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Posts posted by oldmanhawkins

  1. I might be on an island here, and I haven't read this whole thread so forgive me if this has been said.  

    As a society we agree that violence of any kind shouldn't be tolerated (this aggression will not stand, man).  We agree that violence against women is worse than violence against men. However, we don't take notice of the difference between assault with and without the intent to injure? In my opinion, both the push and the kick and the push were of the GTFO variety.  Hunt was clearly very wrong in his actions. But I don't think it is correct to categorize his actions as "violence towards women." 

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  2. 31 minutes ago, chet said:

    Hate is a strong word.

    I’ll go with loathe.  After a slow star I was rolling heading into the playoffs next week.  Now I have no fournette no Gordon and no blind bid $ left.  Conveniently my opponent has TJ. Maybe despise is better still.  (Pointing to my shirt as I type)

    But he deserves it. Probably deserved a game for the betting incident. Just a dumb player all around.

  3. 8 hours ago, The Frankman said:

    Of course you start him, the Vikes ran into a buzzsaw defense and compromised the gameplan to protect Cousins at all costs. What was surprising is all the time he was in to block for Cousins, he was never thrown an outlet unless it was a planned play. He was also benched for much of the 1st and 2nd quarter after the fumble.


    If you're considering not playing him against Green Bay, you better have some darn good RBs in tow.


    Like a kid who still pretends to believe in Santa because he's scared that if he admits that he doesn't the toys won't come, I want to believe you.  

    But there are a dozen no brainer starts over Cook:  Gordon, Kamara, Elliot, Chubb, Barkley, Mixon, Johnson, Fournette, Connor, McCaffery, Gurley, Hunt. 

    And a dozen more that I'd have a hard time putting him in over:  Mack, Ingram, Lindsay, Jones, White, Howard, Breida, Duke Johnson, Tarik Cohen, Michel, McCoy, Kerryon. 

    I'd put him slightly higher than Kenyon Drake.  Both players, in my opinion, should be between the two lists, but have done nothing this year for me to put them there.      

    I'm a huge Cook fan and, as I said, I want to share in your optimism.  But we're talking about a guy who has one good run all season...and even that was a disappointment (he should have scored on that 70 yarder).  Not to mention, we now have to worry about consequences of another fumble.  Until he actually produces I'm not sure I'm comfortable rolling with him in my lineup.   

  4. 2 hours ago, The Frankman said:


    I’m being honest, I’ve been on the Cook bandwagon throughout this awful year because I thought he had a great floor of 8-10 points. I also figured the upside would come as he got healthy. He’s my Rb3 in one league and Rb4 in the other - but I’d like to start him in both.  One goose egg can easily lose the week (and end the season in the playoffs). I might be better off with Kenyan Drake who also might get me a goose egg but has at least shown he has a ceiling that can help me win a week.

  5. my approach has usually been to wait out the first round of selling (usually happens around week 6-8). This way the price goes down as there are fewer buyers with premium picks left.  Then I’ll try to package a few keepers that I can’t use with 3rd or later picks for top 10 RBs or WRs. I typically try not to trade a 1st or 2nd as most years there are about 15 great players available and then it gets dicey with all the keepers.

    This year I jumped the gun and spent a 2nd on Dalvin Cook when I thought he was getting healthy so I mostly stayed out of the flurry of buying and selling that has gone on since then.  I did trade a 9th plus hunter Henry for gronk.  Rolling the dice that he gets healthy post bye week.

    To answer your actual question, yes buying is worth it.  Every year there are so many teams that sell, thinking next year they will dominate with all these studs.  Almost never works out.


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  6. 4 hours ago, Chaka said:

    exactly! Which is why he deserves negative points and a football to the groin for that performance.

    I’m confused, what was wrong with his performance?  He caught 8 of his 10 targets.  On one of the targets he didn’t catch, he was open downfield and foles took too long to get rid of it and it was nearly picked. His catches were very shallow routes and Foles telegraphed quite a few so he really didn’t have room to make a play.  He also had a great run that almost went for six and of course the throw.  This kid has talent and opportunity that ff’ers seem to be slow to recognize.

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  7. 2 minutes ago, Gally said:

    Keeper decisions have many factors.  For leagues with very little in terms of keepers like your example of only one keeper I typically treat like a redraft in terms of player value.  Where if you can keep many players (5+) then longevity and keeper value starts to play a little more into it.  Another big factor is if you can keep a player for multiple years vs just one and done.  That significantly affects how I perceive the value of a potential keeper. 


