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Mr. Irrelevant

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Posts posted by Mr. Irrelevant

  1. On 4/11/2020 at 12:39 AM, ryheaps said:

    In

    just noticed I didn't @ you in my post above even though you were in last year's league ... sorry about that - glad you caught wind of it anyway.

    OK, looks like now we've got 14. Do we want to find 2 more or just roll with what we have?

  2. 8 hours ago, Shadowfax said:

    There should be a box to select under the draft setup (or draft order all round) to email owners the draft order. 

    I tried that for PDSL but there are about 14 different options for draft order setup ... and the one that seemed like it should make the most sense (randomize draft order, all rounds) actually assigns a different random order for each round. Good ole MFL :wall:

    If anyone is 100% sure how randomizing in the traditional sense works, let us both know so I can implement it for PDSL as well ... thanks

  3. On 4/8/2020 at 9:33 PM, Stinkin Ref said:

    cool....can you take the lead on getting the MFL PDSL thing ready so as soon as we can we can tee it up? 

    Just went in and transferred it to a 2020 league. It's still set up for 16 teams so we either need to find 5 more or move to plan B ... paging @BassNBrew @Shadowfax @Reaper (if we can get to 14 we can do weeks 1-2 combined lowest score immune/out, weeks 3-4 combined lowest score immune/out, and as usual from there)

    I'd love to get however many more signed up by Sunday so we can get this thing rolling Monday morning but I'll ultimately leave it up to Ref.

    Reminder: PDSL is 20 rounds and there is a flex spot in the starting lineup.

  4. On 4/2/2020 at 11:57 AM, Stinkin Ref said:

    Kinda weird cause I thought you killed it for almost exactly the first half of the draft and that after that it fizzled a bit for me......maybe just because I don't really have any of the guys you took in the second half on my radar at all at the moment....I'm warming to Lock a little so think you will be ok there even if Haskins becomes a wasted pick....Gurley's knee probably a swing vote for this team...along with Henderson where if that turns into a break out its huge....I'm having a hard time with the WR's here because I just don't really like any of them after Golloday and Hollywood (love him in best ball).....Chark scares the #### out of me....and your last 4 don't move my needle and you have to start 3.....it is however best ball, so you never know, I could be nit picking....I love the Mack pick, would have liked to added him but not sure Hill or Snell get much work....you mentioned top 3 at TE and DST....I guess that can be figured out somehow, but not sure the DST angle will be as huge to the overall standings as people think....I guess you should hope so as you had heavy investment there with 3 of your top 14 picks...only 2 DST can start, so the ROI there for you needs to maybe have the additional one definitely starting most weeks over the other positions....we shall see...god luck....:banned:

    Thanks as always for the feedback ... honestly I can't say I disagree with your assessment. Maybe it's just that 12 teams instead of 16 means more opportunities to be sniped, but I found myself always just missing out on names I really wanted in the back half ... which I didn't expect after feeling like I had lots of good choices with my early picks. As mentioned I was sure I'd land Jones or Cousins as my QB2 coming back at 11 which wouldn't have forced me to reach for Haskins ... Marvin Jones, D-Jax, Fitz, Ross, Campbell were all WR names that went a pick or three before I planned to grab them, with @BassNBrew being a repeat offender in that regard ... Also in retrospect PK2's didn't go nearly as quickly as I expected and I'd rather have had Herndon or Irv Smith as my TE3 and Badgley or Slye three rounds later instead of McManus / Graham.

    I think with the PPR delta on TEs the TE2 for most teams will play more weeks than their WR4 so I feel like I have a leg up there even if the bottom falls out of my WR corps. But that's just a gut feeling.

    As for DST, I don't know I had the right strategy but IMO they will have an outsize influence on the standings ... the issue being that in March we have no idea how 75% of NFL defenses are gonna stack up. The Bears were a "can't miss" DST1 last spring and finished 18th in SL scoring, while the Bucs were a bottom-5 drafted team and finished 5th - there are probably a dozen more examples like this. I didn't do the math per se, but when you have a high-scoring, high-variance position in best-ball, logic says you take an extra shot or two since only upside really matters and we don't know where that upside will come from. Looking back, instead of jumping on the Stillers early, maybe a better strategy was to hold off until rounds 12-15 and grab 3 mid-pack teams in a row. This team looks a lot better with Edelman at WR3, the rest of my WRs moving down one spot on the bench,and SEA / DAL / TB as my DSTs. 

