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Everything posted by Adso

  1. I don't disagree with you Frankman; it's likely you're right about what's keeping him off the field. My point of view is just that on most waiver wires RB's with the upside factors I mentioned above are almost non-existent. Leagues vary of course, context matters, and my perspective comes from 12 man dynasty with fairly deep rosters; in a 10 man redraft I wouldn't give him a second thought (not saying that's your league, just acknowledging that league context makes a significant difference in player values). Doing the work and gaining the trust of the coaching staff doesn't translate into startable fantasy points though unless a player has the athletic ability to maximize the role they earn. One of these two things, trust vs athletic ability, is a lot easier to come by. I'd add that those same main beat writer's who have a direct like to the coach and OC concluded the article you linked with this: "Williams figures to be back in the mix soon, perhaps as early as next Monday. If the Ravens’ running game is going to be more explosive, Williams has to be involved, but he’ll need to do his part to make sure that happens." Again... I'm not planting a flag on TW being the next undrafted fantasy point goldmine... just that he's a valid lottery ticket and barely costs a prayer without the amen. Yep, fair point. So there's no real endorsement there, but certainly no indictment either.
  2. I have him in dynasty PPR, I think he's a hold for now. I wouldn't take any second for him, especially a 2022 second, and no one is going to pay a 1st I don't think. Even if they were, I think I'd only start to get interested if the pick was likely to be 1.08 or above. I think he has the athletic profile of a dominant #1 and is paired with a similarly young high upside QB. I think his path to breakout has been and will be longer than others with a similar profile who had more traditional college usage and spent less time injured.
  3. I don't think anyone is saying pick him up and start him this week, or next week, or even the week after. Like I said above, I'm proposing that he is a valid lottery ticket with enough check marks in the pro column to be roster worthy if you can make space. The stories about him sucking in general and in protection specifically seem way overblown to me is all I'm saying. I haven't seen anyone post anything supporting the spin that he is a bad RB and sucks at protection. His ypc, and yards after contact are borderline elite, given on a limited sample size, and he has shown signs of success as a check down receiver on one of the most friendly run offenses in the league. He's young, still learning, and the coaching staff has been cycling through the new roster additions to see what they've got. His competition at RB are playing themselves out of the job and a return to starting status for TW seems like a plausible outcome. Not guaranteed... plausible. If you think he's done and want to stick a fork in him by all means, do so. On the other hand, he can be had for an empty beer can right now... if he gets another shot and drops a 100yd game with a TD and a couple catches it's going to take 50% FAAB to get him. Waiting until he proves it to you is just waiting until he proves it to everyone else too.
  4. Where does this poor pass blocking narrative opinion come from? Genuinely curious. The article quoted above is pretty good. Not sure how you feel about PFF, but fwiw they try to take a fairly analytical approach to player evaluation and even if there is some noise in the machine, the difference between their evaluation of Williams and Murray in pass blocking is extreme. It seems like the Nassib sack is the source of most of the general community's bad blocking narrative as far as I can tell. Again, from this same article. Not trying to discount your opinion, it just seems like your baseline starting fact is, "Williams can't pass block." If that assumption is arguably invalid, what follows doesn't seem to hold a lot of water. I think he's still a valid lottery ticket. His competition is working themselves down the depth chart all by themselves. Not saying he's going to be a league winner, but he is cheap, seems to clearly be the highest upside option on the roster, and the running game roles are still in flux. Waiting until he has multiple games of 15+ carries and 3+ targets a game to try and pick him up isn't a shark move.
  5. If Bill goes with his shut down strategy on the opposing team's best guy that'll probably mean less targets for either Godwin or Evans as well. This could be way too much hopeful spin, but it certainly looks like a lot of things lining up in AB's favor. I need two of: ARob, Corey Davis, AB, Ty'Son Williams, and Trey Sermon... so, AB stands a pretty good chance of seeing my lineup this weekend.
