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Mr. Irrelevant

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Posts posted by Mr. Irrelevant

  1. 15 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

    If THIS was the super secret plan that so many people thought the NFL was working on since April to deal with the inevitable positive tests during the season..... I will give the owners credit for being smart. They were certainly smart to keep this plan secret because based on this past week it kind of sounds like they are just playing this entire thing by ear once there was a positive test.

    I have nothing at all to base this on, but my guess is that the actual super-secret owners' plan was to create bubble(s) of their own a la the NBA/NHL.

    From there, my less cynical take is: they knew even announcing that option in the summer would create open revolt among the players - to the point they might not even get the season off the ground - so in public they're playing it by ear.

    My more cynical (and IMO more probable) take is: they then realized they grossly underestimated the logistical challenges associated with sheltering 2,000+ players and staff in-place and decided to just have a bare-bones version as a hush-hush "break glass in case of emergency" option.

  2. 1 minute ago, QuizGuy66 said:

    I am sure that in addition to the Ravens (in terms of any bye week switch) the players association will have a heavy say on what happens to the game.  with all the prep work PIT/TEN put in this week they can possibly argue this is not a "true" bye.

    -QG

    They can argue all they want. Remember a couple years back when Florida was under hurricane warning and the Week 1 TB / MIA game was changed to their bye, on maybe 2 days' notice? The players screamed bloody murder but it didn't change the outcome one bit. Same thing here. The NFL will come up with their solution and tell the NFLPA to choke it down with a smile.

  3. 6 minutes ago, khalpin said:

    A week 18 PIT/TEN game seem inevitable.  Especially since they're both 3-0, this matchup certainly has playoff implications.  There also may be more teams playing in Week 18 by the time January rolls around.  Just delaying the playoffs by a week seems like a no-brainer, assuming this doesn't spiral out of control.

    That's a big assumption, considering we couldn't even get out of September without the first game being called off.

    Week 18 should be a last resort, which I would use only if cases spike towards the end of the regular season. The NFL doesn't have a ton of scheduling flexibility - but they have more now then they'll have next week, which is more than they'll have the following week, and so on. They should be using what flexibility they do have to its fullest while they still can.

  4. 2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

    So what would you guys do if a game is moved to Monday night and then moved to a different week? Tell owners not to risk it and play someone on the taxi squad instead? Submit a conditional roster (Start PLAYER X if the PIT / TEN is played but PLAYER Y if not)?

    The problem with conditional rosters is that it's a lot of manual labor for the commish - emphasis on "manual" as very few if any sites support it. Not to mention that at some point, especially in this environment, it's going to call for some subjective judgment (this week we heard about the positive tests on Tuesday. What happens if news breaks about one of the teams playing MNF at 5pm Sunday, when all but four teams have already kicked off? Or five minutes after SNF kicks off?) For both reasons I haven't jumped to suggest this option in the league I run.

    Balanced against this is that any decision a league makes now will, like it or not, set a precedent for the rest of the season. This week it's potentially one or two games impacted. What if next time it's a half-dozen? Teams could easily wind up with two or three unavoidable zeroes in their lineup. Is that "fair" in any real sense of the term?

  5. 11 hours ago, Insein said:

    Should have gone for 2 after the TD. Would have solved the whole thing either way and stayed on brand for Big Balls Doug.

    Going into a shell like that is one of the clearest external signals that somebody's losing their self-confidence.

    I remember watching David Duval around the turn of the century - he used to be totally unafraid to go toe-to-toe with Tiger. 220 yards over water out of the rough to a shallow green? Sure, I've got that shot in my bag. Grip it and rip it. He was never close to Tiger skill-wise but he'd make shots like that all the time, just because he was certain he could do it.

    He missed the better part of a year due to injuries and when he came back, he'd stare down that exact same shot, ponder it for a minute, then grab the 9-iron out of the bag. He started playing not to lose instead of to win. You can't do that in a field that's 90% mental and ever be successful. I have to wonder if Doug's inside his own head at this point.

    • Like 1
  6. 3 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

    Carson Wentz through 2 weeks:
    - Passer grade 42.7 (worst in league)
    - Sacked 8 times (worst in league)
    - 4 INTs (tied worst with Cousins)
    - 64.4 passer rating (4th worst)
    - 13 poor throws (2nd worst in league)
    - 32.9 % on target throws (tied 6th worst)

    Since Wentz came into the league, 20 QBs have attempted over 1,500 passes. Wentz ranks 14th of 20 in both completion percentage and ANY/A.

