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Everything posted by rschroeder1

  1. League info: 12 teams, 17 roster spots, .5 PPR Positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE Draft type: Snake, my draft position is 10th of 12 Keeper price: one round higher than the previous year (this year will be two rounds). Can keep a player through their value as a first round pick. My keeper league took the 2020 season off, and we're now selecting keepers from 2019 rosters. Normally a keeper costs one draft round higher than they were selected the previous year. To account for the extra year, the price will be two rounds higher for this year only. My options, with their 2021 draft round cost listed (there's a 17th player missing, but assuredly he's a random guy I can't remember): Austin Ekeler (Round 1) Matt Brieda (3) Marlon Mack (5) Cooper Kupp (6) Devin Singletary (7) Justin Jackson (7) Devonta Freeman (9) Ito Smith (10) Dallas Goedert (11) Ryquell Armstead (11) Chase Edmonds (11) Darren Waller (12) Juju Smith-Schuster (14) Drew Lock (15) Can't keep Le'Veon Bell (Round 1 pick in 2019) Keenan Allen (Round 2 pick in 2019) The five that obviously rise to the top are Ekeler (1), Kupp (6), Edmonds (11), Waller (12) and Smith-Schuster (14). My inclination is to not keep Ekeler because I have a reasonable chance of getting him at the #10 spot in the draft anyways, but perhaps I'm valuing this in the wrong way. Appreciate any input on this!
  2. Not sure I totally agree here. For 2020, Claypool was #15 across the NFL in red zone targets (20 targets, 10 catches, 4 TD). Juju was #17 (19 targets, 16 catches, 6 TD). In regard to total YAC, the rankings go Juju 22, Diontae 26, Claypool 44. For YAC/R, all three performed more poorly compared with the top of the league. Juju 103, Diontae 84, Claypool 60. I think there's some variability to how this year plays out because Juju's role is quite different. Entering 2020, he was the de facto #1 receiver, and my anecdotal observation was that he was treated like that. I recall from the Eagles game, when Claypool went nuts, that Juju was frequently seeing double teams. I didn't watch every Steelers game, so that may have been a limited sample trend. But if we in the fantasy community consider Diontae the #1, it would logically follow that NFL defenses may be planning for Diontae, rather than Juju, as the #1. How Diontae reacts to that, how Claypool reacts to more attention, and where Juju slots in to that mix is something I can't possibly predict. But I don't think the results of 2020 are set in stone to repeat in '21.
  3. How does one define leadership and toughness? Tebow started for essentially one season - 2011. As far as I can tell, he did not sustain any sort of meaningful injury during that season. I believe Tebow had a reputation as a "tough" runner, but he led the league in fumbles and fumbles lost in 2011. He did engineer a number of come-from-behind wins in '11. But I can confirm as a Bears fan: sucking for the first 55 minutes only to pull victory from the jaws of defeat is not sustainable, it's not fun not watch, and it's not reasonable. It is fascinating which players are labeled tough and soft. Everyone knows about Cutler being "soft" when he failed to play on a sprained MCL, later confirmed as torn, in '10. Brian Urlacher sprained his MCL in the final game of '11 and essentially missed the entire offseason, and no one blinked. Perception is everything!
  4. For me it's a conscious choice. I fundamentally disagree with the way Amazon treats its warehouse staff and refuse to financially support the company. Not that anyone probably cares, but once you get out of the mindset of same-day or two-day shipping, it's not difficult at all to live without Amazon.
  5. There are a few cretins like myself who choose to not use any of Amazon's services. I know I'm in the minority, but there's no way I'm paying an annual subscription to watch a handful of NFL games. Thankfully, I find football on the radio to be a great alternative, especially when the weather is still nice in the fall. And the broadcasters are largely better on Westwood One, in my humble opinion.
