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Everything posted by bengalbuck

  1. I'd be surprised but not necessarily shocked. I was higher on him at this time last year (and drafted him in a couple leagues). However, I was expecting he would be good enough his soph year (even with Barkley handling a big load) to force his way into getting more than 3 touches per game. I may be misremembering but I also think I heard during fall camp he was even having trouble separating from the pack to be the #2 from some guys I've never really heard of. Stats kind of point to that as well with him only getting ~60% of the backup RB carries in 2017. So not really anything I've seen that I don't like but my hesitation towards ranking him higher is -- if Sanders is a future star and big-time NFL prospect, why didn't the PSU coaches find a way to get him more than 64 touches total in 2 seasons? Even if it meant getting creative and playing him with Barkley or lining him up in the slot for end arounds or whatever. For example, UGA got D'Andre Swift 98 touches despite Chubb/Michel ahead of him because he was too good not to use.
  2. This one finished up recently. Rounds 4 and 5 are the annual two-round devy draft (bunch of guys already owned from previous years): http://www65.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=40761&O=17 4.01…* Brown, AJ FA WR 4.02…* Montgomery, David FA RB 4.03…* Taylor, Jonathan FA RB 4.04…* Harmon, Kelvin FA WR 4.05…* White, Zamir FA RB 4.06…* Carr, Stephen FA RB 4.07…* Etienne, Travis FA RB 4.08…* Anderson, Rodney FA RB 4.09…* Dillon, AJ FA RB 4.10…* Shorter, Justin FA WR 4.11…* Love, Bryce FA RB 4.12…* Juedy, Jerry FA WR 4.13…* Lamb, CeeDee FA WR 5.01…* St. Brown, Amon-Ra FA WR 5.02…* Sanders, Miles FA RB 5.03…* Fant, Noah FA TE 5.04…* Sermon, Trey FA RB 5.05…* Eagles, Brennan FA WR 5.06…* Hill, Justice FA RB 5.07…* Johnson, Anthony FA WR 5.08…* Snell Jr, Benny FA RB 5.09…* Teague, Master FA RB 5.10…* Smith, Jaylen FA WR 5.11…* Singletary, Devin FA RB 5.12…* Tagovailoa, Tua FA QB
  3. 2018 Devy Top 100 is up: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-devy-top-100-college-prospects Hit me up with any questions and always looking for constructive feedback. It felt harder than normal to rank the 2nd-tier 2019 guys, especially at wide receiver, this year.
  4. Fair point, I do think the loss of Witten might hurt because who knows what the young backups will be able to do. Though I also think you can argue that (1) Dez hasn't been good the last two years, so Hurns probably isn't a downgrade except in name value and (2) Dak's ability as a runner and the option on most plays for him to pull the ball out and take off himself if the defense crashes down too hard helps partially take away one of the run defenders. Having that dual threat QB usually helps the RB have better running lanes.
  5. I agree that Barkley has more PPR upside than Elliott because he can actually split out and run routes like a wide receiver. Over the last two seasons, 4 different running backs (including 2 rookies) had a season with 80+ catches (Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey) and it isn't far-fetched to think we see Barkley have that type of impact as a receiver with 70+ catches. When you have that type of receiving production, it becomes possible to have these ridiculous 25-27 PPG seasons like we've seen from DJ, Bell and Gurley. Zeke was on pace for 40-45 receptions last season and that's probably a fair projection moving forward. He's been in the 20-22 PPG range in PPR scoring in his career despite averaging just 1 catch per game as a rookie and running behind a less than 100% line most of 2017. There's certainly upside for him to get more in the 22-24 PPG range. But it's hard to see him ever putting together a 411 point season like DJ did in 2016 because Elliott's not going to be an 80-catch guy, whereas Barkley might be. I don't think there's much of an argument that Zeke's floor is higher though. He has proven his game translates well to the NFL. He will be behind a loaded offensive line moving forward and will probably have the same QB the next decade. You feel pretty good locking him in for 20+ PPG over the medium-term. As safe a projection as Barkley seems, you never know. Maybe he's the 25+ PPG guy or maybe he's only 16 PPG. I think the balance of risk/reward slightly favors Zeke but I can definitely understand the argument for Barkley in PPR format.
