rates highly enough to be on this list because whomever carves out the lead back role on the 9ers has top 15 chops. Picks 91-100: Burrow has a treasure chest of weapons and enough mobility to create a touch of upside with his legs. My concern is that the line play, while likely to be better, coupled with the knee injury, may render that upside moot. I like Burrow enough to have him in a top 100. David Johnson will be over drafted everywhere this summer. He’s a declining player on a bad team that will most certainly be moving on from him. Lindsay, IMO is a straight up better back and should play the most snaps. Pass here. Tyler Higbee has a major upgrade at QB and enough history as a high end dart throw to make the top 100. Gerald Everett is gone. He could completely torpedo but is worth a stab at this point in a draft. These types of selections, where the cost is relatively low, but the range of outcomes include high end production, are what we all need to win our leagues.
  4. Point taken. I'm going to re-evaluate the SF passing game. Aiyuk belongs on this list.
  5. As a reminder to those just jumping into this thread, my rankings are for standard scoring and are keeper based. From a roster build perspective, I value RBs more than most. The fact that this is a standard format, coupled with exceptional depth at WR will skew this grouping more than others. Additionally, I prefer to just plant my flag on certain players, so you will find some divergence from my rankings and groupthink. Some may be critical of my risk aversion, and, admittedly, I operate from a lens that tends to trend towards multiple years of production as an impetus to a high ranking, as opposed to a single year of production. As an example, Justin Jefferson had a fantastic rookie year and likely will be ranked higher on others’ lists because I like to the second act prior to using a single data point to overank, which coalesces with my tendency towards the top of drafts to be on the conservative side. Here are some additional, anecdotal notes, grouped by players in bins of ten. Not every player will be commented on, only those that I feel require more elaboration. I’ll start with 1-50 and add more later: Players 1-10: I just love the Zeke rebound spot here. Three premier lineman return, Prescott is back. High volume in an elite offense remains likely. Pollard may hijack a few more totes, but Zeke is 25 years old with tens of millions owed to him. He’ll rebound and crush his ADP. I’m a little down on Kamara. Think the Saints are in decline. Winston and Hill do not engender any excitement on my part. Hill is especially worrisome as a starter. Kamara’s receiving chops keep him as an RB one, but the TDs will fall, perhaps back into the 6-7 total range as I don’t love this offensive unit. If we knew Taylor would get 75% or so of the touches, he’s a top 3 pick. There’s enough value drain from Mack, Hines, etc.. along with the unknown of Wentz to keep JT out of the top 5. Adams and Jones, should Rodgers leave and Love start, would both see precipitous drops. My gut still has Rodgers starting in GB week #1- but that’s based only on a feeling. Players 11-20: I just love Joe Mixon. Remember- with the dregs of the known universe as the Bengals o-line for years, he still was a legitimate back end RB 1. The team has done enough at the position (Carman and Reiff) to make the line respectable. Burrow should return in full and, the presence of Chase, Higgins, and Boyd should prevent perpetual 8 men boxes. Give me Mixon all day long. I think he may finish as a top 6 or 7 back this year. AJ Brown could finish as a top 3 overall WR this year- no competition for targets- there is no player in the league that has a worse set of complimentary receiving options than the Titans. Couple that with what we know Henry can and will do, and we have a potentially dominant season (lead the league in targets?) on the horizon. Players 21-30: I’m trying to keep a balanced perspective regarding Cam Akers, but the ceiling is sky high. The Rams are primed to light it up, and Stafford’s ability to open up another universe of playcalling is an alluring proposition. Still, Henderson is there and will play a role. Miles Sanders elicits all types of opinions, my guess is he’ll have a fairly wide range of draft outcomes. Because he has a diverse skill set, there are a lack of quality options behind him, and the Eagles look to be bottom third on defense, I’ll buy. Players 31-40: Theilen will be underrated everywhere- buy shares where you can- the gap between him and Jefferson is less than ADP suggests. Dobbins, Montgomery, and CEH are all dart throws, in that there is an equally likely case that they both underperform and overperform their current ADP. I’m looking to avoid all three at their current cost- my builds, if I have my way, will go either RB/RB or Kelce/RB, moving to WR (and even QB) before pivoting to WR in bulk at around this numerical range. Picks 41-50: Lower on ARob than most due to the QB situation, but he’ll likely be just fine. Also lower on Waller than consensus, but want to avoid LVR players in general- their roster build is quizzical to me and they have swapped out 3 lineman from last year. Hard pass. Dionte Johnson is a player I’ll look to grab everywhere. Not a world beater but gets absurd volume. At this point in a fantasy draft, I like that level of opportunity. Already hate the Etienne WR experiment. His usage is a huge question, as is the still undefined pecking order in JAX. Not really interested in this type of investment with so much to play out.