  6. This simply doesn't make sense from a real-life football perspective. Why would they add another Chase Edmonds-esque player? Wouldn't adding a complement to him make sense? Honestly, I haven't seen anyone here arguing that Chase was going to be a three-down back. Far too often the offseason is made into a zero sum game for fantasy players' values. This is not an Edmonds vs. Conner question or whether Edmonds is THE GUY or not THE GUY. Why can't there be any plausible scenarios in between? Edmonds was on the field for roughly 46% of the team's offensive snaps last year (excluding his start against Miami and tossing out the Week 17 game without Murray). Is it really out on a limb to think that this could actually continue? Am I crazy to rank Kenyan Drake, circa 2020, as a superior RB to James Conner, circa 2021? Unless you believe that Conner is an upgrade over Drake, the question would be what happened in 2020 that would now downgrade Edmonds from his role. By one metric - take it for what you will - Football Outsiders rates him as one of the top five receiving backs in the league for '20. He was RB 25 for PPR and RB 28 for .5 PPR. I'm not sure where he ranks for 0 PPR. League size is relevant, but for a 12 team league and higher, he was already a usable player in '20. If we should expect a decrease in Edmonds' role, I don't think it's crazy to simply ask for the evidence as to why that might be.
  7. But there's an obvious logical flaw here: the same coaching staff and front office you are referring to actually brought about an increase in playing time and volume for Edmonds. As already detailed, his chances increased from 5.6 to 8.6 (roughly, see details in previous post), and his snap totals increased from 17/game to 31/game year-over-year. What you are arguing for is the opposite of the evidence we have at hand. Again, it is entirely possible that 2020 was Edmonds' ceiling in terms of usage - I'm totally open to the reasons as to why that might be. But it is not logical to argue a running back who was literally not used at all is going to now take volume, while simultaneously arguing that the running back who did see an increase in usage is going to see...a decline? Static usage? Simply put, why? I understand we're all trying to predict the future here, and your guess is as good as mine. But the very standard of logic you are using to posit gains for Benjamin can't then be turned against Edmonds.
  8. Who are the backups the AZ coaching staff and/or front office is fond of? Of the other four running backs currently on the roster: Eno Benjamin - 0 carries and 0 targets in 2020 (rookie season). DJ Foster - 2 carries and 1 target in 2020. Khalfani Muhammad - 0 career caries and 0 career targets since being drafted in 2017. Jonathan Ward - 0 carries and 1 target in 2020 (rookie season). Not trying to be confrontational here - you may be entirely right on Conner. I just feel like there's a lot of different arguments being made about Edmonds that don't get to what I think is the central question - will he see a volume increase in '21 with Conner as opposed to Drake? I don't see the evidence for a three-headed monster in '21 (draft notwithstanding).
  9. I won't argue how good of a real-life player Conner is. But I will vehemently disagree that signing or drafting a RB is "bad for value" of Edmonds. Before the signing of Conner, there were four other RBs on the Cardinals roster. Three of them have never registered a carry in the NFL. The fourth is DJ Foster, with 15 career carries and 31career targets. This is a real life football team. They were going to add a running back.
  10. Ignoring "official starts," which aren't relevant, Edmonds has for all intents and purposes started three games in his career. 2019 - Week 7 at NYG 2019 - Week 8 at NO 2020 - Week 8 vs. MIA He sustained an injury in one of those three starts. If that's a metric you want to use, that's fine, but that seems awfully selective. It's football. Injuries happen. In '19, Edmonds became the de facto started due to what I think we could fairly say was poor or inefficient play from David Johnson. Or Johnson was actually hurt for the NYG game and Kingsbury toyed with all of us. Regardless, Edmonds started the next game, too. The Cardinals traded for Drake when Edmonds got hurt and couldn't play. That's no slam on Drake and no statement on Edmonds. It's simply the facts. The question for '21 is what Edmonds' role in the committee will be. If you don't see any progression in his three-year career, that's fine. I see player progression based on the statistics year-over-year. I see increased usage based on the statistics year-over-year. The question then is whether he has hit his ceiling or whether we should expect continued uptick in involvement. Choosing Conner OR Edmonds is an entirely different question. I don't want to make this just about my league, but some leagues are deep enough that it's not either-or.
  11. With all due respect, I think you are incorrect here. 2019, the first year of the Kingsbury regime, was Edmonds' second year in the league. So it seems entirely possible that they actually did evaluate their own player on their own roster. As he hadn't been in the league "for years." Examining his stats as a pure back-up gives a pretty clear picture. In the six games in which he was Johnson's back up to start '19, he averaged 5.6 chances per game (carries and targets). Of course, Edmonds then had a start against NYG, got hurt against NO, missed three games, the Cards' traded for Drake, and Edmonds was not used m much in the last four games of the '19 season. Whether that was for health or a coach's decision, I will not speculate. As a pure back-up in '20, excluding the start against Miami and knocking out the 16th and final game in which Murray did not start, Edmonds' chances rose to 8.6. His "back-up" snap counts rose from 17/game to 31/game year-over-year.
