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Everything posted by miqws

  1. Rookie consensus update 8/3/2021 (average and SD where minimum and maximum are excluded) Player PosRnk count Avg SD 1 Najee Harris RB08 21 17.84 4.55 2 Ja'Marr Chase WR10 21 24.89 8.18 3 Travis Etienne RB17 21 36.47 8.42 4 Kyle Pitts TE04 21 41.00 14.12 5 Jav. Williams RB19 21 46.84 8.75 6 Devonta Smith WR23 21 53.21 10.00 7 Jaylen Waddle WR27 21 58.11 11.92 8 Trey Sermon RB24 21 71.95 11.70 9 Rashod Bateman WR35 21 76.00 13.19 10 Trevor Lawrence QB09 21 80.47 13.77 11 Elijah Moore WR38 21 81.32 13.96 12 Michael Carter RB27 21 85.32 12.89 13 Rondale Moore WR45 21 96.42 25.53 14 Ter. Marshall WR46 21 97.00 25.86 15 Trey Lance QB12 21 106.68 21.84 16 Justin Fields QB13 21 111.53 19.74 17 Kadarius Toney WR57 21 127.58 24.70 18 Zach Wilson QB19 21 137.79 18.82 19 A-R St. Brown WR61 21 144.37 21.00 20 Kenny Gainwell RB47 20 152.42 31.55 21 Chuba Hubbard RB48 21 152.63 19.16 22 Amari Rodgers WR64 21 162.84 33.72 23 Dyami Brown WR66 18 163.53 40.67 24 Pat Freiermuth TE20 21 172.95 26.66 25 D' Eskridge WR70 20 173.79 32.25 26 Mac Jones QB26 16 176.84 37.02 27 Nico Collins WR73 19 179.84 35.27 28 R. Stevenson RB53 20 181.50 16.67 29 Josh Palmer WR77 17 185.94 32.91 30 Tylan Wallace WR85 14 206.89 28.31 31 Tutu Atwell WR86 12 206.95 35.10 32 Javian Hawkins RB61 12 209.59 27.35 33 Kylin Hill RB67 10 216.82 26.07 34 A. Schwartz WR88 12 219.42 30.19 35 Elijah Mitchell RB68 13 219.61 20.73 36 L. Rountree III RB75 9 228.12 19.20 37 Jer. Jefferson RB76 8 229.41 18.88 38 Chris Evans RB77 11 229.65 14.64 39 J. Darden 8 231.53 20.55 40 K. Herbert 7 241.00 17.52
  2. Rd 21: Akins, Pringle, Lutz, (skipped), E. Mitchell, Doyle, D. Robinson, T. Bass, Kelley, Ollison, Eskridge, Vaughn, A. Miller Rd 22: Doaks, C. Evans, K. Ballage, Cobb, Brissett, (skipped), Collins, DeSean Jackson, Heinicke, Graham, M. Callaway QB: Jackson, Brady RB: Mixon, Gibson, Dillon, L. Murray, Mattison, Darrel Williams, Booker WR: Evans, J. Chase, Claypool, M. Brown, Hardman, T. Smith, Tyrell Williams, Cobb TE: Andrews, Thomas, Higbee, Arnold K: Bass Comments and suggestions welcomed! Here are my thoughts. QB: Lamar and TB12. I hope that MCL surgery went well for TB12, nice bit of news after the draft! Basically living and dying with these two. Panic QB research: who is Brady's backup (Gabbert), best available QBs not drafted (Mariota, Mond, Trubisky). Meh. RB: Mixon heading this crew is a risk, Gibson's foot concerns me as well. Hopefully one of the RB handcuffs hits. My favorite value is Mattison - ADP drop relative to last year yet actually a better handcuff situation with Boone gone. WR: My weakest position, if I can play RB in the flex, I will. The stacking either fixes the weakness or I go down in flames. Mecole and Tre'Quan have some upside, and Tyrell / Cobb are garbage time volume bets. I will not lose sleep sending any of them to the waiver wire if needed. TE: Functional. I did not have a good opportunity to pick a top four TE as I committed to two QB up front. All gone by my round three pick. Andrews a nice consolation prize in round 5 to stack with Lamar. K: Kickers will be good floor plays in this format. I need something reliable in weeks 8-9. Having kickers available means plenty of floor players readily available. so get rid of low ceiling players.
