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Mr. Irrelevant

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Posts posted by Mr. Irrelevant

  1. 1.01 McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB1 - Not much to say here - still the best all-around back in the game.

    2.12 Kittle, George SFO TE3 - Being able to start up to 3 means the opportunity cost of drafting TE early is much lower than in our traditional survivor so, despite going from a 2x reception premium to 1.33x, the value impact is being overstated IMO. I'd have considered 24th overall good value for Kittle even with no TE premium at all. 

    3.01 Brown, A.J. TEN WR9 - The Titans are never gonna be a team that slings it 650 times a year ... so while AJB is as talented as any WR in the game, the only way he'd ever get the 150+ targets needed to make him a top-5 fantasy threat would be if, say, their #2 and #3 pass-catchers both flew the coop in the same offseason. Wait, what's that you say?

    4.12 Woods, Robert LAR WR19 - It's way too early to be 100% confident about anything in this sport, but what the hell: I'm 100% confident Woods with Stafford will average more than the 10.4 YPR he put up last year with Captain Popgun under center. This seems like my second straight pick of "WR who definitely belongs in the tier above where I drafted him", but I'm not complaining.

    5.01 Etienne, Travis ROOK RB22 - As is typical when you get into the 20s, there's no guarantee any of the remaining vet RBs will lead their team in touches (although watching how WSL played out it surprises me that I'm saying this now). Strongly considered a 3rd WR here, but since this isn't a survivor I'm not that concerned about the typical slow start from a highly-drafted rookie. ETN should get the majority of early-down work for whoever drafts him out of the chute, and his explosiveness and home-run ability ought to make him a pretty solid best-ball option.

    As @-OZ- says, I don't think there's a bad draft slot anywhere in a 12-teamer this year ... but I'm pretty happy about how things are playing out so far from 1.01.

    • Like 1
  2. On 3/5/2021 at 10:36 AM, -OZ- said:

    Mahomes, Ben

    The best in the business and a solid veteran backup. I gave thought to taking one of the rookies as a 3rd but that probably would have been a waste of a pick. Should be a strength.

    Zeke, Pollard, Montgomery, Felton (R), jefferson (R)

    Top 2 should be solid, the rookies could add to the depth or totally bust. Really wanted Duke late.

    Aiyuk, Diontae, deVonta (R), MW, Green, watkins

    3 vets (wouldn't call them solid), 2 of which will change teams. I probably didn't need to go 6 deep here but without a top #1, the depth should help.

    E², Ertz, OJH

    At least one, and probably two these guys will play elsewhere next year. If Howard keeps falling he'll be on a lot of my teams again.

    Gay, slye

    Two kickers with jobs. 🤷🏽‍♂️

    Pitt, phi

     A top defense, I think I could have gotten along without the eagles defense. 


    In hindsight I would have taken N'Keal instead of Felton, j Kelly instead of the eagles defense, raiders instead of watkins.

    You're always good with giving feedback on other teams so I try to return the favor once in a while.

    Not much to say at QB. Mahomes vs. an average QB1 gives you a ~5ppg head start right out of the chute. A QB3 would have been setting a draft pick on fire.

    Zeke / Pollard is a nice example of the flexibility you get from the two extra slots in these 20-rounders (cough cough, this should be the survivor default, cough cough). Should combine for a top-6 or so RB1. Never been a big Montgomery fan - just feel he's OK at everything and great at nothing - in best-ball I'd definitely have thrown a dart at one of the top-2 rooks instead. The two rooks you did land I know next to nothing about, but late-round rook RBs in WSL seem like they outperform fairly often, so I like your strategy there.

    Diontae and Aiyuk are two of my favorite mid-round sleepers at any position this year. You could have yourself two borderline WR1s here. Can't fault you for taking a flier on Smith even if I'd have probably gone back-to-back TEs there with Hooper or Jonnu. Good value with Williams. Despite what you hinted at I think 6-deep is pretty much a mandatory minimum especially in the 20-rounders.