  6. You got a tough one on your hands... all of those guys are in smash spots but still gambles this weekend. Think I would lean Claypool with JuJu/DJ out and Ben's probable >50 attempts vs GB... seems like he has both the highest floor and ceiling of the three. CD could ball out, but I wouldn't put it past the Jets to flatline either.
  7. I'm wondering if Davis flirts with 15 targets this weekend. Elijah Moore and Jeff Smith both out with concussions. Crowder trending towards a return but still limited in practice with a groin injury, leaving Berrios as his only real competition in the passing game, as neither the TE's or RB's are seeing more than 1-3 looks a game. Wilson is averaging 35 attempts per so far. Add in the likelihood NY that will be playing catch up in this home game the whole time and that number could be even higher. I get that it's the Jets but Davis could be just peppered with targets against his old team and it's bottom third pass D. Considering him over ARob, AB, AJB (who is probably out anyways), Ty/Son Williams, Trey Sermon, and other riff raff.
  8. Trey Sermon FULL Highlights Vs Packers (Every Play) | Niners Vs Packers Week 3
  9. I think a lot depends on your team. If you're a legit contender that 2nd is a whole lot closer to being just a really high 3rd. That's not a whole lot of draft capitol, especially given how the 2022 class is shaping up. There's also a nonzero chance that Williams runs away with this job and Dobbins/Edwards don't recover their pre-injury athleticism. Not say it's likely... but he is beginning to make a case and recovering from injuries like this is a lottery ticket.
  10. Hah, I just asked this same question here. Tough choice, but probably a good outcome either way. I'm leaning Williams.
  11. Here's a fun one... Trey Sermon vs Ty'son Williams. (PPR) Sermon, barring an extreme showing of Shanhanagins, will be the unquestioned lead back against GB's 4th worst run Def in a potentially high scoring game. Yet we have seen only one real game carry (a nice run fwiw) for the rookie and he is coming off a short recovery week from a brutal hit and concussion. The 49ers are averaging 24 RB rushes and 4 targets per game after the first two weeks. Williams, who is in an inexplicable 50% timeshare split with Murray, has done nothing but ball out the last two weeks (22/142/1 run and 5/45 on 6 targets) and ranks 3rd in the league behind Henry and Chubb in yards after contact per attempt (min 20 carries). The Ravens are on the road against the leagues worst Def in the Lions. Muddying the waters is a slew of COVID listed players on Def (less opportunity for a run based salt it away win, but maybe more work in the receiving game for TW?), Lamar Jackson with an illness (more RB carries?), and their starting left tackle out with injury (less effective run game?). The Ravens are averaging 22.5 RB rushes and 3 targets per game after the first two weeks; Williams is the only RB on the roster with a target so far this year. I'm starting one of these guys over ARob (want to see the Fields connection before plugging him in), but for the life of me, can't figure out which one. I'm leaning Williams given the matchup and seemingly higher floor, but I think Sermon has the higher upside in terms of ability, scheme, and shootout potential in this game. I'm 2-0 going up against one of the top ship contending teams and an early win here would be huge. What would you do?
  12. ARob. Big believer in ARob but at this point I've seen more Williams than I have Fields --> ARob. 15 or so RB touches (including all the RB targets if the last two weeks are worth going on) behind the Balt OL against the Lions seems safer.
  13. I don't understand the bolded at all... this backfield is an empty bloody minefield. The concussion sucks but the path couldn't be clearer to huge opportunity here. I can't imagine a wire that has a better upside option than Sermon. Totally agree on that helmet... it did enough to save 3 peoples lives.
  14. All his touches: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gdt1jMLGMJI Looks pretty good, if small. Natural catching the ball. Carter: 11/59 2/29 on 3 targets Johnson: 12/50 Coleman: 5/24
  15. So the good news is Sermon averaged 8 ypc today…
  16. I wouldn't start him unless I was desperate, but that line seems reasonable to me.
  17. I'm a huge fan of Arob, have him in dynasty, and believe in the blow up with Fields... but I think I'd take both of those offers almost as fast as I could hit the button.
