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Mr. Irrelevant

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  1. 9/7? Turbo draft! Sounds fun. I'm in.
  2. 11.14 - Darrell Henderson LAR RB53 [11] 12.03 - Kenneth Gainwell PHI RB54 [14] If we could embed pictures in our posts, this is where I'd drop the "Spider-Man pointing at himself" meme: two undersized, freakishly athletic, wildly productive Memphis RBs with role-player-plus skillsets, in offenses likely to be trending up, behind lead backs who have so far proven solid but not elite. Hopefully the Wonder Twins can give me something resembling top-30 scoring as a best-ball combo. 13.14 - Jason Sanders MIA PK11 [14] Above-average kicker with ironclad job security. Since I usually roll solo at PK the week 14 bye is a bummer, but more about that later. 14.03 - Parris Campbell IND WR77 [14] A ton of WRs have flown off the board since my Gainwell pick two rounds ago. In retrospect, I should've taken Mims or Elijah Moore with my 12th-rounder and RB here - for all I know I could've still had Gainwell. Regardless, Campbell should get plenty of snaps, the Colts' offense should be average at worst, and downfield prowess like his always plays in best-ball. 15.14 - Kadarius Toney NYG WR82 [6] He was my second choice two rounds ago and I'll need a WR6 at some point anyway so, well, here we are. I didn't love his profile or the offense / QB he finds himself with ... but NFL draft position is still the single best predictor of NFL production, so anyone who went top-20 is well worth a swing with a pick in the 200s IMO. 17.14 - Chuba Hubbard (R) CAR RB62 [13] The 1-PK build gives me one extra roster spot to play with. TE3 is usually my go-to but I gotta put some more lipstick on this RB stable of pigs. It's possible Hubbard doesn't see more than 10% of snaps all season, but we've seen what guys with a little talent can do with this offense and OL when C-Mac goes down, so who knows? 16.03 - Saints NO DST14 [6] 18.03 - Bengals CIN DST29 [10] DSTs don't score a ton in this format, but what scoring they do tends to be unpredictable and wildly variable. Statistically, this argues for taking two but not spending much draft capital on them. It's been my go-to approach for years - no need to switch up now. ******** Jalen Hurts PHI QB11 [14] Trevor Lawrence (R) JAX QB19 [7] Travis Etienne (R) JAX RB23 [7] Nyheim Hines IND RB43 [14] Darrell Henderson LAR RB53 [11] Kenneth Gainwell (R) PHI RB54 [14] Chuba Hubbard (R) CAR RB62 [13] DeAndre Hopkins AZ WR4 [12] Terry McLaurin WAS WR15 [9] Brandon Aiyuk SF WR32 [6] Antonio Brown TB WR44 [9] Parris Campbell IND WR77 [14] Kadarius Toney (R) NYG WR82 [6] George Kittle SF TE2 [6] Cole Kmet CHI TE22 [10] Jason Sanders MIA PK11 [14] Saints NO DST14 [6] Bengals CIN DST29 [10] Pros: WR is the highest-scoring position in the SLs, and I have one of the best groups of those - two probable fantasy WR1s, a WR2 with upside, a very reliable WR3, and two best-ball bonus tracks. So I've got that goin' for me, which is nice. TE should also be top-shelf with one bona fide stud and one up-and-comer. QB offers big-time rushing upside, which while not as important with 6-pt pass TDs can still add 3-5ppg on average. A lot of my picks' teams have a lot of 2020 touches up for grabs. My roster can beat your roster in a 16x40-yard dash relay. Cons: None that I can really see ... lol j/k where do I start? My QBs have four NFL starts between them, playing behind OLs that are either aging or just plain bad. I was one of only three teams to go 5-deep at RB, but I'm definitely the only one with 5 guys who may not even get a majority of their own team's snaps. All those touches I mentioned above are up for grabs in large part because the offenses in question were hot garbage in 2020. Finally, the abundance of Week 14 byes is going to pose a problem for me if I make it that far, however (a) the odds are good that I won't; and (b) by December everyone will be down major portions of their rosters anyway, so bye weeks will be relatively less important. That's the theory, at least. I may be hallucinating but didn't @BassNBrew recently snap his streak of never going out in Week 1? Maybe that leaves me with the longest active streak as I've done 30+ SL drafts without catching that bullet. If that streak is ever gonna end, you're looking at the team that will make it happen. Even if not, this looks like the sort of squad where a few young guys grow into their roles, become key fantasy contributors later in the season, and my team finishes top-5 in points scored for the year in an entirely wasted effort because I went out in Week 3 or whatever. Best of luck to the whole .