    As an Eagles fan I can tell you Goedert has been their plan at TE1 all along. He's really freaking good. I'm surprised Ertz hasn't been traded yet, but maybe there just isn't that much interest in a 31-year-old with a swollen contract at a fungible position. He'll land somewhere but my gut feeling is you'll be in the same boat I am - hoping for one of our guys to catch a TD each week so we're not getting lapped at the position.

    I ran the numbers years ago and don't remember the details but a DST2 adds a lot more punch to your scoring average than a PK2. Probably goes double in WSL where no one really knows who the "top defenses" will wind up being 9 months from now.

    I wind up with a lot of teams that look like this when I go QB early. It's just so difficult to fill the holes at other positions before you run out of runway and start having to choose between low-wattage vets and total dart throws. I think Mahomes, Zeke, and your top two WRs will keep you safely afloat for a month or two, but short of a late-career renaissance from a TE or Devonta becoming the next OBJ I'm not sure you've got the firepower to make it into December. Best of luck to you. 

  3. 13.08 Rodrigo Blankenship IND PK8 - Every time I watch the Colts’ FG unit come out on the field, I’m reminded of Matt Damon in The Accountant. I’m not saying that’s the reason I drafted Blankie … but I’m not saying it’s not.

    14.09 Darrell Henderson LAR RB56 - Having started off RB-RB, I didn’t plan to stock much depth (if Barkley or Jones go down for the duration, I’m screwed regardless). So if I only have a couple backups, I might as well grab talent and pray for opportunity. The Rams’ acquisition of Stafford should mean fewer stacked boxes in 2021, and Akers hasn’t exactly been the picture of health all the way back to his FSU days.

    15.08 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB/UFA WR84 - He’s low-key a dime-store Will Fuller … last season he scored 17+ points six times (including 8/113/2 in the divisional round) and got goosed four others, which I don’t care about because, well, it’s best ball. May or may not be back in GB in 2021, but his splash-play skillset should get him targets wherever he signs. 

    16.09 LA Chargers LAC DST17 - Lots of young talent, a new, young, defensive-minded HC and a fourth-place schedule. 

    17.08 Drew Sample CIN TE35 - Earned a 70% TE target share after Uzomah’s injury in his first full season at age 23. C.J. is a free agent and unless the Bengals draft Pitts (which they should, IMO), Sample should be able to turn in an 8-10ppg season on opportunity alone. Also, my freshman roommate was a huge fan of (the indie band) The Samples, a factoid I forgot about for at least 20 years prior to making this pick.

    18.09 Tylan Wallace ROOK WR96 - In @ZWK we trust.

    19.08 Duke Johnson FA RB71 - His skillset will get him a third-down role somewhere. Didn't really think I needed an RB5 but, with receptions roughly twice as valuable as rush attempts in full-PPR, any back likely to land 50+ targets should be drafted at some point.

    20.09 Texans HOU DST31 - At least they’re not the Lions.

    ******

    QB: Murray 4.09, Tua 8.09
    RB: Barkley 1.08, A. Jones 2.09, Wilson 9.08, Henderson 14.09, Duke Johnson 19.08
    WR: Godwin 3.08, Higgins 5.08, Jeudy 7.08, Ruggs 11.08, Bateman (R) 12.09, MVS 15.08, Ty Wallace (R) 18.09
    TE: Gesicki 6.09, Everett 10.09, Sample 17.08
    K: Blankenship 13.08
    DST: Chargers 16.09, Texans 20.09

    I started off loving this team, then soured on it around the halfway point, but now I think I’m back to liking it again. Should have a really nice floor/ceiling pairing at QB, while Barkley and Jones should easily keep me at or near the top at RB. WR is loaded with young talent and corresponding upside - but with the destinations of so many of them unknown, there are undoubtedly a lot of ways this could go badly for me between now and May. TE is obviously a huge question mark, but the state of the position is so God-awful these days that a best-ball trio of guys who can just earn a bunch of snaps probably won’t lose too many points to the field.