  6. Updated to include Julip Jones, who was missed last time. 2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase XII 1. McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per game scoring numbers remain a cut above all other RBs. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format. 2. Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload on a team that prefers defaults towards a run first philosophy. 3. Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Likely, based on historical norms, primed for one or two more big years before steep drop. 4. Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Dak returns and the line is likely to be both bolstered in terms of draft capital and more healthy. 5. D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats. Unlikely to surpass last year’s astounding numbers but the clear WR1. So long as Rodgers remains in GB, an elite option. If Rodgers leaves, drops at least into the deep teens, perhaps further. Keeping him here until something formally changes. 6. A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Optimally efficient. Now that his long-term place in GB is secure, no reason why he’s not an easy first round pick. May see more passing game volume with Williams’ move to the Motor City. Drops if Rodgers leaves, but making no adjustment until this issue resolves. 7. J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring. The Rivers to Wentz transition does not change my valuation. Mack & Hines may siphon enough touches to prevent an ascendance to the top 3. 8. T. Kelce- Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings. 9. T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB. 10. Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued season. The latest reports anticipate a full week #1 return. 11. Kamara- While still a stud, has to be moved back from original rankings. Brees is gone and neither Winston, and especially Hill, give me enough pause to slide to the back of round #1. 12. N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense. 13. DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success. The texture of the Seahawks offensive to close last season puts a slight bend in the arc of Metcalf’s ceiling. 14. D. Hopkins- Crushed it year one in Arizona. Year two looks equally promising. 15. Mixon- Burrow returns & line upgraded. Surrounding cast strong. Will return to RB1 status. Bernard’s departure only helps. Adding Chase is a net positive. 16. A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension. Will, and should be higher in ppr formats. 17. S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory. The entire Bills starting offense returns, as does Brian Daboll. 18. J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard. I think he’s really, really good but has been just a tad overrated thus far. 19. AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. The departures of Smith and Davis portend more targets. 20. Thomas- Going from Brees to Hill/Winston is a clear downgrade. Still a back end WR1. 21. K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert. 22. Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. The VBD value over multiple seasons makes for a worthy second round choice. Concerns about the offensive line need to be addressed. 23. C. Ridley- The potential Ridley, Julio, Pitts triumvirate has massive upside as a collective. All three will eat this year, with Ridley likely to be the most statistically dominant. 24. C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be. Stafford’s addition helps. The small sample and RB volatility give me pause but Akers was dynamic to close the season. 25. M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Workload a bit muddled given all the changes in Philadelphia. A full year of Hurts and the Smith add bolster the group as a whole. 26. Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. The QB situation must be monitored. Even with Aiyuk and Deebo, still the likely #1 target in the Niner’s passing attack. If Lance gets starts early, perhaps Kittle’s numbers drop a bit. 27. Najee Harris- Primed for a huge workload. The Steelers do not want to be pass heavy. Harris is the back they have been looking for and will excel right out of the gate. 28. A. Gibson- Feel like I’ve been too low on Gibson. He has a 3 down skill set and the surrounding competition doesn’t create any trepidation on my part. 29. A. Cooper- Dak is back and the offense looks well positioned for a top 3 finish. I’d be elated to have him as my round 3 choice. 30. J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high. 31. D. Swift- Three down talent but questions about the poor surrounding cast and workload. Most certainly a better dynasty than redraft option. Williams will eat into passing game role and poach more than an insignificant number of carries. 32. A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats. 33. McLaurin- Fitz coming to the WFT is a bump. Won’t be the gunslinger he was in Tampa, taking fewer chances due to a potentially elite defense. Still, McLaurin is a riser. 34. C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays. Short term 35. Julio Jones- Upside remains in the top 20 overall players but questions regarding a trade, age, and injury status present a wider range of outcomes then I’m comfortable with at that price point. 36. Dobbins- Still will be very productive despite likely lead role in a committee. Edwards will return and play an important role, but Dobbins is still likely to lead this tandem. Upside capped, in part, by Jackson’s rushing and goal line prowess. Ultimately feel he will be drafted at his ceiling, so I’m unlikely to have many shares this season. 37. D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle/end of round 3 feels right to me. Cohen returns to passing game role. D. Williams will also vulture touches, too. 38. T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive. The philosophical shift away from heavy pass volume back to a more run based approach is cause for concern as Metcalf is the alpha. 