    The 6 guys behind him are Bortles, Newton, Eli, Dalton, and Winston / Goff (on C%) or Keenum / Flacco (on ANY/A). These are not lists of names you want your nine-figure franchise QB to be even remotely associated with.

    I thought Wentz would be great and want Wentz to be great ... but I said the same things about Mariota a couple years ago, too. You can hand-wave things away only so much - at some point the numbers have to speak for themselves.

    • Sad 1
  7. Better late than never with a writeup, I suppose!

    1.09 - Davante Adams, WR2 GBP
    Last year WR6. Unquestioned #1 target for one of the game's elite QBs on what is still an elite offense when firing on all cylinders. Still a clear step below the names taken so far - #9 feels like a really tough slot in this format especially. High playoff potential.

    2.08 - Chris Godwin, WR6 TBB
    Last year WR3. Felt like an absolute gift here. His skillset seems tailor-made to run wild in a Brady offense, to the point where I'll make a futures bet on him to lead the league in yards if I can find a good price. Moderate playoff potential.

    3.09 - TMQB Texans (Watson), TMQB6 HOU
    Last year QB4. Still the most underappreciated QB of the 21st century. Even with a breathtakingly incompetent front office, I still have to trust in the all-world talent at a bargain price. Low playoff potential.

    4.08 - Tyler Higbee, TE8 LAR
    Last year TE7. At this ADP I will own zero shares in season-long as I see very little difference in value across the TE7-15 range. But at 2PPR I don't want to tempt fate by passing on the position for another 16 picks, and besides, Anarchy is all about upside, right? Right?? Moderate playoff potential.

    5.09 - Melvin Gordon, RB24 DEN
    Last year RB26. Not the most exciting RB1 - but given his talent, decent surrounding cast, and likely role, it's tough to imagine a scenario where a healthy Gordon truly busts at this draft slot. Low-moderate playoff potential.

    6.08 - Cam Akers, RB27 LAR 
    The Rams spent their first draft pick on Akers despite just trading up for Henderson last year and paying Brown in FA. I don't know if he's any good (to be fair, even tape-grinders probably don't know, given he spent every snap in college getting hit behind the LOS) but I have to think we'll get a chance to find out. Moderate playoff potential.

    7.09 - Jack Doyle, TE21 IND
    Last year TE19. In other words, he outperformed this draft slot in 2019 even splitting time down the middle with Eric Ebron and catching passes from Jacoby Brissett. Replace Brissett with Rivers and Ebron with Trey Burton (oh, look! He's hurt already. Again.) and the upside feels sizable. Moderate-high playoff potential.

    8.08 - Christian Kirk, WR44 ARZ
    Last year WR39. Without some guy named Nuk in the mix. As mentioned upthread, I'm not exactly sure where I was going with this since it feels like a low-ceiling, low-floor pick. Given a do-over I take Hardman or Ruggs 10/10 times here. Low playoff potential.

    9.09 - Wil Lutz, PK4 NO
    Last year PK2. With training camp a facade and offenses likely to be rustier than an '84 Fiero, 2020 could be an all-time high-water mark for NFL kickers. Last elite name on the board, even if it's 2-3 rounds earlier than usual in Anarchy. High playoff potential.

    10.08 - TMQB Bengals (Burrow), QB22 CIN
    Sure, San Fran has a better team, better coach, and more proven QB, but what the hell - I'm not in this thing to finish 6th. Low playoff potential.

    11.09 - Justin Jefferson, WR56 MIN
    If a big, fast, athletic, highly-touted first-round pick who broke all sorts of conference receiving records can't beat out Bisi freaking Johnson for targets on a team with deep postseason aspirations, then *throws up hands*. Moderate-high playoff potential.

    12.08 - Parris Campbell, WR65 IND
    If the Colts are half as good as the pundits believe, somebody will deliver WR3 fantasy value alongside Hilton almost by default. I went with Campbell because (a) he should play the slot and Rivers is no longer a deep-ball threat and (b) Pittman has been getting all the camp buzz, a great contrarian indicator for young WRs. Moderate-high playoff potential.