    Best of luck to all and see you back around here in a week or two. :boxing:

    • Thanks 1
  4. 18 hours ago, bro1ncos said:

    Boy, I can easily see my team finishing 16th this year .

    Totally unscientific sample, but IMO the teams that go out Week 1 tend to fall into two buckets: owners that loaded up on rookies and FAs, who generally start off slow as they adjust to new surroundings; and teams that just roll snake eyes on the injury dice before September even rolls around, which no one can do anything about.

  5. On 2/24/2021 at 10:51 AM, Mr. Irrelevant said:

    6.09 Mike Gesicki MIA TE13 - I'll probably wait on TE in most of my drafts this year, so a good chance I'll wind up with multiple shares of this guy. The lightbulb finally seemed to go on for Gesicki in the back half of 2020, and with his freakish physical gifts and continued growth from Tua (spoiler alert!) he's got as good a chance at a top-5 season as anyone else at this God-forsaken position.

    7.08 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR42 - Another bet on the WR youth movement. He went five picks later than in last year's WSL despite recording 53/764 at age 21 with the barely competent Drew Lock at QB, and looked good enough on-field for PFF to tag him as their top second-year breakout candidate. If Denver somehow pulls off a deal for Watson, Jeudy's ADP shoots into the top-30 overnight.

    8.09 Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB25 - Six of the 7 teams behind me in this round don’t yet have a QB2, so either I’m cliff-diving here with the rest of the lemmings or hoping a 5’10” guy who loves to run makes it through a full 17 games. I think it’s a virtual certainty Tua is the Week 1 starter - where things go from there, who knows of course, but he’s got the talent and scheme to put up QB1 numbers if he gets another playmaker or two on the roster.

    Really like what@Shadowfax and @BassNBrew have done so far. And for being a zero-hour parachute drop into the 16-hole, @Andy Dufresnehas acquitted himself very nicely as well, IMO.

    9.08 Jeff Wilson Jr. SF RB39 - Tough spot here as my top 3 options (Shenault, Higbee, Smith) went in the literal 3 picks before mine. Rest of the TEs and WRs look pretty interchangeable to me, so that leaves Wilson, a guy with a nose for the end zone on a team losing half its RB room to FA whose current #1 has missed 17 games the last 3 seasons. In theory a good candidate to draft an elite RB, but as they haven’t spent a Day 1 or 2 pick there since 2014 I’ll roll the dice on JWJ still having a substantial role.

    10.09 Gerald Everett LAR/UFA TE24 - I thought for sure my sleeper Kmet would make it back to me. But of course Ref sniped me, just as he did with DK, and Golladay, and Jimmy G. Anyway ... my working TE theory this offseason is that, with very little draft talent behind Pitts and no true studs on the open market, middling talents like Jonnu and Everett will draw much more FA interest than folks assume, which should ensure them a decent choice of landing spots and a likelihood of a bigger role. I guess we'll see in a few weeks.

    11.08 Henry Ruggs LV WR63 - As my 12-year-old daughter would put it: “Fast man go brrrrrrrrr.” Whether he should have been the first receiver taken in last year’s draft or not (hint: no), seems awfully short-sighted for the fantasy community to throw in the towel on the 12th overall pick after one pandemic-wracked pro season, especially this guy in this format.

    12.09 Rashod Bateman ROOK WR68 - WSL vets know I'm one of those guys who rarely sniffs rookies ... I don't watch much CFB and my dynasty days are years behind me so I'd just be throwing darts even more blindly than we all are already. But grabbing a consensus top-5 WR and probable 1st-round pick as my WR5 seems like it should be low-risk and high-upside. Hey, it worked for me with some guy named Jefferson last year.

