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Everything posted by Pwingles

  1. I think a better way to phrase this would be instead of arguing that the position is shallower than most people assume, its better explained by saying that the drop off is less substantial in that tier, than from the tier before, compared to rb and te (elite ones anyway). The top 5 finishers in one of my ppr leagues (hill adams diggs ridley hopkins) avg ppg 21.2 6-10 (jefferson, dk, lockett, arob, thielen) avg 16.88, so a pretty significant difference 11-15 (Ajb/evans/KA/woods/cooper) avg 16.3 16-20 (cooks/juju/marvin/ceedee/diontae) average 14.8 so another decent drop off 21-25 (robby/djm/kupp/TMC/claypool) avg 14.2 26-30 avg 13.5 wr 31-40 avg 13.2 41-50 avg 11.4 51-60 avg 10.1 Rbs 1-3 avg 23.7 4-6 avg 17.7 7-9 avg 16.1 10-12 avg 14.8 13-15 avg 13.8 16-19 avg 13.0 20-22 14.1 this average is a little misleading. Carson and D johnson missing 4 games a piece inflated their ppg TE (almost all of my leagues are 1.5 ppr for te, this is one of those) kelce 24.4 waller 21 logan thomas 13.5 hockenson 13.1 tonyan 14.5 andrews 14.1 gesicki 12.4 fant 12.9 schultz 11.2 hurst 11.1 henry 12.5 engram 10.8 So the tier break in RBs is pretty drastic just in the top 22 you lose 10 ppg advantage by having a lower tier guy. In wr you have to get into the wr50+ range to lose 10 ppg to the elite tier. TE is just kind of a mess, if you dont have a top tier option, you kind of just have the same player whether its te 4 or 14. 10 ppg disadvantage is very drastic. Even 5 is a lot. Its much more difficult in a start 3 league to be at that big of a disadvantage there. in a start 2 it would be a bit easier i suppose. Either way, I think the numbers show that it is fairly deep in terms of the actual pts being scored. Maybe the names are a little less sexy, and the situations are more ambiguous, but that is kinda how it goes when you are 1 of 3-5 pass catchers on an offense as opposed to 1 of 2 ball carriers, imo.
  2. I mean, dominating worse corners in the slot while they get more attention is okay too haha. 111 tgts mostly from the slot, and mostly without dak seems like a solid floor. I really wouldnt be shocked if he finished as good or better for fantasy as jefferson/dk/ajb etc just because the offense is so dynamic and their defense is horrendous
  3. I think it could be for a few reasons. Mismatches, as stated above. Easier to pick up the offense from the slot, less packages to overwhelm a rookie. DJM and Robby might actually just suck from the slot.
  4. Thats a really good question IMO. Not sure Id be able to get myself to add an appropriate amount for the other owner to bite. I would be most likely to find an overpay for JT tho. In a year when WFT has a new QB and the hype is out of control, youll be able to re sell gibson if you pass this year. Unless his toe falls off. I think there is an equal chance that gibson is a top 5 rb next year or the perpetual joe mixon tease every year. Either way his value shouldnt wane a ton
  5. The name of the title includes 'and why', they are so close in value and adp, you need a deciding factor. Obviously the OP doesnt prefer one or the other strongly, so I was giving them the thought process on why i would do A or B. So no, not peripheral to the topic. I was literally answering the question stated in the OP. If you think the strategy is meaningless and bad, and been discussed ad nauseam, why bother to comment? Speaking of bad strategies, trading 2 1sts for a qb in a 1 qb league is a heck of a place to start...
  6. I like the outlook for the Dal offense a lot more. For fantasy purposes they both have the possibility of being THE QB1 by the end of the year. For me it really depends on how rd 1 and 2 go. If your RB 1 and 2 are solid, you can get Cooper or Ceedee in rd 3 or 4 to make sure you get the stack and get dak in rd 5 or 6. Its a little early for tier 2 qbs but if you can get the stack there and double up on the huge pts coming from Dallas this year, its worth a bit of a reach I think. If you are not worried about the stacking element, its a toss up for me and would just take whichever is cheaper. There isnt a raven receiving option I want at ADP. So say if you went something like Tyreek or Adams in the late first, and someone like Ekelar and monty in round 2 and 3, Mahommes is prolly gone. You can wait on Rodgers or just go with Lamar there in like rd 5 or something and essentially get your RB3 who sometimes throws a TD. * edit Just looked up redraft ppr adps, per fantasy pros Lamar is 38 overall, dak is 42. so these are both 4th rounders i guess, so prolly no 5th or 6th round for these guys, but every league is different
  7. according to one source (fantasy pros), 1 qb startup adp for gibson vs herbert 21 overall (rb12) and 65 overall (qb6) Seems alright to me.
  8. I would take him over Javonte for sure and Id have to think about it with ETN. But id take Harris, chase and pitts over him. So in my mind, somewhere around the 1.04/5 range is about where he falls in terms of what singular pick would I take for Gibson.
  9. ahh yes, paraphrasing so you can get your zinger in, because if you just straight up quoted the comment, you could not get said zinger in. Good work.