39. CEH- Underwhelming as a rookie. Looks to be in some form of timeshare for the foreseeable future. Need to replenish the offensive line. 40. Jacobs- The Drake signing moves him down from #17 to #39. No longer a backend RB1, more like a backend RB2. Oakland’s approach to personnel remains questionable to me. There is a scenario that has folks overvaluing Drake and perhaps could make Jacobs a value. 41. L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act. 42. A. Robinson- Deserves the chance to play with elite level QB. Perhaps Fields can be that guy. Still solid, even if Dalton opens the year under center. 43. Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double-digit TDs. Hard to argue against. Will likely never ascend to the career arc we all hoped for, but nonetheless as solid as they come as a WR2. 44. D. Waller- Target hog and elite athlete with great connection to Carr. Will be bumped up in ppr leagues. This ranking is based on standard scoring. 45. D. Johnson- Huge target volume. With Roethlisberger back for one more year, short term bump. His game fits hand in glove with Ben’s diminished arm strength and declining mobility. 46. T. Etienne- Reunited with Lawrence. Likely starts in a timeshare with Robinson but will have value. Lacks the workload of Harris but clearly a top 25 RB. 47. R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside. Stafford will elevate his value. 48. Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options. 49. Godwin- I think the slightly down 2020 season sets up a nice value- based buy low, perhaps 85 cents or so on the dollar. Brady will be back and finger fully healed. 50. K. Golladay- Signing with the NYG is a net neutral from re-upping with the Lions. We know Golladay can produce, the better question is: Can Jones grow into a legitimate fantasy QB or is he waiver wire fodder? 51. DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. Darnold should help a little. 52. M. Gordon- Williams looks to grow into the lead role, but that won’t likely be until 2022. Gordon still viable as a back end RB2. 53. Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce. 54. CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cowboys flush with high end options. 55. R. Wilson- Second half was pedestrian. Will Seattle return to ground and pound? Coaching hires and departures suggest yes. Nonetheless, hard to see Russ dropping out of the top 7 QBs. 56. J. Chase- Elite talent finds ideal landing spot 57. K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer. 58. K. Pitts- Simply too much talent and too ideal a landing spot to keep out of the top, even if historical rookie TE production is lagging. 59. W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test. 60. C. Edmonds- With Drake’s departure and RB thirst, Edmonds becomes tantalizing option. Connor will take touches. 61. D. Harris- Played well and put up good numbers in starts last year. Looks to hold the primary, early down role on a likely run heavy team, but Michel and Stevenson lurk. 62. T. Sermon- Right fit for SF. Backfield is jammed but pathway to starting job is not too challenging. Upper end of outcomes could have Sermon as top 15 back. 63. M. Gaskin- Has little competition for carries after Fins bypassed drafting RBs. 64. C. Cupp- Should be a central cog in Rams refurbished offense. 65. R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid. No passing game role. Fournette & Bernard form a nice real backfield, but a problematic on in fantasy football 66. OBJ- May present sneaky value here. Mayfield has improved. 67. Chark- The likely WR1 on a Trevor Lawrence led passing attack. 68. J. Jeudy- A devastating route runner who cannot throw himself the ball. 69. D. Prescott- On a scintillating pace before devastating injury. 70. Cooks- Should be in mostly pass heavy scripts all year long. 71. M. Andrews- Will not return to 2019 efficiency, but 2021 portends better than 2020. 72. T. Higgins- The Bengals will surprise people this year. 73. Hockenson- The best pass catcher on an otherwise underwhelming offense. 74. JuJu- Took less to return to Pittsburgh. Likely a pass volume reduction. 75. Hurts- Rushing upside hides marginal passing chops. One-year tryout. 76. J. Robinson- Still will have some sort of role and can play. 77. D. Smith- The Heisman winner is worth a dart throw as he is easily the best WR in Philly. 78. L. Fournette- He may move up, and RoJo down, when all is said and done. Useage unclear. 79. G. Edwards- Role known and established. Has the 40% share of committee role. 80. M. Davis- The presumptive starter for now. Wore down last year. 81. C. Sutton- Rodgers to the Mile High City would be a boon. 82. J. Herbert- Should be even better year #2. 83. Z. Moss- Has the talent and build to be the early down banger on an excellent team. 84. AJ Dillon- Should see increased workload. Impressed in single spot start. 85. M. Carter- Has as good a chance as anyone to lead NYJ backfield in touches, especially as a pass catcher. 86. K. Drake- Will have a role in LV, but not sure where and how he fits there. 87. D. Samuel- Versatile playmaker will need maximum efficiency. 88. T. Brady- The GOAT in real football is a back end QB1 in fake football. 89. D. Goeddert- Worth a speculation play at this point in a draft. 90. J. Wilson- Upside gamble on having a sizable role in elite ground game. 91. M. Stafford- Perhaps we will see how talented Stafford is now. 92. C. Samuel- A swiss army knife that will be fun to watch. 93. D. Johnson- Volume dependent starter on bad team. 94. J. Connor- Will he get a 40% touch share in AZ backfield? 95. J. Burrow- The line still scares me, but playmakers abound. 96. C. Davis- Steps into the WR1 role with rookie QB. 97. D. Parker- Reasonably safe floor, could remain the WR 1 in Miami. 98. T. Higbee- Flashed 2 years ago, has big opportunity with Everett’s departure and upgraded QB play. 99. N. Fant- QB play will tell the story. Has a top 5 skill set. 100. A. Rodgers- Will he play? This is based upon if a draft was right now. I’d gamble here.
