Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

pghrob

Members
  • Posts

    2,749
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by pghrob

  1. Well, if you are thinking of taking Jones over Green, and you have a high pick (1st or 2nd overall) see if you can dangle it to an owner who might want Ingram or Green and try to bank some additional picks.
  2. You can't beat that at Cas Walker'sDamn, that guy must have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night or something.
  3. I hear ya and give some credence to situation as being a factor in success, but don't lose sight of the fact that Cincy passed on the King's Ransom offer from Atlanta for the 4th pick and then let Carson, TO, and Ocho go, choosing instead to go with the youth movement in Green and Dalton. They will feed Green, loading him with as many targets as he can handle. His pedigree is such he won't have too many drops. Gradkowski is more than capable of getting him the ball. All this leads me as seeing Cincy as having the better situation for bringing about a new WR1.You know, when I think of savvy front offices and organizations that are making the right move at just the right time...I think Bengals... Lmao.....gotta love those bungles....er um Bengals.Eta that Mike Brown could do a lot to dispel bad reputation by getting something in a trade for Carson Palmer.
  4. I hear ya and give some credence to situation as being a factor in success, but don't lose sight of the fact that Cincy passed on the King's Ransom offer from Atlanta for the 4th pick and then let Carson, TO, and Ocho go, choosing instead to go with the youth movement in Green and Dalton. They will feed Green, loading him with as many targets as he can handle. His pedigree is such he won't have too many drops. Gradkowski is more than capable of getting him the ball. All this leads me as seeing Cincy as having the better situation for bringing about a new WR1.Was Atlanta going to take Green? Cinci could have restocked their team thru the draft with 5 extra picks and hunkered down and took a WR? I saw this movie once in Detroit and it didn't play out too well until Calvin arrived.Yes, reports are that the Falcon and Bengals held discussions for the Falcons to move up to #4 and select Green.http://www.cincyjungle.com/2011/4/28/2140956/2011-nfl-draft-bengals-felt-falcons-trade-offer-was-undervalue
  5. I hear ya and give some credence to situation as being a factor in success, but don't lose sight of the fact that Cincy passed on the King's Ransom offer from Atlanta for the 4th pick and then let Carson, TO, and Ocho go, choosing instead to go with the youth movement in Green and Dalton. They will feed Green, loading him with as many targets as he can handle. His pedigree is such he won't have too many drops. Gradkowski is more than capable of getting him the ball. All this leads me as seeing Cincy as having the better situation for bringing about a new WR1.
  6. http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2011/08/01/eye-catching-tweets-from-nfl-camps-82/
  7. People seem to bring this up a lot around here, certain WRs not having the "bulk" to play in the NFL. Is there anything to back this up? Many WRs have done just fine without having to bulk up. It seems to me it's not about bulk, it's about technique. Is there evidence to suggest that WRs need to "bulk up?"Wasn't Randy Moss 6'4" 210 lbs while terrorizing db's over his illustrious career?Look at #5 on this list Green is 6'4", 211 lbs.Exactly.....I am not worried about his frame/build at all.
  8. People seem to bring this up a lot around here, certain WRs not having the "bulk" to play in the NFL. Is there anything to back this up? Many WRs have done just fine without having to bulk up. It seems to me it's not about bulk, it's about technique. Is there evidence to suggest that WRs need to "bulk up?"Wasn't Randy Moss 6'4" 210 lbs while terrorizing db's over his illustrious career?Look at #5 on this list
  9. This is not my argument at all. Go back and read my original post. I'm saying that things being relatively equal, the guy in the better situation should get an edge. The question is really then, whether or not Green's talent is significantly better than Jones' talent. I don't know that the gap is big, or even there at all.I disagree that Jones is in a better situation to put up fantasy numbers.That's great. Why?Jones has to fight with one of the best wr's in the game for targets. AJ Green has to fight with...nobody significant.From a real life point of view, it's better to have multiple threats to defend against. For fantasy purposes, I'll take the guy who is the lone weapon and is force fed the football. Green has to fight double coverage and Jones doesn't Shipley, Simpson, and Gresham should be able to draw safeties and other nickel/dime backs so as to free Green up from continual double coverage.
