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Concept Coop

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Everything posted by Concept Coop

  1. Filled. Thanks.
  2. I'm pretty sure we're league-mates. I was actually surprised the rookie picks lasted as long as they did - I was happy to land the 2nd and 3rd overall rookie picks at 3.10 and 4.03. Surrounding picks in order, for reference: CEH > 1.02 > Aiyuk > Waller > Jacobs > Mixon > 1.03 > Murray > Sanders. (The 1.01 went between DJ Moore and Chris Godwin.)
  3. I don't think he's worth a 3rd in general, but especially not in this class. WR is just as deep as last year, QB and TE are deeper. There are going to be guys available in the 3rd who would be 2nd round picks most years.
  4. Sure. I’m not arguing that he’s injury prone, relative to his position. I’m pivoting away from 26 YO RBs in general - and he’s not an exception for me. I don’t anticipate him being any less susceptible to injury, and I don’t think I’ll be missing out on a league-winning season from him, especially outside of GB. I’m lower than most on Kamara and Cook as well. But I see an extra half season or two from them, based on talent, and a higher PPG during that span.
  5. You could be right. Best case for the Packers - he signs at the week 1 deadline, after missing all of camp. He has too much financial incentive not to play what cards he has.
  6. What do you mean? Maybe I missed something, but players don’t have to sign the tender. Jones will do what he can, short of missing a year of service. If they franchise him and refuse to trade him to a team who will sign him, his season will look a lot like Melvin Gordon’s last season in SD. IMO.
  7. They have a lot of needs and a lot money tied up in their top guys. (I don’t know how many of those guys are cut or restructure candidates, however.) On top of that, signing Jones to a big deal is an obviously bad move, IMO. I don’t see SEA making that kind of mistake. I see them reuniting with Mike Davis (or signing someone like him), drafting a RB in the second or third, and/or re-signing Carson. I could be wrong, of course. But I’d be surprised.
  8. I could see Miami. Buffalo would be solid, but his TD rate would take a sizable hit. I’d be shocked if SEA signed him.
  9. What are the odds he suits up, if they do? Not great, IMO.
  10. Where is he likely to go? I expect a bad FO to sign him. He’s 26 and has missed games in 3 of his 4 seasons. I think he’s more likely to have zero top 10 seasons left than 2+, personally. I could be wrong, of course. Just not a profile I typically look to invest in.
  11. Dillon is going rounds after Aaron Jones - and that feels wrong to me. I prefer the former. What are your thoughts?
  12. Hard to say without the rest of your league specs. If PPR, start 2x RB, 3x WR, 1x Flex - top 10ish, for me.
  13. I agree with you in principle, and do prefer the 1.01, but am pretty low on this RB class, relative to consensus. Outside of Harris, who probably would have been my RB3 or 4 in last year's class, I don't see a prospect I like more than I liked Jacobs. I don't see another back with an obviously higher ceiling.
  14. I agree. I’d take Pitts over Fant and Hockenson. If the current versions of Hockenson and Fant are what I miss out on if I swing and miss on Pitts, I can live with that. I like the other two, so I understand the counter argument. But I do see a higher fantasy upside with Pitts.
  15. How do you rank these guys: Pitts, Waller, Hockenson, Fant?
  16. @ZWK Do you know what Amari Cooper would have to do to match Todd Gurley in career VBD in your model, roughly? Or how likely that is to happen? I know it's a tired debate, but I'm looking for examples of RB/WR combinations from the same class, who both hit, with the WR having - or projected to have - an extra 4+ years. Please feel free to change the names, if you have a better example. Maybe Hopkins/Bell? but Bell's holdout really cost his owners. I stumbled across your 2019 VBD sheet on Twitter and saw that McCaffrey's season was >50% more valuable than Michael Thomas' (who broke the record for rec), whose season was ~65% more valuable than the next WR (Godwin). And my intuition tells me these monster RB seasons are worth more than their raw VBD would indicate, that the more concentrated the VBD is, the more valuable it is. (I could be wrong though.) I think many will view the extra years that Cooper/Hopkins will provide over Gurley/Bell as a win, and model accordingly. I'm not sure we should. Maybe your generic rookie values already answer for this? This ending up being a lot more than I intended it to be. No problem at all if you don't get to it. TIA either way.
  17. Gibson, Sanders, Zeke, Jacobs, Ekeler, Jones, Mixon, Drake
  18. PFF is far from perfect, but it's the only game in town. I don't let it wholly override my opinion of a player, but it's a nice second opinion. In 2019 he was top 10 in juke rate, yards created/touch, YAC, YAR and forced missed tackles. #11 in breakaway rate and DVOA; #12 in DYAR. The comps for Jacobs, if we assume his production holds steady, going back 12 seasons or so, either had their options exercised or received extensions. Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, and Gio Bernard. Martin's option was declined, but he missed 15 of 32 games and averaged 3.7 YPC during his 2nd and 3rd seasons. (He was re-signed after bouncing back year 4.) Open it up to 2nd and 3rd round picks and guys like Duke Johnson, Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Jerick McKinnon, Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, and even Toby Gerhart all got extensions, were tagged, or signed significant FA deals to start elsewhere. I strongly disagree that Jacobs needs to do anything more than he's done over his first 2 seasons to see a 5th year. Certainly nothing more than he did in 2019, (Looking at the list of RB draftees gave me a stomach ache. So. Many. Busts.)
  19. He had an elite PFF grade and was top 10 in a bunch of the metrics we typically care about - on high volume, in a below average offense, behind a below average offensive line - and looked good doing it. I don't see obvious value in the 80/4.5 exercise. If there is any, we'd need to compare him to the rest of the league to extract it. I think the Raiders love him. But if they do opt against the 5th year, there's a solid enough chance his fantasy value survives. He'll have just turned 25.
  20. I'm buying at that price. He's still really young, the same age as Harris and Etienne. And I still like the talent. The efficiency that wasn't there this season was there the prior. He's capable of it. If he gets back to that, he greatly outperforms this kind of investment. If he doesn't, the volume alone should repay it, if he stays healthy. I'd be really excited about landing him for that.
  21. Mahomes Murray, Allen, Watson, Jackson Herbert, Dak Lawrence Wilson, Burrow *Edit: Lance Fields, Hurts, Rodgers, Z. Wilson Tua, Tannehill, Baker
  22. How much more would Watson get if he was an UFA today? Another 5-10% maybe? How much more would Lawrence get if he was an UFA today? Probably triple (200% increase). This feels like an easy call to me. Take the value.
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