    Regardless, gonna be a fun league. :towelwave:

  5. Team Irrelevant is in the books ...

    1.09    (9)    Kelce, Travis KCC TE1
    Kelce in the late 1st almost can't be a bad strategy in TE-premium formats. Having 2 flex spots to play with means I can still grab value later at the position, which solidified the pick. No other considerations here.

    2.04    (16)    Jacobs, Josh LVR RB8
    In best-ball drafts I almost always break ties in favor of "we probably haven't seen his best season yet". That left Jacobs and Chubb as options, and I see less competition for touches with the former. Top-3 upside.

    3.09    (33)    Golladay, Kenny DET WR12
    See above w/r/t Jacobs - with the potential to start up to 5 I knew I needed a WR here and while Moore and Brown were strong possibilities, I like Kenny G's QB much better than Tannehill or the Carolina QB to be named later.

    4.04    (40)    Gurley, Todd ATL RB20
    I took a shot with this pick that Gurley would get traded / released and find himself in a better situation. Safe to say this gamble paid off as Atlanta was close to a dream landing spot - a high-octane offense with lots of other weapons and a QB who isn't afraid to involve his backs in the pass game. He'll be a low-end RB1 come draft season and if healthy should perform accordingly.

    5.09    (57)    Mack, Marlon IND RB26
    I try to avoid the RB22-32 range like the plague in these drafts as they're often replacement-level talents who generally get surpassed via the draft or in-season. Mack seems like an outlier - uber-talented but perhaps without the durability to be a true workhorse. That's fine for my RB3 ... if I get 8-10 scoring weeks out of him he'll more than pay this draft cost. Also considered Wilson here but with just 12 teams felt it wouldn't hurt to wait at QB.

    6.04    (64)    Chark, D.J. JAC WR25
    Another from the bucket of "probably haven't seen his best season yet". Finished WR16 last season despite zero consistency at QB and borderline tankalicious play-calling. If Minshew is more than a flash in the pan Chark could threaten top-12 status this season.

    7.09    (81)    Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def3
    I think when the smoke clears on this scoring format, the folks who spent a lot of draft capital on DSTs and had them at worst meet expectations will come out on top. Pittsburgh reloads rather than rebuilding on defense and consistently finishes near the top in almost every statistical measure.

    8.04    (88)    Hooper, Austin CLE TE10
    Mentioned earlier that there was no real rationale behind taking a guy I've never liked at a position I didn't need other than falling value - he belongs alongside Higbee / Henry who went 20+ picks earlier. Probably would have gone Edelman or Lamb here otherwise.

    9.09    (105)    Allen, Josh BUF QB9
    No way should he be the 9th QB off the board in best-ball, especially after the Diggs trade. He'll pull the occasional disappearing act but the 4-total-TD / 40-point weeks more than compensate. Would have opted for Ryan instead before the trade broke.

    10.04    (112)    Brown, Marquise BAL WR41
    60% of his fantasy production came in 4 games. Excuse me ... we're still playing best-ball for this league, right? Okay, thanks. Just checking.

    11.09    (129)    Lock, Drew DEN QB23
    If Hollywood isn't on the board at 112, I double up at QB with Wentz there. Instead, I watch 11 QBs come off the board in between my picks and had to grit my teeth and grab something from what was left. No real reason for Lock over Taylor / Darnold other than that he's likely to be higher-variance and, hey, it's best-ball. 

    12.04    (136)    Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def16
    See: everything I said about the Steelers, plus with the NFL's answer to Tony Bennett at HC.

    13.09    (153)    Henderson, Darrell LAR RB38
    After going RB with 3 of my first 5 picks I'd planned on punting it well into the late teens, but Henderson was way too attractive to pass up on the heels of the Gurley trade. I loved him coming out of Memphis, and while he didn't make much noise as a rook I ultimately think he's more talented than both Brown and any Day 2 pick they might score in the draft.

    14.04    (160)    Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def19
    Pssst: This Bucs defense is actually good. They finished 5th in FO DVOA, and that was with a QB who gave the other team possession in Bucs' territory about twenty times. I'll go way out on a limb and say Tom Brady isn't going to have that problem.

    15.09    (177)    Ruggs, Henry FA WR55
    So remember when I said on Sunday, "I'll have to grab a couple of veteran possession guys to fall back on week in and week out"? Yeah, not so much. I think Ruggs is an NFL bust waiting to happen and am praying he goes off the board before the Eagles have a chance to make that mistake at 23. Having said that: (a) I'm wrong a lot; and (b) best ball + 4.2 speed = I'll take my chances.

