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Everything posted by btemp

  1. “This is his third year [in the offense], man, it shouldn’t be a problem,” Arians said. “And at times it is. It’s just attention to detail like missing that blitz. But he is a great runner. Caught the ball well. I would like to see him run for the first down. But yeah, I mean his mind is fine, it’s just his play isn’t as good as it should be.” It's not just anecdotal. By the Bucs staff and analysts it's been repeatedly mentioned as an issue. From day one.
  2. Those takes are grossly off. I've watched every one of RoJo's snaps, he's been called out by Arians and Koetter for his pass pro, and couldn't catch a cold This is so obvious. If PFF is saying otherwise, their 16-year older intern doesn't know what he's seeing. But there's an even simpler argument - Ronald Jones isn't used as much in pass pro and passing situations. That's part of why his snap count went down as the year progressed. He had only 30% of offensvie snaps in the post-season and wasn't even TARGETED for a pass. They brought in Bernard because both players suck at pass pro and in pass catching. As did Lesean McCoy (at pass pro).
  3. First Brady will have a lot of influence on this decision. Second, as terrible as Fournette is at pass blocking (and he's terrible) Jones is worse. And as mediocre/bad as Fournette is as a receiver (see: INT), Jones is worse. My outside the box guess is that as Bernard gets more comfortable, and if he can show anything as a runner, he'll take over more snaps. He's the style of player the Bucs should've grabbed last year (aka can pass block and catch). We'll see.
  4. Is this mismanagement by the Broncos? You know that if one guy gets Covid and is in direct contact with others, you're hooped. That's why some teams talked about (I don't know if they did it) keeping one emergency QB isolated.
  5. You have to think like a coach, no a personnel guy. If CMC says he's fine and the medical checks out, you want your best guys on the field. You want to win games, you want to end the season on a positive note. You're right as a personnel guy, but most coaches don't think that way.
  6. That may be true fantasy-wise, but it's not what's happening on the field. Teams have been scheming to take Evans away all season and he's been the one that's consistently double-covered. Even without Evans seeing a lot of targets, he's the WR other teams are most worried about.
  7. But functionally you're doing the same thing. Getting a 10 yard DPI call = a 10 yard catch. In football terms, it's exactly the same thing. The much, much weirder thing is awarding points for simply making a catch. A reception is absolutely valueless in the NFL only yards (and TDs) matter. Simply catching a ball is not a positive play, it's catching a ball for positive yardage. A reception for -4 yards is a negative play, a catch for 0 yards is a worthless play as well. The value in a catch is in the yardage (or points) it generates on the field. How is awarding points for DPI change fantasy when PPR is even further removed from football?
  8. No... you wouldn't give a TD because a TD isn't awarded... You'd give whatever that yardage was. If it was a DPI on the 1 yard line, you'd give 1 receiving yard.
  9. Simplest is 1 yard PI = 1 yard receiving. Because functionally, that's what happens. A 40 yard DPI call = a 40 yard catch. They generate exactly the same outcome.
  10. Arians is so full of ####. Evans was not frequently open, in large part because Leftwich/Arians scheme like it's 2009. They keep Evans to a restricted route tree almost 100% playing the X receiver role, limiting his looks. You can see a breakdown of last week here: https://www.pewterreport.com/bucs-briefing-was-mike-evans-really-open/
  11. I've liked this idea. A WR who beats his man and gets tackled 20 yards downfield is accomplishing the same result as a completion. Generating DPI's is almost as valuable as a catch (only slightly less because there's no run after). Ideally forcing DBs to manhandle you would be rewarded.
  12. Here's a question: Pollard has looked better than Zeke all season in this offense. He's much more dynamic as a pass catcher and actually has a significantly better PFF grade. I've personally never been very high on Elliott, I think he's severely overhyped playing behind one of the best OLs in the league, a very good young QB, and because he's a Cowboy. I've always thought Elliott was only an above average back in probably the best situation in the NFL over his career. I think we're seeing the fruits of that now. Anyways, is it possible that Pollard actually delivers more value than Zeke down the stretch should he go in?
  13. The question I'm curious on if its MchNichols (who before this season has looked terrible and bounced around a number of teams) or Foreman now that he's back?
  14. The point is that Dallas isn't going to supplant anyone on that roster as soon as they're healthy. Yes, 2 TDs is good. But that fantasy production is ready for pure regression and if he's not a good player there's not much value in redraft once one of Carson and Homer and Hyde return. There's also not much value in dynasty based on his production. Maybe you ride him for another week if Carson doesn't come back. But he didn't do a single thing that was impressive thus his future is dim. Contrast this to handcuffs or valuable backups like Pollard, Snell, Edmonds, Davis, Gus Edwards, etc. Dallas' only path to production is zero competition. If he doesn't have competition great. If he does... well, he'd better become a drastically better play than he was the last two weeks.