  3. 7.14 - Trevor Lawrence (R) JAX QB19 [7] At this point I've, like, sextupled up on "offenses that were bad last year and I guess I'm hoping won't be bad again this year." To be fair, if I thought the Jaguars' offense was still going to be bad despite going from the Minshew-Glennon Comedy Hour to the #1 overall draft pick, I wouldn't have drafted him here in the first place. Whatever else you can say, I'm clearly not in this thing to finish 4th. Also considered: D. Johnson. 8.03 - Antonio Brown TB WR44 [6] There's a bit of popular career advice that goes: don't focus on fixing your weaknesses, focus on making your strengths even stronger. I'm not sure it's meant to apply to best-ball drafts, but let's go with it ... my RB position is probably beyond fixing anyway. Stacking DeVonta with Hurts here was tempting, but AB has the far higher floor and a 90-catch ceiling to boot. Also considered: D. Smith, Harris, Drake. 9.14 - Nyheim Hines IND RB43 [14] Ran to the podium to hand in this card. I knew Hines has always been quietly productive, but no idea he was "RB18 in this format last year" productive - even if Wentz goes downfield more often than Rivers did, it'll be very hard for Hines not to return value at this draft spot. Also considered: none. 10.03 - Cole Kmet CHI TE22 [10] Agonized about whether I needed to grab a TE2 while there were still a couple of good options left or whether it'd just be a luxury pick ... but Kittle's only played one full season in 4, and at 2PPR, even a catch or two a game over replacement level can make a big difference when you're fighting to avoid the cellar any given week. Also considered: Trautman. Meh, I dunno about these guys. Loved my start, not all that confident in what I've done since.
  4. DFS in the 2014-15 time period was like sports betting today - once you learned some of the secrets you could net $100-200 a week in EV with low risk and minimal time commitment (mainly by filtering on guaranteed contests and selectively entering those with the greatest overlays a couple minutes before lock). My only regret at the time was not having the bankroll to take advantage of things like late-PM $267pp $1k GPPs that would go off with 2/4 seats filled. Once the sharks perfected their algos, the free overlays basically vanished, and with a higher rake, like you said, the whole thing turned into a grind. I knew enough to know I never had an edge in the game itself, so from then on I've never played for anything but beer money.
  5. 1.14 - George Kittle SF TE2 [6] No joke: When it got to my turn, I needed to double-check the MFL scoring settings to make sure Bass hadn't turned off 2PPR this year. He, Kelce and Waller should all have gone in the top half of the first round IMO. Also considered: Waller. 2.03 - DeAndre Hopkins AZ WR4 [12] At this point there were 12 RBs off the board vs. just 3 WRs. Now, I like Joe Mixon as much as the next guy, but in full-PPR no chance I'm ever drafting him over a future first-ballot HOFer in his prime. Nuk finished WR5 in his first year with a new system and QB so, as crazy as it sounds, there's still upside here. Also considered: Metcalf. 3.14 - Terry McLaurin WAS WR15 [9] A famous philosopher-poet once wrote, "Balance in rosters is good; getting the F1 as your WR2 in a 16-team league is better." Basho? Walt Whitman? One of those two, I think. Terry should be Wes Craven-level scary with DGAFitz under center this season. I would own him everywhere at this price. Also considered: none. 4.03 - Travis Etienne (R) JAX RB23 [7] My plan was to grab Murray on the way back to stack with Nuk; my second choice was deciding to just go full zero-RB by grabbing Godwin. Sadly, in both cases Old Mil was having none of it. It's best-ball, so we need ceiling, so give me the 1st-round rook with the explosive skillset. Given his built-in rapport with T-Law, could be an attractive PPR play even if he's sharing backfield snaps. Also considered: D.J. Moore, Lamb. 5.14 - Brandon Aiyuk SF WR32 [6] Once again cruelly sniped on a QB (Herbert) I really wanted here, leaving me with a dilemma: pass on the clear and obvious BPA at this spot, or double down on the aerial weapons of a run-first offense led by either a guy whose own coach trusted to throw only 9 times in a playoff game or a rookie with 10 career college starts? Ugh. Option B, I guess. Also considered: Jav. Williams. 6.03 - Jalen Hurts PHI QB11 [14] No thanks on him at his QB9 ADP in regular formats - I mean, there's a non-zero chance he's not even the Week 1 starter. But in best-ball, a guy with Konami cheat-code potential like Hurts has more than enough upside to outweigh the risk at this ADP. Also considered: Jav. Williams, Stafford.