    16.04    (184)    Gould, Robbie SFO PK7
    The last of the week-in, week-out no-brainers at PK.

    17.09    (201)    Miller, Anthony CHI WR61
    He was my second choice in the 15th, so imagine my surprise when he was still available two rounds later. Likely to start the season as the Bears' #2 and as a 95% SPARQ home-run threat should be another best-ball friendly asset.

    18.04    (208)    McManus, Brandon DEN PK15
    Has a safe job. Kicks at altitude. Moving on.

    19.09    (225)    Hill, Justice BAL RB52
    He'll be on every team of mine at this price. A young talent on a run-first team with the league's best OL whose primary competition is on the wrong side of 30.

    20.04    (232)    Haskins, Dwayne WAS QB32
    With 25 roster spots to play with, I'd feel really stupid if Allen got hurt Week 3 and I'm trying to compete in a 12-teamer with a solo Drew Lock. Haskins is the last name on the board more likely than not to play double-digit games. Even if they're unspectacular, some points are better than none if it comes to that.

    21.09    (249)    Graham, Jimmy CHI TE33
    Another guy I'm puzzled fell so far. Trubisky is allergic to downfield throws and Foles is bad at them. Who better to vacuum up the endless series of 5-yard crossing routes? Sure, there's a chance he's cooked, but Ben Watson was a top-5 TE at an older age and I'd take present-day Graham over peak Watson any day.

    22.04    (256)    Arcega-Whiteside, JJ PHI WR76
    Has the clear #2 on a presumptive top-10 offense ever fallen this far in a fantasy draft? Like, ever? It seems a little premature to kick a 2nd-round draft pick to the curb because of one injury-hampered season at age 22.

    23.09    (273)    Snell, Benny PIT RB66
    I'm a huge fan of James Conner the man and the story, but never been a huge fan of Conner the RB. He's probably still better than Snell, but for one of the worst-performing RBs in combine history to still rack up 450 yards in spot duty as a rookie tells me there might be more behind the curtain here.

    24.04    (280)    Tate, Auden CIN WR86
    A poor man's Kenny Golladay, which could be enough when the competition is a 32-year-old Green, a career #2 in Boyd, and human voodoo doll John Ross. 

    25.09    (297)    Hurd, Jalen SFO WR94
    Because when the 2020 WR draft class is supposed to be the deepest group in a decade, the obvious strategy is to load up on ... the 2019 WR draft class.

    QB: Allen, Lock, Haskins
    RB: Jacobs, Gurley, Mack, Henderson, Hill, Snell
    WR: Golladay, Chark, Hollywood, Ruggs, Miller, Arcega-Whiteside, A. Tate, Hurd
    TE: Kelce, Hooper, Graham
    PK: Gould, McManus
    DST: PIT, SEA, TB

    Should be top-3 at TE and DST. RB should be mid-pack at worst, with best-in-league upside if injury luck breaks my way. Obviously QB and WR are the question marks. Purely in raw scoring terms my total team points at both positions will probably be in the bottom third, but best-ball should keep my weekly numbers competitive ... and since this isn't survivor, the inevitable down weeks from the younger names won't kill me. In other words this team looks a lot like my WSL squad, but the changes to format and scoring mean I like this team's prospects quite a bit better than I do that one.

    Thanks to Ref for setting this up, herding the cats and not being afraid to blaze some new trails with the rules. Looking forward to a fun season. :football:

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  6. 1 minute ago, -OZ- said:

    Trubisky in the 25th might be the SOD. 

    I was actually going to say the same thing about Dalton. Yes, there's a scenario where he's purely a backup all year, but if offered even odds I'd wager he'll wind up starting more games over the course of the season than the Biscuit.

  7. Had to cash out. Put equal shares of my secondary Roth in two small-caps I've been following (FLXN and INMD) last week and both went parabolic on me. I fully expect to be able to buy the same shares back cheaper at some point in the next month. If I can't, well, +60% in a week is a nice consolation prize.

    I'd strongly advise folks who've done this well or better this week to take some chips off the table now as well with the same strategy in mind.

  8. Also, the nanosecond the ceiling gets raised or eliminated, Treasury should put out a press release announcing the issuance of 100-year T-bonds to finance all this stuff. If you're gonna kick the can down the road anyway, you might as well do it Justin Tucker-style.