    13.09 - Justin Jackson, RB55 LAC
    I'm always surprised by just how little relative value scatbacks possess in this format. Tarik Cohen and Matt Breida were both comfortably outscored by Alex Erickson last year. Alex Erickson! Give me a RB like J-Jax with a small chance of early-down relevance over guys like that. Low playoff potential.

    14.08 - Mike Badgley, PK18 LAC
    Last year PK32. Young, has job security, and no one is confusing Tyrod Taylor for Patrick Mahomes. Low playoff potential.

    15.09 - Bryce Love, RB61 WAS
    So I'd say AP getting cut was timed pretty well for me, all things considered. Love could earn a plurality of touches - although it is The Washington Dumpster Fire Football Team, so who knows what that's really worth. Low playoff potential.

    16.08 / 18.08 - Cowboys DST21 / Raiders DST27
    Last year DST22/DST28. Dallas will probably be very good this year! Las Vegas ... will probably not be! But both squads should be better than last year. High / low playoff potential respectively.

    17.09 - Jordan Akins, TE36 HOU
    Last year TE27. Fun fact if you feel like winning a bar bet - Akins actually led Texans' TEs in receiving last year. He could make some noise entering his 3rd NFL season, and if nothing else Nuk's absence will put a ton of targets up for grabs. Low playoff potential.

    My going-in strategy was to effectively punt RB entirely in favor of elite names at the PPR positions. After jumping on falling value in Watson and Gordon it really morphed into a BPA exercise, although the back half is heavy on dart-throws I'm optimistic can boost my upside.

    I should be competitive for the bulk of the season ... but champion teams get about 1/4 of their total points from the playoffs and I just don't see enough postseason opportunity on this roster to take home a title.

    Best of luck all.

  8. On 9/1/2020 at 2:27 PM, Stephen Holloway said:

    Just got back from vacation and finishing up the two Anarchy drafts, participating in the Footballguys IBL draft, still unpacking from the trip, plus have lots of book work, bills, taxes, bank statements for My Mom that all rank a little above this. Not trying to be cute but also don't want to miss this contest as the Defending Champion!

    I finished 21st of 26 last year - so the only thing I'm defending here is my honor. Of course, if I really wanted to do that maybe I should have spent more than 5 minutes throwing this together.

    TMQB: BAL, SEA
    RB: McCaffrey CAR, Elliott DAL, Chubb CLE, Henry TEN
    WR: Thomas NO, J. Jones ATL, Golladay DET, Godwin TB, Adams GB
    TE: Andrews BAL, Kelce KC
    FLX: Kittle SF
    PK: Tucker BAL, Lutz NO 
    DST: PIT, BUF

  9. 10 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

    I'm fine rolling to Sunday morning.

    Don't see any way around it TBH. There's no way we're going to average a pick every 8-9 minutes during waking hours, which is more or less what it would take to get this thing wrapped up by Thursday.

  10. Sorry not sorry @Biabreakable :P

    I was *almost* sure he’d make it to the last round, but in my experience the bottom 8-10 team DSTs are completely interchangeable so figured I’d go a round early on my guy. Glad I did, I guess.

    Personally I love drafting individual players in leagues like this. My home league is a 12-team redraft but with 22 roster slots, so there are usually 230+ skill position players drafted - and these mocks are the only ones I’ve found that give me a decent picture on draft trends that far down the list.

  11. Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

    Philosophically though I do think it’s an interesting approach to the game. 

    are ~2 points per game so important that you’d take a player you don’t like or a player on a team you’ve hated your entire life?

    i know the point of FF is to win, but isn’t it to have fun, too? 

    Are those~2 points per game not a fair price to have fun?

    I dunno ... I've always kinda preferred the opposite approach.

    As a lifelong Eagles fan, I learned many years ago to avoid taking Eagles in my FF drafts whenever humanly possible. When they underperform or, worse yet, suffer season-ending injuries while on my teams, it's a double psychological blow. Whereas the pain of watching Zeke or Saquon run roughshod over the Birds is lessened if it helps carry me to a fantasy W at the same time.

    Now that sports wagering is legal in NJ, I also routinely bet against my hometown teams in important games for the same reason.