  6. I'm still around but at some point lost the password for the login under my real name and thus went back to posting on my old account from my days prior to joining the staff. I am doing the Devy Top 100 article again this year and targeting Monday, May 8th to have it up on the site.
  7. These general conversations are always tough because each league has it's own twist. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, so I see a pretty big gap between him and Chubb/Guice, because I'm not bullish on those guys as pass catchers and I think Barkley catches 60 a year. If we're talking non-PPR, it's not as big of a gap. And like you guys are saying, the more teams and/or the more weekly starters, the more value you place on quantity vs. quality.
  8. I think people are going to want something on top of DJ to move the 1.01. There's more than a 5-year age difference.
  9. 1. 1st day is lighter than expected on WR and RB. 2. Big OL run in the last dozen picks of the first round with way more Centers and Guards than usual sneaking into the 1st. 3. The top 4 QBs are off the board in the top 6 after trades (along with Chubb and Saquon). 4. Minkah Fitzpatrick slides towards the mid-first.
  10. Not involved but saw this one in a 14-team PPR. 1.01 for 1.02 and 2019 1st (probably top 5, though I didn't deep dive into rosters)
  11. A lot of these names have already been mentioned. Some late-round startup picks or trade throw-in guys I like: Austin Ekeler, Corey Clement, Corey Grant, James White, Tyler Lockett, Albert Wilson, Chad Williams, Ryan Switzer, Chester Rogers, Nick Vannett, Stephen Anderson, Ricky Seals-Jones.
  12. I'm with @menobrown on this. Wouldn't trade a future 1st for 2.05 before it was on the clock. Would absolutely consider making that kind of trade if I had a loaded team (late 1st the next year) and loved one of the players still on the board. Paying a premium for a current year pick isn't something dynasty or real NFL teams should make a habit of doing. But nothing wrong with being aggressive to get a player you covet if the opportunity presents. From an NFL perspective, Saints did it last year moving their 2018 2nd for a 2017 3rd that they used to select Alvin Kamara.
  13. Please re-read my post. I'm not sure how to make it clearer. Nobody is arguing this point. People, myself included, are saying that the 2.05 in this trade isn't worth that much less than a future 1st (only if the 1st is guaranteed to be late), which has zero to do with Hill or Garcon. Garcon/Hill is basically equal to Richardson. Garcon side probably worth a little more. Then it comes down to 2.05 vs. future 1st, which is what this discussion is about...
  14. I think all he's saying is it's fine to give up a future late-1st straight up for a current year mid-2nd if you have a loaded team and player you really like who you're targeting. Especially if you believe that the 2018 rookie class is deeper than the 2019 one will be. Which in the context of this trade would mean Garcon/Hill=Richardson and 2.05=2019 late 1st.
  15. I'm surprised on the Landry vs. Baldwin opinions like this one. Personally, it would take Baldwin plus late 1st/very early 2nd for me to move Landry. Landry was the WR4 last season in PPR (with Cutler at QB, so hard to view Taylor/Darnold as much of a step back). Baldwin was WR14 (even with Russ throwing for 34 TDs). Plus, Landry is more than 4 years younger (Baldwin turns 30 in September). So even if you do like Baldwin a little bit more than Landry in 2018, that's still a lot of prime years you're missing out on.
  16. Yeah, that's a nice haul. Having a hard time moving for value in the one league I'm shopping him.
  17. It's definitely a trade you could end up winning, especially with DJ in a new offense and AZ lacking talent. With a good rookie year, Barkley's probably the 1.01 in startups this time next year. Just slightly surprised that's how much it cost.
  18. You point to Bell (it took a year and a half I'd say) but it is worth remembering that Gio Bernard, Montee Ball, and Christine Michael were also 2nd round picks that year. Nobody built offenses around those guys. Unless you have a crystal ball, it's tough to predict whether a 2nd round RB is going to be so good that an offense will be built around him. You don't need a crystal ball when it comes to running backs taken in the top-5 overall because the team is telling you with their actions in making that pick that they are going to build the offense around said running back. That's my main point here. You feel safer knowing that Barkley is going to have an offense built around him (assuming he goes top 5 or 6) than you do in guessing which (if any) of the other rookie backs are going to be good enough to be in the same spot. If one of the other backs quickly proves that he is an elite talent and deserves a huge workload, then I have no problem ranking him similarly to Barkley at that time (like Kamara is now rated alongside Fournette). But I don't think you can do so knowing what we know now.