  7. Thanks for the catch- that is one glaring omission.
  8. Updated to include a post draft Top 100: These are not projection driven, more anecdotal. List will continue to evolve. Feedback welcomed. 2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase XI 1. McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per game scoring numbers remain a cut above all other RBs. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format. 2. Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload on a team that prefers defaults towards a run first philosophy. 3. Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Likely, based on historical norms, primed for one or two more big years before steep drop. 4. Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Dak returns and the line is likely to be both bolstered in terms of draft capital and more healthy. 5. D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats. Unlikely to surpass last year’s astounding numbers but the clear WR1. So long as Rodgers remains in GB, an elite option. If Rodgers leaves, drops at least into the deep teens, perhaps further. Keeping him here until something formally changes. 6. A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Optimally efficient. Now that his long-term place in GB is secure, no reason why he’s not an easy first round pick. May see more passing game volume with Williams’ move to the Motor City. Drops if Rodgers leaves, but making no adjustment until this issue resolves. 7. J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring. The Rivers to Wentz transition does not change my valuation. Mack & Hines may siphon enough touches to prevent an ascendance to the top 3. 8. T. Kelce- Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings. 9. T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB. 10. Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued season. The latest reports anticipate a full week #1 return. 11. Kamara- While still a stud, has to be moved back from original rankings. Brees is gone and neither Winston, and especially Hill, give me enough pause to slide to the back of round #1. 12. N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense. 13. DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success. The texture of the Seahawks offensive to close last season puts a slight bend in the arc of Metcalf’s ceiling. 14. D. Hopkins- Crushed it year one in Arizona. Year two looks equally promising. 15. Mixon- Burrow returns & line upgraded. Surrounding cast strong. Will return to RB1 status. Bernard’s departure only helps. Adding Chase is a net positive. 16. A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension. Will, and should be higher in ppr formats. 17. S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory. The entire Bills starting offense returns, as does Brian Daboll. 18. J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard. I think he’s really, really good but has been just a tad overrated thus far. 19. AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. The departures of Smith and Davis portend more targets. 20. Thomas- Going from Brees to Hill/Winston is a clear downgrade. Still a back end WR1. 21. K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert. 22. Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. The VBD value over multiple seasons makes for a worthy second round choice. Concerns about the offensive line need to be addressed. 23. C. Ridley- The potential Ridley, Julio, Pitts triumvirate has massive upside as a collective. All three will eat this year, with Ridley likely to be the most statistically dominant. 24. C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be. Stafford’s addition helps. The small sample and RB volatility give me pause but Akers was dynamic to close the season. 25. M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Workload a bit muddled given all the changes in Philadelphia. A full year of Hurts and the Smith add bolster the group as a whole. 26. Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. The QB situation must be monitored. Even with Aiyuk and Deebo, still the likely #1 target in the Niner’s passing attack. If Lance gets starts early, perhaps Kittle’s numbers drop a bit. 27. Najee Harris- Primed for a huge workload. The Steelers do not want to be pass heavy. Harris is the back they have been looking for and will excel right out of the gate. 28. A. Gibson- Feel like I’ve been too low on Gibson. He has a 3 down skill set and the surrounding competition doesn’t create any trepidation on my part. 29. A. Cooper- Dak is back and the offense looks well positioned for a top 3 finish. I’d be elated to have him as my round 3 choice. 30. J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high. 31. D. Swift- Three down talent but questions about the poor surrounding cast and workload. Most certainly a better dynasty than redraft option. Williams will eat into passing game role and poach more than an insignificant number of carries. 32. A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats. 33. McLaurin- Fitz coming to the WFT is a bump. Won’t be the gunslinger he was in Tampa, taking fewer chances due to a potentially elite defense. Still, McLaurin is a riser. 34. C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays. Short term 35. Dobbins- Still will be very productive despite likely lead role in a committee. Edwards will return and play an important role, but Dobbins is still likely to lead this tandem. Upside capped, in part, by Jackson’s rushing and goal line prowess. Ultimately feel he will be drafted at his ceiling, so I’m unlikely to have many shares this season. 36. D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle/end of round 3 feels right to me. Cohen returns to passing game role. D. Williams will also vulture touches, too. 37. T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive. The philosophical shift away from heavy pass volume back to a more run based approach is cause for concern as Metcalf is the alpha. 38. CEH- Underwhelming as a rookie. Looks to be in some form of timeshare for the foreseeable future. Need to replenish the offensive line. 39. Jacobs- The Drake signing moves him down from #17 to #39. No longer a backend RB1, more like a backend RB2. Oakland’s approach to personnel remains questionable to me. There is a scenario that has folks overvaluing Drake and perhaps could make Jacobs a value. 40. L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act. 41. A. Robinson- Deserves the chance to play with elite level QB. Perhaps Fields can be that guy. Still solid, even if Dalton opens the year under center. 42. Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double-digit TDs. Hard to argue against. Will likely never ascend to the career arc we all hoped for, but nonetheless as solid as they come as a WR2. 43. D. Waller- Target hog and elite athlete with great connection to Carr. Will be bumped up in ppr leagues. This ranking is based on standard scoring. 