    Read about these techniques and more in my upcoming book, Chicken Soup for the Degenerate Soul.TM :lol:

    • Like 1
    • Laughing 6
  12. 49 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

    If you like money you don't want to be wondering who the fish are in your league because if you are its probably you and you should find safer waters.

    We were kind of late getting these things going this year with all of the other stuff going on, but a lot of guys have talked about using these drafts to help prepare them for their other leagues. When you draft 16 teams 12 teams does seem a lot easier by comparison. If you train harder than the real thing I think that helps prepare you.

    It's the right philosophy for poker (another hobby of mine) but FF? I've been playing FF long enough where I stopped bothering with ROI a while back. If the league is fun, active, and fair then it doesn't matter how good my opponents are - so much of this hobby is down to luck anyway. If it's not then it's not worth my time regardless.

    Yeah, the money is nice, but I've won and lost more in four hours at a NLHE table then I could win or lose in four months in any of my FF leagues. I'm sure I'd feel differently if I were an FFPC regular or whatever. 🤑

  13. 19 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

    I have Edwards doing more than Jefferson as a rookie but I am hoping to be wrong. Nice pick 256!

    I really like them both but Minny being a better overall team in this format tipped the scale. Also I needed to go WR-WR and figured there was at least some small chance Edwards might make it back to me. With you directly behind me I knew there was zero chance Jefferson would. ;)

    And Harry and Samuel were my two top choices for the second WR so naturally you and @bro1ncos conspired to give me neither of them. I can't tell you how glad I am that very few of my money leagues are this competitive.

    • Like 1
  14. A thousand apologies all ... I’m on vacation in Maine this week and we lost internet all of yesterday in a place with minimal cell service. Borked myself in IBL as well and was only rescued there through the quick reaction of my FBG teammates.

    @Anarchy99 - feel free to skip my pick if I’m OTC for more than a couple hours between now and Sunday. I’ll predraft as needed.

  15. 21 hours ago, Stephen Holloway said:

    TEAM rzrback77 (Stephen Holloway): 

    9.02    Derrick Carr LVR QB26  6
    4.15    Dak Prescott DAL QB5 10
     

    1.02    Saquon Barkley NYG RB2 11
    6.15    James White NEP RB31 6
    7.02  Damien Williams KC RB32 10
    8.15   Kerryon Johnson DET RB39 5

    3.02    Keenan Allen LAC WR13 10   
    2.15    Cooper Kupp LAR WR11 9
    10.15  Henry Ruggs (Rk) LVR WR54 6
    13.02  Randall Cobb HOU WR67 8
    12.15  Desean Jackson PHI WR65 9
    16.15  K. J. Hamler (Rk) DEN WR83 8

    5.02    Hunter Henry LAC TE7 10
    17.02  Tyler Eifert JAX TE32 7

    14.15 Josh Lambo JAX PK 7

    18.15 Steven Hauschka BUF PK 11 
        
    11.02   Pittsburgh DST 8

    15.02 Tampa Bay Bucs DST 13    

    This is one of the most barbell-looking teams I've ever seen in these. We have to start 7 skill positions each week and in 5 of those slots you should be gaining points on the field every week. Which leaves RB2 - where you've got three guys whose roles in their offenses are the "dude throws his hands in the air" emoji - and WR3 - where you've got two rooks and two guys who are always banged up. With the possible exception of White you could get 0 or 20 from any of the other six in any given week and right now in May it wouldn't surprise me. 

    But then again ... you only need one score each week from each of those groups, except for the bye weeks, and none of your studs share a bye except the two Chargers. But then again again ... if any of your big 5 misses extended time it's gonna pull the rug right out from under you.

    Interesting strategy for sure. I definitely don't hate it. I'd love it in a format like IBL - where we don't get the TE premium, have to make weekly WDIS calls, and can stash upside plays like Ruggs and Hamler while we wait for a breakout. As it is I'm not sure how well it'll work here. IMO I see you winning an early immunity or two and then flaming out mid-season when a missed game or two from a stud overlaps with another's bye week. I'm probably wrong though. GL to you my man. :thumbup:

    • Like 1
  16. 18 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

    STINKIN REF: 