  15. While he had a productive fantasy day with 2 TDs, he looked incredibly mediocre. He never got more yardage than was blocked, didn't display great vision, and wasn't able to make anyone miss. Like last week where he whiffed on a pass block that got Wilson hit, it appears he missed on a run call and went to pass block instead on the goal line. He had 41 yards on 18 rushes and 17 yards on 5 receptions, so 23 touches and 59 yards. That accurately sums up how he looked.
  16. Evans isn't at 100% and hasn't been the entire season. Arians said he's at 80% right now. The concern is he's unhealthy the entire season and is completely TD dependent. Teams are still doubling him a lot, that might change which would open it up more for Evans. Also, Evans won't play in the slot. They tried that, he's not good at it. He doesn't have the skillset. Evans, as good as he is, isn't a versatile WR. He's a big bodied, get vertical type, he's not a crisp route runner.
  17. One thing I'm wondering about: Has Pollard's value as a Lotto taken a serious hit? With that OL and no Prescott, does Pollard have much value? In a strict sense he does if Elliott is injured. But with an OL that currently has only 1/5 starters, is there much upside there?
  18. It's an easy answer to me to go for it. 1) The data backs it up 2) The Vikings were running the ball down the Seahawks throat 3) Just the simple logic of it. Where would you put your money - stopping Russell Wilson from driving 90 yards with 4 down football or getting 1 yard vs the Seahawks D? I'd put my money on getting that 1 yard every day of the week. Process>Results. The Vikings had the right process, just unlucky with the result. It happens.
  19. My thoughts: 1) Brady will look better than this. It was a tough defense, no preseason, first totally new offense. Yes, he's had new OCs like Charlie and McDaniels but the verbiage has largely stayed the same and the internal concepts I would guess didn't change much. 2) Brady's upside is capped by Arians scheme & playcalling. Arians hasn't had a good offense since 2016. He has outdated pass concepts and heavily out-dated run concepts. A great comparison is Dirk Koetter, who shares a similar scheme. It's very boom-bust with a high turnover rate. With good matchups the offense will be productive but the right defense will shut it down. Brady won't realise the potential of his weapons, but he has enough weapons he will be productive. 3) The real concern is Brady's decision making. Both INTs were bad reads by him, and he had others where he was lucky they weren't intercepted. But a lot of this is likely due to overthinking in a totally new system. How much is system and how much age? Don't know. How much will he improve within the system? Don't know. 4) Brady still has the arm to make 90% of the throws he needs to make. But the ability to make quick reads and deliver given his age and new system is the question. He will look better than Week 1 though.
  20. I'm not sold on Fournette being a better back, they're slightly different players (although both suck at pass blocking, don't contribute much in the passing game, and are inefficient runners). My concern with Fournette is that he's been such a volume guy. His fantasy relevance has come from his ability to get a high number of carries. Even if he supplants Jones, I don't think he gets those volume opportunities in Tampa. And ultimately, I agree they will be limited by the scheme. Also the OL (although it's less a factor than the scheme). The Bucs have a mis-match of blocking types (zone guys like Marpet and Jensen with man-on-man blockers like Wirfs and Smith).
  21. As a Bucs fan, I've watched every one of Jones snaps. Did you watch him Sunday? He's still struggling to find a hole. When well blocked and with an easy read he'll put his foot in the ground and gets some yards. Jones has below average vision, receiving, and pass blocking ability. His only utility in the passing game is with screens, he can't run any other routes well (although he has some value in the screen game). The idea "He could've had 100 all purpose yards" ignores what he did with his touches - which is very little. He averaged 3.9 yards a carry which accurately reflects how he looked. As Dr. Octopus said, he had one nice run. But he also had a few where he missed the hole or failed to move through it quickly enough. I've been saying this since his rookie year. People are holding out hope for a player that doesn't exist and by midseason will likely be supplanted by Fournette.
  22. While I don't like Fournette or Rojo as RBs (both are bad pass blockers and really inefficient runners), they're upside is further capped by Arians scheme. With Arizona, his teams were 23rd, 31st, 8th, 18th, and 30th in rushing yardage (Bucs were 24th last year). The one good season was that magical 2015 season. His scheme is vanilla and lacks all the motions, pulls, zones, etc. of strong running schemes like those run by Shanahan, Reid or McVay. It's always been a weakness of his offenses. Because of that mediocre backs like Rojo and Fournette have their upside further capped.
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