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Phenomena

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Everything posted by Phenomena

  1. This is fundamentally not true. Why do people keep saying it? If he plays and gets hurt he gets nothing long-term. He avoids a huge change of injury to get more guaranteed money. Would you rather have $14.5M guaranteed with a 70% chance of another $30M ... or get $35M guaranteed 100% of the time? Give me the $35M. I don't blame him at all.
  2. "Squirty" McJones!!!!!! Dude's lightning. Love it.
  3. Oh man ... what a turn of events. My first instinct was to laugh but now I feel pretty bad for him =( Being lazy and late on the waiver wire may save me - didn't grab him in any of my leagues.
  4. Starting with full confidence. Carry me to a title Fournette!!!! IND / BUF / IND /MIA four of the last six weeks. If he's back to form could be a big difference maker end of year.
  5. Trading Rodgers... lmfao. I wouldn't take 10 first-round picks. You'd spend every one of those 10 trying to find another elite QB - and likely still wouldn't get one. This thread is off the rails. Go get some fresh air, guys.
  6. How you gonna come out of the woodwork after two months with a two-word tweet and spell one of the two words wrong? Lmao.
  7. Pretty much. They'd have to win out. Too many lost opportunities, getting screwed by the officials, and crippling amount of injuries this year. 7/11 of the starting defense from pre-season was knocked out by end of the game last night. Usually #2 evens out but this could be the third game it cost the Packers this year. That ejection was laughably dumb and the personal foul on what should have been running into the kicker was brutal. That said, the defense has showed flashes of dominance when every starter has been on the field. If they had Martinez, Ryan, King, Alexander, Wilkerson, and Haha all on the field last night I think they win that game.
  8. Through three quarters the Packers held Brady & Co. (in Foxborough) to 17 points. Any team in the league would take that. I thought the defense played very well, especially given they were missing half of their starters from the start of the year. Ryan, Wilkerson, Haha, White, King, ALexander... list goes on. Too many injuries this year for the Pack. Trading away secondary depth is a nail in the coffin.
  9. Questions like this make me sad that most fans (even ardent fantasy players) have little respect for the complexities of running a team and how those need to be factored into cap space & draft picks. You can't fully understand today's game without understanding these dynamics. Of course that's a huge consideration. He's almost a shoe-in to get a free 3rd round pick (at worst 4th) due to the contract size he will sign. Those picks are incredibly value to any organization but moreso to teams that have to draft and develop because they are picking late every year (those with good QBs already).
  10. Yea, this isn't basketball. These guys are 1 of 60 on the roster. They don't call the shots.
  11. "Ha Ha" basically said as much earlier this season that Green Bay appeared to have no intention of signing him long-term. He sounded resigned that this would be his last year with the Packers. I'm not sure how to feel about this one. He's clearly a talented player but long-term Safety salaries seem polarized - extensions nowadays are usually $12M+/year as a top play-maker or you're making $5-6M/year as a filler. Joyner, Thomas, Collins, and Mathieu are all probably going to get more money than Clinton-Dix. So it feels like Clinton-Dix is at the bottom of the top tier and that's not a great price-point for team. It will most likely take $9M+/year to retain him. Do you want to spend top money to retain someone who has played at a good-but-not-elite level? I don't think so ... especially with the huge influx of secondary talent. King and Alexander look like special players. The Packers might be able to get away with less-than-stellar safety play and use that money somewhere else (perhaps a badly needed additional pass rusher). If they don't extend Ha Ha I'm not sure what they plan to do with the cap space. They'll have 20(!) players hitting free agency but nearly $45M in cap space, which is a lot given the mega-extension for Rodgers and free agency deal with Graham. Cobb and Matthews are probably gone ... they'll re-sign Gilbert and Allison, possibly Wilkerson if he heals up ... but those guys aren't going to cost that much. What else are you going to do with that cap space? The only core player whom has a contract up in the next two years is Daniels, and he's a sub-$10M guy. They'll probably extend him next off-season. Still a lot of cap space available after that. Seems like Clinton-Dix could easily fit. They must have another plan... and I'm guessing it involves holding pat on all the recent secondary picks and paying for some better pass rushers.
  12. I'm not a big fan of coaching changes unless the environment has turned toxic. Coaching talent at this level is relatively interchangeable (unless you're Jeff Fischer). Players make the difference and right now the Browns have terrible players. Then again, they've had terrible players since Jim Brown. Talent >>> coaching. Any idiot could have coached the Seahawks to a title after accumulating all that defensive talent then hitting on Wilson. Similarly, any coach in the league could be 8-0 with that Rams roster.