    6.13    Drew Lock DEN QB16  8
    8.13    Teddy Bridgewater CAR QB23  13
    10.13  Cam Newton FA* QB32  ?

    Honestly I don't mind the Lock / Bridgewater pairing in this format, Lock gives you your ceiling and Teddy's floor is almost as safe as anyone's - I say "almost" because there's always the chance Rhule gets sick of the endless parade of 3-yard screens and takes his chances with Will "Hold My Beer" Grier ... but the Cam selection was an own goal IMO. If you want to shoot for the moon at QB I think you have to pass on Teddy there in the 8th and just roll the dice that either Cam or Tua makes it back to you in the 10th. With 18-man rosters you're crippling yourself tying up a spot on a QB3 who doesn't even have a team yet ... sure, a lot can change between now and the fall, and in the 16th or whatever I'd say go for it, but passing up what could be an every-week starter in round 10? Too high a price to pay IMO.  

    1.04    Alvin Kamara NOS RB4  6
    4.13    Raheem Mostert SFO RB24  11
    12.13    Duke Johnson HOU RB49    8
    17.04    Devonta Freeman FA RB61  ?

    Kamara is a no-brainer at 4 in full PPR ... I know you love the ham-n-egg strategy at RB2 so was surprised to see you jump on one so early. I like Mostert fine but it's Shanahan so there's absolutely no telling what will happen - he could get 100 touches, or 250, or anything in between. Duke was a steal for you in the late 12th, I came close to taking him over Miller in the 11th ... and like I said above, NBD if in the 17th you want to roll the dice on a game-changer like Freeman. Normally I'd be really worried only going 4-deep when one of them doesn't have a team yet, but each of your top 3 should catch 40+ balls which will level things out week-to-week in PPR. I think even so I'd have gone RB5 over WR7, but then again I love Boykin, so not gonna throw too many stones here.

    2.13    Kenny Golladay DET WR9  5    
    7.04    Emmanuel Sanders NOS WR39    6
    9.04    Mike Williams LAC WR47  10
    11.04    Michael Pittman IND WR56  7
    13.04    Hunter Renfrow LVR WR68  6
    16.13    Demarcus Robinson KCC WR82  10
    18.13    Miles Boykin BAL WR92  8

    Golladay at WR9 seems ambitiously priced for a lot of folks, but I'm not one of them. That exactly matches his finish last year when he played half the season with QBs that belonged in the XFL ... if Stafford plays a full 16 (and he'd never missed a game before last year) WR9 could be a bargain. Like the next two picks as well ... with Brees' declining arm and reliance on timing routes Manny is gonna eat hard in that offense and IMO Williams was victimized by Rivers going to hell last season and should rebound, for the same reason Pittman might have a wasted rookie season ... love the upside Robinson and Boykin bring as well, long experience in these things has taught me that a 4th option on a great offense is better than the 2nd option on a terrible one. You'll be paying the bills each week with this group and you'll need to being so thin elsewhere.

    3.04    Mark Andrews BAL TE4    8
    5.04    Tyler Higbee LAR TE8  9

    My guess is if they both stay healthy and perform right around ADP, best-balling the two will get you about as many points as Kelce or Kittle ...  so while teams where I've filled the starters first and then gone BPA have "looked" better, this probably isn't the worst use of a 5th-rounder in terms of overall point contribution. Last year in SSL that area of the draft was a gold mine (Drake, Godwin, A-Rob, Sanders, Moore) but IMO that's more the exception than the rule. Also, in these 16-teamers, there is some added value in playing keep-away at a scarce position like TE.

    15.04    Jason Myers SEA PK20    6  
    14.13    Los Angeles Chargers DST12 10    

    DST is a pretty high-variance position so not having a 2nd is likely to hurt you more than you think.

    Kinda amazing to see the butterfly effect that one pick at the halfway point of the draft has on the entire composition of a roster in this format with the 18-man limit ... I went back and asked myself, "what does Ref's roster look like if I take Lamb instead of Cam at 10.13?" and in my mind literally all but 1-2 of the picks would likely have gone another direction from that point. IMO the contribution of the RB position to the weekly team score is a little overrated in people's eyes - so while this roster looks like it could be in trouble any of about 75 different ways, I think you'll hang around for a while ... of course being so shallow a few places you're playing a high-wire act, so seeing you go out the first couple of weeks or making the finals wouldn't surprise me all that much either way. GL GB ...:hifive:

     

    • Thanks 1
  17. For better or worse, SSL/MBSL strategy is pretty dictated by the survivor format and the 18-man rosters. Basically you get to choose: either be somewhat thin at most positions or dangerously thin at one or two positions. This time around I decided to stock up on playable RB/WRs and let the chips fall where they may at the start-1 positions. In some cases it worked out, in others ... not so much.

