JFS171

Well Bolden played 25 second half snaps yesterday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I would think it has to be Taylor or Rhamondre. Whichever one can pass pro. They don’t want Brandon Bolden playing 40 snaps a game.

Feels like a big TE week for those of us scrounging. Freiermuth already mentioned. Dawson Knox continues to dominate snaps for Buffalo and gets red zone opportunities. He’s fairly new to the position, and he’s catching everything this year (maybe the hand/eye coordination coach actually helped). Dan Arnold probably has more appeal in Jacksonville replacing the pass-catching TE role that got 8 targets week 1. Per The Athletic, the Jags insisted on Arnold. I’m guessing Carolina tried to trade Ian Thomas in the deal, and the Jags declined. And finally, Tommy Tremble is left behind in Carolina to inherit a larger role. They’ve been splitting the job among three or four guys to date, but Rhule has already called Tremble “this year’s Jeremy Chinn.” He just took on more snaps last week, blocks like a fiend, and has some serious athleticism.

Looking at McPherson, Gano, or McManus moving forward. My concern for McPherson is only 3 FGAs so far, and the offense looks so out of sorts. On the plus side, he’s made the kicks. McManus and Gano both playing for offenses moving the ball, both their teams having attempted 5 FGs each, though Gano is 2/2 from 50+ while McManus hasn’t attempted one from that distance. The scary thing from Gano is that all five of those came in one week.

He was ### for Carolina, and Marty Hurney’s insistence keeping him on the roster over rookie year Butker is what allowed the Chiefs to poach the latter. Of course he’s made 35 straight FGs.

Grabbed Cleveland in one league and managed to get NO in a couple others.

I typically look for kickers whose offenses offer a lot of attempts. It’s kinda like volume for RBs, except the talent pool is much broader - most of these kickers can do the job. You’re always going to have the top guys on the Chiefs, etc, but you can stream K just like streaming D. It’s much more random early in the season, however, until we start to get more data on these offenses. I also look for a kicker whose team is playing a game they should dominate. Trailing teams don’t often kick FGs in the second half and closing stretch of the game. Dallas offered Zeurlein 5 FGAs in a game where they struggled to run the ball with any consistency. He missed a few of them, but he missed a lot of camp too and usually these veteran guys bounce back. He’s a sneaky play this week IMO. For the second reason I mentioned above, go back to the well with McManus. Jacksonville looks like the worst team in the league by a good stretch, and the Denver D looks pretty solid. I’d expect multiple FGs and multiple XPs from McManus this week. I’m intrigued by McPherson who clearly has plenty of leg, and the Bears aren’t a very scary matchup. He’s the upside pick as a guy you could roster the rest of the way if the Cinci offense finds a little more consistency. Also still willing to roll out Bass and Gay as both offenses moved the ball and offered opportunities, and both are in games their teams should control this week.

I was really hoping Carolina would sign the East Carolina kid that played with the ravens all preseason, but I overlooked the Zane Gonzalez availability. He played at Clemson just down the road from Charlotte, and he’s had some great seasons. If he fails, I’m guessing they sign someone we’ve never heard of.

He ran 8 routes. How on earth could that production sustain on that level of offensive involvement? Either he’s a red zone maven the likes of which we’ve not seen in some time, or this isn’t sustainable without a significant increase in routes run.

Early in the season I just want a K from a good offense in a game where I think they’re likely to win and possibly win handily. We’ll start to get data as the season progresses about which offenses have the most FGAs and which defenses allow the most FGAs which should shape our approach down the stretch. Right now, however, we don’t have that. Certainly the Butkers and Tuckers of the world will be owned and started. But for this opening week I’m looking at Matt Gay, Tyler Bass, and Brandon McManus with an eye of consideration toward Ryan Santoso as well. Last year, Gay kicked in seven games for the Rams and scored 10+ (my league gives extra points for longer FGs) in five of the seven (think multiple FGs). Rams open at home in a prime time game against the Bears with their shiny new QB and McVay looking to reassert his offensive genius. Bears are trotting out Andy Dalton. I expect the Rams to win this fairly easily, and put Gay in great position for multiple FGs and multiple XPs. Bass had some great stretches last year too and has a big leg for longer FGs. Bills are at home against Pittsburgh, and while I think they win, I’m not convinced they dominate. If they’re trailing at the end, you don’t often see FGs being kicked. Slight hesitation here. McManus has a booming leg and plenty of longevity. I expect the Daniel Jones-led Giants to get smashed by Denver, but they are at home and Barkley seems likely to be cleared. Same with Golladay. This offense might look completely different with a healthy supporting cast, plus Chubb may not play for Denver. Good spot for McManus, but maybe not as good as Gay in my mind. Santoso I just wanted to mention as interesting to watch. Carolina had a ton of FG opportunities for Slye last year that he just frequently missed. Perhaps that was a function of Bridgewater (which would bode well for McManus), or perhaps it’s the nature of the offense (or completely random - most likely). Still, Santoso reportedly has a very big leg and the matchup isn’t awful. Decent dart, but I’m riding with Gay this week.

Not sure if he’s been mentioned, but Darrel Williams appears to be the primary backup to CEH. We know Williams is trusted in pass pro and trusted in the offense in general. If something bad happens to CEH, Williams is in a tremendous situation to eat. McKinnon would have a role, sure, but Williams would be lead dog on the best offense in the game.

I tend to stream week to week, and while looking ahead is potentially beneficial, injuries significantly change things. I would also argue that right now we don’t really know which defenses are utterly dominant to where matchups don’t matter. I’ve already mentioned Carolina for week 1, and same idea with Miami against Mac Jones (though I think NE will run the ball 40+ times if they can get away with it, and Miami’s weakness last year was power running games). I think another very sneaky start is the Chargers at Washington. If it wasn’t a 1:00 game on the east coast, I’d have less hesitation, but the Chargers have long been expected to ascend into the upper echelon of DSTs, but they’ve been utterly plagued by injury the last several years. For now, at least, they’re healthy. Joey Bosa and Derwin James bolster what was already a stout D, and Brandon Staley brings his knowledge as DC of the Rams last year to the scheme. Week 1 stacks them against Fitzpatrick who is super fun but super reckless, and perhaps of bigger concern, Washington’s starting OTs will be Sam Cosmi in his first ever game and Charles Leno, who turns 30 next month. Joey Bosa should be in Fitz’ face all game.

Sort of, but more that Carolina’s backfield is pretty settled and then they claim an interesting back off waivers. Davis was a surprising waiver by the Bears, and a bunch of fantasy owners speculated on him hoping he’d land in Detroit or wherever and get a shot, and Carolina claimed him. Similarities with Freeman … that’s all I meant.

I agree with all of this. I know the job is done right if I do it myself.

One could just as easily say he won’t face nearly the same set of contextual circumstances with Matt Ryan instead of Daniel Jones, Ridley instead of Slayton or Shepherd, and Pitts instead of Engram.