  6. Hurts (6.03) Etienne (4.03) Hopkins (2.03), McLaurin (3.14), Aiyuk (5.14) Kittle (1.14) *** Because any time you have a chance to construct an entire fantasy lineup out of guys from bottom-half NFL offenses, you have to take it ... right?
  7. Chris Harris, Pat Mayo, and the Numberfire podcast are three for starters, but there's 10 or more out there I've played in before. Most of 'em are usually $5 or $10 a throw single-entries. Mayo's is $15 and a 3-max IIRC though so that's not one I'll do every week. You usually have to go to each week's show notes to grab the tournament link for that week, although Harris and maybe one or two others have standing DK "leagues" that let you pull up that week's contest from your app homepage.
  8. Quite a few popular FF / DFS podcast hosts offer links to rake-free GPPs in their show notes. I’ve always played DFS for entertainment rather than profit anyway - at least this way I don’t have to pay 15% off the top for the privilege.
  9. Took the words right out of my mouth, @BassNBrew. The NFL cares about what brings dollars first, eyeballs second, and everything else not at all. There was a time when season-long FF was the biggest driver of eyeballs and at least a secondary driver of $$$ to the NFL. That time ended 8 or 10 years ago. Since then it's been DFS >>> season-long. In a couple years it'll be sports betting >>> DFS >>> season-long (NJ alone is expected to generate $1B+ in betting handle per month this coming NFL season). When McKinsey or whomever put their impact assessment together for ol' Rog on adding a 17th game, I guarantee you "adverse impact on high-stakes season-long FF" didn't even rate one bullet point on one slide in the backup section of the deck. Sorry, @nittanylion, but it is what it is.
  10. 6.12 Aaron Rodgers GBP QB6 7.01 Justin Herbert LAC QB7 For better or worse, my 6-7 double-tap will go a long way toward determining my success in this draft. Even if they just marginally outperform their draft slots, I could well wind up with 600 points from the QB position, which will hide a lot of warts. With 25 rounds at play, it was tough to resist burning a late-rounder on a QB3, but the me who doubled up early made the week-later me swear not to give into the temptation, so here we are. 1.01 McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB1 5.01 Travis Etienne ROOK RB22 11.01 Duke Johnson HOU RB37 14.12 James Conner ARZ RB47 19.01 Gio Bernard TBB RB60 22.12 Marlon Mack IND RB65 I'd say "top-heavy" is a pretty apt description here. It wouldn't shock me to see ETN wind up the first back off the board, and regardless of landing spot he's got top-12 talent if he earns enough of a workload. Kinda surprised that Duke was still hanging around on the board this late ... his ceiling days are behind him, but whether or not Watson is under center this year, the Texans will likely be bad enough to require a lot of late-game passing, which should guarantee a floor. IMO I got lucky with Conner's landing spot - we've seen enough from Edmonds to know he's not built to be a 3-down back (neither is Conner for that matter, but hey - we've got a narrative to build here). And I imagine Tom Brady introducing Gio Bernard in camp with a speech like Nicholson in A Few Good Men: "Son, we live in an offense with swing passes, and those passes have to be caught by backs with hands. Who's gonna do it? (points to Jones) You? You, Lt. Fournette?" Might regret only going 6-deep, but the bottom 4 should give me a nice floor. 3.01 A.J. Brown TEN WR9 4.12 Robert Woods LAR WR19 8.12 Brandin Cooks HOU WR38 9.01 Laviska Shenault JAX WR39 12.12 Cole Beasley BUF WR55 15.01 Darnell Mooney CHI WR60 16.12 Denzel Mims NYJ WR69 21.01 Jakobi Meyers NEP WR78 25.01 Tylan Wallace ROOK WR93 Pretty much the polar opposite of my RB stable - a really solid floor at the top, and lots of depth and ceiling everywhere else. With Davis and Jonnu out of town, AJB ought to see increased targets, and I'm done doubting the Titans' supposedly unsustainable pass-game efficiency. Second-year speedsters are my favorite archetype in these draft formats - developmental upside plus best-ball cheat codes - and I think I got three promising ones in Shenault / Mooney / Mims (four, if you count Albert O.) Beasley is really the Frank Gore of WRs - disrespected by ADP every year yet somehow always finishing in the top 25-30 at his position. Wallace ought to be a Day 2 pick, and quite a few of those have popped as rookies of late, so here's hoping. Probably wind up pulling one or two weekly flex scores from this bunch pretty consistently. 