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Posts posted by oldmanhawkins

  1. 8 minutes ago, menobrown said:

    I'd list Doyle as a legit #1  but as a receiving TE I think he is comparable to Witten, and I mean Witten now at this stage of his career.  Solid hands, dependable, not scaring anyone.

    Ebron has had some ugly drops during his career but had a good second half of the season and eliminated drop issue during that time, was actually wildly efficient the second half of the season. Two opinions floated around for him playing better in second half. One was that once the trade deadline passed he was more relaxed and the other theory was that the birth of his son matured him.  Really not sure but I felt the focus should not be on fact he had a good 8 game stretch to end the season so  much as why was he so bad the first 8 games to begin the season, that's the outlier in his career and not the finish to the season. If you look at his career, especially considering how young he was entering the league and transition he had to make his career progressed nicely and on the pace you'd like to see.  Terrible confused looking rookie TE who was asked to do to much, growth in year two, more growth in year 3 and fantasy speaking a legit starting fantasy TE. Then he enters year 4 and the bottom falls out in first half of 2017 then despite being  a part time player he would go on to close strong. So he went backwards first half of 2017, otherwise spent his Lions career steady progressing.

     He had a bad camp last year. Can't recall injury, I think hamstring, but barely participated in camp. Add in he was in contract year, name brought up in trade rumors, whatever the reason he just flat tanked first half of last season but again other than that had been steady progressing. But the horrible optics on some of his bad drops and relative to where he was drafted and who he was drafted over a steady progression was not what people wanted to see and I think that along with his own immaturity made the situation in Detroit toxic for him and he badly wanted out. If there was ever a player who needed a change of scenery it's him.

    Now that I've had a day to mull over his landing spot I'd label it as low floor/high ceiling for fantasy purposes but I'd for sure take him over Doyle all day every day. Colts are only team in history of league to have two TE's catch 8 TD's in same season but to me NE is only team to ever have two viable starting fantasy TE's on same team at the same time. That could happen here but nothing I'd be counting on. Ebron is the one I'd invest.



    I think this is spot on, the steady progression, surprising early season struggles then the more surprising late season surge - but especially the low floor/high ceiling part.  His success is dependent on Luck’s health, his maturity, and his role in the new offense, all big question marks.  If everything comes together he could have a nice season.  I’m holding for now. 

  2. 7 hours ago, Da Guru said:

    Ebron should do well because the Colts have a true #1 TE in Jack Doyle.  With Ebron it has never been about ability although he does drop passes..it has been his maturity level.  When interviewed if you did not know any better you would think he is in 10th grade...and his Twitter account did not help him.

    Getting cut was probably a wakeup call so hopefully he grows up as a player..then deletes his Twitter.

    Is Doyle a legit #1? Asking because I don’t know.  Knew he had some bad games early in the year with fumbles and drops but end of year stats look ok from volume.  

     And what’s the problem with his twitter?  Just scanned and saw he posts pictures of his kid and him getting baptized.  Seemed harmless but maybe I’m missing something. 

  3. 1 minute ago, kutta said:

    I own Kupp and Jordy. I would take the Kupp side. You *might* get one more year of WR 1-2 out of Fitz, and *maybe* one year of WR 2-3 out of Jordy. So you're trading away a pretty sure WR2 with some upside for the next several years for the 2.06. Give me Kupp all day.

    Don't care about the second one.

    I'd take a chance of Blount scoring 12 TD's next year for the 4.12.

    My First impression was he sold low on kupp.  Though, he owns woods too and said he expects the rams and McKay to regress.  He has bell and DJ (win now?) but had little at WR. Other owner was in the dispersal and getting Kupp for the vets that won’t be around by the time his team is any good was big. I can see both sides.  

    I picked up blount.  Needed RB depth badly and our rookie draft only goes to 4.12 so what the heck.

  4. 3 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

    To answer my own question:


    Goff, Mahomes, Mariota, Winston

    I'm kind of surprised how quickly Dak's market dried up.  

    I was going to say the same about mariota. He stunk this year but I don’t think he was ever healthy.  And the coaching/young WRs didn’t do him any favors.  Still, he lead the team back a bunch late in games and is the only one in the group who has won playoff game. That suggests staying power.  I’d easily rank him first among this group IF we were ignoring situation.  

    All things considered i’d say:

    Goff, mariota, dak, mahomes. 

    Winston isnt close.  

    Probably underrating Dak bc he’s a stinkin cowboy.


    • Like 1
  5. 10 minutes ago, phowler13 said:

    Anyone plumbers/heating guys have a way to defrost frozen plastic pex lines that are not accessible?