    As a few have stated above, you also need to factor in the likelihood of getting a similar or better player in the draft spot you must use to keep the player in question.  The easiest example if keeping Gurley at a 1st round cost when you have pick 1.12 vs keeping him if you have pick 1.01.  If you can likely get that stud (or equivalent) back due to your pick location then the value of the later keeper rises because you essentially get to "keep" both players. 

    Factoring in longevity is very tricky.  I’ll post more on my personal approach to this later on to see what others think.

  8. 1 minute ago, NeverEnough said:

    WHat kind of league won't let you keep them?

    We use a two round advance each year.  Hunt was taken in the 3rd and costs a first. Most of those other guys were first rounders last year.  My point was that simply scanning your roster and picking off the best players is a lazy approach, and it’s good to have a way to compare values.  Draft pick calculators work well.  The draft dominator works best. 

  9. 6 minutes ago, NeverEnough said:

    Or you're overthinking & over-complicating it? ;)

    Are you really gonna keep an Agholor over a Hunt? Hell no.

    He should have.  Picks 1-6 will go Bell, Gurley, zeke, Brown, Hopkins, Barkley in some order.  None of those can be kept in this league. You wouldn’t prefer those guys to Hunt?  His mistake was not considering what the draft would look like before making his decision.  Last year someone kept Mike Evans for 1.10 with the same thought process.  If you can draft that player, or a player of similar value at that spot, what value are you gaining by keeping them?

  10. 14 minutes ago, NeverEnough said:

    Keep the best player that is also the hardest to replace in the draft.



    That’s an extreme oversimplification, and a mistake that I see my league mates make every year.  Kareem Hunt gets kept for 1.07.  He would not have been drafted before 1.07, and might have fallen to the second.  Meanwhile Agholor could have been kept 6 or 7 rounds below ADP. 

    ETA: looks like I only read half your sentence.  “Hardest to replace” is a bit vague. Having a strategy to define value is very helpful.

  11. 1 minute ago, Wu-banger said:

    think you have to anticipate that most teams will keep an RB1 with 1st or 2nd Round value (outside of Hunt and Kamara who were probably drafted later in 17) so you must keep CMC for a 3rd to maintain value.... in RD 1 and 2 you could grab 2 quality players to go with CMC...and JuJu later. 

    Do you get to re-keep the player next year?  If so, Juju might have more value than you are crediting him with.

  12. 16 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

    You have to remember that you're not really keeping that ADP 20 guy at a 39th-pick cost. If every team gets to keep 1 player it's more like a 51st-pick cost, because 12 guys who would normally get drafted before pick 39 won't be on the board. That makes keeping the stud look a lot more attractive.

    Also, in general, the shallower the league (# of teams and # of lineup spots), the more it makes sense to keep studs, even at a lower incremental value. Keeping an 8th-round ADP guy at a 20th-round pick can actually hurt your team if that 8th-rounder is a borderline flex for lineup purposes, because having spent a keeper on him you'll feel obligated to play him even when he may not be the best bet.

    This is where the draft dominator app becomes really valuable.  I can plug in all the projected keepers and see, for example that Alex Collins will be a third round pick in my league. That is valuable info and hard to estimate yourself.

  13. 2 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

    Does position value come into play here?

    For example, an Ertz for a 6th is the better play than an Alex Collins for a 12 simply because of the scarcity of good TEs, right?


    I’d tend to assume any positional value would be baked into ADP unless you had some unusual league scoring.

    It would be wise to try to guess who others will keep and use that to help decide.  If everyone is keeping top tier RBs that will change the way the draft unfolds and can change the value of Collins 

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  14. Value, but I’d recommend using a pick calculator to help you gauge value.  Keeping Dion Lewis, a 6th round pick for a 20th round pick sounds like great value. But really it’s only worth a little less than a 6th round pick.  Meanwhile keeping David Johnson, a first round pick for a late second is worth a lot more since it would probably cost a 3rd to move up from the 2nd and draft him.

  15. On 8/20/2018 at 3:02 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

    I threw out offers of a 2nd in two leagues. Wouldn't pay a 1st either. 

    But I think everyone on the Titans gets a pass for playing in the exotic buggy whip offense. 

    I’ve offered a future 2nd and was declined without counter.  I thought it was a Solid offer, wouldn’t pay a first until I see production 

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