  3. According to the SFB11 app, the slowest division is Bob Marley at 14.05 in the Main Event. My division is round 21 so on the slower side but overall it has moved along steadily. The commissioners work very hard to make sure that the draft starts off with active owners. Overall it is a great experience. Rd 19: Malcolm Brown, Koo, Lazard, Knox, Uzomah, Tucker, Hawkins, Booker, V. Jefferson, Ty Johnson, Blankenship, Butker Rd 20: O.J. Howard, Justin Jackson, McKinnon, Collins, Arnold, B. Scott, Amari Rodgers, Gallman, Herndon, Hurst, S. Perine, Ahmed QB: Jackson, Brady RB: Mixon, Gibson, Dillon, L. Murray, Mattison, Darrel Williams, Booker WR: Evans, J. Chase, Claypool, M. Brown, Hardman, T. Smith, Tyrell Williams TE: Andrews, Thomas, Higbee, Arnold
  4. Rd 17: G. Bernard, S. Shepard, B. Edwards, C. Hubbard, J. Sanders, A. Dalton, Ty. Williams, Alie-Cox, Gainwell, Schultz, S. Michel Rd 18: Mims, Perriman, D. Evans, Love, Darrel Willliams, Mack, T. Taylor, Coleman, E. Sanders, Penny, A. St.-Brown, Damien Williams Tyrell Williams, Jared Goff has to throw to somebody. Darrel is the KC handcuff and may get some volume. Kickers are starting to leak out. In this format, I think a kicker is a decent bye week fill in. Field goal volume is hard to predict. One could pick a high scoring game and pick one that way. This part of the draft in baseball terms, swing hard. Most likely, you strike out but if you hit something make sure it is worth it. QB: Jackson, Brady RB: Mixon, Gibson, Dillon, L. Murray, Mattison, Darrel Williams WR: Evans, J. Chase, Claypool, M. Brown, Hardman, T. Smith, Tyrell Williams TE: Andrews, Thomas, Higbee
  5. Rd 15: Reagor, Agholor, Singletary, Crowder, Mac Jones, Freiermuth, Zuerlein, Mattison, G. Davis, Ebron, L. Perine, Bridgewater Rd 16: J. Wilson, Slayton, Cohen, Watkins, T. Smith, A. Green, K. Toney, C. Kirk, R. Stevenson, Meyers, T. Marshall, J. White Really happy with getting Mattison, a target handcuff for me. Tre'Quan is a depth chart play and basically is a Michael Thomas handcuff. One can hope. Meanwhile the search for basura time (see harrisfootball.com for context) players begins now. QB: Jackson, Brady RB: Mixon, Gibson, Dillon, L. Murray, Mattison WR: Evans, J. Chase, Claypool, M. Brown, Hardman, T. Smith TE: Andrews, Thomas, Higbee
  6. Rd 13: Henderson, J. Cook, Ja. Williams, Firkser, Parker, McKissic, Gronkowski, L. Murray, Everett, G. Edwards, Ertz, H. Henry Rd 14: Lock, Hilton, Bateman, J. Brown, Hardman, E. Moore, Hooper, Campbell, Kmet, Jarwin, Hines, R. Moore Lots of TEs in Rd 13, glad I already had picked them over prior. I had my eye on both Henderson and Jamaal Williams so seeing them go was disappointing, but settled for Murray. NO may run more with Winston / Hill, some faith in Payton to create some decent offensive production. KC really did not do much at WR off season and I think they diversify a bit from Hill / Kelce. Campbell I like as well, if he can stay on the field. E. Moore is one of those players that may have much better production later in the year. At the end I went with the WR that has the better QB. QB: Jackson, Brady RB: Mixon, Gibson, Dillon, L. Murray WR: Evans, J. Chase, Claypool, M. Brown, Hardman TE: Andrews, Thomas, Higbee
  7. Rd 11: Landry, Fournette, T. Hill, Conner, A. Brown, Ruggs, R. Jones, Dillon, Winston, M. Williams, Drake, Pollard Rd 12: Engram, Beasley, Pittman, Mooney, Marq. Brown, Garoppollo, M. Jones, C. Newton, A. Trautman, C. Davis, R. Gage, Jonnu Smith I got Dillon mainly as a GB handcuff, hopefully OK to use in flex. I could not resist another stack with Marquise Brown. Weeks 8 and 9 look a bit brutal though. Sad to see Trautman go - like the potential. But I still need to shore up RB and WR. I am one of only three teams without a third QB. Chances are I do not draft another QB as I already fully committed to stacking. My team implodes if a QB gets hurt, calculated risk. QB: Jackson, Brady RB: Mixon, Gibson, Dillon WR: Evans, J. Chase, Claypool, M. Brown TE: Andrews, Thomas, Higbee