    This is my current battle.

    I can’t access the lines without cutting a hole in the ceiling. I could cut the drywall behind the shower but I’m not sure if I’ll be able to get to the frozen parts.

     Instead, I ripped out the molding and used a hair dryer for awhile through the cracks.  Wasn’t directly on the pipes but it did enough to get it going again. 

    Should I do whatever is possible to get to the pex lines or can I trust that they will do  their job?  



  6. 10 minutes ago, Gawain said:

    Feels light to me as well, but would need to know what else he has on his rooster to see who he'd be dropping for Ertz.

    So, if you acquire a guy during the year, you can't keep him?

    The rule for free agents is ADP plus 2.  So if you picked up agholar, and his ADP is r7, you can keep him for a 9.  I hate that rule, should be at ADP tops because you already got use of the FA all season plus the draft is already watered down by the 40 keepers

  7. 1 hour ago, Gawain said:

    Do you have any potential targets already in mind? Trading goes in a flurry in my league starting about a week before our keeper deadline (Friday before the draft). Last year I added Keenan Allen for 5.07 and Nelly Agohlor. 5.07 turned into Danny Woodhead, so the depressed value certainly helps when you are a buyer.

    I’m just after picks.  I traded away picks in round 5-8 for guys like golden Tate and Jarvis Landry in a failed effort at a championship run. 

    Keepers aren’t due until August.  No one in my league really trades for keepers until things are more settled.  I should be able to move wentz for a haul (philly league) but I doubt anyone takes on the risk of sitting him half a season.

    perhaps I should be trying to move 2 or 3 keepers for one stronger keeper and leave the picks out of it.

    Might see what the kamara (costs an 8th) owner would want in return.  I’d give Michael Thomas (costs a 4th) plus ertz (6th). That might be light.

  8. 5 minutes ago, Gawain said:

    I have trouble trading in mine as well. I think that looking at the fairness of the trade through a dynasty or a redraft lens is the wrong way to determine what's fair.

    The calculation that I think you have to use is Value = (Player Traded) - (Pick Compensation Given) - (Value of Player Not Kept Due To Acquisition) + (Draft Pick Gained From Player Not Kept). This is different than dynasty, because in dynasty you don't lose a guy (besides the roster spot to use for free agent churning) who you could keep when you acquire another. Therefore, trading Ertz for the 1.10 is only giving the opportunity cost of who you would have picked at 1.10.

    In a redraft bringing in a player doesn't reduce your ability to have another player. That calculus is what makes trading so difficult and causes valuation issues between owners.

    It's easy to overlook the third factor for the trader and easy to overlook the fourth factor for the tradee. In your example, say you want to trade JuJu as a 12th round keeper and you want to get a third back. I have Mike Williams (for example) who JuJu would bump as a 14th round keeper. To give you a third for JuJu, I'm really trading (14th round pick) + JuJu FOR (12th round pick) + (3rd round pick) + Mike Williams.

    Maybe my example sucks, but to determine value, you have to subtract out the value of the player who would no longer be kept by your potential trade partner. That's where I find my biggest issues have been. It's also (in my experience only) a buyer's market. Guys tend to fall in love with "their" guys and it's tougher to make them move away from them.
    Using Mike Williams again, it's likely that someone who drafted him last year has some level of belief in his talent and can easily persuade themselves that he will be SD #1 WR by 2019. If that's what someone believes, it's tough to get them to pay anything for a modest value bump to a guy like JuJu.

    This is exactly it.  Except instead of an upside guy like mike Williams (that at least I could guess their interest in), the other team might even be planning on keeping mike Wallace or someone that I perceive as having little to no value. 

    Last year, a team that I thought had no significant keepers kept rejecting my offers without counter.  He ended up keeping gillislee and ty Montgomery right around their ADP.  Apparently he was very high on those two and thus my offers weren’t worth it to him.  

    We are all guilty of overvaluing our own guys, and that make these keepers for picks trades very difficult. I’d obviously prefer to keep my favorite four of the nine guys I have and deal the others but will instead have to shop all of them and deal whoever brings back fair value.  

  9. I’m in a 10 team keep 4 League.  Round drafted minus 2 each year.

     I’m loaded with about 9 potential keepers.  Wentz, Thomas, ertz, engram, juju, Dede, Collins, Dion, hogan all at great value.  

    Anyone have any advice on how to trade these guys for picks???  It gets tricky to find a Trade partner because they need to 

    a. Like the player

    b. Need a keeper

    c. Have some picks to spare

    d. Agree with you on their value 

    I can’t ever seem to get a fair offer


  10. 21 minutes ago, CalBear said:

    It's pretty clear. NFL Rulebook, rule 8, section 1, article 1. 