44. D. Johnson- Huge target volume. With Roethlisberger back for one more year, short term bump. His game fits hand in glove with Ben’s diminished arm strength and declining mobility. 45. T. Etienne- Reunited with Lawrence. Likely starts in a timeshare with Robinson but will have value. Lacks the workload of Harris but clearly a top 25 RB. 46. R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside. Stafford will elevate his value. 47. Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options. 48. Godwin- I think the slightly down 2020 season sets up a nice value- based buy low, perhaps 85 cents or so on the dollar. Brady will be back and finger fully healed. 49. K. Golladay- Signing with the NYG is a net neutral from re-upping with the Lions. We know Golladay can produce, the better question is: Can Jones grow into a legitimate fantasy QB or is he waiver wire fodder? 50. DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. Darnold should help a little. 51. M. Gordon- Williams looks to grow into the lead role, but that won’t likely be until 2022. Gordon still viable as a back end RB2. 52. Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce. 53. CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cowboys flush with high end options. 54. R. Wilson- Second half was pedestrian. Will Seattle return to ground and pound? Coaching hires and departures suggest yes. Nonetheless, hard to see Russ dropping out of the top 7 QBs. 55. J. Chase- Elite talent finds ideal landing spot 56. K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer. 57. K. Pitts- Simply too much talent and too ideal a landing spot to keep out of the top, even if historical rookie TE production is lagging. 58. W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test. 59. C. Edmonds- With Drake’s departure and RB thirst, Edmonds becomes tantalizing option. Connor will take touches. 60. D. Harris- Played well and put up good numbers in starts last year. Looks to hold the primary, early down role on a likely run heavy team, but Michel and Stevenson lurk. 61. T. Sermon- Right fit for SF. Backfield is jammed but pathway to starting job is not too challenging. Upper end of outcomes could have Sermon as top 15 back. 62. M. Gaskin- Has little competition for carries after Fins bypassed drafting RBs. 63. C. Cupp- Should be a central cog in Rams refurbished offense. 64. R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid. No passing game role. Fournette & Bernard form a nice real backfield, but a problematic on in fantasy football 65. OBJ- May present sneaky value here. Mayfield has improved. 66. Chark- The likely WR1 on a Trevor Lawrence led passing attack. 67. J. Jeudy- A devastating route runner who cannot throw himself the ball. 68. D. Prescott- On a scintillating pace before devastating injury. 69. Cooks- Should be in mostly pass heavy scripts all year long. 70. M. Andrews- Will not return to 2019 efficiency, but 2021 portends better than 2020. 71. T. Higgins- The Bengals will surprise people this year. 72. Hockenson- The best pass catcher on an otherwise underwhelming offense. 73. JuJu- Took less to return to Pittsburgh. Likely a pass volume reduction. 74. Hurts- Rushing upside hides marginal passing chops. One-year tryout. 75. J. Robinson- Still will have some sort of role and can play. 76. D. Smith- The Heisman winner is worth a dart throw as he is easily the best WR in Philly. 77. L. Fournette- He may move up, and RoJo down, when all is said and done. Useage unclear. 78. G. Edwards- Role known and established. Has the 40% share of committee role. 79. M. Davis- The presumptive starter for now. Wore down last year. 80. C. Sutton- Rodgers to the Mile High City would be a boon. 81. J. Herbert- Should be even better year #2. 82. Z. Moss- Has the talent and build to be the early down banger on an excellent team. 83. AJ Dillon- Should see increased workload. Impressed in single spot start. 84. M. Carter- Has as good a chance as anyone to lead NYJ backfield in touches, especially as a pass catcher. 85. K. Drake- Will have a role in LV, but not sure where and how he fits there. 86. D. Samuel- Versatile playmaker will need maximum efficiency. 87. T. Brady- The GOAT in real football is a back end QB1 in fake football. 88. D. Goeddert- Worth a speculation play at this point in a draft. 89. J. Wilson- Upside gamble on having a sizable role in elite ground game. 90. M. Stafford- Perhaps we will see how talented Stafford is now. 91. C. Samuel- A swiss army knife that will be fun to watch. 92. D. Johnson- Volume dependent starter on bad team. 93. J. Connor- Will he get a 40% touch share in AZ backfield? 94. J. Burrow- The line still scares me, but playmakers abound. 95. C. Davis- Steps into the WR1 role with rookie QB. 96. D. Parker- Reasonably safe floor, could remain the WR 1 in Miami. 97. T. Higbee- Flashed 2 years ago, has big opportunity with Everett’s departure and upgraded QB play. 98. N. Fant- QB play will tell the story. Has a top 5 skill set. 99. A. Rodgers- Will he play? This is based upon if a draft was right now. I’d gamble here. 100. M. Pittman- Presumes Wentz is right, but that team is good and Pittman is a legitimate WR1 prospect.
  9. I'll be targeting him in every draft. Gordon will depress his value enough so that he'll pay massive dividends in '22 and beyond. He'll be the lead back on a loaded team (with a new QB) one year from now.
  10. Which is why everyone should do their own rankings without looking at consensus until you feel really strongly about your board. We are so easily influenced by groupthink that we can take advantage of the minute to minute changes.
  11. Stevenson to the Patriots only further muddles a backfield lacking clear direction. As I have shares of Michel and Harris, disappointed in this pick. Essentially, all three guys are torpedoed to late round flyer status.
  12. Don't think he's as good as either Freeman or CEH but has virtually nothing in front of him. Based on landing spot alone, compounded by the underwhelming tandem of Perine and Coleman, gives him immediate fantasy value. He'll sneak into the back end of round #1 of rookie drafts. I think he will be a decent pro, especially in ppr formats, but doesn't have the chops for a three down role...that's not an insult, most RB don't have that skill set. He was exciting to watch in college and think he'll have some splash plays.
  13. I didn't see this mentioned, an I may have missed it, but AJ Brown has zero competition for targets. His volume looks to be insane, and he's already elite.
  14. I think he's better than both Mostert and Wilson, but that backfield will remain a logjam. If Sermon gets the touches, he's an ideal fit and has a top 12 ceiling. Unfortunately, this looks like a three headed monster. Sermon is an ideal developmental prospect because he may not see a significant role in '21, but depending upon the contract status of Wilson and Mostert for '22, has significant upside.