  10. Would be completely driven by what the makeup of my team was and what i was trying to improve in return tbh. Theres prolly about 10-12 Rb and 12-15 WR Id move him for if I had even a reasonable backup or two If it puts me over the top.
  11. These top 7-8 guys are never going to get fair value in a 1 qb league unless its the league where herbert fetches 2 1sts. At this point in the season, assuming you had your rookie draft and any picks would be '22 or later, I would likely just hold him for any single pick. if you havent had your rookie draft yet, and we are talking in terms of '21 picks, I would hold for anything less than a top 4. I also wouldnt offer a top 4 for him if I were buying. *edit If someone offered you something like 2 mid 1sts this year, and you could turn that into Javonte and say Lawrence/Lance/Fields, I would also do that easily In terms of players, there are plenty of players id move lamar for in 1 qb depending on the makeup of my roster, and what needs i was aiming to fill.
  12. Yeah, Im referring to Gibson as a 1st. I dont think there is a league format out there that he sells for < 1st or equivalent value. Re: Herbert being good for 10+ years; Yeah, maybe. Id even call it likely. But is his ppg so high above replacement that this price is justified? You can get Tanny for a mid 2nd, and just keep Gibson and your 1st, imo. Don't read this is me hating on herbert, I agree with everything you have said about his skill. Just not sure his value is that high in a 1qb league. I guess if it were a weird scenario where Gibson was like your RB 5-6, some super stacked roster outside of the qb position, and a weekly stud qb puts you over the top, then....... I still dont add a 1st to gibson, but would prolly move him straight up.
  13. 2 firsts for a qb? I mean, thats what we are essentially talking about. Is anyone giving up 2 1sts for any qb in a 1 qb league? Maybe a couple? I mean, I dont think i could do it, but i guess someone out there would. I dont love it tho
  14. grabbed him in a few deep dynasty leagues off the wire for free i play in mostly TE prem leagues, and am deep in chiefs country. I generally grab a few lotto tickets this time of year, and a few guys to try and take advantage of the camp reports to flip later. We will see which one this kid ends up being.
  15. def just thinking that as im only in the 5th round and im already over it lol
  16. Did a start up last year, thought I had a somewhat competitive roster. Realized after some poor performances from some players that it was totally middling. So i decided after about 5-6 weeks to try and do a 1 year turnaround. 12 team, te prem ppr superflex Post draft roster; Lamar, Carr, Cousins, A. Smith, Mariota, K. Allen, Stidham Taylor, Carson, Swift, Breida, L. Perine, McFarland DJ Moore, Parker, Woods, Higgins, Edwards, G Davis, Hamler, Washington, V Jefferson, Coulter, J. Gordon Jonnu, OJ Howard, Albert O, Parham Acquired 2 extra 1's, a few extra 2's, and 3's. Had a solid draft and made some moves from week 6 until now. Here is where i sit currently; Lamar, Hurts, Lawrence, Tyrod, Mariota Taylor, Swift, Saquon, Breida, Javonte williams, Jaret patterson, kylin hill Jefferson, Lamb, Golladay, Reagor, Washington, Hamler, Bateman, fehoko, newsome, strachan, patterson , Toney, A. Rodgers, Callaway Jonnu, Herndon, OJ howard, Trautman, Albert O, Gransen *Taxi in bold Too many deals to list really, but I am really happy with this turnaround and fully expect to compete for the title this year
  17. Depends on rosters, its decent value both ways. I think JT is the best piece of this deal tho, so in a vacuum i lean that way
  18. Not sure its a correlation but, his receptions total and per game were up pretty big, and he played 3 less games. So maybe it was a slight change in the offensive approach possibly? Oline issues? Lack of a super stud WR making running lanes a little narrower? https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/travis-etienne-1.html
  19. I agree. Thats why I dont think it was as terrible as a couple others did, even tho I have an opinion on how I wouldve done the deal.
  20. Yeah I agree with all of this. It was a bit light IMO, and on every calc i looked at. Most peoples opinion on Kittle in this league is he is border line un tradeable. Not sure I agree with that sentiment, but he is a top asset in this format, and its light by a 1st or equivalent in my eyes. Im not that high on Damien Harris, or any pats RB so he doesnt really add much to the deal IMO, but I guess he is a flex play some weeks. Ultimately this looks like one of those 1 and 4 for 2 and 3 deals, in terms of the order of the asset value. They are common and usually on the surface look to be bad. This one is not great, but not worth the commotion it caused lol
  21. Yes I think its fine. I see both sides. I prefer Kittle as well because he is at this point the best piece in the deal, but there isnt anything especially egregious imo. His team had holes everywhere and ETN is almost automatically his RB2 after Mixon after this deal, and tbh, Pittman might be an every week wr3/flex player on his squad at this point. Guy getting kittle was champ last year and the uproar was mostly about giving his team more top tier assets in return for what was depth on the champs team.
  22. 12 team superflex te prem ppr, not involved just curious what you guys think since it stirred up quite the storm in our group chat Team A got : ETN, Pittman Team B got: Kittle, D. Harris
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