    Through 12 rounds ....

    Kyler, Tua
    Saquon, A. Jones, J. Wilson
    Godwin, Higgins, Jeudy, Ruggs, Bateman
    Gesicki, Everett

    • Like 1
  6. 11 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

    ... then bury the ashes like coaches do with bad playbooks. 

    For some strange reason, the very first thing that popped into my head when I read this phrase was Chip Kelly, sitting in the cab of a backhoe in his backyard, clearing space for those gigantic picture postcards he used to hold up on the Eagles' sideline. :lmao:

    • Laughing 1
  7. 14 minutes ago, BusMan said:

    Apologies, guys. Can I get some QB Cam Newton? Not sure how to do a fill-in pick over at MFL.

    Done.

    ETA: and nice grab of Slayton coming back. If he's going in this range all summer and the Giants go after Pitts instead of a top WR, he'll be on a lot of my teams.

  8. On 2/21/2021 at 3:49 PM, Mr. Irrelevant said:

    1.08 Saquon Barkley NYG RB4 - After Cook you can throw the next 6 names in a hat and draw one IMO. All the talent in the world and with almost a full year to recover from his ACL, the biggest question mark will be whether Jones can make a leap in Year 3.

    2.09 Aaron Jones GB/UFA RB13 - Without a flex I don't love starting off RB-RB, but Jones was head and shoulders above the rest of the names on the board at this spot. Although IMO he's not likely to be back in green and gold, he should have his pick of destinations as the top all-around back on the FA market. Led the league in yards after contact last season, so his production shouldn't be dependent on the quality of OL at his new home.

    3.08 Chris Godwin TB/UFA WR15 - Unlike Jones, I do expect Godwin to be back with his current team in '21 as the Bucs try to run it back one more time. As an elite route runner he should mesh even better with TB12 in Year 2, and I expect some normalization of the TD gap between him and Evans.

    4.09 Kyler Murray ARI QB5 - Past experience in survivors has taught me that it's fine to wait on QB or TE, but rarely on both - and there's no one who stands out at the latter position at all for me here. Kyler finished QB5 last season despite spending the last few weeks as obviously hobbled as Kirk Gibson in the '88 World Series. At his size, injury is more than likely an ongoing risk, but at full health he's one of a small handful of names with overall QB1 upside.

    5.08 Tee Higgins CIN WR27 - Another thing survivors have taught me: don't worry too much about rankings or ADP this early on ... go get your guys. Jefferson's raw numbers overshadowed the rest of the 2020 draft class, but Higgins finished WR28 as a rook despite half a season spent with luminaries like Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley. With a year of experience and a full 16 from Burrow, I see Higgins with top-15 upside and would be surprised if he's not consistently drafted as a WR2 by August.

    6.09 Mike Gesicki MIA TE13 - I'll probably wait on TE in most of my drafts this year, so a good chance I'll wind up with multiple shares of this guy. The lightbulb finally seemed to go on for Gesicki in the back half of 2020, and with his freakish physical gifts and continued growth from Tua (spoiler alert!) he's got as good a chance at a top-5 season as anyone else at this God-forsaken position.

    7.08 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR42 - Another bet on the WR youth movement. He went five picks later than in last year's WSL despite recording 53/764 at age 21 with the barely competent Drew Lock at QB, and looked good enough on-field for PFF to tag him as their top second-year breakout candidate. If Denver somehow pulls off a deal for Watson, Jeudy's ADP shoots into the top-30 overnight.

    8.09 Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB25 - Six of the 7 teams behind me in this round don’t yet have a QB2, so either I’m cliff-diving here with the rest of the lemmings or hoping a 5’10” guy who loves to run makes it through a full 17 games. I think it’s a virtual certainty Tua is the Week 1 starter - where things go from there, who knows of course, but he’s got the talent and scheme to put up QB1 numbers if he gets another playmaker or two on the roster.

