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TS Garp

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Everything posted by TS Garp

  1. I actually wondered if White could be a surprise cut. Doubtful but one never knows. Appreciate your take.
  2. We see this one differently. I think Shanahan, like Belichick and other coaches, wants to use some version of RBBC. If Mostert goes down, I don't think Sermon takes over the backfield (as Javonte would with a Gordon injury). i think some combination of Gallman (who was quietly solid last year), Hasty, Wilson (back this year) and even Mitchell would be used as complements to Sermon. Very hard for me to see Sermon getting more than 175-200 carries and he also has to contend with the likely possibility of a QB who will vulture a share of GL touches. It's an environment for real football success but not for a fantasy smash, in my opinion.
  3. I've been hoping his ADP would really dip but I'm actually not seeing that. Still late 4th or so.
  4. Right, I think we're saying the same thing. I think he has a couple of paths: 1) Gordon gets hurt, 2) Gordon gets completely outplayed and largely marginalized to the tune of an 80/20 split and 3) they run so much that it's a 60/40 split in Javonte's favor but there's still a lot to go around. Of course, it's also possible that Gordon is good, stays healthy and they split very evenly (or even 60/40 Gordon). But I think that's largely baked into Javonte's ADP right now. It's just much easier for me to see his path to hitting his ceiling than it is for Etienne, Sermon, and Carter right now.
  5. I've actually been seeing his ADP dip into the 16th round and beyond in best ball and I'm buying there. I think the issue, as I see it, is that this defense is going to be pretty bad and I think they may have to throw more than they'd probably like to. It's possible that Reynolds or Fitzpatrick are the beneficiaries but I think Firkser will get targets. agree that you can't plug him into the Jonnu role. In general, I'm assuming a decrease in efficiency but an increase in volume for the passing offense. I can see something like 55/600/6.
  6. Interesting. I actually think he's (still) underdrafted. It will almost surely be a committee to start but there should be a lot to go around and Boone is out. This defense is going to be really good and I think they want to win by controlling the ball and playing great D. Looking at their schedule, it's possible they're forced into shootouts against the Chiefs x2 and Chargers x2 and possibly the Rams and Cowboys. But I think Williams should positive game scripts in these games: Giants Jets Ravens Jaguars Steelers Raiders x2 WFT Lions Bengals (this could go either way) It's obviously hard to know how these things will play out but my point is that I think they'll run early and often. Gordon isn't going anywhere but he's already been banged up and I don't think he's an insurmountable hurdle, by any stretch. When you add up talented rookie rb the team traded up for and seems ahead of the curve + strong defense + conservative coaching staff + solid schedule, you get a player with SOTD potential, in my opinion. I think the path is clearer than it is for Etienne and Sermon.
  7. Great info, as always. Where do you see JJ Taylor fitting in? Is he a ST guy unless White gets hurt? I've been intrigued by him but hard to see a backfield role as things stand.
  8. Good post. But the one caveat I'd give is that Allen and Williams tend to get banged up here and there. Johnson and Guyton will operate largely as vertical threats so if something were to happen to Allen or Williams, I think you'd see Palmer get some of that work. In the meantime, I still think he'll get some work, particularly in the intermediate area. Agree with you that his ceiling this year seems capped without injury but he's fast and physical and I think there will be a role for him.
  9. Correct. He's built like a RB. A blazing fast RB.
  10. Thanks. Not sure I agree with the logic but it's good to have the explanation.
  11. I never understand why there aren't more players available . No Donovan Peoples-Jones, no Josh Palmer, no Anthony McFarland, etc.
  12. I agree with you. It's also hard to overstate how bad Reagor was last year. Maybe he gets it together in Year 2 but nothing from last year seems to support that. I believe Fuller/Parker/Preston/Gesicki/Gaskin is more competition than Reagor/Fulgham/Goedert/Ertz/Sanders, even if the Dolphins throw more, which I'm sure they will.
  13. We can agree to disagree. The Lions should actively be trying to hoard picks and increase their chances of having the 1st pick in the 2022 draft. This would do both. Yes, it's brutal but it also works - many smart teams have done it, including the Browns and look at them now.
  14. Not sure if he's been mentioned in this thread already but has Duke Johnson been signed?
  15. Because they're not going anywhere this year - they will be lucky to win 5 games. They're playing for 2023 and beyond. If you can get a 3rd rounder for Williams, it's a no-brainer.