    5.14    Josh Allen BUF QB9 [11]
    7.14    Jimmy Garoppolo SFO QB21 [11]

    Like this duo in this format (at least I did when I drafted them). The Diggs addition should open up the Bills' pass game and Allen's wheels make him a big week waiting to happen, while Jimmy G brings the consistent floor plus the stack potential with Kittle.  Aaaaaaaand then the schedule dropped - and they share not just a bye but a really late one. The schedule came out too late to fix through the draft - normally I could have taken a shot on one of the Bears but ... guess when their bye is? So, yeah. Here's hoping for immunity week 10.

    2.03    Josh Jacobs LVR RB11 [6]
    8.03    Derrius Guice WAS RB36 [8]
    10.03    Matt Breida MIA RB43 [11] 
    13.14    Tony Pollard DAL RB51 [10]
    17.14    Chase Edmonds ARI RB63 [8]

    Considering my plan was to get a workhorse RB1 and ham-and-egg my RB2, landing three potential feature backs was like Christmas in May. Jacobs' underuse in the pass game means his ceiling is a bit capped but he'll get his. Guice and Breida can beast out those rare occasions they're healthy - it helps that their primary competition is either over the hill, the definition of JAG, or both. And speaking of upside ... Pollard and Edmonds are both one injury away from being potential RB1s and could carry occasional standalone value as well. Really wavered on Edmonds vs. a WR7 at the end but with the injury history of the guys above him I'm not sure 4-deep would cut it. Considering their draft slots I'm thrilled with the value here.

    3.14    Courtland Sutton DEN WR19 [8]
    4.03    Robert Woods LAR WR24 [9]
    6.03    Jarvis Landry CLE WR34 [9]
    11.14    Anthony Miller CHI WR59 [11]
    14.03    Allan Lazard GBP WR72 [5]
    15.14    Kenny Stills HOU WR80 [8]

    Drafting from the 14-hole and starting with Kittle + RB I knew there was no chance to land a true WR1 so I sort of put myself at the mercy of who was available at the 3/4 turn - feel I got a little lucky. When it comes to Sutton, I'm more excited about the upside of Lock's growth for Denver's offense than I am worried about Jeudy and Hamler ... he was on a 150+ target pace after the Sanders trade so the floor should be there to go with the ceiling. Woods and Landry are exactly the kind of consistent, high-floor guys that pay big dividends with the shallower SSL rosters. Miller and Lazard are pure complementary pieces, but at 10+ spots below ADP they can return value even if that's all they are. At the end felt I had to grab at least the one best-ball lottery ticket in Stills. No league-winners here and with only 6 depth is a concern, but target volume alone should keep me afloat most weeks.

    1.14    George Kittle SFO TE2 [11]
    9.14    Irv Smith Jr. MIN TE23 [7]

    IMHO the 2PPR TE boost in these leagues isn't an overvalue because, sure, it gives the stud TEs 1st-rounder VBD, but with 16 teams spending your 1st-rounder on a TE really makes you scramble at RB/WR. I've never won doing it, not even with peak Gronk, but something something the definition of insanity because here I go again. Kittle put up 23+ points EIGHT TIMES last season :lmao: - speaking of peak Gronk. I was higher on Smith a few months ago when it was rumored the Vikes might cut Rudolph* - seems unlikely now, but with Diggs gone there should be enough targets to go around.

    * FUN FACT I JUST LEARNED TODAY: Kyle Rudolph was born on the exact same day the Berlin Wall fell.

    12.03    Matt Prater DET PK8 [5]
    16.03    Cowboys DAL DST20 [10]
    18.03    Lions DET DST30 [5]

    One high-end (low-variance) kicker and two low-end (high-variance) defenses - same as usual.

    Honestly this team seems pretty well equipped to hang around a while ... after shooting for the moon the past few of these it's nice not having to cross my fingers hoping for rookies to show out from jump or multiple young talents to make a leap all at once. Hanging around past week 11 is gonna be a challenge though :wall: Kidding aside - not sure this squad has the ceiling to go all the way unless Zeke, Drake, or maybe A-Rob goes kaput. But with rosters this shallow these things usually devolve into a war of attrition anyway ... one thing I've learned, if you can hang around past Thanksgiving, anything can happen.