  8. Rd 9: Boyd, Wilson, Anderson, Goff, Chark, Waddle, Smith-Schuster, L. Thomas, Fuller, Cooks, Irv Smith Jr., Gesicki Rd 10: Mostert, Darnold, Moss, Gordon, Higbee, C. Samuel, Devonta Smith, D. Harris, Shenault, D. Samuel, Tonyan, Gallup I would have taken JuJu but got sniped. So I loaded up (a bit overkill) at TE with Thomas and Higbee. I need to pound RBs/WRs for a while. My team: QB: Jackson, Brady RB: Mixon, Gibson WR: Evans, J. Chase, Claypool TE: Andrews, Thomas, Higbee
  9. I will give this a crack, will of course be totally wrong on some. Rd 1: D. Adams - the chance that his QB is not Rodgers is not worth the risk at this price. WR is not a position I am willing to take a risk when there are so many good options Rd 2: A.Ekeler - 16 feels like a ceiling price to me. Rd 3: Kittle - love the player, but I do not think he gets the volume to justify the ranking. Also his all out playing style invites injury. Rd 4: Montgomery - I think his volume decreases. This is a ceiling price to me. Rd 5: Lockett - when he dinged up, he plays but is not productive at all. DK is ascending. 60 is pricey for me. Rd 6: Rodgers - very stubborn dude. High risk at this price. Rd 7: Chark - may be the WR 3 on the team, behind Shenault and Jones. Rd 8: Gordon - He may be on the bench at the back end of the year. Teams do not lie when they draft. Rd: 9: Jones - I think Bernard is on the field, a lot. Rd 10: Tonyan - he may not have Rodgers throwing to him. TD regression more probable than not.
  10. Rd 6: A. Robinson, Roethlisberger, McLaurin, Etienne, Evans, J. Williams, Woods, Cooper, Godwin, Davis, Hunt, Fields Rd 7: Kupp, D.J. Moore, Fitzpatrick, J. Jones, Lockett, Edmonds, Watson, Chase, Golladay, Thielen, Wentz, Diontae Johnson Rd 8: Daniel Jones, Beckham Jr., Higgins, Aiyuk, Claypool, Carter, Jeudy, Fant, Sermon, David Johnson, J. Robinson, Sutton My team: Jackson, Brady, Mixon, Gibson, Andrews, Evans, Chase, Claypool Evans to stack with Brady, so I have two viable stacks. No risk it, no biscuit. I went with Ja'Marr Chase and Claypool on upside potential. The WRs just looked good to me rounds 6-8. I have my core starters in place, so I can target any position for a while. At the back end of the draft, I am going to hammer RBs. Hard to predict, so throw a lot of darts and maybe hit on someone like James Robinson, Myles Gaskin, Mike Davis.
  11. Well that would change my strategy quite a bit if the QB scoring is the same - would hammer QBs even harder.
  12. SFB11 is not best ball. Set your lineup and watch mediocre QB play cost dearly. It is TE premium because the TE gets an extra 0.5 per reception and extra 0.5 per first down. SFB11 Rules
  13. Rd 5: Mayfield, Allan, Thomas, Lamb. Dobbins, Tagovailoa, Montgomery, Andrews, Goedart, Carr, Carson, Jacobs I do not play a whole lot of DFS other than free stuff but if Evan Silva says do a stack, then I am listening. Andrews was available at 5.08 so I pulled the trigger. My team: Jackson, Brady, Mixon, Gibson, Andrews
  14. Rd 4: Harris, Sanders, Ridley, Edwards-Helaire, Gibson, Cousins, Gaskins, Swift, Metcalf, Hockenson, Jefferson, Brown I still do not have a WR or TE. Hope Andrews falls to me at 5.05 for a stack. If not I am OK with waiting longer at TE.