    Really like what@Shadowfax and @BassNBrew have done so far. And for being a zero-hour parachute drop into the 16-hole, @Andy Dufresnehas acquitted himself very nicely as well, IMO.

     

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  9. 4.09 Kyler Murray ARI QB5 - Past experience in survivors has taught me that it's fine to wait on QB or TE, but rarely on both - and there's no one who stands out at the latter position at all for me here. Kyler finished QB5 last season despite spending the last few weeks as obviously hobbled as Kirk Gibson in the '88 World Series. At his size, injury is more than likely an ongoing risk, but at full health he's one of a small handful of names with overall QB1 upside.

    5.08 Tee Higgins CIN WR27 - Another thing survivors have taught me: don't worry too much about rankings or ADP this early on ... go get your guys. Jefferson's raw numbers overshadowed the rest of the 2020 draft class, but Higgins finished WR28 as a rook despite half a season spent with luminaries like Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley. With a year of experience and a full 16 from Burrow, I see Higgins with top-15 upside and would be surprised if he's not consistently drafted as a WR2 by August.

  10. 19 hours ago, rzrback77 said:

    Was really pleased with the players available at the 2/3 turn. It was really difficult to make my decision, but went with Allen Robinson who averaged 100 receptions per season for the past two years as a highly targeted WR on a poorly quarterbacked team. Hoping for a heavy workload (perhaps less targets) but teamed with a more efficient QB.

    Tyler Lockett is likely the #2 instead of the 1A in Seattle, but their run game and offensive line is such a hot mess that I expect perhaps the same number of targets in 2021 and hopefully still teamed with Russell Wilson.

    I know it's early - really early - but I'm shocked at the value available in the #40-50 overall range this year. Normally in the equivalent of the 4th round of a 12-teamer you're looking at committee backs and WRs with either lower ceilings or lots of question marks. But Dobbins? McLaurin? Both of the Bucs' stud WRs? If as a group the 3rd round of this draft outperforms the 2nd round I won't be the least bit surprised.

    1.08 Saquon Barkley NYG RB4 - After Cook you can throw the next 6 names in a hat and draw one IMO. All the talent in the world and with almost a full year to recover from his ACL, the biggest question mark will be whether Jones can make a leap in Year 3.

    2.09 Aaron Jones GB/UFA RB13 - Without a flex I don't love starting off RB-RB, but Jones was head and shoulders above the rest of the names on the board at this spot. Although IMO he's not likely to be back in green and gold, he should have his pick of destinations as the top all-around back on the FA market. Led the league in yards after contact last season, so his production shouldn't be dependent on the quality of OL at his new home.

    3.08 Chris Godwin TB/UFA WR15 - Unlike Jones, I do expect Godwin to be back with his current team in '21 as the Bucs try to run it back one more time. As an elite route runner he should mesh even better with TB12 in Year 2, and I expect some normalization of the TD gap between him and Evans.

  11. Done. Thanks so much for sniping my predraft pick. :hot: 

    I'll probably regret passing on Thomas ... but I have zero confidence in Hill as a starting QB and zero confidence that Payton won't try to make it work regardless. Meanwhile I don't see too many destinations Jones could land where he wouldn't be a consensus top-10 RB. Now watch him become a Jaguar ...

  12. Not that anyone asked but, since I love to hear myself talk, I'm in favor of three things for this WSL iteration:

    1. Keeping the schedule the same as prior years despite the addition of Week 18. It'd be different if this was a total-points format, but no league should have its winner decided on a week when the best players on the best teams are most likely to sit.
    2. Expanding rosters to 22. I get that survivor is supposed to be a war of attrition, but there's a big difference between that and being effectively out of the running by Memorial Day. Plus it's always fun to earn a couple extra dart-throws of the Justin Jefferson variety.
    3. FLX spot in the lineup. Maybe even two, if we're feeling feisty. See #2.
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