  10. I get a kick out of people who characterize Dalton as having a noodle arm. He comps well to Drew Brees when he came out of Purdue in 2001.
  11. Chris has AJ Green ranked below Julio Jones based on situation. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/37892/69/dynasty-rookie-ranks?pg=2 I know the Bengals have been weak in the front office and are essentially a mess right now with the Palmer issue, but historically they have had decent production at wr. Chad 85 had some rather monster seasons from 2003 to 2007. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/JohnCh01-2.php. When Calvin Johnson came out, there was nothing in Detroit to indicate he was going to an offensive juggernaut...yet things seem to be turning out okay for him. How many people are avoiding Green and going with Julio instead because they perceive the Bengals situation to detract from Green's development and performance? Dalton is no Ryan but he should be able to feed the ball to Green just as other lesser qbs have been able to count on top flight wrs. Look at the monster years that Delhomme delivered for guys like Mush and SS. I think people who pass on Green due to situation are passing on a real gem of a wr.
  12. I like what you're trying to do but why do you have such a specific formula when the majority of your input is subjective? Also, it seems like you might be adjusting the formula and your inputs to meet a predetermined view of what the output should look like. It seems like it would be better to come up with your weights and inputs first and accept whatever outputs you get until next year. At that point, look back and make adjustments to your formula, if needed (unless you did this last year, then just make adjustments to the formula from last year and apply it to your inputs this year). Trying to match the outputs to a predetermined subjective ranking doesn't seem very helpful. Something like what he is doing here might be useful as a rating tool to be administered by numerous raters. So while subjective, if it is precise and accurate, it might end up being a decent tool. But then it will only be as good as the people who use it.
  13. Wow. Looking at that list I would say your system is flawed. I know he had a bad year compared to last year but I have a hrad time seeing Chris Johnson out of the top 5.This system might do better if he made the rushing and receiving metrics the average of the player's last three years. Or maybe better yet, the average per game for each from the total games played over the last three years. That would seem better than just going over the 2010 production.
  14. There is no case to be made. I think the Steelers have been throwing the ball more than they would like to, even still. I think that if the offensive line allowed Mendenhall to eat up more clock, he would be asked to do so. Big Ben is getting by off of one top 3 finish and I don't count on that happening year in, year out. The distance between Big Ben and the elite is big. The distance between Big Ben and the lower end QB1s, is exaggerated. I don't think Big Ben is any more likely to finish top 5, any given season, than the likes of Matt Schaub. I agree with this. In my dynasty rankings I have my #2QB Rivers 14 points higher than my #5QB Big Ben, and Big Ben only 9 points higher that my #16QB Josh Freeman.Not sure what Ben needs to do to gain respect. Since week 6 of this year he is 4th in fantasy points scored for passing behind Brady, Vick, and Rodgers...trailing Rodgers by less than a point.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec Talk about twisting stats. Why start at week 6? Most QB's had their bye in those weeks, and Ben had his in week 5. Big Ben in the 10th ranked QB since week 5, and since week 6 he is the 14th ranked QB in PPG.Bad technique on my part. I was just trying to compare his passing performance straight up with all others since his return. I see the folly in that since it is foolish to discount the other qbs performances leading to that point while also penalizing those who may have missed games since week 6.