  15. Updated after Day #1 of the NFL draft: James Robinson vanishes. Harris, Etienne, and Pitts now have NFL homes. 2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase IX 1. McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per game scoring numbers remain a cut above all other RBs. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format. 2. Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload on a team that prefers defaults towards a run first philosophy. 3. Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Likely, based on historical norms, primed for one or two more big years before steep drop. 4. Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Dak returns and the line is likely to be both bolstered in terms of draft capital and more healthy. 5. D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats. Unlikely to surpass last year’s astounding numbers but the clear WR1. So long as Rodgers remains in GB, an elite option. 6. A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Optimally efficient. Now that his long-term place in GB is secure, no reason why he’s not an easy first round pick. May see more passing game volume with Williams’ move to the Motor City. 7. J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring. The Rivers to Wentz transition does not change my valuation. Mack & Hines may siphon enough touches to prevent an ascendance to the top 3. 8. T. Kelce- Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings. 9. T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB. 10. Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. The latest reports anticipate a full week #1 return. 11. Kamara- While still a stud, has to be moved back from original rankings. Brees is gone and neither Winston, and especially Hill, give me enough pause to slide to the back of round #1. 12. N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense. 13. DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success. The texture of the Seahawks offensive to close last season puts a slight bend in the arc of Metcalf’s ceiling. 14. D. Hopkins- Has rounded into form more quickly than anticipated. Outlier- as he changed teams, traditionally a red flag, but remained elite. An add like Jaylen Waddle in the draft only serves to help. AJ Green is playing on fumes. 15. Mixon- Burrow returns & line upgraded. Surrounding cast strong. Will return to RB1 status. Bernard’s departure only helps. Adding Chase is a net positive. 16. A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension. Will, and should be higher in ppr formats. 17. S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory. The entire Bills starting offense returns, as does Brian Daboll. 18. J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard. I think he’s really, really good but has been just a tad overrated thus far. 19. AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. The departures of Smith and Davis portend more targets. 20. Thomas- Going from Brees to Hill/Winston is a clear downgrade. Still a back end WR1. 21. K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert. 22. Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. The VBD value over multiple seasons makes for a worthy second round choice. Concerns about the offensive line need to be addressed. 23. C. Ridley- The potential Ridley, Julio, Pitts triumvirate has massive upside as a collective. All three will eat this year, with Ridley likely to be the most statistically dominant. 24. C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be. Stafford’s addition helps. The small sample and RB volatility give me pause but Akers was dynamic to close the season. 25. M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Workload a bit muddled given all the changes in Philadelphia. A full year of Hurts and the Smith add bolster the group as a whole. 26. Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. The QB situation must be monitored. Even with Aiyuk and Deebo, still the likely #1 target in the Niner’s passing attack. If Lance gets starts early, perhaps Kittle’s numbers drop a bit. 27. Najee Harris- Primed for a huge workload. The Steelers do not want to be pass heavy. Harris is the back they have been looking for and will excel right out of the gate. 28. A. Gibson- Feel like I’ve been too low on Gibson. He has a 3 down skill set and the surrounding competition doesn’t create any trepidation on my part. 29. A. Cooper- Dak is back and the offense looks well positioned for a top 3 finish. I’d be elated to have him as my round 3 choice. 30. J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high. 31. D. Swift- Three down talent but questions about the poor surrounding cast and workload. Most certainly a better dynasty than redraft option. Williams will eat into passing game role and poach more than an insignificant number of carries. 32. A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats. 33. McLaurin- Fitz coming to the WFT is a bump. Won’t be the gunslinger he was in Tampa, taking fewer chances due to a potentially elite defense. Still, McLaurin is a riser. 34. C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays. Short term 35. Dobbins- Still will be very productive despite likely lead role in a committee. Edwards will return and play an important role, but Dobbins is still likely to lead this tandem. Upside capped, in part, by Jackson’s rushing and goal line prowess. Ultimately feel he will be drafted at his ceiling, so I’m unlikely to have many shares this season. 36. D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle/end of round 3 feels right to me. Cohen returns to passing game role. D. Williams will also vulture touches, too. 37. T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive. The philosophical shift away from heavy pass volume back to a more run based approach is cause for concern as Metcalf is the alpha. 38. CEH- Underwhelming as a rookie. Looks to be in some form of timeshare for the foreseeable future. Need to replenish the offensive line. 39. Jacobs- The Drake signing moves him down from #17 to #39. No longer a backend RB1, more like a backend RB2. Oakland’s approach to personnel remains questionable to me. There is a scenario that has folks overvaluing Drake and perhaps could make Jacobs a value. 40. L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act. 41. A. Robinson- Deserves the chance to play with elite level QB but a great WR2, even with the Red Rifle under center. 42. Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double-digit TDs. Hard to argue against. Will likely never ascend to the career arc we all hoped for, but nonetheless as solid as they come as a WR2. 43. D. Waller- Target hog and elite athlete with great connection to Carr. Will be bumped up in ppr leagues. This ranking is based on standard scoring. 44. D. Johnson- Huge target volume. With Roethlisberger back for one more year, short term bump. His game fits hand in glove with Ben’s diminished arm strength and declining mobility. 45. T. Etienne- Reunited with Lawrence. Likely starts in a timeshare with Robinson but will have value. Lacks the workload of Harris but clearly a top 25 RB. 46. M. Gordon- Projected workload, buoyed by Lindsay’s departure, and the likely improvement of the Denver defense, makes Gordon a sneaky upside play. His career productivity is underrated. 47. R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside. Stafford will elevate his value. 48. Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options. 49. Godwin- I think the slightly down 2020 season sets up a nice value- based buy low, perhaps 85 cents or so on the dollar. Brady will be back and finger fully healed. 50. K. Golladay- Signing with the NYG is a net neutral from re-upping with the Lions. We know Golladay can produce, the better question is: Can Jones grow into a legitimate fantasy QB or is he waiver wire fodder? 51. DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. Darnold should help a little 52. Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce. 53. CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cowboys flush with high end options. 54. R. Wilson- Second half was pedestrian. Will Seattle return to ground and pound? Coaching hires and departures suggest yes. Nonetheless, hard to see Russ dropping out of the top 7 QBs. 55. K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer. 56. K. Pitts- Simply too much talent and too ideal a landing spot to keep out of the top 60, even if historical rookie TE production is lagging. 57. R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid. No passing game role. Fournette & Bernard form a nice real backfield, but a problematic on in fantasy football. 58. W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test. 59. C. Edmonds- With Drake’s departure and RB thirst, Edmonds becomes tantalizing option. Connor will take touches. 60. D. Harris- Played well and put up good numbers in starts last year. Looks to hold the primary, early down role on a likely run heavy team.