  18. Anyone know if there's a cutup of all of his snaps? I couldn't find anything. I watched via redzone so I didn't get to see any of his pass pro other than the Nassib strip sack at the end. I won't quote the whole article but this is what Waldman had to say about his Pass Pro:
  19. Do you like him better than Succop? Randy would've just broken the top 12 last year if he stayed on pace for the final 3 games of the season. If that's sort've the baseline, and the attempts go up based on Burrow being back and what you said above... seems like a pretty good gamble.
  20. I like this strategy and try to use it in season if I have to, but I prefer to try to find a guy that is semi-consistent so I can set/forget. Kicker points are so random that I find streaming doesn't usually offer much advantage (or at least how I've been doing it) and the consistent guys change up fairly regularly year to year, so early in the season if you're lucky you can get a top guy off the wire. I'd be curious who people think might be on the wire with the best chance to be top 5 this year and what your strategy for picking them is. My usual guidelines are basically try to get guys from high scoring offenses that have the highest number of either dome or warm weather venues for the season. Seems to make sense, but I can't say it's ever really been successful at finding me a top guy. Right now I'm trotting Succop out there who is the posterchild for high scoring offense in a warm weather venue. The problem is... TB always gets into the end zone. If they don't score 42+ pts you're looking at a mediocre to below average score. Week 1 was a perfect example... 4XP, 1FG for 36yds. I'll take that 7.6pts if I can get it every single week, but more often than not that line is going to be 4pts or 5pts... and there isn't a ton of upside as TB12 isn't going to get blanked on endzone tries 3-4 times in a game. He was 17th in ppg in 2020 though TB was 3rd in total regular points scored. Most rankings sites have Succop in the top5 or at least 8, but he wasn't even close to that last year on a Super Bowl winning team. Of the likely-on-the-wire guys, these seem interesting to me: >McPherson (CIN): + youth, leg, potentially high scoring O - youth, outdoor stadium >Gould (SFO): +vet, high scoring O - 30/32 ppg in 2020, not going to hit the long ones, outdoor stadium >Prater (ARI): +vet, leg, high scoring O, indoor stadium - missed 7 FG in 2020 (3rd worst) >McManus (DEN): +vet, more scoring opps with Teddy, leg, mile high stadium? 11th ppg 2020 - outdoor stadium, questionable Offense Others: Nick Folk, Dustin Hopkins (on a tear 2020 weeks 9-14), Tristan Vizcaino, ??? Anyways, I'm curious what other people are thinking about potential set and forget guys on the wire... and whether anyone thinks Succop is one of those guys.
  21. I'll go ahead and jinx myself and any others who made this decision and say I'm feeling pretty good about it right now given ARob's 6/35 line tonight.
  22. Count me in too; Williams over ARob in at FLEX. Dalton's first start, away game at Rams, single coverage from Jalen Ramsey vs Williams likely opportunity of at least 15+ touches and a handful of goal line carries. I'm also starting Monty so I'm considering it a bonus to limit exposure in the Bear's first game of the season against the projected best defense in the league. Totally understand this is the kind of 'too cute' move that backfires and makes ASYS the most common acronym in FF.
  23. If this latest news about Ekeler’s hammy is smoke then 1000 running / 1000 receiving 10+ TD’s. This call is probably mockworthy by the end of the weekend. Bonus: Chubb goes for 2000 total yards and 20TD’s. ARob tops his career year going for 1500 and 15 TD’s.
  24. https://sports.yahoo.com/latavius-murray-already-eyeing-potential-140613375.html “I’m willing to discuss an opportunity with anyone interested in me. At the same time, Baltimore is a team that was impacted by injuries, has a great chance of winning & a great coaching staff. I just want to get to work.” - Latavius Murray
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