  13. I've never been so mad watching the end of a game. I remember thinking "why the f*** is he bringing it out?" ... we'd get it at the 25 with 2:05 left and gain precious seconds as well as another stopped timeout with the two minute warning. Made no sense to me at all. And then he fumbles it. I'm so livid about the stupidity of the play. I don't mind losing to better teams but I get really pissed when it happens because of horrific decisions from players trying to be heroes that should know better. Amazingly stupid play from Montgomery. UNSURPRISINGLY, McCarthy calls him out because he went against coaching advice. Any pee-wee coach would know the right play is to take the touch-back and give the ball to Rodgers. Would not be surprised at all if he's cut or severely punished (game inactives) after that.
  14. Thomas seems like one of the most likely trade target candidates in the league. Sanders and Sutton have both ran circles around him. Thomas makes way too much given his production and is an unrestricted free agent next year. I doubt they'd get more than a 4th in 2020 for a compensation pick for letting him walk (assuming he can get a decent contract in free agency) so it's a no brainer if someone offers a 4th rounder for the 2019 draft. They're not winning anything this year with Case Keenum. Why would a backup QB impact trading an aging WR?
  15. Nearly 40% of first-round players are long-term busts. First-round picks are only insanely valuable IF the player ends up to be very good because you can lock him in for five years at a low rate. But let's not pretend it's a given the Cowboys would have used it wisely. Cooper is at-worst a solid contribute ... at-best he has shown pro bowl talent. It's not as horrific of a trade as others have suggested. I wouldn't have made it but it's definitely got the chance to pay off.
  16. Why do you think you're smarter than NFL coaches? McCarthy has been on record stating several times after the 2013 season (where he gave Lacy 320 touches) that he'll never again do that again to a running back. You can't run them into the ground during the regular season and expect them to be golden for the playoffs. Unless, perhaps, you have some incredibly elite talent like Zeke or Bell that have amazing elusiveness and can withstand the beating better. The Packers don't have that elite talent so they have to hodgepodge it a little better.
  17. What are the odds of your house burning down? <1% What are the odds of the top-5 running backs retaining their value year after year? 70%, maybe? The odds you would need to lay thereby increase dramatically. David Johnson is healthy but his team sucks so his perceived value is smaller now than it was two months ago. Dalvin Cook and Fournette are hurt. AP went from a top tier RB to barely touchable after belting his son. Jamaal Charles never regained his explosiveness after tearing an ACL. It happens to the top guys every single year (and it's not always just injury related). It's pretty evident that a 30% chance of a severe drop in value is very reasonable. Giving up $8M to ensure an additional $22M seems fairly reasonable to me given historical changes in value for top tier running backs. I think his decision to sit out is a lot closer financially / expected value than most people are realizing.
  18. Why do people keep saying this? He's not "leaving money on the table" by not fully playing this year. Playing induces a risk that could reduce future earnings if he gets hurt. It's a calculated risk to not play this year to preserve more guaranteed money in the future. You guys act like he would 100% get the money this year AND a big contract. Not playing this year is like a reverse insurance policy. We don't say that we "lost" $1,000 last year because our homeowner's policy didn't pay out. We paid a risk premium IN CASE something would have happened. Bell is essentially not getting paid to not take the risk. It's a calculated move that certainly has potential payouts. Not realizing those negative payoffs is the cost of not playing this year. We can't fully say it's costing him $8M because we don't know the odds of him getting hurt vs how that would affect his future income. I'm inclined to believe his lost value is not $8M but we don't know that for certain. We do know it is millions less than that because running backs get hurt every year. The first-round bust rate alone is at least 25%. And wear and tear could be worth millions more. He might only be giving up an "expected value" of a few million... which is pretty low to secure a potentially $40M+ guaranteed contract like Gurley received.
  19. This has been a bad year for the waiver wire. Lindsay has been the most productive pick and he's not even a top-50 redraft pick ROS. That's a little odd. I would not hesitate to burn waiver priority for someone like Doug Martin or Jalen Richard and hope one of them is useful.
  20. Richard is the obvious one if you're in a PPR league. OAK is tanking fast and they're going to be playing catch-up the rest of the year. Who fills the passing game gap? Seems like a big bump to Martavis Bryant?
  21. Hope so ... need 3 points from him tonight for a win!
  22. I will be trading for DEN in any league where I can give up a bench player. They're not going to be startable for 4 of the next 5 games (maybe all five ... Chiefs, Texans, Steelers, Chargers, Bengals) ... but then have 49ers, Browns, Raiders during the playoffs. Yahtzee!
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