  19. I'm a big Barkley fan/believer but I do think some of the hype is going too far. I saw the following trade in one of my leagues this week: David Johnson, Stefon Diggs, 2.05 for 1.01, 2.01 I can see the case for already valuing Barkley the same as DJ or even slightly ahead (big age difference). But a Stefon Diggs sized gap?
  20. I agree to some extent with this point. If one of the other running backs ends up showing elite skills early in their career, the team will eventually change the offense to be built around them. David Johnson is a prime example of a RB being way better than the team expected (remember AZ wanted Ameer Abdullah and were pissed they had to settle for DJ) and almost forcing his way into a massive role. Where I disagree though is that the chances that an offense gets completely built around one of those guys is much lower because of the investment required for a team to take Barkley. As with Fournette last year and Zeke the year before, if you are a team taking a running back in the top-5, it is because you believe both in his talent and in the team building philosophy of investing in your OL and making sure your lead back gets 20-25 touches a game. No team will use a super premium pick on Barkley without being dead set on him seeing a ton of touches. If you believe that Barkley is going to go top-5, then you can feel extremely confident he is going to be a centerpiece of the offense and won't be part of a committee. If a guy like Penny or Michel go in the 2nd or 3rd round, it could be to a team that philosophically believes in using multiple backs and spreading the touches around. Or to a team that already has a very good back but wants to add depth. You just don't know what the team's plan is because the cost isn't so high that they have to be committed to a ton of touches to get their money's worth.
  21. Gotcha. Seems like QB-trade value is way different depending upon the league, so impossible for me to really answer your original question. Watson is going in the 50s overall in 1-QB dynasty startups so should theoretically only cost a WR2 type in trade, but sounds like he might cost more in your league
  22. To me the play in recent years has been (and still is) to take advantage of how much rookie QBs have been devalued in rookie drafts over trying to trade for one that has already had success. Last year's top 3 rookie QBs were usually available late 2nd or 3rd round in rookie drafts. I think it'll be similar with this rookie class and it'll be easier to target one or two of Darnold, Allen, Jackson, Rosen, Mayfield vs. paying a heavy price for Mahomes/Watson.
  23. Yeah, 8-10 range seems about right to me. It's possible Miami could draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, but they have so many other needs. And FA just bringing Gore was about the best possible realistic outcome.
  24. Agree on it being fair. Deeper rosters, I'd take the 5 players/picks over the 2. But in FFPC, always pays to consolidate.
  25. FWIW, here are some actual draft results in a TE Premium (super flex) startup pre-FA: 3.05…Kelce, Travis KCC TE 4.07…Ertz, Zach PHI TE 4.08…Engram, Evan NYG TE 4.09…Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 6.05…Howard, O.J. TBB TE 6.06…Henry, Hunter LAC TE 7.02…Njoku, David CLE TE 8.06…Graham, Jimmy GBP TE 8.09…Olsen, Greg CAR TE 9.10…Kittle, George SFO TE 9.12…Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 11.06…Doyle, Jack IND TE 12.04…Smith, Jonnu TEN TE 12.07…Eifert, Tyler CIN TE 12.08…Seferian-Jenkins, Austin JAC TE 12.11…Reed, Jordan WAS TE 12.12…Ebron, Eric IND TE 13.08…Hooper, Austin ATL TE 13.10…Walker, Delanie TEN TE 13.11…Shaheen, Adam CHI TE 14.11…Everett, Gerald LAR TE 15.02…Burton, Trey CHI TE 15.10…Brate, Cameron TBB TE 15.12…Clay, Charles BUF TE 16.08…Butt, Jake DEN TE 17.09…Kroft, Tyler CIN TE 18.03…Seals-Jones, Ricky ARI TE 18.11…Higbee, Tyler LAR TE 19.05…Swoope, Erik IND TE From what I've seen in this draft and others, there's a clear gap from the top 7 to that next tier. Kittle's right near the top of the that tier behind the top-7 in each draft I've seen.
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