2.12 George Kittle SFO TE3 10.12 Irv Smith MIN TE17 24.12 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN TE36 In my mind at least, my two biggest steals of the draft were my TE1 and 2. Kittle is as close to unstoppable across the middle of the field as anyone in the sport not named Travis Kelce. Cousins loves him some TEs on crossing routes and goal-line patterns and, while Smith had already been getting a decent share of those high-value looks, 1-2 more a week in the wake of Rudolph's departure can be the difference between a low-to-mid TE2 and a low-to-mid TE1. Already referenced AO last paragraph - hoping he bounces back quickly from his ACL. Should be near the top at the position with this trio. 13.01 Ravens DST BAL Def5 17.01 Saints DST NOS Def14 20.12 Giants DST NYG Def24 Even though DST scoring isn't as nuts as in last year's iteration, I knew I wanted at least one really good unit and at least 3 total - I'd have preferred 4, but played chicken a couple rounds too long to make that happen. The Saints in particular play a high-risk, high-reward style that suits this format perfectly. 18.12 Wil Lutz NOS PK10 23.01 Robbie Gould SFO PK16 Two kickers should be plenty when they're as good at their jobs as these two. ***** It's easy to like rosters this deep in 12-team leagues, I suppose, but I feel pretty good about this group. (I will say that drafting from the turn in 12-teamers is a hundred times easier than in the 16-man survivors.) I guess I feel relatively exposed to some top-end injury risk at QB / RB / TE, but you've gotta spend those high draft picks somewhere, and with the expanded flex potential loading up draft capital at one position didn't seem like a winning formula. Big props to @Stinkin Ref for keeping these rolling for another offseason. BOL to everyone.
  11. 6.12 Mr. Irrelevant Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 10:37:00 p.m. 7.01 Mr. Irrelevant Herbert, Justin LAC QB 10:37:10 p.m. This is either the most brilliant 6-7 turn in recent FBG draft history, or the dumbest. I have no idea which.
  12. right ... so instead of 2/1 the ratio is 1/0.75 = 1.33. Definitely clearer ways I could have phrased that ... this is probably why my wife is the math teacher instead of me.
  13. 1.01 McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB1 - Not much to say here - still the best all-around back in the game. 2.12 Kittle, George SFO TE3 - Being able to start up to 3 means the opportunity cost of drafting TE early is much lower than in our traditional survivor so, despite going from a 2x reception premium to 1.33x, the value impact is being overstated IMO. I'd have considered 24th overall good value for Kittle even with no TE premium at all. 3.01 Brown, A.J. TEN WR9 - The Titans are never gonna be a team that slings it 650 times a year ... so while AJB is as talented as any WR in the game, the only way he'd ever get the 150+ targets needed to make him a top-5 fantasy threat would be if, say, their #2 and #3 pass-catchers both flew the coop in the same offseason. Wait, what's that you say? 4.12 Woods, Robert LAR WR19 - It's way too early to be 100% confident about anything in this sport, but what the hell: I'm 100% confident Woods with Stafford will average more than the 10.4 YPR he put up last year with Captain Popgun under center. This seems like my second straight pick of "WR who definitely belongs in the tier above where I drafted him", but I'm not complaining. 5.01 Etienne, Travis ROOK RB22 - As is typical when you get into the 20s, there's no guarantee any of the remaining vet RBs will lead their team in touches (although watching how WSL played out it surprises me that I'm saying this now). Strongly considered a 3rd WR here, but since this isn't a survivor I'm not that concerned about the typical slow start from a highly-drafted rookie. ETN should get the majority of early-down work for whoever drafts him out of the chute, and his explosiveness and home-run ability ought to make him a pretty solid best-ball option. As @-OZ- says, I don't think there's a bad draft slot anywhere in a 12-teamer this year ... but I'm pretty happy about how things are playing out so far from 1.01.
  14. Hadn't checked back here the past couple days so I just saw @rzrback77’s note about being around early ... just kicked things off. @OldMilwaukee is OTC.
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