  16. Man, I feel terrible for Akers. What a bummer. McVay has to be kicking himself over letting Malcolm Brown walk for nothing. I think you'll see the Rams trade for one of the Texans many RB's - David Johnson seems like a good fit. Lions should really deal Jamaal Williams there but can't imagine they will.
  17. In looking at this projection again, I'd probably bump it up to 150 carries, 670 yards and 5 td's. With that said, I'm still trying to envision the scenario where Sermon pays off his current ADP which continues to rise. I think Shanahan wants the running game to feature a speed element, which they have with Mostert. Mitchell will likely be used exclusively as a kick returner to start the season but he's a burner and if Mostert goes down (not unlikely), I think you'll see Mitchell (also a capable receiver) start to pick up some of those carries. Beyond that, Deebo And Aiyuk will likely steal 2-4 rushing TD's and then you have Lance, who is not only a good runner but also a very physical one in the Josh Allen/Cam Newton mold who will almost certainly steal goal line TD's. If Jimmy G somehow keeps the job all year, that would certainly help Sermon's case but that doesn't seem likely. I suppose it's possible that Mostert gets hurt and Shanahan turns over 80% of the running game to Sermon but that would be a surprise. This isn't a judgment on Sermon's talent; it just seems that between the 49ers depth and the fact that you have Lance/Deebo/Aiyuk taking rushing TD's, I'm not sure there's a significant fantasy friendly role for a power runner here, even one as promising as Sermon.
  18. When you say goal line questions, do you mean because of Hurts or do you think Howard could steal goal line carries? Hurts isn't a big guy like Josh Allen or Cam Newton. I actually don't see him taking much goal line work (as Lamar hasn't generally taken it in Baltimore). Howard could be another matter, if he makes the team, but I would still assume Sanders is the favorite.
  19. James Robinson 2020 and CMC 2019 would like a word.
  20. Yeah, I was aware of the low (non-existent) TD total. Interesting comp on Caldwell (RIP). You've forgotten more about the Patriots than I know so take my speculation with a grain of salt but it seems to me that Agholor will be used as a deep threat. Bourne is a very good blocker and I think his targets will be limited. He's yet to see more than 50 targets in a season in 4 seasons. It feels like Meyers could be the favorite on the short and underneath routes. I don't think Henry and Smith would interfere too much with that. Obviously, a trade could reset everything, however.
  21. Have to think his ADP rises but right now he seems absurdly cheap for someone who has a chance to give you 75/950 with a small handful of td's (I'm thinking 3-5). As I said earlier, I think the ceiling is capped but the floor is very solid.
  22. That's fair on Hurts. The optimistic case is that he got a first round WR who should help and the line should be vastly improved with players healthy, so he won't be running for his life as much. Also, his new OC did good things for Herbert last year. I will note that Hurts plays Washington twice in the fantasy playoffs, which is pretty brutal. I like him more than you do but won't be reaching for him, either.
  23. Stafford's ADP feels pretty appropriate to me. He's going right after Wilson, Herbert and Hurts and in the same vicinity as Brady, Tannehill, and Burrow. Agree that there are reasons to be very optimistic about him. Hurts is ranked that high because of the rushing upside. He rushed for 354 yards and 3 td's in 4 starts. He could have 1000 yards and 10 td's over a full season. The passing stats are the question mark but if he hits the rushing numbers I just mentioned, he doesn't need to do a ton in the passing game to be a top 10 qb. As I mentioned in another thread, his range of potential outcomes is as wide as any player this year but the ceiling is definitely there. Speaking of wide ranges of outcomes, I agree with you that Winston is absolutely worth a gamble near the end of drafts. Things could really work out for him but the downside has to be acknowledged, too. If Payton loses patience, he could be benched and never heard from him again. However, that's already baked into his cost and then some, so I like him a lot as an end of draft flyer.
  24. In thinking it through, I definitely feel comfortable with this group above Mixon: CMC Cook Henry Kamara Saquon Zeke Chubb Ekeler Taylor Gibson Jones Harris I rate Mixon pretty evenly with Akers, CEH, and Sanders. He's right in that mini tier for me, and I'll have to think more about how I rank them. I think there's a drop off after that to Swift, Dobbins, Carson, and Montgomery.
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