    • Like 2
  9. 20 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

    Even as a deficit hawk, sadly I kinda agree. 

    Might as well make it a $5T coin if we're gonna do it though. 

    The entire rationale behind the $1T coin is to allow the US to (ostensibly) legally circumvent the debt ceiling. So what does it matter if it's a single $1T coin, or 5 of them, or what have you? If you're gonna go full Keynes here anyway, use this crisis as your excuse to nuke the damn ceiling once and for all. Solve the freaking disease instead of treating the symptoms.

    • Like 1
  10. 10 hours ago, siffoin said:

    Those would be general support levels.  I think he was asking about resistance...which is in the $270-80ish levels.

    Honestly...I think we're have more than a punchers chance to drop to around $130ish $SPY

    It wouldn't entirely shock me. That would be right around the 60% mark off the highs - if anything a little short of what Hussman is predicting for the unwind.

    It sounds apocalyptic but it's not really. All it takes to get there is a 25% haircut from peak-cycle earnings, 25% multiple compression, and a 30% downside overshoot of "fair value" due to fear and panic (0.75*0.75*0.7 = 0.39 = 61% down). The latter is what you typically see at the nadir of a bear, and the former two seem actually like they could be conservative based on early signs out of Goldman et al. I don't have an oracle's robe on and I'm not even saying it's likely ... but it's possible.

    More anecdotally, the ratio of folks on this thread alone talking about buying the dips to selling everything and going to cash or gold is enough to tell me we're not at the bottom yet (sorry fellas).

  11. Almost at the halfway point for me ...

    9.09	105	Mr. Irrevelant	Allen, Josh BUF QB9
    11.09	129	Mr. Irrevelant	Lock, Drew DEN QB23

    In 12-team 1-QB leagues you either have a top-5 name or you're losing points each week to the teams that do. If you don't want to spend up on the former, you might as well take a crack at someone who could get there if the cards break right - and I think Allen's that guy. Once the market digests the news of the Diggs trade I expect him to move significantly up ADP boards. Diggs not only has the downfield speed to leverage Allen's arm but is a complete three-level receiver in a way that guys like Brown and Beasley just aren't. Thought hard about Wentz in the 10th but gambled that I'd still have Jones or Cousins there for me the next round. Lock should at least get another full season as starter and has some exciting young talent in Sutton and Fant to work with.

    2.04	16	Mr. Irrevelant	Jacobs, Josh LVR RB8
    4.04	40	Mr. Irrevelant	Gurley, Todd ATL RB20
    5.09	57	Mr. Irrevelant	Mack, Marlon IND RB26

    Looked to grab three starters early knowing that the increased scoring at TE/PK/DST would require me to look elsewhere in the mid-rounds. Love this trio and think they could put up 5,000 combined yards between them if the latter two stay healthy.

    3.09	33	Mr. Irrevelant	Golladay, Kenny DET WR12
    6.04	64	Mr. Irrevelant	Chark, D.J. JAC WR25
    10.04	112	Mr. Irrevelant	Brown, Marquise BAL WR41

    No strategy at WR beyond just taking best-ball value as it falls to me. Hollywood in particular was a baffling name to fall to WR41 in this format but I'm not complaining. I'll have to grab a couple of veteran possession guys to fall back on week in and week out, but those usually slip in these drafts anyway so no harm in waiting.

    1.09	9	Mr. Irrevelant	Kelce, Travis KCC TE1
    8.04	88	Mr. Irrevelant	Hooper, Austin CLE TE10

    I've always thought Hooper was a replacement-level talent and largely a product of his system in Atlanta, so why would I take him the day after he went to Cleveland? Good question.  If nothing else he should provide the underneath security blanket for Baker that Njoku could never stay on the field to offer. The PPR bump for TEs was another incentive to grab a backup before the cupboard got too bare as well.

    7.09	81	Mr. Irrevelant	Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def3
    12.04	136	Mr. Irrevelant	Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def16

    With a DST scoring system that awards on both yards and points, IMO coaching schemes that focus on establishing the run and shortening the game clock is key to good fantasy production. These are two of the few remaining in the league.

    I like my start but to Oz's point, I'm sure most of us will in comparison to the 16-team drafts we usually do around here. Still lots (and lots) of slots left to be filled.

  12. 19 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

    Question.  If you put in an order to sell or buy at like midnight, is the price you sell/buy it for the price you see on the ticker?  Or is there more to it?