  16. As a 26 year player, my participation has, like my life. changed. As a squarely middle aged Dad, I play in one league that I've been in since the beginning- a ten team, standard scoring league that has essentially had the same core group of owners. We all started as 20somethings sans wives and kids. Now, we are all married (some for the second time) with kids. We gather in person for a long weekend for our auction, hang out, eat good meals and have a few drinks. In my earlier days, I played in as many as eight leagues of numerous formats and $ buy ins. VBD and projections, along with a fair amount of college football viewing was how I prepared. Now, I follow the flow of information, listen to a few podcasts and perhaps spend a few hours right before the auction putting together my big board. (Of course- this is primarily driven by outside sources that I trust.) My time and energy lies in other places now- but I still really enjoy the auction and the season. Honestly, the flow of information is so robust, you can get every analytic piece you desire in short order. You used to have to grind it out, listen to preseason games on the radio and follow team reports super closely to gain any type of advantage. Of course actual winning comes down to how you actionize what you learn but there is no shortage of sources. My bottom line has not really changed, I've probably won a bit more that I've lost over the years, but not in any significant way. My league tracks all time winning percentage, I'm at 58.4% over 25 years, which is the best overall, with the worst player at just over 41%. The 17% differential between top and bottom, over a 25 year period, is not huge. At the end of the day, it's about having fun, getting together with longtime friends for a weekend, and having bragging rights now.
  17. The more I dig in to both Swift and Dobbins, the more I think they will be overdrafted; not that both aren't high quality players and assets, but that both are being drafted close to their respective ceilings. As much as we would like both to be workhorse backs (and both have the skillset to do so), both look to be in some type of committee where the complimentary back (Williams and Edwards) both stand to have a defined, tangible role. Thus, hitting a high enough total to justify a high draft position will be difficult because the touches to ascend to elite status are unlikely to be there.
  18. Final Pre-draft ratings. For those new to this thread- the rankings are based on standard scoring, using a keeper format so RBs tend to trump the other positions. 2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase VIII 1. McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per game scoring numbers remain a cut above all other RBs. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format. The change from Bridgewater to Darnold does not change CMC’s valuation in any significant way. 2. Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload on a team that prefers defaults towards a run first philosophy. 3. Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Likely, based on historical norms, primed for one or two more big years before steep drop. 4. Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Dak returns and the line is likely to be both bolstered in terms of draft capital and more healthy. 5. D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats. Unlikely to surpass last year’s astounding numbers but the clear WR1. 6. A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Optimally efficient. Now that his long-term place in GB is secure, no reason why he’s not an easy first round pick. May see more passing game volume with Williams’ move to the Motor City. 7. J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring. The Rivers to Wentz transition does not change my valuation. Mack & Hines may siphon enough touches to prevent an ascendance to the top 3. 8. T. Kelce- Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings. 9. T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB. 10. Kamara- While still a stud, has to be moved back from original rankings with Brees’s retirement. If Hill is the starting QB next year, some concern is merited. With the unknown status of the Saint’s QB situation, I’m dropping him back a few slots. He remains in my top 10 but well below consensus. 11. Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens. This current spot is simply a placeholder. 12. N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense. 13. DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success. The texture of the Seahawks offensive to close last season puts a slight bend in the arc of Metcalf’s ceiling. 14. D. Hopkins- Has rounded into form more quickly than anticipated. Outlier- as he changed teams, traditionally a red flag, but remained elite. An add like Jaylen Waddle in the draft only serves to help. AJ Green is playing on fumes. 15. Mixon- Burrow returns & line upgraded. Surrounding cast strong. Will return to RB1 status. Bernard’s departure only helps. An offensive lineman or Pitts high in round 1 only helps Mixon’s value. 16. A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension. Will, and should be higher in ppr formats. 17. S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory. The entire Bills starting offense returns, as does Brian Daboll. 18. J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard. I think he’s really, really good but has been just a tad overrated thus far. 19. AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. The departures of Smith and Davis portend more targets. 20. Thomas- Going from Brees to Hill/Winston is a clear downgrade. Still a back end WR1. 21. K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert. 22. Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. The VBD value over multiple seasons makes for a worthy second round choice. Concerns about the offensive line need to be addressed. 23. C. Ridley- Grew into a huge role last year. Likely becomes the 1A this year, even if Julio is back at full strength. 24. C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be. Stafford’s addition helps. The small sample and RB volatility give me pause but Akers was dynamic to close the season. 25. M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Workload a bit muddled given all the changes in Philadelphia. 26. Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. The QB situation must be monitored. Even with Aiyuk and Deebo, still the likely #1 target in the Niner’s passing attack. 27. Najee Harris- If he goes to Miami, Pittsburgh, or Atlanta, he’d move up. With Aaron Jones staying in Green Bay, that’s an extra starting RB gig that is open. Has a legitimate 3 down skill set and is my favorite back in this class. 