  12. I guess I expected some RB competition and not a bottom-barrel back. I accept that Edmonds is not going to be a three-down back and another RB was coming in. But enough about the best case scenario lol. As for Eno Benjamin, I gotta say I don't see where he fits in here. Unless I'm missing something, his current NFL stats are: 0 carries, 0 targets. I can't fathom a forecast from there. In regard to Edmonds, I'll leave it at this. Something happened in '20. For some reason, his targets and carries shot up. For some reason, his snap counts increased from '19 to '20, to the point that in the second half he was averaging around 50% of the snaps. He had relatively the same coaching staff in '19 and '20. Their perception of him changed year-over-year. It's entirely possible he hit his ceiling in '20, but I'm willing to wager a bit on continued progression. For a 12 team league, he was RB28 in in .5 PPR for '20. The progression to RB2 isn't going to take much from there. That's the point I'm trying to make, however poorly I'm stating it!
  13. I guess I read the tea leaves a little differently. I'll reiterate for transparency that Edmonds is a likely keeper for me in '21 due to rosters rolling over from '19. The contract Conner signed, to me, indicates how the league as a whole values or predicts his play moving forward. Simply put, he could't get a clear-cut starting money. Of course that doesn't mean he won't be the starter or lead back in AZ, but it does clue us in to how the real football evaluators, flawed as some may be, view Conner. "Best case scenario" can mean a lot of different things to different people, which is fine. It was a given the Cardinals would add another running back. The question to me was whether the new RB would keep Edmonds in the role he held with Drake as the lead back, which I think we could reasonably say was a top-level RB3 for a 12-team league or a back-end RB3 for a 10-team league, or whether Edmonds' role could be expanded to the point he's a usable weekly RB2 for 12 or back-end RB 2 to top RB3 for 10. I believe the signing of Conner offers the path toward RB2 status (my keeper league is 12 teams, for the record). It's a unique case because of AZ's draft capital, with only picks in 1-2-5-7-7. For a team looking to compete in '21, the signing of a proven football player in Conner, whatever you think of him, seems to decrease the likelihood that one of the top rookie RBs is drafted. I would be much more worried about an Etienne or Javonte Williams coming in. That still could happen, but I believe the chances are now reduced.
  14. Edmonds is a likely keeper for me in a league in which our rosters are rolling over from 2019...so things are a bit wacky. I'm pretty happy with the Conner signing. Not sure what scenario could really be better for Edmonds, as I have not expected him to be a three-down back. With AZ's limited draft capital, hopefully this will have them out on the top 3 RBs that people keep grouping together. I would think Edmonds' touch share should increase in a timeshare with Conner as opposed to Drake; solid RB2 has been my hope all along and I'm liking the direction as of now.
  15. I have Juju as one of four keepers in my keeper league, but we took the 2020 season off for pandemic reasons. I didn't own Juju elsewhere, but having watched enough Steelers games the anecdotal feeling I got was that he never really felt involved in the offense. He had his big games, but you didn't get the feel that he's a focal point. So I was a bit surprised when for .5 PPR Juju finished as WR18. I realize it's not the top-of-the-league hopes some have held for Juju, but it gives me a bit of optimism upon his resigning with Pittsburgh. I was certainly hoping he was headed somewhere else, but at least for long-term it's a one-year deal. For 2021 purposes only, Ben's age concerns me, as does the Steelers' offense morphing into a passing attack that doesn't favor long gains. If there's a reason for optimism, my hope is that the continued development of Chase Claypool may take some of the double-teams off of Juju. He's clearly not a top WR1 that can overcome that, but if Claypool is enough of a threat, I think that may help Juju a bit.
  16. With a potential trade of Hicks coming up, I really can't see the franchise intentionally tanking. It really seems the powers that be have decided to build a league-winning offense around...Andy Dalton. At least the Bears aren't boring.
  17. I can't wrap my mind around the Fuller cut. While the possibility coming into the new league year made sense, the timing does not. Why would he be cut today? - If the goal is to clear up cap space, who is/are the FA targets? Several of the seemingly top OL free agents are already off the board before this move. - If more cuts come (Hicks), is there a possibility Pace and Nagy have convinced the McCaskeys to tank for a year? I honestly can't see it. - I realize the Wilson/Watson rumors are more clickbait than anything else, but part of me wonders if this Pace rearranging the face of the franchise with a future attempt at a Wilson trade in mind, whether it's cap space for Wilson himself post-June 1 (incredibly far-fetched, but I would believe Pace could believe anything) or finally offering a long-term deal to ARob to entice a Wilson-caliber QB. I'm not saying any of these moves would be rational, per se. But since we're talking about Ryan Pace, it seems in the realm of possibility.