    Good luck to all this year. :banned:

  18. I kept a file open and jotted down a few brief notes after making each pick, because I figured we'd be at this for 2 weeks and I honestly wouldn't remember my rationale for my early picks otherwise. Pro tip: don't do this when you're on a videoconference with three senior executives and there's a possibility they'll spring questions on you. :oldunsure: 

    1.07    Davante Adams GBP WR2
    HOF talent, HOF QB, and a target monster on what should still be a pretty good offense. As I said I don't love the 7-hole this year - several good options there and things thin out pretty quickly on the way back. Also considered: none.

    2.06    Kenyan Drake ARI RB10
    Considering Drake's history as a bellcow RB spans a grand total of 8 games, Kingsbury declining to supplement the position in either FA or the draft is pretty meaningful. The newly Nuk-lear-powered Cards :hophead: should have a high-octane offense in 2020 with Drake being a key part of it. Also considered: Jacobs, Godwin.

    3.07    Clyde Edwards-Helaire KCC RB15
    I thought RB15 might have been a reach for a raw rookie widely seen as the 3rd or 4th-best RB in his own draft class ... but 2 weeks later the expert consensus has him even higher because Chiefs, so what do I know? Probably less in this case than Andy Reid, or at least I hope. RB in particular in the fantasy realm has always been just as much about opportunity as talent. Also considered: Gurley, Smith-Schuster.

    4.06    Le'Veon Bell NYJ RB19
    Unlike my first two RB picks this one isn't about ceiling but floor. I don't see many scenarios where a healthy Bell doesn't get 250 touches and turn them into 1,200-1,400 yards. Should spend 10+ weeks in my starting lineup. Also considered: none.

    5.07    Tyler Higbee LAR TE7
    With 12 teams and only a marginal PPR boost I came real close to punting the position entirely. But I already had that strategy at QB aaaaaand I could just see myself trying to somehow squeeze eight QB/TE/DST picks into six rounds later on. Higbee vs. Engram was a coin flip but the vacated targets from Cooks tipped the scales. Also considered: Engram, Metcalf, Sutton.

    6.06    Terry McLaurin WAS WR27
    I was irritated but not surprised that DK, Sutton and Hilton were all snapped up in between my picks as I saw a tier break at WR after them. Ingram was someone I stared at for a while here, but ultimately decided against tying up yet another flex spot this early. Scary Terry has already shown his ability to work as the #1 and has the potential for a true breakout season if Haskins can pull himself up to even an average QB.

    7.07    Noah Fant DEN TE12
    Nothing at all I really liked on the board at this pick - the WRs all looked interchangeable and I was pretty sure one of my 4 remaining QB1's would make it back, so I settled on beefing up my TE depth with one of the few remaining names with every-week flex upside. I don't want to say this was a wasted pick, but in IBL I'd have swapped this and my 10th for two 8th-rounders here in two seconds. Also considered: Hunt, Landry.

    8.06    Carson Wentz PHI QB13
    I had every intention of punting QB until later but, with QBs going a little quicker than I expected in a 1-QB format, I figured I wouldn't get another shot to land a good bet for a top-10 season. My incoming plan was to draft three late names anyway, so this should let me wait a few rounds on the other two. Also considered: Stafford, Landry.

    9.07    Marquise Brown BAL WR37
    10.06    John Brown BUF WR43

    At this point I'm pretty well set everywhere but WR (and DST, but even with the boost in scoring there's no need to panic first). With best-ball scoring and deep rosters these are my favorite type of WR to stockpile - high-variance speedsters who might disappear entirely one week and put up 25 points the next. Also considered: Slayton, Sanders, Diontae Johnson. 

    11.07    Ravens BAL Def2
    As with Ref's superflex league, I think the higher scoring and positional variance warrants both rostering 4 DSTs and paying up for at least one. I took the 49ers last go-around so viva la difference, this time the Ravens it is. Also considered: 49ers DST.

    12.06    Ryan Tannehill TEN QB19
    For waiting until the halfway point of the draft for my QB2, I didn't expect be able to get the guy who finished QB4 on a PPG basis as a starter last year. Also considered: none.