28. A. Gibson- Feel like I’ve been too low on Gibson. He has a 3 down skill set and the surrounding competition doesn’t create any trepidation on my part. 29. A. Cooper- Dak is back and the offense looks well positioned for a top 3 finish. I’d be elated to have him as my round 3 choice. 30. J. Robinson- We will know how valued Robinson is by the draft. Any RB selected in the first two rounds puts a major dent in his value. Hyde is a net neutral addition. 31. J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high. 32. D. Swift- Three down talent but questions about the poor surrounding cast and workload. Most certainly a better dynasty than redraft option. Williams will eat into passing game role and poach more than an insignificant number of carries. 33. A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats. 34. McLaurin- Fitz coming to the WFT is a bump. Won’t be the gunslinger he was in Tampa, taking fewer chances due to a potentially elite defense. Still, McLaurin is a riser. 35. C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays. Short term 36. Dobbins- Still will be very productive despite likely lead role in a committee. Edwards will return and play an important role, but Dobbins is still likely to lead this tandem. Upside capped, in part, by Jackson’s rushing and goal line prowess. Ultimately feel he will be drafted at his ceiling, so I’m unlikely to have many shares this season. 37. D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle/end of round 3 feels right to me. Cohen returns to passing game role. D. Williams will also vulture touches, too. 38. T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive. The philosophical shift away from heavy pass volume back to a more run based approach is cause for concern as Metcalf is the alpha. 39. CEH- Underwhelming as a rookie. Looks to be in some form of timeshare for the foreseeable future. Need to replenish the offensive line. 40. Jacobs- The Drake signing moves him down from #17 to #39. No longer a backend RB1, more like a backend RB2. Oakland’s approach to personnel remains questionable to me. There is a scenario that has folks overvaluing Drake and perhaps could make Jacobs a value. 41. L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act. 42. A. Robinson- Deserves the chance to play with elite level QB but a great WR2, even with the Red Rifle under center. 43. Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double-digit TDs. Hard to argue against. Will likely never ascend to the career arc we all hoped for, but nonetheless as solid as they come as a WR2. 44. D. Waller- Target hog and elite athlete with great connection to Carr. Will be bumped up in ppr leagues. This ranking is based on standard scoring. 45. D. Johnson- Huge target volume. With Roethlisberger back for one more year, short term bump. His game fits hand in glove with Ben’s diminished arm strength and declining mobility. 46. T. Etienne- Miami, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh will likely each have an open RB spot. This ranking is based upon landing in one of those situations in either round 1 or 2 of the draft. He’s a good, but not great, prospect, a player more scheme dependent than other top level RB prospects. I personally do not see him developing into a 3 down back, but should be productive enough to be a reliable RB2 type. 47. M. Gordon- Projected workload, buoyed by Lindsay’s departure, and the likely improvement of the Denver defense, makes Gordon a sneaky upside play. His career productivity is underrated. 48. R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside. Stafford will elevate his value. 49. Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options. 50. Godwin- I think the slightly down 2020 season sets up a nice value- based buy low, perhaps 85 cents or so on the dollar. Brady will be back and finger fully healed. 51. K. Golladay- Signing with the NYG is a net neutral from re-upping with the Lions. We know Golladay can produce, the better question is: Can Jones grow into a legitimate fantasy QB or is he waiver wire fodder? 52. DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. Darnold should help a little 53. Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce. 54. CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cowboys flush with high end options. 55. R. Wilson- Second half was pedestrian. Will Seattle return to ground and pound? Coaching hires and departures suggest yes. Nonetheless, hard to see Russ dropping out of the top 7 QBs. 56. K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer. 57. R. Mostert- If health returns and large carry share re-emerges, could go higher. Whomever leads the SF backfield has huge upside. The draft will tell us a lot about how the staff views Mostert, Wilson, etc… 58. R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid. No passing game role. Fournette & Bernard form a nice real backfield, but a problematic on in fantasy football. 59. W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test. 60. C. Edmonds- With Drake’s departure and RB thirst, Edmonds becomes tantalizing option. Connor will take touches.
  19. Thanks for the feedback. Love the conversation. How far back does Cook go for you? Is he a top 10? top 15 player? I think Golladay will score double digit TDs, thus he is ranked accordingly- he's lower in ppr formats. I haven't unpacked the rookie WR just yet. I'm going to wait until after the draft. My initial thoughts are (as this set of rankings is non-ppr, that perhaps Chase makes it in, but I'm not sure about Smith or Waddle right now. Where do you have Gibson and Sanders?
  20. Thank for responding. I would like to think he is in line for more opportunities, but Williams does catch the ball well. I worry about the Lions playing primarily in negative game scripts- consistently behind and needing to throw disproportionately- but Swift can take a chunk of that role. The issue remains Williams and how many targets/touches he will ultimately siphon.
  21. How much impact do you place on Campbell's hiring and the Jamaal Williams signing for Swift's value? I'm considering moving Swift down because the other components of the Lions organization- trading for Goff, having the league's worst WR corps, and a team that looks to win 5 games as a drain. Also, Campbell didn't draft Swift so there's not the same level of investment.
  22. How much further down would you move Zeke and Mixon? Would you take Jefferson and Brown above them?
  23. Agreed and the draft is almost a month away. What about an injury? You can't leverage all of those assets this far out- you only make this deal if you have three QB options that you are 100% comfortable taking.
  24. Where would you rank them? Genuinely curious. Thanks.
×
  • Create New...