    I would avoid putting in any buy or sell orders after market hours if you can at all avoid it. If you absolutely must, be 100% sure to use limit orders.

    Market orders get filled when the market opens at whatever price you can get immediately after the open, but that price could be wildly different than what you see on the last print from the market close. Moreover, stocks tend to gap higher (on good news) or lower (on bad) at the open and then invariably retrace some of those gains or losses in the next hour - so people with market orders at the open get screwed right out of the gate.

    • Like 1
  13. 48 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

    I say all that to say we are literally wired to become trapped in the news headlines. 

    I struggle too. But I'm trying my best to limit myself. 

    I was a sportswriter and editorial columnist for our college paper. It was baffling and occasionally infuriating to wake up early the morning after I submitted an article and find my words, with my byline, under a headline that usually missed the crux of my article; sometimes was completely unrelated; and occasionally something entirely different.

    The problem with our present-day news climate is everyone's their own headline writer. Even if people wanted to do the research, due diligence, and rounds and rounds of editing required to write good longform, you can't do longform in 280 characters, or 15 seconds, or four Powerpoint bullets for a senior executive.

    And the most important issues of the day don't distill well into those formats.

    I found the only way to get myself off that hamster wheel was to leave Twitter entirely. I don't regret it for a minute and haven't looked back.

    • Like 1
  14. 2 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

    So does stuff like TVIX basically just go up when the market goes down?  Or is there a lot more going on there

    There's a LOT lot more going on there.

    No amateur investor should touch any of those leveraged index plays with a 10-foot pole IMO. It's like playing poker on a cruise ship ... yes, you could hit a big hand at the right time and win, but mathematically speaking the rake makes it a guaranteed loser if you sit at the game for any length of time.

    • Thanks 2
  15. I kind of suspected Murray would go QB3 after the Nuk news ... just wasn't sure how soon someone would be willing to take the plunge.

    I probably won't own any shares of him at that price, but it's hard for me to find anyone else I'd rank above him either. Looks like I'll wind up punting the position in most leagues yet again this year.

    • Like 1
  16. 1 hour ago, lod001 said:

    Usually on selloffs like this, everything falls and nothing is immune. Seems like times are different now with 401ks adding $ every week to the market. MSFT AMZN AAPL are 3 that will always have inflows. 

    Alternative view: we'll know the market is truly near a bottom when even the sacred cows like FAANG get slaughtered.

  17. 8 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

    @Mr. Irrelevant... get notifications please

    Sorry Ref (and team). I did have it set up to text me - or thought I did at least - I waited to go OTC again this morning and nothin'. I went in and cleared everything out, turned it off, then back on and re-entered my info. Hopefully no more holdups from my end.

    1.09	9	Kelce, Travis KCC TE1	
    2.04	16	Jacobs, Josh LVR RB8
    3.09	33	Golladay, Kenny DET WR12
    4.04	40	Gurley, Todd LAR RB20

    TE premium scoring argues for filling the position early - and while I'm often reluctant to spend a 1st-rounder in the 16-team survivors, knowing it was coming back around to me in 6 more picks made Kelce an easy choice at 9.

    I'm always biased toward upside in best-ball - safe to say my next three picks reflect that. Two young, talented studs still on the upswing in JJ and Golladay ... of course , situation matters too, and who knows what either of those offenses will look like in 6 months? And Gurley went from a 1st-rounder in WSL to a 4th-rounder here - admittedly I wouldn't have wanted him at a 1st-round price but RB20 overall seems like a massive overreaction. He's still only 25 and there are rumors swirling of the Tom Brady Bucs making a run at him this week ... yes please.

  18. 20 minutes ago, beef said:

    I'll be all in and sell all my kids toys for more cash at 1900.

    I lied, probably do that at 2000-2100 range.

    John Hussman has often said recently not that he expects a 60-65% correction, but that it would be "run-of-the-mill" based on historical market action and fundamentals.

    2,300 on the S&P (where we are right now) is about 30% off the highs, so it's tempting to think that even in the worst case we're already halfway there. 

    But here's the thing: even if you sidestepped the initial down leg completely and went all-in now, if -65% comes to pass, yes, the guy who's been fully invested will lose 65% of his nest egg ... but you'll still lose 50% of yours.

    Drawing a line in the sand to go all-in is a bad, bad idea. Because if and when the worst comes to pass, there's no substitute for dry powder. 

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