    13.07    Justin Jefferson MIN WR56
    My second draft pick who's fresh off a 2019 national championship so, ummm, Geaux Tigers! Cousins has always relied on slot WRs as a security blanket and the Vikings spending first-round capital on Jefferson despite the embarrassment of WR riches in the draft gives me no reason to expect that will change. Also considered: Miller, Fitzgerald.

    14.06    Buccaneers TBB Def13
    15.07    Jets NYJ Def20

    The former, a thoroughly mediocre defense paired with an outstanding offense and coaching staff. The latter, an outstanding defense paired with a thoroughly mediocre offense and coaching staff. Pick your poison!

    16.06    Eric Ebron PIT TE24
    The 2019 Steelers had a team QB rating of 76. I feel like this is a rare case of statistics actually underrating the awfulness; 76 was the league average QB rating in 1989, and there's no way the 1989 NFL as a whole was as bad throwing the ball as Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges are, or we'd all have gouged our eyes out decades ago. Anyway! The air game should be back to near-normal in the 'Burgh, and Ebron should be one of several beneficiaries.

    17.07    Falcons ATL Def25
    Not a real appetizing group of defenses left on the table, so close my eyes and take a blind stab. Also considered: Cards DST.

    18.06    Jarrett Stidham NEP QB28
    A Wentz / Tannehill duo far exceeded my ingoing expectations for the wait-on-QB strategy, so I wasn't necessarily desperate for a QB3. But with <$1m in cap space, Cam / Jameis / Dalton were never serious options for NE - so Belichick forgoing a QB in the draft should give Stidham's stock a major boost. At #210, why not? Also considered: Tyrod Taylor, Duke Johnson, Boston Scott.

    19.07     Darrynton Evans TEN RB56
    Mike Vrabel handed the ball off to Derrick Henry 303 times last year. Yes, Henry is the approximate size of an Abrams tank, but still, that's a heavy workload. As an ankle-breaking burner, Evans shouldn't just be a Dion Lewis fill-in but a real thunder-and-lightning complement in this run-heavy offense. 100 touches as a rookie wouldn't surprise me. Also considered: Jaylen Samuels, Rashaad Penny.

    20.06     Brandon Aiyuk SFO WR75
    I have no idea how this team came 7 minutes away from a Lombardi when their skill-position personnel philosophy exactly mirrors the Russians' at Stalingrad: Just throw more bodies at it! I guess at least this means the first-round rookie has plenty of opportunity there for the taking. Also considered: Tee Higgins.

    21.07     Mason Crosby GBP PK17
    22.06     Chris Boswell PIT PK18

    With multiple guys at the front of the draft still needing multiple kickers, I figured this was my last best chance to lock down two guaranteed point producers. Also considered: none.

    23.07     Danny Amendola DET WR88
    Finished WR48 last year despite playing half the season with something named a (checks notes) David Blough at QB. He'll probably finish right around WR48 again this season, 'cause that's what he does. Given that we have to start half of these rosters every week, I'll take that.

    24.06     Joshua Kelley LAC RB68
    With Gordon's 205 touches out the door, discussions about Ekeler vs. Justin Jackson miss the point that they're very similar guys. Kelley's more of a straight-ahead, move-the-pile RB, but with enough added speed and athleticism that he very well could play the Melly role in that offense. Also considered: Brian Hill, Anthony McFarland.

    25.07     Miles Boykin BAL WR96
    I'll play the "reversion to the mean" game and assume that the Ravens won't be 32nd in pass attempts again, which should lift all boats, at least slightly. Also considered: any of about 10 remaining 2018-2020 WR draftees.

    *************

    A surprisingly high percentage of the time, when I go into drafts with a specific strategy and stick to my process, the end result winds up not really appealing to me on first glance. I gotta say this is one of those times. TE is potentially underwhelming for the amount of draft capital I spent. Lack of depth seems like it could be a problem, with mid-round rookies at RB4/5 and a QB3 with 4 career pass attempts - although OTOH, with this scoring system I'll only really need to find 2 skill-position scores each week as I'll very often be flexing a DST2. On the other other hand ... perhaps 2020 with its upending of spring activities and TC isn't the best time to be leaning on a bunch of rooks.

    Thanks again to Ref for putting something new out there. Looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out. Best of luck to all. 

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