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Louche

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About Louche

  • Birthday 09/04/1979

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    Cincinnati Bengals

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  1. Without accounting for league format I prefer Sutton straight up over Engram. I own Everett everywhere and I'm intrigued by his "breakout" this year as well but he's a small part of this trade. He's a nice prospect but I'd say the value on that side of the trade is 90% Sutton, 10% Everett, 0% Walker. I don't think the Sanders trade to the 49ers impacts Sutton's value much. Sutton was already getting the targets and he was the main guy, it might even be harder for him to produce now with Sanders gone as defenses can focus more on shutting down Sutton and the offense might be very low volume and unproductive. But Sutton profiles perfectly as a potential elite dyno WR with a high TD upside. His development will depend a lot on who he has to play with though. If he was with the Saints he would be a monster. With Flacco and Vic Fangio and nobody to draw attention away from him he might never reach his ceiling. He should be a productive WR2 type anyways but top 5 WR might be difficult. Hopefully Elway can finally find a good QB at some point or get fired. However...your league doesn't use flex spots? You're only starting 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE on offense? If so that might drive up the price of top 5 TEs as the drop from an elite TE to a low level starter in an 18 team league will be quite steep. Finding two good WR options weekly should be an easier task. In this type of format I would think that WR is slightly devalued. Having an elite RB becomes crucial and having an elite TE will also offer a big advantage as those positions are way more shallow than WR. 18 teams is deep but 5 offensive starters plus a kicker is shallow (90 weekly starters) I typically play in 12-16 team leagues with 9-10 offensive starters (appx 130 weekly starters). As in any league with shallow roster requirements it becomes more about elite production and less about depth. Engram is a safer choice for elite production than Sutton/Everett so the offer seems fair to me given league format.
  2. I don't think it's much of a long shot at all that they change to a nickel base. Patriots are already playing a big nickel base and you have plenty of teams that are moving to schemes where they have third safety roles who play 500-600 snaps in the box - for some teams this role can be taken by players who are not designated as safeties, like Mathieu or Shaq Thompson, but it's a staple of most NFL defenses and you see more teams making moves in that direction. Killebrew in DET, Tartt in SF, Obi to OAK, Hyde to BUF, Pryor to CLE, Sorensen in KCC. I think it's only a question of time before we see more teams going with a big nickel base and only run out heavier formations in short yardage. It's the direction both the college and pro game has gone. In college you even have a lot of small nickel base and you see teams moving towards a dime base. It's all about stopping the passing game and defeating the run by numbers in the box and speed rather than bulky MIKE and SAM backers. But even if teams don't go to a nickel base, those 50-60% of snaps in the box are so much more valuable for IDP than 'regular' safety snaps that you can easily have a productive IDP on your hands even if the player is only playing a part-time role. Ideally you want a cover 3 strong safety, but after those guys are off the board I'm more intrigued by a part time big nickel than what I am with a cover 2 "strong" safety who might play more snaps but is going to be away from the action half of the time. And SEA have the perfect personnel to move to a big nickel base.
  3. I've been reading the coffee leaves in Seattle and I'm wondering if McDougald might get an interesting role this season. I think they might be going to a base big nickel 4-2-5 cover 3 with the SS and Big Nickel up in the box defending the flats. Last season they used Jeremy Lane as a nickel corner slash nickel SAM, but they didn't seem ecstatic about his performance there, and with Snead going down with injury they are likely to move Lane outside to start the season. They signed McDougald, an in the box safety with cover skills who Schneider talked about as one of the highest rated defenders on their FA board, and drafted box safety / nickel corner Delano Hill in the 3rd(!), while letting their SAM go in FA. It really makes all the sense in the world for them to move into a big nickel base, which could mean that they would be in nickel 85-90% of the time. They have fast and rangy LBs and the best centerfield safety in the league, with physical CBs on the outside and a deep and talented DL rotation. A big nickel base would allow them to have an 8 man front on every play and stay very aggressive on the ball with a lot of opportunity to disguise and throw blitz packages. There's been some talk about other teams "figuring out" the SEA defense so it seems like the perfect timing to shake things up a little. They drafted a box safety in the 3rd so McDougald doesn't have a guaranteed grip on that job, but I think there's a pretty good chance that the veteran will get the first shot. As someone else eluded to SEA isn't typically the prime spot for IDP production, but...if he gets a close to everydown role with plenty of time in the box he should be very startable.