  15. There is no case to be made. I think the Steelers have been throwing the ball more than they would like to, even still. I think that if the offensive line allowed Mendenhall to eat up more clock, he would be asked to do so. Big Ben is getting by off of one top 3 finish and I don't count on that happening year in, year out. The distance between Big Ben and the elite is big. The distance between Big Ben and the lower end QB1s, is exaggerated. I don't think Big Ben is any more likely to finish top 5, any given season, than the likes of Matt Schaub. I agree with this. In my dynasty rankings I have my #2QB Rivers 14 points higher than my #5QB Big Ben, and Big Ben only 9 points higher that my #16QB Josh Freeman.Not sure what Ben needs to do to gain respect. Since week 6 of this year he is 4th in fantasy points scored for passing behind Brady, Vick, and Rodgers...trailing Rodgers by less than a point.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec
  16. The Mendenhall owner was looking to trade him because he does not like having Steelers. I know that is a recipe for losing but it is his team. Anyway, last Sunday night , week 7, he sends me an offer of Mendenhall for Knowhon. He called me and told me he sent the offer online but that he is unsure and is thinking of withdrawing it. I tell him I like it but I can't accept as trades are frozen until Tuesday but would as soon as I could. He ended up withdrawing it. He ended up rolling him up in a trade as follows: Mendenhall and Eddie Royal for Shonn Greene and Jordan Shipley and the guys first rd. Pick in 2012. The Mendy guy called me before finalizing that trade to tell me what he was close to getting and give me a shot at getting him. He had indicatedd that he would want Knowshon and his own 2011 first rd. Pick back that he traded me earlier this year for Dwayne Bowe. I passed on the chance. FWIW Shonn Green was traded during this years rookie draft for the 5th overall pick that ended up being Dez Bryant. 12 team ppr league.
  17. I do not think Moreno had a "very good rookie season." When you're outplayed by Correll Buckhalter, you have a ways to go IMO.NAME TM RSY TD RCY TD FPTK Moreno DEN 947 7 213 2 170 C Buckhalt DEN 642 1 240 0 94 P Hillis DEN 54 1 19 0 13 L Jordan DEN 86 0 0 0 9If Buckhalter blew away Moreno...the stat line doesn't show it. Maybe he had more yds/carry?
  18. I After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him. His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on. Great thread and lots of good points. So Moreno, despite being himself a former 1st round pick and then being drafted as a fantasy 1st rounder and then putting up 1200/9 td's in his rookie year - you guys are recommending sell? Hate to be the numb skull but what are you who say "sell" seeing? So far, the plan looks to be working: [*]Broncos drafted high. [*]A fantasy team drafted high [*]Moreno broke out as a rookie Was all of this a fluke and he is headed for the crapper? Some are recommending sell while value is still there because they are saying that he doesn't have the goods. So was that the same thing people said about Cedric Benson after his Bears experience or about Mendenhall right before he broke out? Looking at how the Moreno plan is playing out, what is it the Moreno is lacking that compels people to want to dump him while his "first round" value remains high? And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks. @Mister CIA See? So freebagel: if you are selling Moreno, what in terms of players or picks are you thinking is an upgrade? Of course much would depend on the makeup of your team...but it sounds like you are down on Moreno. A recoupment for him would be _________________.
  19. If it wasn't a top 3 pick, then I would not do it unless the other player was a top prospect.OK - It was the 1.03 & Hines Ward....My thinking was that hopefully in a PPR FORMAT Ward could put up similar #'s to Wayne the next 2 years (a dropoff, but hopefully not substantial) and I needed a young RB (or Bryant, by some miracle if he fell there) to pair with Stewart & Benson (we start 3).I had noticed the same thing as Anthony had regarding the second half of the year (Garcon basically had the same # of targets) with Wayne and there are a LOT of mouths to feed there. I was "happy" with the trade because I thought it helped my team but I think the other guy was happy also (It is a competitive league & there aren't these slamdunk type trades I see posted here). The 1.01 was out of the question (he wouldn't even consider it) & the 1.02 wanted Wayne AND player(s), picks....Just one league but I was trying to show