  18. As a Mack owner, I don't know what to make of this. If he's healthy and has no long term effects, a big if, it seems like he could wrestle the lion's share of carries. Of course, Taylor may show more consistency with a year of experience.
  19. For totally selfish keeper purposes, I'm happy he's presumably departing from Pittsburgh. Any thoughts on the best fantasy landing spot? JAX or IND at the top of my list for now.
  20. No reason to believe the coach speak, and I also believe Edmonds is a better real-life player as a complimentary back. I think there's some reason for optimism heading into next year. For transparency, he's a likely keeper for me for next year. His yards per carry and yards per catch decreased by 0.8 and 1.2 (approximately) after Murray's injury at Seattle. I'm excluding the first Seattle game when Edmonds' touches ramped up after Drake's injury, and the Miami game when he started. Even with those big chunks out, he saw quite the drop-off. My concern is that his usage often defied explanation. There just seemed to be no rhyme or reason sometimes as to why he was on the field, or why he wasn't. His one start against Miami frustrated me in that Kingsbury essentially tried to use him exactly like Drake, which didn't seem very logical to me. Edmonds passes the eye test for me as a pass catcher and change of pace back. With one significant-ish injury in Murray's past now, I'm curious if his designed running gets curtailed a bit. For example, it seemed there was more of an emphasis at the goal line on Drake after the injury. A little more pass-catching work at the goal line would be a huge boost for Edmonds' fortunes.
  21. I might put Hines and Wilkins 1 and 2? Tremendous opportunity for Hill, but he's such a blank slate. I own both Wilkins and Hill and have to choose one (.5 PPR). I like Wilkins as TEN has been awful against the run, he figures to see goal line looks and I can't see one back taking all the work. With Hill, if ATL is behind right away, will he be involved in the pass game? I have no idea. I would have Hill as 3 if Julio is playing, but behind Snell if Julio is out.
  22. The NFL should follow its established rules for a situation like this. The NFL never bothered to actually establish protocols for this season besides making it up as they go along. So I do not think it Ravens should be assigned arbitrary punishment. Rhetorical question: should the Patriots have been punished for flying two planes to KC, including one plane with all people exposed to the virus, clearly exposing the non-infected to the infected? What sort of rational infection control protocol is this? The NFL's protocols are clearly focused on making money.
  23. If I may throw in two cents, perhaps another standard to judge such actions by besides ethics is quite simply: fun. What makes the league fun and enjoyable for all involved? I am commissioner of two competitive but ultimately easy-going leagues, and while being commissioner isn't really a lot of work, usually one or two items arise each season that require some adjudication. Applying this standard, the backroom deal of this trade fails to pass muster since it clearly impacted the league's playoff race, which detracts from the competitive nature of the league. Having played fantasy for long enough, I know by now that the margins of making the playoffs vs. not are often extremely thin. In my main league this year, I'm 3-7. The current playoff cohort includes two 5-5 teams. I lost a game by 2 when Saquon was injured in the second quarter, and lost a second by 3 when Tevin Coleman was injured at the start of a game. Every little bit counts - that's what makes the game fascinating. Don't mess with it!
  24. How are folks feeling about Edmonds tonight? I have the luxury of not needing to start him for once (I have Aaron Jones, Mike Davis and Kalen Ballage in my lineup this week) but feel unsure as usual. I think the big sticking point for me is that the odds of Edmonds scoring a rushing touchdown is extremely low. Murray is going to get most of the rushing TDs, and Drake is getting the spare carries inside the 10. In two straight competitive games - Miami and Buffalo - Edmonds didn't get the receiving volume that would make me confident heading into tonight's game. That said, I would expect an uptick in receiving work tonight.
  25. My only hesitation with Davis is that his decline in receiving volume has directly correlated with Samuel's increased touches. Combined with a stout Tampa run defense, I might lean toward Samuel. Incidentally, I have a very similar question, if you wouldn't mind weighing in: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/790214-which-rb-to-start/
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