  4. There is risk with all RBs but CJA has a very short resume to be priced as a mid/low dynasty RB1, and he only got an opportunity last season after both Ball and Hillman got injured. Hillman had a couple 100+ yard games as well last season but everyone seems to totally overlook him. The smart money is obviously on CJA to be and remain the starter, but I would have much preferred if his backups were something like Shonn Greene and Jacquizz Rogers where there was no doubt that CJA was THE guy. I don't have anything against CJA but he's going in the 4th round of dynasty startups and at that price I'm uncomfortable with the "risk". I would rather target other positions and get one of the more proven top tier RBs or target guys like J-Stew, Gore, Martin and Spiller that go much later. When considering ADP I would rather take a shot at Ball in the 14th round than CJA in the 4th. However, if I picked up CJA from waivers a year ago I'm laughing all the way to the bank, and if my team is loaded but short on RBs I will consider trading for CJA at his current price...but in a startup I'm very happy to let someone else take him. So then you are just basically saying you don't value very many RBs in the top 4 rounds??? If so fine, but that isn't really a CJ thing, it's a RB thing. No, that's not what I'm saying. I'll consider paying up for Lacy, Bell, Gurley, Murray, Lynch and Foster at their ADP, depending on how I want to build my team. But I think CJA is too expensive for a UDFA who has played half a season in the league, two young RBs behind him with a stronger background, and a new coaching staff and blocking scheme. That's just too much of a gamble for me in those early rounds.
  5. There is risk with all RBs but CJA has a very short resume to be priced as a mid/low dynasty RB1, and he only got an opportunity last season after both Ball and Hillman got injured. Hillman had a couple 100+ yard games as well last season but everyone seems to totally overlook him. The smart money is obviously on CJA to be and remain the starter, but I would have much preferred if his backups were something like Shonn Greene and Jacquizz Rogers where there was no doubt that CJA was THE guy. I don't have anything against CJA but he's going in the 4th round of dynasty startups and at that price I'm uncomfortable with the "risk". I would rather target other positions and get one of the more proven top tier RBs or target guys like J-Stew, Gore, Martin and Spiller that go much later. When considering ADP I would rather take a shot at Ball in the 14th round than CJA in the 4th. However, if I picked up CJA from waivers a year ago I'm laughing all the way to the bank, and if my team is loaded but short on RBs I will consider trading for CJA at his current price...but in a startup I'm very happy to let someone else take him.
  6. I just finished a 14 team superflex IDP startup where he went 5.05, but it's a contract league so owners play with a shorter window. Normal startups are much more youth driven these days. Rookie late 1st is normally around 80-100 overall in non-IDP, depending on how early/late you draft, and Robinson goes in the 35-40 range so if someone offered him to me for a late 1st I'd view that as a lot of free value.
  7. Exactly. Hes prolly worth a late 1st in a 12 teamer imo. His ADP is way higher. He's going in the 4th round of IDP startups, borderline 3rd round in non-IDP. That puts him in the rookie 1.04-1.05 range so it would be exactly on current value if it was a '15 pick.
  8. Ok, so this one really isn't the worst offer ever in the history of forever, but I found the sales pitch pretty hilarious. Charles Sims + Drew Brees for 1.02 + Alex Smith It's actually 1.04 in double player copy, but to simplify things let's call it 1.02. Gurley went 1.01 so my pick here would be Amari Cooper. Here's the pitch: "I am all set at RB, and looking to draft a WR with this pick. Sims for Melvin Gordon seems like a pretty good deal for you, if you are looking to draft a RB. Sims is a year more advanced, and already looks like the starting feature back in Tampa."
  9. Lol. Cutting out burgers and ice cream....?! No wonder he was 243 at last year's OTAs.
  10. Considering his age, who would be ahead of him? Charles, Lacy I suppose but who else? I guess Gurley and maybe Gordon. I wouldn't pick Lynch or Foster ahead of him as they have only 1 or 2 more years. Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down. You know it's ok to change your mind, right? Lol. This. Getting too entrenched in your own opinions is one of the most dangerous things in FF. Fantasy football is about reacting and shaping your opinion based on all new information we learn about players, and we know a hell of a lot more about Hill now than what we did when he was coming out of LSU. I find that many owners, and many experts, tend to rely too much on their initial take on a player. We're not playing "who-was-the-most-right-about-his-talent-coming-out-of-college-and-was-able-to-stick-with-that-opinion-even-though-all-evidence-suggests-otherwise" football.
  11. He's got plenty of fans out there. He's consistently going in the 3rd and 4th round in dynasty startups this year so if you are not able to get any value for him you are either in a very boring league or you're a really bad salesperson. I can imagine it is hard to get good value for any TE in a shallow roster dynasty.
  12. Chris Matthews for 1.07 (Agholor, Perriman, Parker, DGB, Abdullah available)
  13. Philbin is such a master motivator.
  14. a contrarian opinion for sure. But he is a good young QB1. I'm in a 14 team 2QB startup where Tanny went 2.04 and Cam went 2.10.
  15. Are you sure? Did those guys have multiple years remaining on their deals at the time? The new money in this contract is $19.25 million per year. According to Over The Cap this is $250k more per year than Kaep, and nearly $10 mill more in guaranteed money. Dalton signed for $16 mill per year with very limited guarantees. The fully guaranteed money percentage were: Tannehill 27.9% Kaep 11.4% Dalton 17.7% Kaep's contract is a bit different in that there is a series of escaltors and de-escalators as well as health based incentives. But all in all the Tannehill contract seems to be significantly better than what Dalton and Kaep were able to land.
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