  15. I think you have to read your league and trust your gut. The variance is unpredictable, if you are committed to the strategy then I think jumping in early is better than late. Really hard to know when is too early, part of the reason why I decided not to go with that strategy. Plus I think Houston is just a huge mess. But let's say Denver trades Lock + (a boatload) and gets Watson. Wow! Low probability, but you are playing with a bunch of sharks. How many sixth rounders can be league winners? I would stack with B. Cooks, the price is cheap enough to just do it.
  16. Watson's current SFB11 ADP is 60, that would be too rich for me. Going in the same area is Fitzpatrick or Roethlisberger which one could pivot to. I would definitely want to have a top five QB to attempt this - QB floor was very important last year. Last year I had Mahomes and got a low end QB2 (Garappolo) and then picked Herbert late. So if you pick Watson (or any other risky QB), I would also take a third QB stab (ex. Bridgewater/Lock, Mac Jones, Tyrod). Even with Brady and Lamar I may take a third QB, can start in bye weeks. One can do worse in late rounds.
  17. Rd 3: Hurts, Burrow, Ryan, Lance, Pitts, Ekeler, Jones, Mixon, Lawrence, Akers, Hopkins, Diggs Lots of WR still available. I am likely to pick another RB rather than stack Andrews at 4.05. Maybe he falls to round 5, but doubt it.
  18. Your link worked. The link I shared works for myself, but that is not very helpful.
  19. @Lehigh98Kyler and Dak, better start than me IMO (Jackson, Brady). My draft as follows: https://www73.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=62114&O=17 Rd 1: Mahomes, Allen, Murray, McCaffrey, Jackson, Kelce, Wilson, Prescott, Cook, Hill, Herbert, Waller Rd 2: Henry, Kamara, Elliott, Rodgers, Stafford, Barkley, Taylor, Brady, Tannehill, Kittle, Chubb, Adams My hope is that Lamar's running and Brady's efficiency provide solid floors with some ceiling, and I have a couple of stacking targets that are not too costly. I will be monitoring RBs, this could get a bit ugly if I do not get one in round 3. The WR pool and the relative value flatness says wait, wait, wait on WR so most drafters are doing just that. I agree with @Dez on boosting the WR value somehow.
  20. Went with QB at #5, Lamar Jackson. Thus far: Mahomes, Allen, Murray, McCaffrey, Jackson QBs tend to fly off the board, otherwise I would have gone for Kelce. Dak I thought about, but decided on Lamar since stacking was cheaper overall. Likely Pitts and Hockenson go before Andrews, so I can see how TE unfolds rather than commit up front. Next pick I will likely target value at RB or QB. The position runs are something to keep an eye on.
  21. My league has not started yet, so I will get an ADP snapshot at #5 via: https://rotogrinders.com/columns/scott-fish-bowl-11-app-3067367 Top players thus far (> 10 drafts): Mahomes, McCaffrey, Kelce, Allen, Murray, Cook, Prescott, Jackson
  22. SFB11 cheatsheet: https://twitter.com/beersheets/status/1411890388126900226?s=21
  23. https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2021/sfb11-draft-plan-with-fantasy-war https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/DerekBrown/26391/2021-scott-fish-bowl-11-draft-strategy And hopefully this is available for SFB11: https://rotogrinders.com/columns/scott-fish-bowl-x-app-3067367
  24. SFB11 mock ADP: https://twitter.com/johnboschff/status/1408805332915261442?s=21
  25. I am in SFB11. Recommended having a couple of QB strategies, figure out the TE premium, take a couple of home run swings, handcuff other teams RBs. The big home run I hit last year was drafting Herbert late. I was aggressive on the waiver line and that paid off for me versus "saving $$". I'd rather have something of value for a longer period of time. I pick at #5 this year and will most likely get a QB. Then I can pick value for while, I plan to build depth via WR so will likely target RB round 2 and dart throw TEs. No idea what to do with kicker yet. There were some tools available on "live" ADP, that was helpful last year when I had no clue. I need to go find it for tis year. The league I was in was on the late side so got a good snapshot and ideas on who to draft. I can blog here on the draft if that is worthwhile.
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