where his value was there right now.Deriving fair market value can be tricky, and is sometimes unique to each individual league. My 12 team dynasty PPR league is in its second year, and there were trades taking place during the rookie draft ( 4 rounds) that sort of began to define the market place. The trades were showing crazy valuations indicative of a very free market.On draft day, Shonn Greene was traded for the 2010 1.05 pick and then 1.05 pick then was used to pick up Dez Bryant. Then Dez Bryant was traded for a 2011 1st and 2nd rounder.Ben Roethlisberger was traded for the 1.07 pick and 3.02 pick in the 2010 draft.Robert Meachum was traded for the 2010 2.10 and 3.03 rookie draft picks.The 2.04 2010 rookie draft pick was traded for a 2011 2nd and 3rd round rookie pick, only to be spent on Legarette Blounte.Days ater the draft trades continued: Dwayne Bowe was traded for a 1st round pick in the 2011 rookie draft and Colt McCoy.Colt McCoy was then traded for a 1st round pick in the 2011 rookie draft.Sam Bradford was traded for Chaz Schilens and Kevin Smith.My league's market place is all over the map. Clearly, value is subjective and with two willing participants, there is no telling what kind of trades can be made.I will never understand trading Dez for just a future first and second, where the best you could hope for is...Dez...and that is IF the pick turns out to be high. People are really overvaluing those future firsts...and I am one who likes to have them.I hear ya on Dez Bryant. To be honest, we were shocked he fell to 1.05. I think that is why the guy who drafted him traded Shonn Greene to move up to get him - as there was agreement that Bryant is a VERY SPECIAL talent. But the guy who moved up to get him already had Fitzgerald, B. Marshall, H. Nicks, J. Maclin. He then grabbed A. Benn with his own 1st. Clearly, he embraced the opportunity of being able to get Dez Bryant for Shonn Greene, but I also think he sold low for an as yet to be determined 1st and 2nd rounder next year. Especially since our league is PPR. He likely could have gotten more in player trades - but he also tends to put a premium on future high draft picks. But that is what the point of my reply was...Human Action creates free markets that show a great deal of subjectivity.Based on that trade of Dez Bryant for a 2011 1st and 2nd, a market price was sort of set...which led to the Bowe trade later on where Bowe went for a 2011 1st and Colt McCoy.
  20. If it wasn't a top 3 pick, then I would not do it unless the other player was a top prospect.OK - It was the 1.03 & Hines Ward....My thinking was that hopefully in a PPR FORMAT Ward could put up similar #'s to Wayne the next 2 years (a dropoff, but hopefully not substantial) and I needed a young RB (or Bryant, by some miracle if he fell there) to pair with Stewart & Benson (we start 3).I had noticed the same thing as Anthony had regarding the second half of the year (Garcon basically had the same # of targets) with Wayne and there are a LOT of mouths to feed there. I was "happy" with the trade because I thought it helped my team but I think the other guy was happy also (It is a competitive league & there aren't these slamdunk type trades I see posted here). The 1.01 was out of the question (he wouldn't even consider it) & the 1.02 wanted Wayne AND player(s), picks....Just one league but I was trying to show where his value was there right now.Deriving fair market value can be tricky, and is sometimes unique to each individual league. My 12 team dynasty PPR league is in its second year, and there were trades taking place during the rookie draft ( 4 rounds) that sort of began to define the market place. The trades were showing crazy valuations indicative of a very free market.On draft day, Shonn Greene was traded for the 2010 1.05 pick and then 1.05 pick then was used to pick up Dez Bryant. Then Dez Bryant was traded for a 2011 1st and 2nd rounder.Ben Roethlisberger was traded for the 1.07 pick and 3.02 pick in the 2010 draft.Robert Meachum was traded for the 2010 2.10 and 3.03 rookie draft picks.The 2.04 2010 rookie draft pick was traded for a 2011 2nd and 3rd round rookie pick, only to be spent on Legarette Blounte.Days ater the draft trades continued: Dwayne Bowe was traded for a 1st round pick in the 2011 rookie draft and Colt McCoy.Colt McCoy was then traded for a 1st round pick in the 2011 rookie draft.Sam Bradford was traded for Chaz Schilens and Kevin Smith.My league's market place is all over the map. Clearly, value is subjective and with two willing participants, there is no telling what kind of trades can be made.
×
  • Create New...