    Your own movement doesn't matter at all, nor does the position of your body. The movement of the ball is what matters.

    The scenario where you initially throw the ball forward and it gets blown backwards is still a forward pass. (Although, oddly, if you throw it backwards and the wind blows it forwards, it's also a forward pass).

    Thanks.  I looked at that earlier and was hung up on the “forward initially” part and wasn’t reading through part b.

  11. 8 hours ago, Steeler said:


    I don’t know why, but I think something feels wrong about that interpretation of the rules.  If you attempt a forward pass but the wind were blowing so hard that the ball travelled backward, it would still be a forward pass. If it hit the ground it would be ruled incomplete.  

    Meanwhile if you make a backward pass while running fast enough to make the ball travel forward, that’s called a forward pass?  Pretty sure that happens in rugby frequently and it isn’t against any rules.

    the answer that I keep hearing is that forward/backward is determined relative to a fixed point on the field.  But I didn’t see that in the rules. And if it is, why?

    sorry for the hijack, should have started another thread.

  12. On 12/4/2017 at 2:38 PM, zftcg said:

    That non-challenge was mystifying. The rule of thumb for when to challenge is weigh a) the likelihood that you'll win it, and b) the value of winning the challenge. That play was a slam dunk on both accounts.

    While I agree the ball went forward (and that a challenge was the correct move because of the stakes), I'm not sure the refs would have overturned it.  I thought it was clear Wilson attempted a legal lateral.  

    Neil deGrasse Tyson weighs in

    I think the definition of a forward pass says something about initially moving forward.  Would it matter if the lateral initially moved backward?

  13. 4 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

    I'm surprised this is even in question. Consensus FBG dynasty rankings posted within the past 35 days have Ajayi at #21, with Mixon, Cook, and Kamara all in the top 15. And that seems about right IMO. Now consider that Ajayi has another 8 games before another rookie RB class enters the league and pushes him further down. He is barely a top 25 dynasty RB right now, and that isn't worth much in my leagues.

    That’s Jason wood’s ranking, correct? And pre-trade?  I think most would place him above Murray and Martin on age alone. Lamar Miller over ajayi seems off as well.  Henry seems like a good comp.  So maybe not so far off from mixon?

    I agree with your take that Ajayi is on shaky ground due to the incoming class. And because of the trade, he needs to perform now or his value will fall even farther.  That’s my concern - but maybe others are optimistic on his outlook after going from one of the worst teams in the league to the best.

  14. 53 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

    I think it is pointing up for Ajayi.

    He may not get the same volume of opportunity with the Eagles (likely not) but the opportunities he does get should be of higher quality due to better offensive line and QB play with the Eagles than Miami. Also the Eagles coaches do not hate Ajayi (yet) Gase never seemed to be on board with Ajayi even after he rode him to a lot of wins last year. The Eagles sound more willing to use Ajayi as a receiver than Gase was, something that still somewhat confuses me.

    Maybe Jay has some real flaws as a receiver and in pass protection as stated by Gase, I really haven't seen hard evidence of that however, as I have seen him do well at those things at the college and pro level. The negative comments in this regard seem a bit more like sour grapes and perhaps Gase just covering his own behind. Only time will tell if those issues persist or not with the Eagles. Ajayi has a clean slate there and Pederson being a Andy Reid associate will use him as a receiver more as long as he proves capable.

    If you do not like Ajayi long term, just hope for him to have some big games in weeks ahead. If he does then maybe you can trade him for the price you are looking for if/when he does.

    Thanks Bia, I’ve followed your analysis of ajayi over the last two years and you have generally been spot on and always consistent in your analysis of him.  I don’t dislike him, I just don’t consider him a cornerstone dynasty player.  So, if I can move him for that, I want to do it.  I’m from philly and there are a couple homers in the league, so I’m unsure if I should throw some offers out now, or wait it out as you suggest.

    What kind of RB does he fetch now straight up?  How does he compare to Kamara/mixon/cook?  

  15. Is ajayi’s arrow pointing up or down?  

    I bought semi low (before foster was signed) and have been looking to move on from him.  Couldn’t get a top 4 pick in the off-season so I stood pat, thinking better opportunities would present themselves.  They haven’t, and I’m not thrilled with the fact he was traded (though the consensus in philly seems very positive).  

    What’s comparable RB?  I’d imagine it will be impossible to find someone with a top 4 first that would be interested

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