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  1. Agree with Tick. It's not the end-all-be-all of data, but I thought it was perhaps what Man with No Name was looking for. For me it's most useful in rookie drafts when we are well past the big names in the mid-to-late rounds of deep leagues. I think the numbers are definitely common sense, but it helps me sometimes to just have it hit me in the face that no, I shouldn't be looking at 6th round LBs like my league mates tend to draft when there are some out of favor 2nd or 3rd round DE or S prospect available (or more specifically, choosing between an offense and IDP player in the mid-section of the draft). This data has never been a deciding factor for me, but it helps me to keep perspective. Nothing more
  2. Don't know if this is what you had in mind as more useful, but I ran across this last year and the poster updated it in 2021 with better data. Similar but different perspective Article: https://supersmashpros.football/2021/04/18/idp-rookies-a-look-at-draft-capital-and-hit-rate/ Tweets: https://twitter.com/djkelltown/status/1383955671280881672 edit: just for clarity, that's number of "hits" within 3 years of being drafted
  3. I tend to agree with Mac's board, though with deeper rosters in my league I am looking into late S fliers. I don't have Moehrig nearly as high as you as I expect deep/FS for him. I have some late interest in Washington, Johnson, Ford, etc but am no where as high as you are on them. Care to share any thoughts on how you have them ranked? I think I'd want the S-to-LB conversion or overhang prospects before most of them
  4. I don't have any dog in this fight, but am considering Wallace with a late pick in rookie draft. I believe there are elements of truth in what both sides are saying here. Ravens have not been a high volume passing attack, but Frankman has point that the 2021 WRs drafted do seem to be more skilled at middle-of-the-field routes and contested catches than either Hollywood or Boykin could hope to be. I won't share anything behind the paywall, but a quick ReceptionPerception blurb here https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1388544314758754305 Now... do I have any clue how Andrews, Bateman, and Wallace all eat in the center short-to-intermediate portion of the field? No. But at least now the Ravens have multiple options rather than the defense entirely keying on Andrews in the middle of the field. Hollywood and Bateman seem to be able to go deep and all of Andrews, Bateman, Wallace would seem to be able to be intermediate middle of the field types. That's not proof the offense will pass more, but at a late enough round, I'm willing to buy to find out if simply having more variety of which receiver runs to where on the field makes defenses less able to key on the portions of the Raven's passing game they do run edit: apologies, looks like Frankman posted the exact same link earlier
  5. They changed the scale last year. They went back to older drafts and refactored the scores to match the new scale. I've collected some of them but not enough to be able to translate them 1:1 for you, though it's probably doable
  6. Whatever it's worth, I've felt the same about this draft overall and these 2nd-3rd round picks (and scarily all the names discussed since the quoted post) as both rockaction and MAC_32. Here's to consensus. My feeling is there is more volatility around these 2nd-3rd round offensive players due to landing spot than I've felt in recent drafts. Rather than a "I suspect talented enough to hit" it's more of a "scheme dependent upside" which is certainly always in play but for whatever reason I feel that risk more than usual this year, especially vs 2020. I've got a few nagging concerns on some of the EDGE/DE and LB Collins vs where Bloom has them, but they're mostly minor and again can be answered by landing spot. Overall though, I'm pretty in line with Bloom's view. Agree 100% on Williams
  7. I think everything FreeBaGeL said is excellent, and just want to acknowledge I was too lazy in my writing above. Obviously there are plenty of RBs who do deserve that 2nd contract and their expected fantasy lifespan should be significantly longer than the 4 years 1-contract rookie. I've been sending offers for a few of them hoping to find someone wanting to discount that longer lifespan. I think the simplistic question of value of a 23 year old rookie RB is better expressed in my head as first bucketing their talent as potential for 1- or multi-contract starter and then worrying about age, opportunity, etc. eg: I don't believe Najee's age should be the first determining factor in a valuation, but I think we've already agreed on that. Thanks for the nice examples, FreeBaGeL
  8. Mostly lurk around here, but this is where I come down on RB age. I think you essentially have a window of the rookie contract for your RB. If they are elite, you get a second contract as the "main guy" in a backfield. I haven't pulled the data as I'm lazy, but I suspect this is largely the factor in the difference between the expected cliffs at age 26 or 28. Averages are great, until you're including both elite 2-contract starters and good 1-contract starters before heading off to cheap RBBC land where the contract doesn't match what you'd expect from the prior production. But as I said, just a hunch. My first league to draft includes a devy spot, so Harris isn't even available, but I think he looks like a fine player and would expect him to be in the mix to start for his rookie contract. I haven't seen enough to think he'd be a multi-contract starter. Just my $0.02
  9. inyoutees

    Green Dot

    I don't disagree with you, but I haven't seen that info in Athletic articles. Maybe you've seen it elsewhere? I currently see: and No doubt it's an unclear situation
  10. IDP has been update all summer on player projections, which can be set to your linked league scoring system. https://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myviewprojections.php I thought League Dominator was primarily in-season content. Online draft dominator has the IDP projections as well. I've had zero problems and have used extensively this summer
  11. I don't have any inside info here, but beat writers over at The Athletic have made comments that: Kamal Martin looks like the 2nd LB in GB to own (Mac mentioned in another thread) Marcus Maye looks to be the NYJ S taking Jamal Adams responsibilities Drue Tranquill looks like a 3-down WILL in LAC with Murray working solely at MIKE with Perryman. Not sure how much I put on any of those, but have picked up some cheap in a few places
  12. Hey Joe, I like and have used those team projections. They seem great. Few thoughts: 1) I always have to search and search for them until I remember to just click on the team name. Duh, but also seems something you want to address. 2) I don't know if this is feasible, but there are some situations I'd like to see the totals. Total yards, total plays, etc, for the team rather than by position or total passing yards 3) Most useful for me would be a way to separate the IDP projections similar to the offense. They're ranked in order of tackles, which is fine, but it is easier to see all the, say, DE or CB lumped together. Thanks for all the good work
  13. I've occasionally had some luck looking at MFL ADP and sorting by "earliest pick." Picks in 60+ roster size 11 IDP leagues are a lot different than picks in a 25 roster size league start 2 IDP sort of scenario, and I think that pulls down the average ADP for IDP players. Much like the Gally comment above. Whatever it's worth, Simmons, Queen, Murray all went round 1 for my league, with Young 2.1
  14. Jokes aside, I'm honestly curious what the outcome here will be. PFF has Winston's poor production overwhelmingly on deep passes/routes, despite the stereotype I had of him being a deep gunslinger
  15. I have the following articles saved for some time distant in the future when I have the opportunity to sit down an try to replicate some stuff in excel, which is how it turns from "something interesting I read" to "something I feel I understand." So with that caveat that I've only read and not sure I intuitively "get" yet, I thought these were interesting on WR production. https://twitrsports.com/2019/09/14/predicting-wr-production-with-generalized-linear-models-part-1-breakouts/ https://twitrsports.com/2019/10/29/predicting-wr-production-with-generalized-linear-models-part-2-breakouts-but-later/ Part 1 is probably better for understanding their process (with a weird hook of "oh I never thought of that"), part 2 with the updated model that seems to fit common sense much more closely. Not sure helpful for you, but FYI edit: still not an indicator for "repeating" but another person's look at the factors that matter.
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